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169 views26 pagesProbability Distributions
probability and stats
Uploaded by
Vivek ChauhanCopyright
© Public Domain
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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/ 26
mm h\/ 2f we
Cuapter 5
Probability Distributions
________ Probability Distributions
Heer
ue auaeatea eel ea
ig ce Tee wey ens
coat a eS See koe oe OS eS neces
is called atrial and the possible outcomes are known as events Or cases
For example{\i) Tossing of a coin isa trial and the turning up of head or tail ia an
events
Ui) Throwing a die is atrial and getting 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 o 6 is an event.
(6) Exhaustive events. The total number ofall possible outcames in any tral is known
as ckeutioe events op exhaugtve canes)
For example: In tossing a coin, there are two exhaustive cases, head and tail, 7
(vfs towing a die, there arw 6 exhaustive cares, for any one ofthe sx Theos may tam
ii) In throwing two dice, the exhaustive cases are 6 x 6 = 6 for any of the 6 numbers
from I to 6 on one die can be associated with any of the 6 numbers on the other die.
In general, in throwing m dice, the exhaustive cases are 6°.
(cf Favourable events or cases. The cases which entail the happening of an event are
‘said to be favourable to the evend It is the total number of possible outcomes in which the
‘specified eveat happens.
For example: (i) In throwing a die, the number of cases favourable to the appearance
ofa multiple of 3 are two viz, 3 and 6 while the number of cases favourable to the appearance
ofan even number are three, viz., 2,4 and 6
(ii) In a throw of two dice, the number of cases favourable to geiting a sum 6 is 5,
iz. 1,6); (8, Ds (2, 9; 4, 2% (8, 3.)
(d) Mutually exclusive events. Events are said to be mutually exclusive or incompat-
ible ifthe happening of any one of them precludes (.c., rules out) the happening of all others]
Le. ifno two or more than to of them can happen simultaneously in the same trial
For example:({i) In tossing a coin, the events head and tail are mutually exclusive,
‘since if the outcome is-head, the possibility of getting tail in the same trial is ruled out.
Gi) In throwing a die, all the six faces numbered, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 are mutually exclusive
‘since any outcome rules out the possibility of getting any other.
Cie) Equally likely events. Events are said to be equally likely if there is no reason !°
expect any one in preference to any other.)
2
wp.
(NO WA)
PROBABILITY OISTRIBUTIONS. 25
or examples) When ncard ia drwn fom awl shuld pack, anycardmayappenr
ithe drs tht the 52 iforen cases are ealy ely
in throwing» de all Uae fcr rt equally Healy come.)
Tadependent and dependent event wor mere vets are ait be independent
ice happening or nowhuppaning ofan ene fous mat Sepend fr nt afcead bythe
heppning or atrhappesng ef any thr: Othervie they esi wet depen)
or example: acai drtwn froma pack of wel sued cards and replaced bere
raving th ero cad he reel ie pond draw a andapentient ote feet Se, Hew
ihe ft car dow ot replaced, tet esto draw depts he fit
draw.
MATHEMATICAL (or Classical) DEFINITION OF PROBABILITY
Ifa trial results inn exhaustive, mutually exclusive and equally key cases and m of
them are favourable tothe happening of an «vent B, then the probability of happening of Ex
riven by
\vourable number of ent
Por PIE)= Exhaustive number of eases n
Note 1. Since the numberof case favourable to happening of Eis m and the exhaustive number
cane inn, therefore, the numberof canes unfavoursble to happening of E aren mi
"Note 2. The probability thatthe event E will not happen is given by
Unfivoursble numberof nace _ n=
‘Exhaustive numberof see
piget ie, PE)+PE)=1
Obviously, p andy are sot-negative and cannot exceed unity, tx, 0Sp5 1.05951
Note 3. IF P(E) = 1, Eis called a certain venti, the chance of ts happening is cent percent,
I{PAE) =0, then Eis an impovsibie event
[Note 4. fm cases ae fvoursble to E and m cases are favourable te E(k. unfavourable to E),
then exhaustive sumber of ensen =
Fa aan
We any that “odds in for of" are nm and “odds against Bare mn
ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLES.
Expatiple 1. A bag contains 7 white, 6 red and § black balls. Two balls are drawn ot
random: Find the probability thot they wil Both be white
Sol. Total number of balls = 7+ 6 + 5 = 1.
‘Out of 18 balls, 2 ean be drawn nC, ways.
aot) =e,
Exhaustive number of cases = "C,
Out of 7 white balls, 2 ean be drawn in
Favourable number of cases = 21
Required probability esta
153" 51 -
Re rrmcot or nance mares
Example 2 four cards ar dr fom pat of card Pind the probaly tha a,
for aiamond i) hrs oan cad of coc mut di re are to oped td ash
Sol, «card can be daa rom a pack o 52 cards in "Care
x 5150%49
Exhaustive number ofeasen = "C, = S2XS51X50%49
ree! "C= Gxaxax1 72707.
{0 There are 18 diamonds inthe pack and 4 canbe drawn tof them in ™C, way
1x 1211610
Favournble number of casen = Wc, = M9*12*11%10 |
ble number of ng, = Beet? ons,
Required probability ee
Boras ” Bares ~ 4165
(G2) There are 4 suits, each containing 13 cards.
Favourable number of cases = "Cj x #0, x 8G, 90, = 19% 196 19 019,
Required probability = SAB e uaa 2197
270725” 20625
(i) 2 spades out of 13 cam be drawn in "Cy way
2 hearts out of 13 ean be drawn in Cy ways,
Favourable number of exter = 10, + 90, 0 78 x 78
A
Aoi prdbaey Bn se
Eos "Doers
Example 3:A bo cnsins 0 tek eed aS
160, of which five are dra
at random and arranged in ascendir uitude (x, PS+PO=PS) > PHO.
5.6, PROBABILITY OF THE COMPLEMENTARY EVENT A or A® OF AIS GIVEN BY
P(A) 1-PA)
Proof. A and A are disjoint events, Alto AU A = S
PAU A)=PS)
= PIA) + PLA) = 1 Hence PKA) = 1 - PAA.
SAE EN AREA
eee ee OU a
SE :
[N\A he)
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS. aa
PAU B)= PIA) + AB)— PAB)
[Note 1. 1A and B are two mutually dajoit events, then AB = 9, an that PAB
2 AUB) = P(A) + PB).
[Note 2. A.B) ie alan writin ax PUA +), Ths, for mutually diay ents A and 8,
RAY B)= FA} PR),
ao writen a POA
An
IF A, B AND C ARE ANY THREE EVENTS, THEN
Pa A TEXTO0O OF HOMERS MATH,
5.7. FOR ANY TWO EVENTS A AND B, P(A © 8) = P(B)— PAB)
Sn
Proof, Ao B= (p:pe Bandpe Al
Now © 9B and AB are disjcint sets and ~
Gapoans ees |
- PLA AB) LAN B)) = PB) a)
5 PRA) + PAnB)=PB) | Ree
= PAA \B) = PB)- ANB). Sn Aon
Note. Similarly, it can be proved that VA = B) = PYA)~ MAB).
5.8. IF BCA, THEN (0 P(A
P(A) — PB) _ (1) PB) 5 PLA)
Proof. When BA, Band AB are disjoint and their union is A.
= BuAnB=A
= PIBU (An By) = Pra)
= PB) + PAN B)= P(A)
= PAnB)
Now, if Bis any event,
then O PAUB)=PIAU(A 1 Bll = PA) + AB)
= PA) + IPRA OB) + AM B)- PA By
PAA) + PUA 9B) (An BY PUA mB
Ar Band AB are disjoint
= PAA) + PB) Pan) =
. be AnBvAnB=B)
POAC BU 0) = PUA) + PAB) + P(C) - PAB) - PAB AC) - PICA) + PAS BO)
Or
P(A + B +) = P(A) + PCB) + P(C) ~ PLAB) - P(BC) ~ PICA) + PLABC).
roof. Using the above Art. §.10 for two events, we have
PAUBUC)=PIAUB) SC}
AUB) + PC) PUAWB) OC)
IPA) + PAB) - PAB) + PC) PLAC) BNC,
[By distributive law]
= PAA) + PLB) + PIO) PAN B)- (RANCH
TRBAC)-PIADC)A (BOON [By 5.10)
= PUA) + PIB) + PC) PIAA BI BANC)—PABACI+ BARB AC)
fe An @ABaC=AnBacl
: = MA) + PB) + PC) PAA B)- PBC) PACHA) + PAB AC)
Te ANC=CoAl
or PAs B+ C)= PIA) + PRB) + PIC) ~ PAB) — RBC) ~ P(CA) + PLABC).
5-12 Ay Ay A, ARE n MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS, THEN THE
\LITY OF THE HAPPENING OF ONE OF THEM IS
PUA Ag Un UA) = PUA, + Ag oe Ay) = PUA) + PUA) + = + POA)
Proof. Let N be the total number of mutually exclusive, exhaustive and equally likely
ceases of which m, are favourable to A,, m, are favourable to A, and 80 on,
Probability of currence of vent Ay = KA) =
Prabbliy of ccurene of eent A, = Pia) = 22 | as
Probability of occurrence of event A,
‘The events being mutually exclusive and equally likely, the number of eases favourable
tothe event
Aye Be
orAyer a. Of Aism,+m,+...#m,
Probability ofotuene font ofthe een hy At A Ay ¢ Ay A
Mitmetoctm, om me em
N N’N N
PIA) + PAD +. HAA, | Using (2)
Note. The student should sot get confused with Theorems 5.10, 5.11 and 5.12. Theorems 6.10
‘and 6.11 are for ANY events (mutually exclusive or not) whereas Theorem 51 i fer mutually exclusive
‘evonts ee
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS,
251
‘A TEXTBOOK OF ENGINEERING MATHEMATCg
250
—_—-
ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLES —————
sours ABE, Dare 181
ee te id the chance that oe Sp
Example 1. ina given race, the odds in
15, 1; B respectively. Assuming that a deod heat i
‘hem wins the race.
‘Sol. Let, Py. Py, Py be the probabilities of winning of the horses A. B, C, D respec
uvely ;
‘Since « dead heat (in which all the four horses cover same distance in same time) is not
possible the events are mutually exclusive.
Odds in favour of A are 1:3)
Similarly,
1
PH=Pi+ Pet Pst Pea gt
ple 2. A card is draun from a well-shuffed pock of playing cards. Whot is the
probhility that its either a spade or an ore?
Sol. Let ‘As the ovent of drawing a spade
B =the event of drawing an ace
and
A and B are not mutually exclusive
[AB «the even of drawing the ace of spades
8 4 1
4 PA)= 5B) = 5, RAC B)=
4
PAorB)=PA)+ PB)-PAnB)= 344-2
wea
5.13. CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
pe ce ney
ppening of an event E, when another event E, is known to
‘The probability ofthe hap
have already happened is clled Conditional Probability and i» denoted by PCE TE).
‘Mutually Independent Events, An event E, is sid tobe independent of an event E,
a
mis
if
PRYE,) = PE)
‘cr, ifthe probability of happening of B, is independent ofthe happening of E,-
‘5.14. MULTIPLICATIVE LAW OF
sans PROBABILITY (Or Theorem of Compound Prob-
‘The probability of simultaneous occurrence of two events is lit
one ofthe events multiplied bythe eaitonl probate the ste te he ek
PUA B) = POA) « POBIAY
where PUVA) represents the conditional probability of o ;
event A has already happened. ae ee ote ms
Note, PVA. B) is alo written as AB,
Thus RAB) = PXAD « PABVA),
Cor, 1. Interchanging A and B
RBA) = P(B) x PAB)
PAB) = PIB) x PNB) IL
Cor. 2 If A and B are independent events, then PXBVA) = PB)
PYAB) = PA) = PCB.
Generalisation. If A, Ay A, are n independent events, then
PA, Aged) = POA) POAg) © one x PLA
9 Ifp is the chance that an event will happen in one trial then the chance that it
warned
Dp np. (r themes) = pf.
Cor, 4. If ey Py p, are the probal
I eee pen aera
mean aioe
ms he ae ae ne et ch hyn
cons. ram ZA2B pay. PACES
Car. 6 Theorem ot Tt! Probabiy
ern By Ete aca cv and cau hn fr any vet A, we
ities that certain events happen, then the
"1 =p, and, therefore, the probabil-
have
A) = XS) PUVE,) + PUE,) PUVE,) + PIE,) UAE)
LLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLES
Example 1. A problem in mechanics is given to three students A, B, C whose chances of
stung tare 2,11 rapt, What the patty hath problem le led i A TEATBO0K OF EHGNEERIND MAEM,
me “ebook wl! be favourably reviewed by three inepe
cee 2 Ph le ey Wik the oblate r
@ majority will be favourable ?
‘Sel. Let the thre eritics be A, B, C- The probabilities Py, Pz» Py of the book
favourably reviewed by A,
‘The probabilities that
5.2 Ja
7 77 aT
‘Anmajority wil be favourable if the rovews of at least two are favourable,
(UA. B,C all review favourably, the probability is
Bede
PET Ms ‘Pp,
W164, B review favourably and C reviews unfovourably the probability is
54,4. 00
St ppt)
(ili) If A, C review favourably and B reviews unfavourably, probability is
| e-pap,
Gi) IB, € review favourably and A reviews unavourably, the probability is
10-Pyep,
ence the probability that a majority willbe favourable is
80, 80, 45 , 24 _ 209
34a * 48 "349" 340 "348
xample 3. A can hit «target times in 5 shots; B times 4 shots: C twice in 9 shot.
They fire a volley. What is the probability that at least two shots hit # pe Se a
Sol. Probability of A's hitting the target =
Probability of B's hitting the target =
Prailiyof Citing he angst =
Foret lent wo hit, we my tve
(A.B, Cll th reheat for wih
4.32.0
54°36
(i), tn targeted Cale hpi whc
xfa-
v
bsgimmsrviciermumonsl a
ii) A, C hit the target and B misses it, the probability for which
Dt jetede’
(aera a
jv) B,C hit the target and A misses it, the probability for which is
(a4) 2
U5)"4"3°5
12 86
~ G0 * G0 "60" 60” 60
Example 4.4 has 2 shares in a lottery in which there are 3 prizes and 5 blanks; B has
3 shares in a lotery in which there are ¢ prizes and 6 blanks. Show that A's chance of success
eto Bs as 27°35,
Sol. A can draw two tickets (out of + 5 = 8) in *C, = 28 ways.
‘A will get all Blanks in °C, = 10 ways ‘Acan win a prize in 28 ~ 10 = 18 wa
9
jence A's of succers
Hence A’s chance x
B can draw 3 tickets (out of 4 + 6 = 10) in C, = 120 ways; B will get all blanks in
"c= 20 ways.
B can win a prize in 120 ~ 20 = 100 ways,
Hence B's chance of ruccess =
‘Ns chance : H's chance
Example 5. A and B throw alternately with a single die, A having the first throw. The
person who first throws ace is to win. What are their respective chances of winning *
2
6
‘The chance of not throwing an ace with a single die = 1 —
IA i to win, he should throw an ace i the fist or third or Sth. throws.
IEB is to win, he should throw an ace in the second or fourth or sixth, ....., throws.
‘The chances that an ace is throw inthe fist, second, third, throws are
xe 28 1) 8) 2
«Heels ole
1
‘Sol. The chance of throwing an ace with a single die =
Bes chance ™,
A TEXTBOOK OF ENGREERING Harvey
wll ahufled pack until an ocg
ple Cards ar deal on Pr dell before the first ace
show Th the probability that exaely
451-160 - nh)
@.51.50.49 =
ae pe evento ring n on ace cars a4 B the event draing a ei,
the in bth dro
Consider the event A
‘oars ea be drawn out of 2 cada in *C, AVS
a Exhaustive cane = Cy
‘oon ace cars can be drawn out of cards in MC, ways
"Favourable esse =O,
ST as! 62 alin!
nave 8c 0, = etl aH
$81. (52 — nN = n950 0449 X48)! | (62—RXB1= X50 ny49 9)
- (48 —n)!, 52.51.50. 49. (48)! 62.51.50.49
Consider the event B
mreards have sready been drawn inthe rst draws
Exhaustive cee = °C, =52n; Favourable cases =“C,
4
PDA) =
‘Regd. Probability = PLA). PUB/AD
(62~n¥B1—n\60-nk49~n) 4 _ 4{51—nX50—nh49~n)
52.51. 50.49
() An wen contains 6 red and 10 black balls. Eaght of them
placed net
‘alls?
nat two specified individuals siting
urn, What
the chant that the latter thes cantains 2 red and 6 Bi
SB. A party of n persons sit at round table. Find the aks
text to each other
A fivesigured number is formed by the digits 0,1, 2, 3,4 without repetitin), Find the pro
Jb
ity ehat the number formed is divisible by 4 22,
23, A committee consists of9 students two of which are fo
A TexTEGOK OF ENGINEERING war
8 100% teunreg
newspapers AB Care published in wity aad survey of ers indicates the toying
20% read A188 read B, 14 read C,
8 road bots A and, 7 rad both A and
4% read both B and C, 2% rad all he three
tr the probability that he reads none ofthe papers,
dent Tatrchenenstedvingitore 321 Ly
fire tent Thi tay
234
What i the probability thatthe pablo will be slved ?
12, Acan hit target 3 times in 5 shot 2 times in 5 ots and C8 times in shot. They Sieg
Walley. What i the probably that wo shots a atleast eo shots hit the target >
13, Thrweyroupe of children contain rxpertively 3 gee and 1 boy: ? wel and 2 boys Twang
bum: One shld is selected random from each group. Show thatthe chanee that the thes
For » person chosen at random,
1A problem is statistics in given
sete comin 2 bn
14 Suppoe that 8 mst 10 at 25 we ou of 100 are gud orators. Aung tha he
Srerqal nantor meno wane, he pet of os oa rats
18, Ahagentin 10a to whch rete ad ve Bak Ther alse den
Tandos the bg at he pay
Ur the re eae fier or tr ale rf sae cur,
i) he alee tthe
“iis: Sagi spore er ol ving 7a 48x pran new 5)
Esto i eo Fad te pati hat oe ef he params wl be e 3 yea
sce
{472 A old carton in a pharmacy shop is found to contain 60 caprules and 180 tablets. Half o ap-
Sth bis ae ae ate Pn th rt that to pa rds os
tartan tenga os ps
18 Ahad sharin a tery whore ther are 9 pias and 6 Munk. Basen share in asthe,
Sere teen jon ie ama as Shr that Aha site chanc ef ang ps
1 A. and C. i oer, tot col. Th ftom throw a ead win HA starts fd thi
reer char flag
20, (a) A speaks trth in 76% cases and B in 80% eases. fm what percentages of cases are they likely
to contradict each other in stating the came fact?
(6) A poir of die is toate twice. Find the prbabilty of scoring 7 pints (nce, i) a east once
dd tee KOK. Dee 2008)
21, (a) Two persons A and B toes an nbiaed coin alternately on the understanding that the fist
Before ag erro alperpe tater ect
Foe tetany terse op rece
me en ee ea
iy of tavag ese scape hee eed en ay Wt th re
A balls transterrud from the box Ato the box B, then a balls drs from tne bow B. Pad tht
probability that itis whi
im Ist year, three from 2nd year and four
dom. What isthe chance thet
trom drd year: Three students are to be removed nt re
the three students belong to different clasaes,
aL.
PRORABLITY DISTRIBUTIONS 2s
(Wea belong to the same elas ad thi the dierent class ane
the thee behing othe same ass?
Five men in a company of tory are grisdaten. If men and:
i Ue prababiiey that
i they areal radstes?
PIA) =0.3, PB) = 04, AC) = 08
PAB) = 008, MAC) =028, PABA C= 0.08
HAG BC) 2075, then shone that 023 NBC) < 048
For wo events A and B, let MA) =04, PB) =p and NA JB) = 08
(G) Fond p me that Aad Bae indopasent erecta,
iy Foewhat value ofp are A and B are mucually exclusive?
‘Atsbend and wife spponrin an iateevinn fr te yacanine inthe sume pet, The probit of
ed ot of 20 ot rand, what.
nba eto nando wit ston i Wha he probit
(bath of them wil be alate, (ony one of them wil be selected, and
i) mone of them ml be elected?
“Two dice are ante once Find the probably of geting an even number onthe fst de
‘There are two bag. The ist bag contnna 5 white and black balls and the sco hg contaie
SS whive and black ball. Two balls are drawn at random from the first hag and itt noting
thir colours put inte the second bag. Then tra balls are drawn fom the sewn ba ind the
probably that the Halls drawn are white and black
‘A.porw contains 2 silver und 4 copper coins. A second purse contains 4 silver and 3 coppee coins
‘fe coin i plled out at random fom one of the to purses what tthe probaly that a
sliver ein?
‘Aman wants to marry a gl having qualities: white complexion—the probability of getting such
‘girl sone in twenty handsome dowry.—the probability of geting this one i ity westeraised
manners and etqueties—the probability eee ix one in hundred. Find out the pobobiity of his
{etting married to such a wel when the possession of these thrwe attributes independent
‘A class consist of 80 students, 25 of chem are girls and 55 bos, 10 of them are ich ané the
‘emaining por, 20 of ther are fair compleaioned. What is the probability of selecting far
fomplexined rich gi?”
OF the stunents attending a lecture, SO% coukl not see what was writen on the board and 40%
‘ould not hear what the lacturer was vying Mos unfortunate 30 fl ts bath cl these eateries,
‘What isthe probability that a stodeat picks at random wa able to see and hear satiate
‘The probabilities of A,B,C solving « problem are 3, = and © respectively, Wall the thee try to
solve the problem simultaneously, find the probability that exactly oo of thean wil sls i
Astudent takes his examination in four subjets 5 He estimates his chance of passing ia
3
v
subjects, What is the probability thatthe qualifies *
For any two events A and B, prove that
PAN BS PAIS AU BIS A) + PIB)
4 5 2
eas 4 in vas § and in Sas 2 To qualify he must pass inc and a least tee other
Siwp g = to qualify he must pass oF ot Le
— 2
[A TEXTBOOK OF EN
et
Ce
37. Asset aes bination fa uF LS. He etna hie hey Pnoaamuy o1srRaUTION
im SMS. pave's THEOREM (M.D.U, Dec. 2010)
§setinS an 5 Toei. bemoan Pandan
were dng dan
‘js hl spoil it ei 1, Be Bp rly ead hana os ah A) 0 =
Be oe ayo treetnot aie siete arenes ig dinsdon portaits ne beng Miny oes mE TO re
Caaty is Eane inate mer sane arm cd nae hae ohne nny, Sigal ns ha
Sallue cecoet ry ae
PE
S reveaes
Proof Let § be the sample space ofthe random experiment.
‘The events E,, Ey. vw , being exhaustive
38. Adie throw thee timex Bivens A and B are defined as below
A appears on third throw
'B: and 8 appear respectively on fist two throws
Fhe the probably en that has already cecred
Nirdelrang fos thsireB tinge 218, ed LLG mtg
‘Aperon has undertaken cntrctin jah Th proabilites ae O68 that there ge SHB VE om VE,
isha mars srt a na Oct eto alana be kes
minor eke Bara a cite caoeccey
fontruction ob will be completed oo tie, Bur eter E eC ee
Answers - PAA) @ AOE) PAN By 4. + PA,
=PE)PAPE,) + PEPE) +
TR )PIVE,)
L aad w? ase
7% :
n eae, of t 2 Pare) a
35 on Now
6 re
© ae ns i8
6 1°20 = st Wsing (1)
12 045,068 14.0575 4 Gay B ci) 1 DPE pan
i i
1 2 nt 21 Note. The significance of Bayes Therein may be undersion! isthe following manner:
a : 7 AE) is the probed ference
n4 vet Aas cccred With thier, the pray PE changed te WEVAL Haves esr,
20. (a5 ow ee wot 21,0¢)2,1 22,2 Shales us trevalate PBA all the ME) andthe onda prbaites PAM) ae Rasen
va
1 yy i8
Boog aolwSwd nod wk MLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLES
oe fan's Example 1.4 bag Xcontins 2 white and 9 red bails anda bag ¥ contains 4 hte and
mw 3 wo2 ard a2 an Ped tis draton at random From one o the bags and found toe Pad. Find the
7 9 probability that it wax drawn from bag'Y.
on 28 31, 0.000001 7 Sol. Let the bli dravn fom bax X; the balls drawn from bag
2 a and A: the ball ised.
us ne We have to find PEJA. By Bayes Theorem, 4
"90 PEDPAE,) t 4
i PE/W = —PEIME) __ |g ii
wo} FERED * RESRAE,)
"6 410.488, mR ae
_ ———__—_—_— Since the two bags are equally likely tobe selected, INE,) = PUE,) = 1
Also PUNE,) = Pla red ball is drawn from bay X) = 2
‘
'
_ ree ee CO [ATEXTBOOK OF ENGINEERING
Marie
7 Mais
PVAM,) = Pla re ball is drawn from hag Y) = 5
1s
i 2X9
From 2h we have PEYA)= 7h g fp
2%5'2%9
eample 2.1.0 bl factory mochines A, B and C manufacture respectively 254
and 40% of aoe. Of thei outpa 9, eon 2 percent are defective bolts A bl
si random from the pret ani ound tobe defective. What ¢ the probability thar
‘manufactured by machine BP (KUK Dee 2010, V0
Sol Let BE, and E, denote the events that a bolt selected at random is manuf
bythe machines A Hand Creapetvely and let H denote the event of ta being deuce
PAE, = 0.26, PUE,) = 0.35, PXE,) = 0.40 x
‘The probability of drawing a defective bolt manufactured by machine Ais
= 0.05 * : SBR
Similarly, PUHV/E,) = 0.04 and POHVE,) = 0.02
By Baye's Theorem, we have
PRAY = yea IT Eee a
PE )PTWE,)+ AE, PUM, + PE, PE)
0.850.084
025x005 + 035% 008+ 040x002
Example 3. The contents of urns [I and ILI are as flows:
Twhite, 2 black and 3 red balls,» 3» ¥
white {black and J red balls, and
A white, 5 black and 3 red balls. 3
One urn is chosen at random and tuo
What is the probability that they come from
0.0140
0345
balls drawn. They happen to be white and red
urns L Hor IIb?
(KU 2005),
Sol. Let urn lis chosen; E,: urn I is chosen; E,: urn TI is chosen
and A: the two balls are white and red.
We have to find PUEYA), PIEYA) and PLEA.
Now PIE,)=PE,)= RE, 1
3
POAME,) = P (a white and a red ball are drawn from ura 1) = “CL* “C1 2}
“G8
i
ran
26)
proaamuiry isrmpunons
By Bayes Theorem, we have
Peppy a
PEYVA)= TEDPAE,) + PE PINE, ) > REDRATE,) v2 he
: a"
Simitarly WBJAY = BE EZAY= 55
—————>= Exerc is 5.2
la) Two urns contain 4 white, 6 blue and 4 white, 5 blue balls respectively. One of the urns it
‘iscted ac randem ena ball drawn from i Ihe ball drawn se white, ind the peobablty
‘hat tie drawn fromthe
fest ora
Ui second wa.
(6) OF the cigarette stoking population, 70% are men ard 30% women, 10% of these men and
‘worocn sme WILLS’ What isthe probability
fa person seca stoking 8
(a) Three urna contain 6 red, 4 ack; 4 red, 6 black and 5 red, 5 black bas eepectively, One of
he urns is selected ut rendom ad bal x draws from it Ifthe ball drawn i red, find the
Probability that i is drawn from the frst urn (BDU Dye. 2010)
(oy There are tree bags: fist containing 1 white, 2 ed, groen ball; second 2 white, $e, 1
sr balls and third white, Ire yeeen balls Two bale are drawn from a bag chosen at
tom. They are found te be 1red and 1 white. Find the probability Uhat balls x0 drawn,
me rom the second bag (MDW. Dec 2008)
3 Afacory has two machines A and B. Past record shows that machine A produced 60% of the
ems of output and machine & produced 40% of the tems, Farther, 2% ofthe itera produced by
machine A were defective and 1 produced by machine B were de‘etive. Ifa defective item
{drawn at random, what isthe probability that t was produced by machine A?
‘An insurance company insured 2000 scooter drivers, 4000 ear drivers and 6000 truck drivers
‘The probability of accident is 001, 0.03 and 0.15 respectively. One ofthe insured persons meets
tin accident. What i the probability that he is @ scooter diver? fepw 20061
‘Accompany hax two plants to manufacture scoters. Plant { manufactures 70% of scoters and
plant H manufactures 30% At plant 1, 80% of the scooters are rated standard quality and at
plant 1, 90% of the scovters are rated standard quality. A scooter 1s chosen at random and i
Found tobe of standard quality. What is the chance that t has come froma plant 1?
In abl factory, there are four machines AB, C, D manufacturing 20°, 157%, 25 and 40% of
the total output respectively. Of their outputs 5, 4%, and 2, bathe same arder are defec
‘ve bolts. A bolt ie chosen at random fromthe factory's preduction and is found defective, What
's the probability thatthe bolt war manufactured by machine A or machine D”
(a4 U, Bee. 2008)
7. A dctor ist vista patint, From the past experience iis known thatthe probabilities that Ds
eae)
will come by trai, bus scooter or by other means of tramport are respectively 35 2
1
‘The probabilities that he will be late are 47 and the comes by tain, bus and seanter
reepectively, but if he comes by other means of transport then he wall nat be late. Whee he
{rrlven, hei late: What i the probability that he com by tran”
‘Arman is known to speak truth 3 out of 4 times. He thrones adie and reports that tsi, Fing
the probability Uhat sis actsaly six A FOXTBOOK OF ENONEENNG Nahe
ies
A survey was conducted to find the supplies of the consumer durables fr the amy
found that Ure three suajr companies A, 8 and C have market share of 36%, Ze
respectively out of which 2h, 1 and Si ae ot upto the stitution, A Consumer by
Safed dame wih Whe wth probity a mah be om thee SB
LDU. May
10. iy exaiining the chest Xray, the probability tht TB. is detected whea a person i wae!
ules 0.9, The prbsbihty thatthe deter diagnoses incorecly that a person ag
the basis of Xray is 0.001 In w certain sty, 1 ia 1000 persons euler from T 5. Aa
elected at random nad is dignesed to have TB. What i the chance that he actasly fot
11, Assume thatthe chasce of patient having & heart attack i 40%. Its also assumes
Imeitaon and yoga curse reduce the risk of hear flack by 30% ond prescnptige a8
drug reduces its chances by 297. Ata ea pie can choose any one af the tee pet
qual probabilities, Tes giver thi after going though ane ofthe two options the pauses ons Sh
at random suffer a heart attack. Find the probability that the patient fellnged goed
Sediation and yoga. vets
‘There ure three coins, One i a two beaded enn having head on both face), anther
gin tt sup headeT94 othe ine did a iced Oc of eae a
shen nating meas Nt gomesan yon era
Tena
® ini
» wad wn
oS of
a
i
& oat o2ss
x
o
a wt
eo
5.16. RANDOM VARIABLE
1th name vals rome by toon,
te alee the rsa of some dane an,
reactor iS ety peda usec ese
mas lets called anc cob o sete eis
Random variables are denot Hi
ail, aes are dented hy cpt ater, aay fos tie et en
Costnsous and Discrete Random Variables
( guninuous random variable is one which can assume any value within an iter
e,, all values of a continuous seale, For
als (i he heights af grouse eeanm oe the weights ink) aa group of nd
Addiservte random variable is one which
() the number of beads in 4 tosses
‘assume values other than 0, 1, 2,3,4
G2) ho number of aces in a draw o a
variate as ican tae he vale 0,1, ony, OT FO 8 Wel sed deck isa rads
£28 assume only isolated values. For example,
of coin is w diserete random variable as it esnat
263
PROBABNITY DISTRIBUTIONS
proeapurry osstmiaumions
5.17; (a) DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
‘Let a random variable X assume wales X25. soon With probabilities 2,
_ p, respectively, where P(X =s))=p, 20for each x, and p, +2, +Py+
it spells out how a total probability of
the random variable.
1 is distributed over several values
5.17. (b) CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
‘Let X be a continuous random variable taking values in the interval (~, »), Let fix) be
1 function satisfying the following properties:
@ Asis integrable on (=, =)
(Gi) fle) 20 foe all x in (=, =)
(i [fesrde =
‘Then fix) is called the probability distribution (or density) function (p.d.f) of the
continuous random variable X.
‘The probability for a continuous random variable X to fall in the interval [0,6] is
Plask 4
sit. foot
Or ksh + 2k Sk E+ 26 Tho k=
WHS 180 Oks oo
+ t
0
GPR <6) = PX =O) PH ® D+ oa + POH)
<0 +hs 2s 2k ake
X26) = PX =6)+ PK =7)
=O 6 TH ak
PG i 4
Example dn. lottery, m tickets are dea at a time out of tickets numb
Fen ene feutts ofthe sum ofthe nates cn Me tickets dren, "4 oy
LDU. Ma
Sol. Let X denote the number on a ticket then X assumes viawes 1, 2,3... y
ress wd
2015
wpb ding keto a est
+ Values of X x 2 ta
1
1
veK=x9 a
- ew= Das
4
niet tenia?
1
cae)
A nas aot
oe a
tthe numbers on ham kt ht hr
2c then Un ehectel vale of ha sum tabasco ves
Mgtntacta
Eos. SBM
min +1)
2 2
’xample 6. [s the fiction defined as follows a density funetion?
af) 0
wa={e otherwise
Y.s0, fund P(E Ns 9
Sob. fa) > Ofor every in ¢ (LDU, Dec, 2008
9) an
Jpovae= Prides [nara
: = fLoaes er are,
apstweome
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
269
a density
jrements for a density function, therefore. (0) &
ol]
30 — 0,135 = 0 2
continuous random variable with prot
Sinee (4x) satisfies the reaui
srability density function Bivens
fe, if OSx<2
fisy=1 kh, if Bsx<4
kx +h, if 45x<6
Find kan mean value of X.
‘Sol. Sines total probability = 1, we have
[rea
- [rraace pede ards
a [fae ffabdes fens robnde
a tft
= af | santas [adem] 1
Ke 2—0)+ 2k (4—2) + (1B + Bly — (8h + 24)
Th Ak + 8k 16ke= 1
vu
~5]- fe
shah
8 k
=#(8)}+4002»-£cas2y+
(3) (12) ~§ (452) + 8k(20)
(a)
= 24h [ATEXTOOOK OF ENGINEERING
a
Example 7. The density fiction
Find ()k (a) mean (i variance
Sol. (9 Since toral probability
ronan orihte Xi give by fs)
oan deviation bout the meg
2 firennde=t fe
(1) Mean deviation sbout the mean
Minide= x -1\/eade
= fle-alpiaes fl e-alreiae
=f-ndea-necsfe-n
baw
‘Example 8. Find the moment generating function of the exponential distribution
foay= de®, 055, > 0 Hence find its mean aud standard deviation (LUK Dew, 2010)
‘Sol. The moment generating function about the origi i
sateerer+
=[Gamte] = ter zere see \
Mean =0+ v'
v-[ So] re + 6ee>
Variance of =H =H Wy)
= Standard deviation = ¢
we-dad
EXERCISE 5.3 ———
1, Tro bad eggs are mand accidently with 10 good ones. Find the probability distribution of the
number oft eggs tn 3, drawn a random, without replacement, fom this Lot
2. Adie stowed twice. Getting anumber greater than 4 scons
the probally distribution ofthe umber of sueeeaoee-
8. Two cords are drawn simultaneously from a well-shulled deck of 82 eands. Compute the variance
{or the nuanber of wees
4. Anum contains 4 white and 320d balls. Theo balls urw drawn, with roplacerent, rom this ure
‘Find jo ond o forthe number of red balls drawn,
15. Comopute the varianes ofthe probability distribution of the mumber of doublets i four iow so
palref dice WHLD.L: May 2000)
6 Four coins nee tonsed. What i the expectation of the number of heads?
‘1. Suppose that X is a random variable foe which E(X) = 10 and VariX) = 25, Find the positive
Yalucs ofa and b such that T= aX—b has expectation O and variance
8. Avarinte X has the prabablty distribution
m3 8 8
Pax. en ee
Find E(0 ond 14), Hence evaluate BEX +
red msuncens
nd the variance of 2m
.
10.
M
16
1
ATEXTBOOK OF ENGINEERING Wa
“eure
A random variable X has the following probabiity distnbution
© 2 to 1 2 3
pos Ok ROD
Find the value of band calculate mean and variance
taining deed and? white balls, man is to draw 2 bulls a
vomised € 20 for eoch redbull be draws and #10 foreach whit
Pri an ora
replacement bi
A eandom varuble X has the following probubty distribution
VeobeewX > 0 1 8 8 4 5 6 7 g
eC on
Determine the value of Gi) Find PRE HPO 2, PREX <5)
ii) What i the smallst valu of «for whieh P(X <9 > 05
ind the standard deviation fr the fllowing discrete distribution
wo”
* & 2
’ « @
sn density Faneto
© fr red
1
[Gets for Base
0 br roe
Ale find P (25X52)
Find the moan andl variance ofthe following density function
«fe Ocred
fos |2-2 fr eed
© otherwise
The probability density pO of « continuous random variable is given by
WIEREM ween,
Prove that yy 3 Find the moan and variance ofthe disteibution,
esa,
Nifgmp eee steven
to elsewhere
Trprecnts the demnity of anda variable X, fd BX) and Va.
‘ind the expectation end variance ofthe random variable X, whose pif in given by
fr= 2, ito
otherwise
Answers
Ble
PROBABKITY DISTRIBUTIONS 2
4 2,98 8 af
a9 4787 9
hss
oe 222.200
® bo yeome wot
1 5 1225
wat wo 7
noord .
4 08
1. ved 1.0.2 32
1a
wm 3d
Frequency distributions can be classified under two heads
() Observed Frequency Distributions
Gi Theoretical or Expected Frequency Distributions.
Observed frequency distributions are based on actual observation and experimenta-
tion, Ifcertain hypothesis is assumed, it ix sometimes possible to derive mathematically what
the frequeney distrsbution of certain universe should be. Such distributions are called Theo-
retical Distributio
‘There are many types of theoretical frequency distributions but we shall consider only
three which are of great importance:
(@ Binomial Distribution (or Bernoulli's Distribution)
i) Poisson's Distribution:
(Git) Normal Distribution
BINOMIAL (OR BERNOULLI'S) DISTRIBUTION
INOMIAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Let there be n independent trials in an experiment. Let a random variable X denote the
number of successes in these 1 trials. Let p be the probability of a success and q that of a
faiuce in a single rial so that pq 1. Let the trals be andepenlent and p be constant for
every trial
Let us find the probability of r successes in n trials.
successes can be obtained in 1 trials in *C, ways.
N="C,PSSS....8 FFF...F)
="C,PIPS)....PS) POF)... POP) 274 sa
A TEXTBOOK OF ENGNEERING are
ay
t
POX =H) ="C, qr ph where p+q= 1 and r=0,1,2, 0.9
inbution (1) i ale the binomial probability distribution and
Called yy,
binomial variate
Note 1. P(X =) is usually written as P(P)
Note 2, The successive probubiities P() im (2) for = 0.1.2... mare
Mot PCE BCL P oy
which are the succossive
called “bincenial iste
Note 3.1 anu poceurringin the
vem ofthe bcm expansion af * TRA Why hi day
ena astibtion ae called the parameter the
Note 4 In binomial distributton ote
(0 n, the number of trials i inte
14) one tn
(ii) al the
thas only to possible 0
res usually culled success and failure
als are independent
for all the tls
vith n trials und probability of
cea in each tal
lenoted by Bun. Hm
5:21. RECURRENCE OR RECURSION FORMULA FOR THE BINOMIAL orsrniny,
Tow
In bimini arr
Pear EL gee
Hern cpt = een
Prev tnont_ et a n-rixin=ra yt,
Pr) in=r TDG Wart “rapa g
+ Posy BE Evy
which is the requived reeuere
ve formula,
PU), Pe», Pe,
Avping this formu sccesivly, we on fad
if PQO) is known. 7
5.22, MEAN AND VARIANCE OF THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
PTL 209
For the binomial distbution, Pe) =°C, hp
Mean n= SP Fr cgeepr
=O 190g +2. art p #9. MOy POP Facet ope
pipea MOD aoe, mln —1¥n—2)
Engh! poe pipes, MWB) a, cage
ma jaa u
Fhe tp + nin) gmtpt 4 MARU as, gage
2a
pa a2, (m= Ikn-2) a
mola tein tig? pp MA WR-2) nape, get
[rennet op
— ——as= -'-—_=
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS 25
smnimidigeienig gay ey er
pha +p) = mp © praed
Hence the mean of the binomial distribution
Variance of = 3 oP) = 3 le re D1 Per ae
= Soe S ree wows Snr yearn at
(Sine the contribution de tor = and r= 1g er)
HIE 1 Cg tpt + 82 Cg p+ + min) °Cp"| at
Uin=2) ays ,
am area
» pa 321%? P|
Sno rot + non on Bap ln Apa
rience beets beter espaol
Hem t= DP Cg escape eae gh yh
sm DpH p= be aso
= np + nin yp? nip? t
= mpl = (1 Dp np] = mpl ~pl = npg
Hence the variance of the binomial distribution is apa.
‘Standard deviation of the binomial distribution is Jpg
‘Similarly, we ean prove that
HF 1a 2ph
ence = = Se
H wo wi ee Jaa
Note.y,= $22 «Mae omial dintebution If < f
on” Vane
skewness ie postive. ip > kowness is megative ani p= 3. aera
f= 2+ *-SP% given measure ofthe kurtone ofthe binomial dstebatien
ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLES.
Example 1. During war, 1 ship ont of 9 ws
voyage. What was the probability that exactly 30m
suk on ae average in makuus a certarn
ould arrive safely?
‘Sol. p, the probability ofa ship arriving safely =
Binomint drivin (2 +8)"
‘The probabikty that exactly ships arrive safe oh ATEXOOOK OF ENOWNEERN Urey,
Example. lssime that on theacerage one llephone number out of fiteca ea
Meet be
See ee rredaye is busy. Wat is the probability that if © rancdomyy et
SEM and 21. ot we re tha re, (1 et re of hem if ey
Solr the baby fa elephone wumBer being BURY Belveen 2D. and gp
“
weok-days
6
is nie 2
n= 6: Bing dori (24+)
‘The probability that not more than three will be busy,
=P(O)+ PA) +P) + PED
wh (8) a) (G8 Gal oO (ah
2744 x 4150
e744 + 1176+ 210+ 20) =
“he pray that at eat the of the il sy
= PQS) + P(A) + POS) + PG)
=e. (55) (as) eG) in) "e+ ()Ge) °°) , we have
Wy
Whore As finite
i earns «pedis dotrwien which elle the Pein omg,
distribution. +
Note 1. 2 is called the parameter of tho distribution,
P(O) + PC) PD + PCD + = ede A EE
oa)nete
5.24, RECURRENCE FORMULA FOR THE POISSON DISTRIBUTION
PT.U. 3009
ou eter
For Poisson datrtmtion, Pir)= "= and Pir + 1)= ES
Por+D wt a
Pa) “euler Pet == Po)r=o, 12.3
‘This is called the recurrence formula for the Poisson distribution
‘5.25. MEAN AND VARIANGE OF THE POISSON DISTRIBUTION
WPL 2000,
‘Thus, the mean of the Poisson distribution is equal to the parameter.
EERNG VAI
:
tae
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS 283
aren? ja+ant
‘Thus, the mea
the parameter i.
Note. The mean and the variance of the Poisson distbution can also be derived from those of
the binomial distribution in the limiting ease when m+, p—+O and mp =
‘Mean of binomial distribution is my
Mean of Poisson distribution = Lt np= Lt 2=A
Variance of binomial distribution is upg = np (1 =p)
‘Variance of Poisson distribution = Lemp (1p)
ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLES —————————_
Example 1.1f the variance of the Poisson distribution is 3, find the probabilities for
= 1,8, 3,4 from the recurrence relation of the Poisson distributioic
Sol. 4, che parameter of Poisson distribution
Recurrence relation for the Poisson distribution is
rer Zona
a
Piy=
a P= = 1353
an (1), we get
vay=2 rays.
2
rea F mr. $4
PQ)= 3 * 1S04 = 902, A TEXTBOOK OF ENGINEERING ty
Then
Example 2 sume thal the probity of an individual coalminer ing hi,
1
mine accident during a year is S765
that inc: mine employing 200 miners there will beat least one fatal accident i a yeap
200 1
Sol. Here moo "ia = 088
3. Dota was collected over «period af 10 years, showing wimber of deny,
sam EERRIG Daw el eS
SN ee a eT a a Tae
Frequency: 109 65 a a é: 200
Fita Poisson distribution to the data and calculate the theoretical frequencies:
CID yy
ze 1.61
Sol. Mean of given distribution =>
‘This is the parameter (mi) of the Paisson distribution
te PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS:
h
Ce Piso’ distrib 10 oleate te pray, :
ity
285
istributed asa Poisson distribution
Sol Since the number of demands for acar is
mean m= 1.5)
Propoction of days on which neither car is used
= Probability of there being no demand for the car
0.2231
OF
Proportion of days.on which some demand is refused
= probabi
trfor the numberof demands tobe more than two
7)
SF) _y -o.ggar (i+ 15+ 1.125)
=o gz g.025 «104m = 0101985.
Bangle Sscawcrc tered 640 fe, ng he Pi raion, determin
septate ply fan thastne tines
(és
a) 7a
‘Sol. Probability of getting one head with one coin =
Average number of six heads with six coins in 6100 throw
-ois (rors eO3")
‘The probability of getting six heads with six coins
1
= 640% & = 100
“. The mean of the Poisson distribution = 100.
n on iaN, =e
Recquised Poisson dintedbutiot ln N « Approximate probability of getting six heads x times when the distribution is Poisson
oy (OSD cosy’ | wou’ = met _ 007 1 F2G42--— =
2006-988 SEE = 200 x 0.5485 = = 1087 x SE zt aber!
r Pir) Theoretical frequency EXERCISE 5.5
a 108.7 m. 1. Fit a Poisson distribution to the following:
7 1087x061 = 658 e * 0 L 2 3 '
4 cosy? ¢ f 192 100 a 3 1
. Tate * 2 Ifthe probubility of w bad reaction from a certain sajects ony mine thw chancw that
— fut of 2000 individual more thaa (wo will yt bad rewei
3 109.7 x OEP a gy 4 AS fina Poisson variate such that PON = 2) = PCS = 4) +90P(X =F), find the atamdan! destation
ae 4. Ufa random variable haw» Poiaondtributon such that PL) = (ind
4 ros 088 t @ mean ofthe dseribution BLD.U, Dee 2011) (PCD. (PTW. Dee. 2005)
Suppose that Shas a Puusson distribution, IEPA = 2) = $ P(X =1) find.) PIX =O) (i) PN =8).
Total = 200
6 Acurtin screw making machine produces oa average 2 defictivecerevs out of 100, and packs
Example ‘ot day by day. The nuntber of
fandom each yet Fan ction with mer 15 Clee
Ave proportion of days ou which neither car is used aud the proportion of days on which some
demand is refused. (c= 0.2231) praparion of.
A carshire firm has (wo cars, which it
(MD.U. Dee 2010)
them in boxes of $60. Find the probability that « bor contmine 15 defective serves
, (MLDLU. Dee. 2005)
wed
te
oP) ATEKTBOOK OF ENGINEERING May
f
calhiaiies evar ahaa
Ins of 100, What inthe pebolity tha a box selected a random wll
packs them
for more dofeetivn condensers? LD.U. Atay 9
8. Fit a Poisson distribution tothe fllowing und calculate theoretical frequenciex: ae
« 0 1 2 3 ae
o 5 2 1
t 1
LDU. 2006 De, 2007, So 2p
9% Fit » Poisson distribution to the following data given the numberof yeast cells persian
400 squnevs:
Noofeellaperen; 09 1 2 8 4 6 6 7 B B Ww
No.of squares 103: 1S HERO Og
(SMU. soon
ii eh aa ci in ti test de cnn (2) som,
standard deviation
In-n cortnin factory turning razor blades, ther» is 9 small chanot of 0002 for any blade tote
he
a,
fective. The bludes ure supplied in packets of 10. Use Poisson distribution to ealeul
‘approximate number uf packets containing na defective, one defective und twe defectivw blader
respectively in w consignment of 10000 packets (K. UC Dee, 200 Madras 2006, UP-T.. 00g)
22, Tho probability that a mon nged 35 years will die befure reaching the age of 40 yware may be
takon as 0,018. Out ofa group of 100 men, now aged 35 soars, what isthe probabulity that 2 men
will ce within the next 5 yours?
‘Suppose n book of B85 pages contains 43 typographical errors. [thes errors are randomly dis-
18.
tributed throughout the book, what is Uhe probability that 10 pages, sclected at random, will te
Iw from errors?
»
apy individual will suffor from these side effects is 0.002. If the drug is given to 3000 patients,
sebeeptel rast 8 cairo Socom as someon eect
: 0 De 009
LAB. ‘herbi hata ma gd 0 sor wi da within or 00115 Vat th peal
cea et ty tan sil ath nr ty fo eda
iesetinchanti
Aes
a EE 8 at 6020
Go se
sardines — A oo os
vets 28, where 20, 1.2,84
—,
‘Theoretical frequencies are 121, 61, 15.3
9% Theoroticalfroquencies are 1089, 142, 2, 40,19, 3, 1,0, 0,0,0
11, 9802, 196,212, 0.01996 13, 0.4795
1 01781 (0.7130 15, 0.90166,
‘The sido effects of a certain drug cause discomfort to only u few patients. The probably that
‘PROBABAITY DISTRIBUTIONS 207
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
5.26. NORMAL DISTRIBUTION (UK Doe, 2009; UPTV, 2007)
“The normal distribution isn continuous distribution, Ican be derived from the Binomial
distribution inthe limiting case when n, the number of trials is very large and p. the probability
fafa success, is elose to 4. The general equation of the normal distribution ix vem by
Leawation ofthe
a }
fees 5 1 )
rhe the varie wean souibraITVtNeR T= om wand
senratntdnat is rapsctray tbe mens ard the cindard deviation ofthe inBoaton sod
we 0.x isealled the normal variate and /() is called probability density function
led the parameters of
(of the normal distribution,
Ifa variable x has the normal distribution with mean } and standard deviation 6, we
briefly write x Nis, 0°)
‘The graph of the normal distribution is called the normal curve. It is bellshapped and
symmetrical about the mean jt. Tho twa tails of the curve extend to +» and ~w fowands the
positive and negative dirvetions of the xwaxis respee- Ru
tively nnd gradually approach the x-axis without ever
imetting it. The curve is unimodal and the mode of the
normal distribution coincides with its mean ji. The Line
-r= divides the area under the norimal curve above x
axis into two wqual parts Thus, the median ofthe dis-
tnbution also coincides with its mean and mode. The
area under the normal eurve between any two given
srdinates x= #, and xx, repeescats the probability © e
of values fling into the given interval. The total area under the normal curve above the
sais is |
5.27. BASIC PROPERTIES OF THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
‘The probability density function of the normal disteibution is given by
tel
we
1. The total aren under normal probobility curve is unity
‘Normal probability curve is given by
Lio
1° Oita
Area under this eure
“freee oF we
(SLD, May 2006) co
aL fetta zf
oan
Required area
2, The meant of the normat distribution
‘The general frm of the normal curve is
ae
1° oie
1 1
wide=
LO Se
Putting ~Tr=h dee o¥2 dt
Mean
Mean aE. [LimeovBie" os at
= Limeontinet ae
RL feta
3. Fora normal curve,
te-® is an odd function oft
Uso the mi the
‘The equation of the normal curve is PRES Deeee
Now
and ]
oe
Hence the inate on
ang} te mannan when
mie. the ordinate at the mean ist
[PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS.
4. The mode of the normal distribution.
Theories cave
aa
N
»* aie
Made is the valuo of corresponding toy = 3p. where 8 the maximum [requency.
Proceeding asin Example 3, is maximum when =m
once the mode = the mean =m.
8. The median of the normal distribution.
TEM is the median of the normal distribution, we have
a
Now
From (1)
= foe a=0 = Mem
ese for the vrais
riutin, mean, median and mode coincide
8. Therion and sondrddeiton ofruorl dsb
‘The equation of the normal curve is
1
ove A TEXTBOOK OF ENGINEERING Hen,
290
+
fwdzend 292
I is free From any para
sohabilty curve by making use o
Bria Note 1 fs the prbebiity dons
nietsey> [ fde=
standard tables.
“The fusetion F() defined above is called the
Note 2. The protabiities Pe, $253) Fs
zarded to be the same
Noto 3.
Fea)=t-Fe).
A VEAtowon et SATEEN Magy
293
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS.
x
Teeter, This helps m8 10 COMpuLE ATEDS Under hy
3 Tuaction forthe normal distribution, then
12)-Fed. where FO=[ Rodeag,
sare
distribution function for the norrnal dist
<252),Ple,$2< 2)
and Pi 2)=PO
