DEMOGRAPHY

ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING
CAPABILITY BUILDING FOR ARCHITECTS
Dates : March 8/9/15/16/22/23
Resource Speaker
Prof. Mike V. Guioguio, EnP, REB
International School of Sustainable Tourism
 Socio-Economic Sectoral Studies formulating the goals and
(Analysis of the Situation) objectives, targets

establishing development
Social Character thrust and spatial strategies
and Problems
(spatial and sectorsl)

land use proposals and

Economic corresponding policies,
Character and programs and projects
Problems

implementing strategies
Infrastructure/
Utilities

monitoring/evaluation
strategies

Social, Economic
and Environmental
Potential
 DEMOGRAPHY
demography means description of the people;
United Nations defines demography as the scientific
study of the human population primarily with respect
to size, structure and development. It is therefore
concerned with the current size and characteristics of
human population, how they were attained and how
they are changing
Population
as defined in the Glossary of Definition of the
National statistical Coordination
Board (NSCB) is the total number of
individuals in a territory at a specified time. It
covers both nationals and aliens; native- and foreign-
born persons, internees, refugees and other groups
physically present within the borders of a country at a
specified time. Thus, the total population of the
planning area i.e. the city or municipality, is the
number of individuals physically present at a
specified time, that is the census period.
Demographic Profile Used by
Planners
Population composition (age groupings and sex
ratios)
Population distribution (geographic pattern of
the location of people) population projections
(changes in population brought about by its
components such as birth, death, and migration relate
to the historical and projected growth of the
population)
BASIC DATA REQUIREMENTS
OUTPUT/ANALYTICAL

TABLES
 Population Composition

1) Total Population By Age Group and Sex 2)

Age Dependency Ratio 3) Labor Force and
Employment (later Economic) 4) School-Age
Population (later Social)
Total Population By Age Group
and Sex
Age-Sex Structure plotted as population pyramid will
show at a glance the distribution of population in the
locality. The form of population pyramid, generally
reflects the pattern of fertility, mortality and
migration in the past. A broad-based pyramid is
brought about by very high fertility while narrow-
based pyramid indicates low fertility/population
growth rate for some time.
Sex distribution is best expressed as sex ratio,
i.e, a ratio higher than 100 indicates that there is a
predominance of male population in the area while less than
100 indicates a predominance of female population. The sex
ratio is lower in areas where massive female in-migration is
prevalent. Conversely, the sex ratio increases in areas where
out-migration is dominated by females.
 Age-Sex Pyramids
– The most important demographic characteristic of a
population is its age-sex structure;
– Age-sex pyramids (also known as population pyramids)
graphically display this information to improve
understanding and ease comparison;
– Age-sex pyramids display the percentage or actual amount
of a population broken down by gender and age. The five-
year age increments on the y-axis allow the pyramid to
vividly reflect long term trends in the birth and death rates
but also reflect shorter term babybooms, wars, and
epidemics
Population Pyramid of the
Philippines
POPULATION PYRAMIDS FOR 4 STAGES
OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
MODEL
 Age Dependency Ratio
Age provides the basis for estimating population
services/opportunities for different segments of population:
school going-age, the dependent population, the employable
group and the elderly, as follows:
– 0-14 years old - child and youth, dependent population
– 15-64 years old - productive population or working age group
– below 15 and over 64 years old - dependent population Age
dependency ratio indicates the extent to which those who
are too young or too old to earn a living depend for support
on those who work, computed as follows:
Population Distribution
SOME POPULATION
CHARACTERISTICS
Population density is a measurement of
population per unit

area
or unit volume;
– The Crude Birth Rate (CBR) and Crude Death Rate (CBR) are
statistical values that can be utilized to measure the growth or decline
of a population; The Crude Birth Rate and Crude Death Rate are both
measured by the rate of births or deaths respectively among a
population of 1000. The CBR and CDR are determined by taking the
total number of births or deaths in a population and dividing both
values by a number to obtain the rate per 1000.
The Crude Birth Rate is called "crude" because it
does not take into account age or sex differences
among the population.
Crude Birth Rates of more than 30 per 1000 are
considered high and rates of less than 18 per 1000 are
considered low.
Crude Death Rates of below ten are considered low while Crude
Death Rates above twenty per 1000 are considered high.
 Population Growth Rates
The rate of national growth is expressed as a
percentage for each country, commonly between
about 0.1% and 3% annually;
– Natural growth represents the births and deaths in a
country's population and does not take into account
migration;
– The overall growth rate takes migration into account;
– Population at t + 1 =
Populationt + Natural increaset + Net
migrationt
 Doubling Time
–"Doubling Time," tells us how long it will take for a
country's current population to double. This length of
time is determined by having the growth rate as the
divisor of 70 in a division formula. The number 70
comes from the natural log of 2, which is
.70.
Measures of Population Change
Calculating Percent Change
Components of Population
Growth
Population change can also be expressed in
terms of the components of demographic
change. The components include:
Fertility Mortality Migration
Population Change
Annual Rate of Population
Growth
Example
SHORT-CUT FORMULA

Example
POPULATION PROJECTION
METHODS
 TREND EXTRAPOLATION
METHODS Linear Equation
Extrapolating the Population into the Future – The
Linear Equation – Assumption:
– The linear model assumes that population growth is growing at
absolute equal increments per year, decade, or other unit of time. It
also assumes that growth will follow a similar pattern in future years.

– When best to use:

– Use when the pattern of growth is similar to a straight line. This tool
is especially useful when projecting areas experiencing slow growth.
Equation (Linear)
Guioguio, Mike V. Population
Use of Linear Regression Analysis in Linear Equation
 EXPONENTIAL
The exponential curve displays a pattern of constant, rapid population
growth. It is an arched upward curve that has no upper limit.
Assumption:
– Population is assumed to grow at a geometric rate; i.e., with each unit of
time, the absolute addition of population continues to get larger and
larger, as shown in Figure 6-4.
When to Use
– This method is suitable for short-term projections of 510 years for
rapidly growing regions. Note that it can produce unrealistically high
projections over longer periods of time.
 Equation (Exponential)

Example: Project Population in

2012 for Las Piñas
 Modified Exponential Model
Assumption
– Population growth reaches an upper
limit in the future, at line K.
When to Use this Model
– Use this model in locales that previously experienced high
growth rates and are currently experiencing growth at a
slower
pace.
 Modified Exponential Equation

An example of the modified exponential curve is provided below. The upper

limit for K is set at 8,000 residents. It is assumed that
population growth is slow as a result of declining economic
opportunities in the locale.
To accept this projection, it is necessary to study the economy of the area as well as
the carrying capacity of the land to determine if the estimate is too low or high. It
may also be necessary to study the components of demographic change - migration,
fertility, and mortality. For rural districts, in particular, out-migration can have a
major impact on population size.
 Extrapolation Summary
It is important to identify the projection tool that fits the available
information and provides the most reasonable projection of the future. It is
a difficult task that requires investigating various tools as well as the
economic and demographic behavior of the locale.
The following suggestions can aid in the selection and application of
appropriate tools.

Plot projection results on a graph and then determine if the plot best fits the
observed data.
Use a different method that fits the assumptions of the data and perform
another projection. Do strong differences exist? If so, determine why. Is it
the data used or the tools employed? Were there enough census takings?
Was a good start date selected for the first census period?
Check the basic assumptions of each method employed. Do the data support
the assumptions?
Examine the social, economic, and demographic trends that are taking place.
Will the trends continue in the future? Do they
support the projection?
 Prorating Projection Tools

The ratio method projects population growth for a subarea using population
projections for a larger or parent population. A regional projection can be
used to project the population size of districts, and a projection for the
country can be used to project the population size of a region.
Assumption
– Local population change is highly dependent on what happens to the
population in the surrounding regions or states. The ratio method can be used to
project population growth for the local area if two conditions are met: similar
population patterns exist for both the locale and the parent population; and it is
expected to continue in the future.
– The ratio method also assumes that a projection exists for the larger or parent
population. As indicated in Lesson 5, projections for large areas such as a
country, province, or region tend to be more reliable than those produced for
smaller locales.
When to Use this Method
– Use this method for projecting the total population size for 5 10+ year periods
(barangay, age-groups).
The Ratio Method Summary
Equation
 Example
Supposing the only data on Las Pinas population is 2000 population of 427,780 and
you are asked to project the 2012 population of Las Pinas?
First Step=Get the % share of 2000 population of Las Pinas to the 2000 population of
NCR which is a parent area of Las Pinas and have complete data on 2000 and 2007
census:

2nd Step= Project NCR’s population for 2012 using the various
extrapolation methods, in this case use the exponential method:

Example (cont.)
 3rd Step=Multiply results of Step 1 with the results of
Step 2:

How to Use this Tool

Use historic census data to graph the sub-area population and the parent or
state population to see if similar growth is taking place.

Collect projections for the parent population. Examine differences in the

projections and determine why the differences exist. What methods were
used and what were the assumptions?

The ratio tool has a number of advantages over extrapolation techniques.

Computation is fast; it only takes a few minutes once the data and a reliable
projection are available. Revisions are simple, and the ratio tool can be used
to make long-range projections. There are, however,
some disadvantages. First, like extrapolation tools, the
ratio tool does not support the study of changes in
 births, deaths, and migration. In addition, it requires a reliable
projection for the larger area. Finally, it is highly dependent on the assumed
relationship between the sub-area and the larger or parent population.
THE COHORT COMPONENT POPULATION PROJECTION METHOD

The cohort component technique uses the components of demographic change to

project population growth. The technique projects the population by age groups, in
addition to other demographic attributes such as sex and ethnicity. This projection
method is based on the components of demographic change including births,
deaths, and migration.

To project the total population size, and the number of males and females by 5-year
age groups, find the number of people who survive or are
expected to be alive in the future. Add to the survived
 population number, the number of births that take place and the number of
net migrants.
Assumption
– When the cohort component method is used as a projection tool, it assumes the
components of demographic change, mortality, fertility, and migration, will
remain constant throughout the projection period. As a forecasting tool,
planners can alter the vital statistics and migration estimates to reflect their
view of the future.
Strong Suggestion
– When making a 10-year projection, it is best to perform two separate
projections: a projection for the first 5 years and then a projection for the next
5 years. The result of the first projection is used to perform the second round of
the projection. In some cases, planners alter demographic rates to reflect their
vision of the future for a locale.
When to Use this Method
– Use the cohort component method when population projections by age and sex
are needed for 5 years, 10 years or longer periods of time. This projection tool
allows planners to examine the future needs of different segments of the
population including the needs of children, women in their reproductive years,
persons in the labor force, and the elderly. It also allows planners to project the
total size of the population. The results can be used in
all aspects of local and regional development plans.
 Applying the Method
The goal is to project the number of women for the district from years 2000-2005.

Discussion
The cohort component population projection method follows the process of
demographic change and is viewed as a more reliable projection method
than those that primarily rely on census data or information that reflects
population change. It also provides the type of information needed to plan
for services to meet the future demands of different segments of the
population.
Like most projection tools, there are disadvantages to using the cohort
component method. First, it is highly dependent on reliable birth, death and
migration data. Thus, it may be difficult to collect the information to apply
this tool. Second, it assumes that survival and birth rates and estimates of
net migration will remain the same throughout the projection period. In
addition it does not consider the nondemographic factors that influence
population growth or decline.
Even though problems exists, this projection method is the most
widely used tool by planners since it provides information on the potential
growth or decline of a locale by age and sex.

STRUCTURAL MODELS
Often very complex in nature, models falling
into this group explain population growth
(dependent variable) through a variety of
nondemographic (independent) variables such
as employment, wage levels, and local
amenities as well as land use and
transportation models.
Pop = f (income, employment, taxes,
investments)
END OF DISCUSSION!!
Bibliography:
– http://www.cpc.unc.edu/measure/training/me
ntor/population-research/pap)
– Department of the Interior and Local Government (2005).
Rationalized local planning system of the Philippines.
Quezon City, Philippines: Author;
– Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board (2007). CLUP
guidebook volume 2: A guide to sectoral studies in the
CLUP preparation. Makati City,
Philippines: Author