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3 Horizons PDF

It uses three horizons - or time periods - to map current assumptions (Horizon 1), emerging changes that may disrupt those assumptions (Horizon 3), and potential entrepreneurial responses in the present (Horizon 2). Participants brainstorm assumptions, emerging changes, and opportunities to respond to changes on a large wall mural depicting the overlapping horizons. The framework helps make assumptions explicit, explore change, and identify actions to transition from the present to the future.

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Aaron Bare
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229 views12 pages

3 Horizons PDF

It uses three horizons - or time periods - to map current assumptions (Horizon 1), emerging changes that may disrupt those assumptions (Horizon 3), and potential entrepreneurial responses in the present (Horizon 2). Participants brainstorm assumptions, emerging changes, and opportunities to respond to changes on a large wall mural depicting the overlapping horizons. The framework helps make assumptions explicit, explore change, and identify actions to transition from the present to the future.

Uploaded by

Aaron Bare
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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FORESIGHT

TOOLKIT

THREE
HORIZONS
FRAMEWORK
THREE HORIZONS

Thinking about the future means learning to think differently. Emerging


change will challenge our current assumptions, and over time today’s
decisions, policies, and products will become obsolete. How can we
futureproof our thinking and planning?

The Three Horizons Framework (3H) helps by asking people first to make
their assumptions explicit, and then to explore emerging change as a way
to reframe what they think, what they want, and what they do. The final
step looks back at history, forward at the possibilities, and creates actions
that bridge from today to tomorrow.

OVERVIEW

"Three Horizons" ... connects the present with desired (or espoused) futures,
and helps to identify the divergent futures which may emerge as a result of
conflict between the embedded present and these imagined futures1.

3H maps overlapping waves of change visible in the present as mindsets:


managerial, visionary, and entrepreneurial.

Three Horizons was developed by Bill Sharpe of International Futures Forum


as part of work for the UK Foresight Program’s Intelligent Infrastructures
Project2. Sharpe wanted initially to depict overlapping waves of technological
innovation and change more realistically than traditional technology road-
mapping. Three Horizons has proven widely useful as a conceptual model to
aid people thinking about current assumptions, emerging changes, and
possible and desired futures. It is constantly evolving and a sizeable library of
case studies now exists.

1. Curry and Hodgson, “Seeing in Multiple Horizons: Connecting Futures to Strategy” in Journal of Futures Studies, August 2
2008
2. Sharpe and Hodgson, UK Foresight Programme, Intelligent Infrastructure Futures Technology Forward Look
What it is an approach to sense-making overlapping waves of uncertain
change in the context of our current assumptions.

What it knowledgeable facilitator; diversity of contributors; scan data.


needs
Mode mixes logical, intuitive (pattern identification), and creative
thinking.
Strengths helps staff spot vulnerabilities in current assumptions,
opportunities for strategic action.
Weaknesses qualitative approach; people mistake it for a simple timeline.

Cost knowledgeable facilitator; participant time; cost of scan data.

WHEN TO USE IT

Three Horizons is an adaptable futures tool, and has several uses:

 Providing a simple introduction to futures thinking


It helps participants inventory their tacit knowledge and basic operating assumptions
about an issue, or their organization, and then explore the impacts of short, medium,
and long-range change - and how they might react to those impacts.

 Sense-making trends and emerging changes


If participants are reviewing data on trends, emerging changes, and potential
impacts, the 3H framework of overlapping changes can help them sort critical
changes by how mature they are, and when their impacts are likely to be felt in
relation to current projects.

 Providing internal structure to scenario narratives


Because 3H depicts overlapping and often competing timelines of unfolding change,
they can provide a narrative ‘backbone’ of the change patterns driving a given
scenario.

 Generating innovations : new products, services, policies, or initiatives


The 3rd horizon changes challenge the assumptions of the first. Those challenges,
and resulting conflicts, emerge in the 2nd horizon. That means the 2nd horizon
presents an opportunity to discard the old and take practical steps to create
something new using emerging changes as building blocks.

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HOW TO APPLY IT

Setting
Three Horizons ideally requires a large room with one blank wall (no windows,
paintings, blackboards, etc.: empty wall space), in order to create a large, long wall
mural on which to draw the three overlapping curves depicting the three
horizons. This wall mural becomes the workspace on which participants brainstorm,
using post-its. Because participants will be standing in front of the mural, clustering
post-its, moving them around, and discussing them, the wall should have plenty of
open space immediately in front of it: at least five feet between the wall surface and
any chairs or tables.

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Materials
 4’ X 12’ banner paper for the wall mural (or multiple overlapping flipchart sheets
to create the same amount of workspace on the wall)
 water-based chisel tip magic markers to draw the 3H graphic
 large post-its for participants to use
 sharpies to write ideas on the post-its

Ideally the post-its should be in three colors: yellow for 1st horizon current
assumptions; blue for 3rd horizon emerging changes; and green for 2nd horizon
entrepreneurial activities. You will also need a “trends and emerging issues” deck -
a set of pre-printed cards summarizing emerging changes for people to think
about. This is usually in addition to asking people to brainstorm what changes they
have noticed, to expand their sense of what is possible. Multiple online sites offer
trend lists, or of course you can create a list from original horizon scanning and
emerging issues research.

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START

Introduce the Three Horizons framework, describing the horizons:

First Horizon – current context and conditions; the focus is maintaining


stability, and the mindset is that of the manager.

Third Horizon – transformative emerging changes, ideas about possible


futures, and visions of preferred futures; the focus is on transformation
and disruption, and the mindset is that of the visionary.

Second Horizon – actions taken in the present to resist change, to adapt


to change, or to build on change; the focus is on creating and managing
change, and the mindset is that of the entrepreneur.

STEPS

Ask participants to work in pairs. Distribute the yellow post-its and sharpies.

Horizon 1 We start the 3 Horizons tool with Horizon 1 – “the


current state of play.” Ask all the pairs to brainstorm as
What does now many responses as possible to the question:
look like? What are the current working assumptions about
production, services, resources, staff, customers, capital?
20-30 min What is the current state of play?
What are managers taking for granted when they make
decisions?”

 15 minutes brainstorming in pairs, jotting each item


down on a separate orange post-it; facilitators help
participants add post-its to the mural
 15 minutes clustering, discussing, filling in the
blanks.

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Horizon 3 The next step is to identify emerging changes that
represent transformational shifts from the present.
What’s Ask questions like:
changing? What changes are emerging as completely new
paradigms and novel means to understand and
45 min undertake various human activities?
What new issue or invention has you worried - or
excited? What are visionary leaders saying?”

 15 minutes brainstorming in pairs, jotting each item


down on a separate orange post-it; facilitators collect
post-its to display on mural.
Thinking about the future may be new to many of the
participants. They may not have been collecting information
about emerging change (as futures researchers do), so it is
likely there will be fewer ideas generated in this round.
In order to expand the possibilities considered, and expand
everyone’s thinking, it is useful to come prepared with a deck
of ‘change cards’ that describe various trends and emerging
issues.
Spread the change cards out on a work table, and ask the
pairs to review the cards, cluster them into related changes if
they like, and choose what they feel are the most significant
to post to the 3rd horizon on the wall mural
 15 minutes reviewing the change deck cards,
clustering, and posting on the 3rd Horizon
 15 minutes to review all the changes posted on the
3rd horizon and discuss

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Horizon 2 Pairs should join at a table to create a working group of 4-
6 people. Review the assumptions on Horizon One and
What the emerging issues on Horizon Three.
assumptions are
challenged by Which assumptions will be most challenged by change?
those changes, Which are most vulnerable to these emerging changes?
and how can we Are there any which are being strengthened? Pick one
respond to the highly vulnerable assumption.
resulting How can you use the emerging changes to create entirely
opportunities new products, services and markets?
and risks? Is there another business model that could replace a
challenged model? Other production process(es)? New
45 min sources in the supply chain? Emerging customer
segments?

Choose two or three emerging changes that could be


used to build entirely new business models, source raw
materials, build new production processes, or open up
entirely new markets or means of advertising and
distribution.
Each group use emerging changes to create an
interesting transition idea for your business/industry
that helps successfully bridge from Horizon One to
Horizon Three.

 25 minutes to create an entrepreneurial initiative


 20 minutes for all the groups to share their ideas in
plenary

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Debriefing In plenary, participants discuss key highlights from the
exercise:
What have we
learned? what current assumptions will be most challenged by
change? will any become obsolete in the face of the
15 mins changes we’ve identified?
what changes offer the most promise and immediately
actionable opportunities?
which innovations or initiatives hold the most promise?

Example
Simple Three Horizons showing Horizon One traditional business paradigms and
operating assumptions, and Horizon Three emerging issues.

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TIPS
Keep emphasizing the particular mindset of each horizon when participants are
working in that horizon:

 1st horizon emphasizes what’s known, what’s taken for granted, what we
assume ‘will always be with us,’ and focusses on maintaining stability

 3rd horizon emphasizes the new, the transformative, the visionary, the break
with past traditions and current assumptions

 2nd horizon emphasizes incremental adaptation, actions resisting change, and


practical new innovations to create opportunities from change

HOW TO ADAPT IT
1. Blend it with the Gartner Hype Cycle

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2. Blend it with Carlotta Perez’ work on historical eras, surges, and change

3. Use Causal Layered Analysis as a discussion prompt for each horizon - this
works especially well to dig more deeply into the assumptions on Horizon 1.

4. Use the Verge Framework as a discussion prompt for each horizon - this works
especially well to dig more deeply into the assumptions on Horizon 1.

EXAMPLES OF USE
 Case study: Scottish Education

 Case study: Pepsico

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RESOURCES
 Sharpe and Hodgson, UK Foresight Programme, Intelligent Infrastructure
Futures Technology Forward Look
 Curry and Hodgson, “Seeing in Multiple Horizons: Connecting Futures to
Strategy” in Journal of Futures Studies, August 2008
 Bill Sharpe, Three Horizons: The Patterning of Hope, International Futures
Forum,
 Trends decks: UK Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology; Forum for
the Future, The Futures Centre

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