MATHEMATICAL MODELLING

By:
Dr. Dipankar Sadhukhan
Assistant Professor (W.B.E.S.)
Dept. of Mathematics
Haldia Government College
What is Mathematical Modeling ?
A mathematical model is a description of a system using Mathematical
concepts and language.
The process of developing a mathematical model is termed mathematical
modeling.

Mathematical models are used in :

 Natural sciences (such as physics, biology, earth sciences, meteorology etc.)

 Engineering disciplines (such as computer Sciences, artificial intelligence etc.)

 Social Sciences (such as economics, psychology, sociology, etc.)

Elements of a mathematical model

Mathematical models can take the forms, like :

 Dynamical Systems,

 Statistical Models,

 Differential Equations,

 Game theoretic Modeling.

Ecosystem model:

Ecosystem models or ecological models are mathematical

representations of ecosystems. Typically they simplify
complex food-webs down to their major components or
trophic levels and quantify these as either numbers of
organisms, biomass or the inventory/concentration of
some pertinent chemical element (for instance, carbon or a
species’ nutrient such as nitrogen or phosphorus).
Complexity of Ecosystem model:

 Ecosystem models are a development of theoretical ecology that aim

to characterize the major dynamics of ecosystems, both to
synthesize the understanding of such systems and to allow
predictions of their behavior.

 Because of the complexity of ecosystems (in terms of numbers of

species/ecological interactions), ecosystem models typically
simplify the systems which are studied to a limited number of
pragmatic components.
Modeling factors:
 Ignorance: While understood in broad outline, the details of a particular
food- web may not be known; this applies both to identifying relevant
species, and to the functional responses linking them (which are often
extremely difficult to quantify)
 Computation: Practical constraints on simulating large numbers of
ecological elements; this is particularly true when ecosystem models are
embedded within other spatially-resolved models (such as physical models
of terrain or ocean bodies, or idealized models such as cellular automata or
coupled map lattices).
 Understanding: Depending upon the nature of the study, complexity can
con- found the analysis of an ecosystem model; the more interacting
components a model has, the less straightforward it is to extract and
separate causes and con- sequences; this is compounded when uncertainty
about components obscures the accuracy of a simulation.
Structure of an Ecosystem model:

 The simplification process of this kind of model typically reduces an

ecosystem to a small number of state variables.
 Depending upon the system under study, these may represent
ecological components in terms of number of discrete individuals or
quantify the component more continuously as a measure of the total
biomass.
 The components are then linked together by mathematical functions
that describe the nature of the relationships between them.

Basic Concepts and Terminologies:

 Growth Rate:

 As we know that the population changes over time, so it is important to know that
how it is changing or more precisely what is its time rate of change which we call
the growth rate.

 In short The growth rate of a population is the rate of change of its density or size
per unit time. It is determined by the difference of birth rate and the death rate.
 Birth Rate:
 The birth rate of a population is the maximum production of new individuals per
unit time under certain ideal conditions (i.e., without any ecological limiting
factors, production being limited by physiological factors only).
 Death Rate:
 Death rate may be expressed as the number of individuals dying per unit time.

 Half-saturation constants:
 The concentration supporting an uptake rate one-half the maximum rate. i.e. the
concentration supporting half of the maximum uptake rate.
Continuous Single Species Population Models:
 Continuous Growth Model: Single-species models are of relevance to laboratory
studies in particular but, in the real world, can reflect a telescoping of effects
which influence the population dynamics. Let 𝑥1 (𝑡) be the population of the
species at time t, then the rate of change.
𝑑𝑥1
 = 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡ℎ𝑠 − 𝑑𝑒𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑠 + 𝑚𝑖𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛.
𝑑𝑡
 Delay Model: Most of the population model did not considered maturity
time, and gestation period. But in reality these factors have an important
role in population dynamics. Time delay is the time to reach maturity and
the finite gestation period that is considered in the population dynamics
and the corresponding differential equation is known as delay differential
equation which is of the form
𝑑𝑁
 = 𝑓(𝑁(𝑡), 𝑁(𝑡 − 𝑇))
𝑑𝑡
 Deterministic Model: A deterministic model is one in which every
set of variable states is uniquely determined by parameters in the
model and by sets of previous states of these variables. Therefore,
deterministic models perform the same way for a given set of initial
conditions.

 Stochastic Model: Environmental fluctuation is an important

component of an ecosystem. Deterministic models in ecology do not
usually incorporate environmental fluctuation. A stochastic model
provides a more realistic picture of a natural system than its
deterministic part as the environment is always subjected to random
fluctuations that affect the system of population dynamics.
 Fuzzy Model: An ecological model is said to be Fuzzy model if one or more
parameters of the model are fuzzy in nature.
Lotka-Volterra Model:
 The Lotka–Volterra equations, also known as the predator–prey
equations, are a pair of first-order, nonlinear, differential
equation frequently used to describe the dynamics of biological
systems in which two species interact, one as a predator and the
other as prey. The populations change through time according to
the pair of equations:

𝑑𝑥
 = 𝛼𝑥 − 𝛽𝑥𝑦
𝑑𝑡
𝑑𝑦
 = 𝛿𝑥𝑦 − γ𝑦
𝑑𝑡
 𝑥 is the number of prey (for example, rabbits);

 𝑦 is the number of some predator (for example, foxes);

 𝑥ሶ and 𝑦ሶ represent the growth rates of the two populations over time;

 𝒕 represents time.

 𝛼, 𝛽, 𝛾, 𝛿 are positive real parameters describing the interaction of

the two species
Harvesting Model :

 In the population dynamics, especially in fishery, resource harvesting is

very important part to make the population model more realistic. The
harvesting in population biology has taken a definite shape by the work of
Clark. For a single species population model, the mathematical form of the
model is like:
𝑑𝑥
 = 𝐹 (𝑥) − ℎ(𝑡)
𝑑𝑡

 where 𝐹(𝑥) takes different forms for logistic and Gompertz types of
growth laws and ℎ(𝑡) is removal rate or harvesting rate. For constant rate
of harvesting ℎ(𝑡) is constant and for other cases ℎ(𝑡) has different forms.
 Again for multi (two)- species model, the system with harvesting is
of the form:

 𝑑𝑥/𝑑𝑡 = 𝐹1 (𝑥) − 𝛼𝑔1 (𝑥, 𝑦) − ℎ1 (𝑡)

 𝑑𝑦/𝑑𝑡 = 𝐹2 (𝑦) + 𝛽𝑔2 (𝑥, 𝑦) − ℎ2 (𝑡)
Discrete Age-structured Model :

We have developed the model with discrete-age scale and

discrete-time. Hence the birth and death rates of different age
groups are constant within age group and the changes in
population in different stages i.e. the population at time (t+1)
can be determined from the known population at time t. The
present model is also one-sex model i.e. all changes are assumed
to occur in female populations only and the male populations
conform with these changes. Let the female population be
divided into n age groups and the populations of all age groups
at time t is x1(t), x2(t), x3(t), …….., xn(t), i.e. i-th suffix denotes
i-th age group. We also assume the model to be deterministic
and linear i.e. there is no random parameter/ variable in the
model element and all changes are proportional to the
population size.
 Let fi , (i = 1, 2,..., n; fi ³ 0 ) represents the average number of
female off-spring alive at time (t+1),born in the time interval (t,
t+1) to each female who was in the age group (i-1, i) at time
t .Now the number of females in the age group (i-1, i) at time t
is xi ( t ) ,each of whom gives birth on an average to a certain
number of number of female off-spring in the interval (t, t+1),of
whom fi remains alive at time ( t + 1) . So that the number of
female off-spring in the age group (0,1), alive at time ( t + 1) ,born
out of these xi ( t ) females is fi xi ( t ) .Thus the number of female off-
spring in the first age group at time ( t + 1) is given by

x1 ( t + 1) = f1 x1 ( t ) + f 2 x2 ( t ) + f 3 x3 ( t ) + ... + f n xn (t )
Now let pi , i  1,2,..., n  1;0  pi  1 be the proportion of females of
the i-th age group at time t ,who are surviving to become females
of the (i+1)-th age group at time t 1 .Now we consider the rate
of harvesting h1 , h2 ,...., hn1 of the population
x2 t  , x3 t  ,..., xn t  respectively.
Therefore
xi+1 = pi xi(t) - hi xi+1(t) ; i = 1, 2, 3, ….n-1
Hence the model can be written as a system of difference
equation
x1  t 1  f1 x1  t   f 2 x2  t   f 3 x3  t  ... f n xn  t 
x2  t 1  p1 x1  t   h1 x2  t 
x3  t 1  p2 x2  t   h2 x3  t 
.
.
.
.
xn  t 1  pn1 xn1  t   hn1 xn  t 
Malthusian growth model:

 A Malthusian growth model, sometimes called a simple

exponential growth model, is essentially exponential growth based
on a constant rate. The model is named after Thomas Robert
Malthus, who wrote An Essay on the Principle of
Population (1798), one of the earliest and most influential books
on population.
Malthusian models have the following form:

𝑑𝑥 (𝑡)
= 𝑟𝑥 (𝑡)
𝑑𝑡
where 𝑟 (> 0) is a constant called the intrinsic growth rate of the
population.
Malthus Graph:
Logistic law of growth:
𝑑𝑥 𝑥
 = 𝑟𝑥(1 − )
𝑑𝑡 𝑘

where 𝑟 (> 0) is a constant called the intrinsic

growth rate of the population.

where 𝑘 (> 0) is the carrying capacity of the habitat.

Gompertz law of growth:
𝑑𝑥 𝑘
 = 𝑟 log 𝑥
𝑑𝑡 𝑥
SIS epidemic model:

 Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible

 You get sick, then recover, but without immunity

 E.g. the common cold.

Diagram :

 Susceptible become infected at rate a

 Infected recover at rate b.
a b
 𝑆 ՜ I՜S
SIS Equations:

 Becoming infected depends on contact

 between Susceptible and Infected (𝑎𝑆𝐼)
 Recovery is at a constant rate, proportional to number of Infected
(𝑏).
𝑑𝑠
= 𝑏𝐼 − 𝑎𝑆𝐼
𝑑𝑡
𝑑𝐼
= 𝑎𝑆𝐼 − 𝑏𝐼
𝑑𝑡
Total population is constant:

Add equations together

𝑁 = 𝑆 + 𝐼 (total population)
𝑑𝑁/𝑑𝑡 = 0, 𝑁 is a constant.

𝑑𝑁 𝑑𝑠 𝑑𝐼
= + = 𝑏𝐼 − 𝑎𝑆𝐼 + 𝑎𝑆𝐼 − 𝑏𝐼=0
𝑑𝑡 𝑑𝑡 𝑑𝑡
Books:

1. Mathematical Biology: I. An Introduction: by: by James D. Murray.

2. Bio-Mathematics : by Pundir and Pundir.

3. Mathematical Modelling: by J. N. Kapur

Thank You