The Master Strategist
The Master Strategist
Ketan Patel is one of the leading minds of his generation. Head of the strategic group at Goldman Sachs, he
is the chief futurologist for the firm. His unique insights into why the world works the way it does, in terms
of politics, economics, warfare and business enables him to reveal to Goldman Sachs' clients 'how to
leapfrog the rest of the world, not catch up'. This extraordinary new book will set the agenda for decades to
come.
"The Master Strategist" is written to create an awareness of the need to demonstrate a more powerful, purposeful
and principled way of addressing fundamental challenges relating to the nature of Man's relationship with Man, nature
and the environment and eco-system of the world in which we live. . .
As we stand in the Age of Unlocking Human Potential, for good or bad, we require leaders to step forward from all
walks of life who are capable of guiding the world through its current state to a more peaceful, prosperous and free
world. The next generation of Master Strategists will need to demonstrate a more powerful, purposeful and principled
way of addressing fundamental challenges relating to the nature of Man's relationship with Man, nature and the
environment and eco-system of the world in which we live. In the absence of this revolution we risk finding our
military, weapons, science, technology and culture spiraling out of our control. If we succeed, the outcome is no less
than the creation of a new civilization
The Master Strategist
The Person
The Master Strategist is capable of rising above the perceived rights and wrongs of a situation to identify a higher and
superior position that both parties could potentially give allegiance to. The Master Strategist determines how to take
whole, that is, without destruction. The Master Strategist does not over-react to individual events but realises that
such events must be seen in the context of a flow of events of past and potential future events.
The Book
Since the turn of the century, we have seen hopes of a new era of peace shattered by the attack of 9/11. We have
witnessed the US becoming embroiled in a divisive and seemingly unwinnable war in Iraq. We have looked on as
new nuclear rivalries have sprung up with Iran and North Korea. We have seen Europe struggle to define its place in
the New World Order. And we have observed the balance of world focus towards China and India as they have
continued their unprecedented economic rise.
What is the significance of all this? Are there random events or is there an underlying pattern? What is required of
leaders and individuals to propel the world in a more positive direction? The Master Strategist provides the means to
decipher these changes, offering unique insights into the issues and patterns that are defining the future, and pointing
the way to strategies for a freer and more peaceful and prosperous world.
Streams of Life
“Sometimes chaos appears to have order. So, we think we understand what we observe.”
The Book of Power, Purpose and Principle
In the opening year of the 21st Century, OECD countries allocated about USD 645 billion to research and
development. Three of the largest areas of investment were the fields of medicine, computing and weapons. The
success of this research is clear to all of us in the huge advances we have seen in the creation of cures for diseases
that were considered to be incurable, in the creation of the computational capability to understand things that
appeared to be mysteries and in the creation of bombs that could, if their owners wished, reach across boundaries to
destroy whole cities.
However, our strategies have giving us results that do not stack up with the breakthroughs we have made. Also at the
opening of the century, over 800 million people lived in hunger, 1.1 billion lacked access to safe water and 17 million
people died each year from curable diseases. Computing and internet technology was available to between 0.5% and
7% of the populations of Asia, Africa, Middle East and Africa compared to between 50% and 60% for North
Americans. Over 170 million people are estimated to have been killed through war and genocide in the 20th Century
alone.
Around the same time, 40% of the world had a television, 20% had a personal computer and 17% had a mobile
phone. We now have unique access to the cumulative information, knowledge and wisdom of Mankind at our
fingertips through the world-wide-web. This body of information is of course not complete but it is available in
enormous quantity and is growing at an exponential rate. It has already become available to a critical mass of the
population of the world and is set to spread all over the world regardless of race, creed, wealth, age or formal
education. The estimated time taken for a person with an internet connection to search a random piece of information
is a few seconds.
So, what does it all mean? Things are not as they seem. It is only the “surface” that moves to a “normal” pattern. This
creates an illusion. The simple equations underlying cause and effect that govern our existence mostly hold true and
this reinforces the illusion. The reality is that the simple equations are too simple. We need to look beneath the
surface to understand the potential results.
The flow of events, information and interpretation is endless. The high volume and the high aesthetic quality are now
combined and this stops us from questioning the meaning, We are no longer decoding the events.
Patterns
"There is a rhythm to the play. We do not hear the beat. We do not discern the rhythm. We cannot dance in line
with the tune. We hear fragments. We feel out of sync. We drown the fragments with noise. This noise appears
to be the play."
The Book of Power, Purpose and Principle
The need to see the patterns underlying apparently random events is an important part of the discipline
required to decode the stream of world events. A number of concepts must be added to our thinking to enable a
more “whole” view to be taken
… what appears to be chaotic at one level has a pattern if you are able to step back. When you lie on the beach
with your head upon the sand and look at the waves there is no discernible pattern to their form. This is true.
However, when you walk up the cliff and look down on the beach, you clearly see the pattern of the waves in
their ebb and flow. This is also true. The pattern may lead us to reach immediately for a conclusion about
waves in all circumstances. This is the trap of accepting simplistic formulae. Today’s world is constantly urging
us to accept simplistic formulae.
satisfaction
globe
and perpetrators
life
destroy
"The events in the world result from causes that we do not understand. The interrelatedness of these causes has
consequences that we do not understand. Our actions cause outcomes that we do not understand"
The Book of Power, Purpose and Principle
Given the unprecedented resources available to us today, how appropriate are our strategies and strategists for
addressing the multiplicity of challenges we face today?
The unfortunate answer is that we have been conned. At best we have erred. We have erred on the most
fundamental things. Erred in believing that the analysis will reveal the answer, erred in believing that we are
strategists, erred in believing that analytic frameworks, methods, models and formulae would make us strategists.
Our greatest educational institutions teach analysis and call it strategy. Our greatest corporations employ analysts
and call them strategists. Our greatest advisory institutions provide their clients with analysts and call them
strategists.
The current methods of developing strategy will not deliver progress of the order of magnitude and speed required. In
the field of strategy, we have not had a modern Renaissance and so we do not have the richness or diversity of
models to explain the world. However, the models we do have are taken literally and have resulted in narrow and
dangerous strategies. These strategies lead us to wage unnecessary wars, destroy the environment and over-
compete. The breakthroughs in strategic thinking since then have taken a more scientific approach in that they have
picked a more narrow domain and produced models to address that narrow domain. Unfortunately. given the lack of
investment in developing strategic thought, there have been too few breakthroughs in comparison to other fields and
so we are not well equipped to formulate strategy to deal with the complex series of growing and inter-connected
factors facing us today. The progress that we have made in the fields of science are not matched by those of strategy
and so we risk squandering the gains made by scientists.
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Rethinking Strategy
When the agenda for leaders changes to one focused on peace, prosperity and freedom, the very definition of` terms
changes such that:
equals the enhancement of equals the pursuit of that which equals the pursuit of truth, and
freedoms, as long as there is is required to achieve peace, this has no limits
no conflict with purpose and prosperity and freedom in a
principles manner fit for the
circumstances, as long as there
is no conflict with power and
principle
It is in Man’s nature to dream and aspire and then to endeavour, deceive and fight to achieve his dreams and
aspirations. Strategy is merely the word we give to the thought that goes into determining how we will prevail. Our
ego leads us to believe we should prevail. Our limited view leads us to believe that we understand the consequences
of our actions. Our lack of discipline leads us to seek shallow and short-term solutions to complex problems. These
facts will not change because they are fundamental constituents of the human condition. However, strategies can be
formulated that maximise the chance of delivering "good".
The strategists and leaders of today are equipped and trained to deal with far narrower and more static or slowly
changing environments. The best of our strategic thinking that takes a broad view of life and the world comes from
ancient sources such as Sun Tzu in 5th Century BC, Machiavelli in the 15th and 16th Century, Miyamoto Musashi in
the 17th Century and Clausewitz in the 19th Century. All of this thinking has its roots in military conflict and so has an
in-built bias in that direction. Such thinking is rarely studied in a way that uncovers a message of peace.
Rethinking strategy will require challenging the assumptions born of the legacy of our modern strategic approach. We
will have to question:
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The Master Strategist must rise above the conflicting bodes and identify a higher common
1
position.
The Master Strategist must determine how to take whole and thereby minimize waste and
2
destruction.
3 The Master Strategist must see an event as belonging within a flow of events and so must
react within the context of the flow not just the event.
Research Themes: Future of Strategy
The unusual explorations of history led to the great branches of today’s sciences. Alchemy fed into chemistry,
astrology into astronomy, cabbalism into mathematics and memory systems and labyrinths into libraries and
ultimately computing and information management. Many of the great figures of the Western scientific revolutions of
the 16th and 17th Centuries started and maintained an interest in what now appear to be the less rational fields.
Today’s Master Strategists need to examine a number of fundamental questions in order to shape or adapt to a
complex-chaotic situation and environment. The critical topics that will act as the impetus behind reaching the next
level of breakthrough thinking include:
Five: Inter-connectedness
When each of the above strategic paths has been explored by pioneering strategists, we will arrive at new strategic
principles, frameworks, techniques and actions. These will soon become fads and then, we will need to begin again.
To do this, we will need a calibre of strategist capable of creating new techniques, new approaches and new states of
existence to enable people and institutions to be at peace, to prosper and to be free.
Agenda - For a New Civilisation
There is no fixed agenda. There can be no fixed agenda for it would not grow and, so, it would
become irrelevant, and die.
Modern day breakthroughs in science and technology have laid the foundation for other
breakthroughs. Our ability to do the basic things that people do in life - work, entertain,
communicate, cure themselves, kill enemies – has also seen dramatic breakthroughs. This
explosion of breakthroughs has resulted in an explosion in information. The overload of
information suffocates our ability to make sense of what is happening. So, of course, we seek
answers.