Big Secret Trading Success 2020
Big Secret Trading Success 2020
www.kjtradingsystems.com
page 2
______________________________________________________________________________________________________
U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission states: Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large
potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't
afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, stocks or options on the same. No representation is being made that any account will or
is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily
indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE
RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS
MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED
TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO
REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL, OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE DISCUSSED
WITHIN THIS DOCUMENT. IF YOU DECIDE TO INVEST REAL MONEY, ALL TRADING DECISIONS SHOULD BE YOUR OWN.
Introduction
Thank you for joining my list. I hope you find many different ways to improve your
trading, based on my articles and videos.
As a special thank you, in this document you'll find what I consider the secret to
trading success. It is a simple concept, although to implement it properly you
need a solid foundation. I'll give that foundation, and more, in this report.
Warning
Before you go any further, make sure you read and understand the disclaimer at
the bottom of the page. The US government requires it, and it is there to protect
you. Keep this warning in mind when you look at trading systems - it will help
you immensely.
Of course, these kind folk will sell you the secret, for a few thousand dollars.
Well, in this report I'm going to give you my secret to trading success. For FREE.
That comes later. But first, I'd like to tell you what the secret is not. Knowing
what is not involved in the secret will help you take advantage of what the secret
is all about. You'll be able to stop wasting your time where most people expend
the most wasted effort, and instead concentrate on what really matters the most.
______________________________________________________________________________________________________
U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission states: Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large
potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't
afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, stocks or options on the same. No representation is being made that any account will or
is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily
indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE
RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS
MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED
TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO
REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL, OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE DISCUSSED
WITHIN THIS DOCUMENT. IF YOU DECIDE TO INVEST REAL MONEY, ALL TRADING DECISIONS SHOULD BE YOUR OWN.
Dr. Van Tharp once showed that even a random entry system could be
profitable, if the right exit management was selected. So much for entries being
the key! Now, I don't recommend you select entries at random, but realize that
entries are not the "be all and end all" of trading.
Don't get me wrong: entries are important, especially as your time duration
shrinks. Someone who is trying to scalp needs more accurate entries than
someone who is trading off of monthly charts. But entries are only a piece of the
trading puzzle.
The point is - try to select good entry methods, but realize entries are not the key
to success.
But really, once you are in a trade, there is only so much you can do. You are at
the mercy of the market. And the market has a way of tearing apart any "Holy
Grail" exit technique you think you have.
______________________________________________________________________________________________________
U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission states: Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large
potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't
afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, stocks or options on the same. No representation is being made that any account will or
is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily
indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE
RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS
MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED
TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO
REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL, OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE DISCUSSED
WITHIN THIS DOCUMENT. IF YOU DECIDE TO INVEST REAL MONEY, ALL TRADING DECISIONS SHOULD BE YOUR OWN.
So, just as with exits, don't waste time searching for that perfect exit. It is easier
to find a good exit than a great exit, and takes much less searching time, too.
The author's Holy Grail position sizing technique worked great, IF your account
equity grew in a certain manner. Basically, if you had more winning trades at the
beginning, you traded larger and then dialed back the aggressiveness as the
account grew. The problem is that if you start out losing, being overly aggressive
would kill your account. The Holy Grail suddenly became Holy $&#*$(!
And that is actually what happened to one of the author's account. He wiped out
an account using his Holy Grail position sizing method. So much for that idea.
That doesn't mean that position sizing should be ignored. Another author, Ralph
Vince, once said that 90% of performance was related to position sizing and
money management. Ralph is a very smart guy, as you can tell by reading and
studying his books. So, I agree with Ralph that position sizing is pretty important.
Plus, it dovetails nicely into what I feel is the real secret to trading success.
______________________________________________________________________________________________________
U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission states: Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large
potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't
afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, stocks or options on the same. No representation is being made that any account will or
is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily
indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE
RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS
MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED
TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO
REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL, OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE DISCUSSED
WITHIN THIS DOCUMENT. IF YOU DECIDE TO INVEST REAL MONEY, ALL TRADING DECISIONS SHOULD BE YOUR OWN.
Diversification means that you don't put all your trading eggs in one basket. To
take advantage of diversification, you have to diversify your trading:
Different markets
Different entries
Different exits
Different timeframes (bar sizes)
Different trade durations (intraday, swing, long term)
Different styles of trading
Different trading systems
Different position sizing approaches
The unsavory alternative to diversification is to trade just one market, with just
one trading system. Then, you are at the mercy of that market, and that system.
While it is possible that you will do fantastically well, the reality is that you are
much more exposed on the downside. For example, what if your one system
stops working? It could be "game over" for you. On the other hand, if you trade
5 systems, and one goes bust, you still have 4 other systems to make up the
difference. So, the downside is what you have to worry about, and that is where
diversification really helps.
______________________________________________________________________________________________________
U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission states: Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large
potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't
afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, stocks or options on the same. No representation is being made that any account will or
is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily
indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE
RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS
MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED
TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO
REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL, OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE DISCUSSED
WITHIN THIS DOCUMENT. IF YOU DECIDE TO INVEST REAL MONEY, ALL TRADING DECISIONS SHOULD BE YOUR OWN.
OK, so if diversification is so great, why doesn't the average retail trader hear
more about it? How come very few people talk about diversification?
Let's face it, there are a lot of little guys in trading. I should know, I was
one of them way back when, struggling to survive with my $5,000 account. I felt
lucky to trade one system back then, much less 4 or 5. I just did not have the
margin to be in many different trades. To be properly diversified, you need a
larger account. Most people, unfortunately, never get to that point.
4) It Is An Advanced Concept
In this fast paced, need it now Internet age, people want answers fast, and
don't want to take time to learn the right way to do things. People want to be
Warren Buffett, but most aren't willing to put the time or effort into learning
something complicated. Diversification takes analysis, and also requires multiple
trading strategies. It can be done, but it is work and it is tricky at first. But once
______________________________________________________________________________________________________
U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission states: Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large
potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't
afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, stocks or options on the same. No representation is being made that any account will or
is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily
indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE
RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS
MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED
TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO
REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL, OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE DISCUSSED
WITHIN THIS DOCUMENT. IF YOU DECIDE TO INVEST REAL MONEY, ALL TRADING DECISIONS SHOULD BE YOUR OWN.
you understand it, and develop trading algorithms to exploit it, diversification can
become a trader's best friend.
Diversification In Action
Here is an example with 2 futures trading systems. One trades Gold, and the
other trades the Euro currency. These systems are uncorrelated (a key part of
diversification, as I'll describe later).
First, let's look at some hypothetical return statistics for each alone.
Gold Euro
Profit $41,410 $41,512
Max Drawdown $11,830 $10.377
Profit/ Max DD 3.5 4.0
______________________________________________________________________________________________________
U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission states: Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large
potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't
afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, stocks or options on the same. No representation is being made that any account will or
is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily
indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE
RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS
MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED
TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO
REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL, OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE DISCUSSED
WITHIN THIS DOCUMENT. IF YOU DECIDE TO INVEST REAL MONEY, ALL TRADING DECISIONS SHOULD BE YOUR OWN.
Both of these strategies by themselves are decent enough. Of course, they have
drawdowns and flat periods, as does any real trading system. The "magic"
occurs when you trade them both at the same time.
______________________________________________________________________________________________________
U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission states: Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large
potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't
afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, stocks or options on the same. No representation is being made that any account will or
is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily
indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE
RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS
MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED
TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO
REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL, OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE DISCUSSED
WITHIN THIS DOCUMENT. IF YOU DECIDE TO INVEST REAL MONEY, ALL TRADING DECISIONS SHOULD BE YOUR OWN.
______________________________________________________________________________________________________
U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission states: Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large
potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't
afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, stocks or options on the same. No representation is being made that any account will or
is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily
indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE
RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS
MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED
TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO
REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL, OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE DISCUSSED
WITHIN THIS DOCUMENT. IF YOU DECIDE TO INVEST REAL MONEY, ALL TRADING DECISIONS SHOULD BE YOUR OWN.
Both traders have an identical option selling strategy, one that wins 90% of the
time. The only difference is that Trader C makes 2 trades per month, and Trader
D makes 10 trades per month. They use the same position sizing method, so
Trader C's wins and losses will always be 5 times as large as Trader D's (since
Trader D takes 5 times as many trades).
In one year, on average he'll win 24*.9 = 21.6 trades at $2.5 each = $54.
In one year, on average he'll lose 24*.10=2.4 trades at $10 each = -$24.
In one year, on average he'll win 120*.9 = 108 trades at $.5 each = $54.
In one year, on average he'll lose 120*.1=12 trades at $2 each = -$24.
OK, so overall, Trader C and Trader D, on average, will both earn the same
______________________________________________________________________________________________________
U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission states: Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large
potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't
afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, stocks or options on the same. No representation is being made that any account will or
is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily
indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE
RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS
MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED
TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO
REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL, OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE DISCUSSED
WITHIN THIS DOCUMENT. IF YOU DECIDE TO INVEST REAL MONEY, ALL TRADING DECISIONS SHOULD BE YOUR OWN.
return over time. Their performance looks equivalent, and it is as far as profits go.
The question is: would you rather be Trader C, or Trader D? Or does it even
matter?
Even though both traders, in this example, have the same average annual gain, it
turns out diversification matters a lot, especially if you are concerned with
drawdown and downside risk.
The answer has to do with standard deviation of the trade results. All other things
being equal, if you want to minimize the downside, you always want to strive for
the lowest standard deviation of trade results as possible. This leads to smaller
drawdowns, as one tangible benefit. The drawback is that it gives up some
upside potential.
If we look at Trader C's trades in one year (24 trades), his trade standard
deviation is: 3.53
If we look at Trader D's trades in one year (120 trades), his trade standard
deviation is: 0.75
Another way to show this is by running some Monte Carlo simulations, over 1
year's worth of trades. By showing final equity in a histogram, it is easy to see
that Trader C has a more widely dispersed set of results than Trader D. Again, if
everything else is the same, you want to have a tight distribution of final equity
values (unless you are only trying to maximize gain).
______________________________________________________________________________________________________
U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission states: Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large
potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't
afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, stocks or options on the same. No representation is being made that any account will or
is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily
indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE
RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS
MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED
TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO
REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL, OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE DISCUSSED
WITHIN THIS DOCUMENT. IF YOU DECIDE TO INVEST REAL MONEY, ALL TRADING DECISIONS SHOULD BE YOUR OWN.
Hopefully, these two examples make it clear that you want diversification,
whether it be by trading multiple systems, trading multiple markets, or
some other technique that produces uncorrelated results!
The easiest way to check for diversification is to check for correlation. Two items
are said to be correlated if the results are closely aligned. For example, let's say
that every day the Gold system above made money, the Euro system also made
money. And vice versa. Chances are, those systems would be very highly
correlated. For proper diversification, you want low/zero correlation.
You can easily create an Excel spreadsheet to check for correlation. Simply put
daily trading results for system A in one column, and System B in the other
column. Then, you can run Excel's Data Analysis - Regression tool, and you'll
get your results. You can also plot the results, and look at the R^2 value.
______________________________________________________________________________________________________
U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission states: Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large
potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't
afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, stocks or options on the same. No representation is being made that any account will or
is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily
indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE
RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS
MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED
TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO
REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL, OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE DISCUSSED
WITHIN THIS DOCUMENT. IF YOU DECIDE TO INVEST REAL MONEY, ALL TRADING DECISIONS SHOULD BE YOUR OWN.
The screenshot below shows both types of analysis for the Trender Gold and
Euro systems:
The correlation for these 2 strategies is .0039. This means the strategies are
practically non-correlated.
The opposite holds true on the negative side (R^2= -1 is perfect negative
correlation)
______________________________________________________________________________________________________
U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission states: Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large
potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't
afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, stocks or options on the same. No representation is being made that any account will or
is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily
indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE
RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS
MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED
TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO
REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL, OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE DISCUSSED
WITHIN THIS DOCUMENT. IF YOU DECIDE TO INVEST REAL MONEY, ALL TRADING DECISIONS SHOULD BE YOUR OWN.
OK, so now that you know that diversification can greatly enhance your trading
by smoothing the equity curve and reducing drawdowns. You also know how to
check for correlation using simple Excel tools. But the questions remains: how
do you achieve diversification?
______________________________________________________________________________________________________
U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission states: Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large
potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't
afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, stocks or options on the same. No representation is being made that any account will or
is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily
indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE
RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS
MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED
TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO
REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL, OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE DISCUSSED
WITHIN THIS DOCUMENT. IF YOU DECIDE TO INVEST REAL MONEY, ALL TRADING DECISIONS SHOULD BE YOUR OWN.
For me personally, I have tried many of the approaches listed above. In the end,
though, I found that creating my own systems, using my own "Strategy
Factory" approach, was the best way to achieve diversification through
trading multiple systems, markets, timeframes, etc.
______________________________________________________________________________________________________
U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission states: Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large
potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't
afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, stocks or options on the same. No representation is being made that any account will or
is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily
indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE
RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS
MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED
TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO
REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL, OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE DISCUSSED
WITHIN THIS DOCUMENT. IF YOU DECIDE TO INVEST REAL MONEY, ALL TRADING DECISIONS SHOULD BE YOUR OWN.
all its benefits can definitely be part of your trading experience. Details can be
found at the end of this report.
1) Create strategy #1, using walkforward testing (the best kind, short of real time
testing). The strategy has to have positive expectancy.
3) Begin to develop Strategy #2, taking care to change a few of the particulars
above. For example, if Strategy #1 is based on 30 minute Gold bars, try to build
a strategy on daily Crude Oil bars.
4) If you want to use the same exact strategy code for strategy #2, but just a
different market, make sure that a) the parameters of the strategy are different, or
b) that the price streams of the 2 instruments are non-correlated. For example,
don't try to trade the exact same system on ES (mini S&P) and TF (mini-Russell).
Chances are they results will be highly correlated.
6) Create strategy #3 just as you created #2. When you check for correlation
though, make sure you check strategy 1 versus strategy 3, and strategy 2 versus
strategy 3 (you already checked strategy 1 versus strategy 2 in step 5)). All
correlations should be as close to zero as possible.
______________________________________________________________________________________________________
U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission states: Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large
potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't
afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, stocks or options on the same. No representation is being made that any account will or
is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily
indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE
RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS
MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED
TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO
REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL, OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE DISCUSSED
WITHIN THIS DOCUMENT. IF YOU DECIDE TO INVEST REAL MONEY, ALL TRADING DECISIONS SHOULD BE YOUR OWN.
7) Continue the process until you have 4-6 non-correlated strategies. Once you
begin trading, you will be diversified!
Conclusion
So, that is the secret. One word, diversification, that says so much. Employ
diversification, and your trading career will be much easier. Ignore it, and trading
becomes a lot tougher. Trust me, I've been there and done that!
More Info
I hope you have enjoyed this report. If you like my material, please visit my
website: http://kjtradingsystems.com There you will find TONS of free
information of REAL trading.
Thanks!
______________________________________________________________________________________________________
U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission states: Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large
potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't
afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, stocks or options on the same. No representation is being made that any account will or
is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily
indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE
RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS
MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED
TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO
REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL, OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE DISCUSSED
WITHIN THIS DOCUMENT. IF YOU DECIDE TO INVEST REAL MONEY, ALL TRADING DECISIONS SHOULD BE YOUR OWN.