Probability
of Simple
Events
Probability of Simple Events
Life is full of random events!
You need to get a "feel" for
them to be a smart and
successful person.
The toss of a coin, throw of a
dice and lottery draws are all
examples of random events.
Probability of Simple Events
Objective:
Students will be able to find the probability of a
simple event.
Students will be able to understand the
distinction between simple events and
compound events.
Essential Question:
(1) How do I find the probability of a simple
event?
(2) How can I distinguish between a simple and
compound event?
Probability of Simple Events
Vocabulary: Some words have special meaning in
Probability
Experiment or Trial: an action where the result is
uncertain.
Outcome: one possible result of an experiment.
Simple Event: a specific outcome, just one of the
possible outcomes.
Sample Space: the list of possible outcomes
Random: outcomes that occur at random if each
outcome is equally likely to occur.
Complementary Events: the events of one outcome
happening (E) and that outcomes not happening
( not E) are complimentary or opposite; the sum of
the probabilities of complementary events is 1.
Probability of Simple Events
Definition:
Probability is the measure of the
likelihood that an event will occur
Probability does not tell us exactly what will
happen, it is just a guide
It is the ratio of
number of favorable outcomes
to the
total number of possible outcomes
CLASSICAL PROBABILITY
number of favorable outcomes
P(Event) = number of possible outcomes
Two Hypothesis :
Equally likely outcomes and Finished outcomes
Property
The probability is a number between 0 and 1
The probability of the certain event is 1
The probability of the impossible event is 0
in symbols:
Classical PROBABILITY
The probability of an Event can be
expressed:
as a FRACTION : 1/4
as Unitary PERCENTAGE
between 0 and 1 : 0.25
as a PERCENTAGE
between 0% to 100% : 25%
Probability of Simple Events
PROBABILITY LINE
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
0 ¼ or .25 ½ 0r .5 ¾ or .75 1
Impossible Not Very Equally Likely Somewhat Certain
Likely Likely
Examples
that use Probability
1) Flip a Coin,
2) Roll a Dice,
3) Spinners
4) Pick a card from a deck of 52 Cards
5) Choose at ramdom a ball from a box
Probability of Simple Events
Example 1: Flip a coin - Tossing a Coin
What is the probability of flipping a tail?
When a coin is tossed, there are two possible outcomes:
head (H) or tail (T)
P(event ) = # favorable outcomes
# possible outcomes
1 1
P(tail) = =
2 2
The probability is 1 out of 2 or .5 or 50%
Also… the probability of flipping a HEAD is ½.
TREE
Example 1
DIAGRAMM - FLIP A COIN
the sample space of events can be represented by
a tree diagram:
There are two
"branches" (Head and Tail)
The probability of each branch
is written on the branch
head tail
The outcome is written at the
end of the branch
Notes: the SUM of the probabilities
of the individual events is ONE ( Total Probability )
Here is a tree diagram for the toss
of a coin:
Probability of Simple Events
Example 2: Roll a dice - Throwing Dice
a) What is the probability of rolling a 4 ?
# favorable outcomes
P(event) =
# possible outcomes
1
P(rolling a 4) =
6
The probability of rolling a 4 is 1 out of 6
When a single dice is thrown, there are six possible outcomes
The probability of any one of them is 1/6 !
Example 2: Roll a dice.
b) What is the probability of rolling an even
number? ( or an odd number)
P(event) = # favorable outcomes
# possible outcomes
3 1
P(even #) = =
6 2
The probability of rolling an even number ( or an odd
number ) is 3 out of 6 or .5 or 50%
TREE DIAGRAMM
ROLL A DICE
on the branches
you must write
the probability
Notes: the SUM of the probabilities
of the individual events is 1 ( Total Probability)
Spinners
Example 3:.
What is the probability of spinning green?
P(event) = # favorable outcomes
# possible outcomes
1 1
P(green) = =
4 4
The probability of spinning green is 1 out of 4
or .25 or 25%
Pick a card from a Deck of
Example 4: 52 Cards
A deck of 52 cards includes thirteen ranks of
each of the four suits :
hearts (♥) , diamonds (♦) spades (♠) and clubs (♣)
Each suit has 10 numbered cards
and 3 figures : jack, queen and king.
Pick a card from a Deck of
Example 4
52 Cards
What is the probability of picking a heart?
# favorable outcomes 13 1
P(heart) = = =
# possible outcomes 52 4
The probability of picking a heart is
1 out of 4 or .25 or 25%
What is the probability of picking a not heart?
# favorable outcomes 39 3
P(nonheart) = = =
# possible outcomes 52 4
3 out of 4 or .75 or 75%
“heart” and “Not heart” are complementary (opposite) events !
P(notE) = 1- P(E)
Choose at random a
ball from the box
.
Example 5:
A box contains 5 red balls, 3 green balls and 2
yellow balls. What is the probability of :
a) choose at random a green ball?
# favorable outcomes 3
P(green) = =
# possible outcomes = 10
3 out of 10 or .3 or 30%
b) choose at random a red ball?
# favorable outcomes 5
P(red) = =
# possible outcomes 10 or .5 or 50%
Example 5: TREE DIAGRAMM
Chose at random a ball from the bag
Red Green Yellow
notes: the SUM of the probabilities of the
individual events is ONE (Total Probability)
