Assignment 3

Spring Semester 2020

ES 202 - Engineering Statistics

1. An early-warning detection system for aircraft consists of four identical radar units
operating independently of one another. Suppose that each has a probability of
0.95 of detecting an intruding aircraft. When an intruding aircraft enters the scene,
the random variable of interest is X, the number of radar units that do not detect
the plane. Is this a binomial experiment? If yes, what are its parameters and their
values?

Answer: (a) Yes (b) n = 4, p = 0.05

2. On a multiple-choice exam with 3 possible answers for each of the 5 questions, what
is the probability that a student will get 4 or more correct answers just by guessing?
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Answer: = 0.0453
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3. A purchaser of electrical components buys them in lots of size 10. It is his policy
to inspect 3 components randomly from a lot and to accept the lot only if all 3 are
nondefective. If 30 percent of the lots have 4 defective components and 70 percent
have only 1, what proportion of lots does the purchaser reject?

Answer: 46%

4. Two coins are to be flipped. The first coin will land on heads with probability 0.6,
the second with probability 0.7. Assume that the results of the flips are independent,
and let X equal the total number of heads that result.

(a) Find P r(X = 1).

(b) Determine E(X) and V ar(X).

Answer: (a) 0.46 (b) E(X) = 1.3; V ar(X) = 0.45

5. A satellite system consists of 10 components and functions on any given day if at

least 7 of the 10 components function on that day. On a rainy day each of the
components independently functions with probability 0.9, whereas on a dry day
this probability is 0.95. If the probability of rain tomorrow is 0.5, what is the prob-
ability that the satellite system will not function tomorrow?

Answer: 0.0069

6. Of all the new vehicles of a certain model that are sold, 20% require repairs to be
done under warranty during the first year of service. A particular dealership sells
14 such vehicles.

(a) What is the probability that fewer than five of the 14 vehicles require warranty
repairs?

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 (b) What is the probability that more than 2 of the 14 vehicles require warranty
repairs?

Answer: (a) 0.870 (b) 0.552

7. Of all the weld failures in a certain assembly, 85% of them occur in the weld metal
itself, and the remaining 15% occur in the base metal. A sample of 20 weld failures
is examined.

(a) What is the probability that exactly five of them are base metal failures?
(b) What is the probability that fewer than four of them are base metal failures?
(c) What is the probability that none of them are base metal failures?
(d) Find the mean number of base metal failures.
(e) Find the standard deviation of the number of base metal failures.

Answer: (a) 0.1028 (b) 0.6477 (c) 0.0388 (d) 3 (e) 1.597

8. A distributor receives a large shipment of components. The distributor would like

to accept the shipment if 10% or fewer of the components are defective and to re-
turn it if more than 10% of the components are defective. She decides to sample
10 components and to return the shipment if more than 1 of the 10 is defective. If
the proportion of defectives in the batch is in fact 10%, what is the probability that
she will return the shipment?

Answer: 0.2639

9. A k out of n system is one in which there is a group of n components, and the system
will function if at least k of the components function. Assume the components
function independently of one another.

(a) In a 3 out of 5 system, each component has probability 0.9 of functioning.

What is the probability that the system will function?
(b) In a 3 out of n system, in which each component has probability 0.9 of func-
tioning, what is the smallest value of n needed so that the probability that the
system functions is at least 0.90?

Answer: (a) 0.9914 (b) 4

10. Refer to previous problem for the definition of a k out of n system. For a certain
4 out of 6 system, assume that on a rainy day each component has probability 0.7
of functioning and that on a nonrainy day each component has probability 0.9 of
functioning.

(a) What is the probability that the system functions on a rainy day?
(b) What is the probability that the system functions on a nonrainy day?
(c) Assume that the probability of rain tomorrow is 0.20. What is the probability
that the system will function tomorrow?

Answer: (a) 0.7443 (b) 0.9842 (c) 0.93618

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11. A certain large shipment comes with a guarantee that it contains no more than
15% defective items. If the proportion of defective items in the shipment is greater
than 15%, the shipment may be returned. You draw a random sample of 10 items.
Let X be the number of defective items in the sample.

(a) If in fact 15% of the items in the shipment are defective (so that the shipment
is good, but just barely), what is P (X ≥ 7)?
(b) Based on the answer to part (a), if 15% of the items in the shipment are
defective, would 7 defectives in a sample of size 10 be an unusually large
number? Explain.
(c) If you found that 7 of the 10 sample items were defective, would this be
convincing evidence that the shipment should be returned? Explain.
(d) If in fact 15% of the items in the shipment are defective, what is P (X ≥ 2)?
(e) Based on the answer to part (d), if 15% of the items in the shipment are
defective, would 2 defectives in a sample of size 10 be an unusually large
number? Explain.
(f) If you found that 2 of the 10 sample items were defective, would this be
convincing evidence that the shipment should be returned? Explain.

Answer: (a) 1.346 × 10−4 (b) Yes (c) Yes (d) 0.4557 (e) No (f) No

12. A message consists of a string of bits (0s and 1s). Due to noise in the commu-
nications channel, each bit has probability 0.3 of being reversed (i.e., a 1 will be
changed to a 0 or a 0 to a 1). To improve the accuracy of the communication, each
bit is sent five times, so, for example, 0 is sent as 00000. The receiver assigns the
value 0 if three or more of the bits are decoded as 0, and 1 if three or more of the
bits are decoded as 1. Assume that errors occur independently.

(a) A 0 is sent (as 00000). What is the probability that the receiver assigns the
correct value of 0?
(b) Assume that each bit is sent n times, where n is an odd number, and that
the receiver assigns the value decoded in the majority of the bits. What is the
minimum value of n necessary so that the probability that the correct value is
assigned is at least 0.90?

Answer: (a) 0.8369 (b) 9

13. One design for a system requires the installation of two identical components. The
system will work if at least one of the components works. An alternative design
requires four of these components, and the system will work if at least two of the
four components work. If the probability that a component works is 0.9, and if
the components function independently, which design has the greater probability
of functioning?

Answer: Design with 4 components: 0.9963 > 0.9900

14. John likes to plays the ”pick-3” lottery game. In the ”pick-3” game, you choose
three single-digit numbers, each from 0 to 9, in order to match the winning number.

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 (a) If John buys a ”pick-3” ticket every day, what is the probability he will win
during the next year?
(b) How many days can he expect to wait until he wins the lottery?

Answer: (a) 0.3059 (b) 1000 days

15. (a) A traffic inspector is monitoring a busy intersection for moving violations. In
particular, he would like to find the probability that the first moving violation
occurs after the 30th car. Assume that whether or not cars have moving
violations is independent of each other, and that the probability that any
particular car has a violation is p. Calculate the desired probability for him.
(b) After 20 cars go by without a moving violation, a second inspector arrives on
the scene. He would also like to know the probability that the first moving
violation occurs after the 30th car. Calculate the desired probability for second
inspector.
Answer: (a) (1 − p)30 (b) (1 − p)30

16. Let X be a geometric random variable with parameter p. Prove that

1
(a) E(X) = .
p
1−p q
(b) V (X) = 2
= 2
p p
17. Applicants for a new student internship are accepted with probability p = 0.15
independently from person to person. Several hundred people are expected to
apply. Find the probability that it will take no more than 100 applicants to find 10
students for the program. Answer: 0.945

18. Sophia is making tomato sauce for dinner and needs 10 ripe tomatoes. In the local
supermarket, there is a 70% chance that a tomato is ripe.

(a) What is the probability that Sophia will need to sample more than 15 tomatoes
before she gets 10 ripe tomatoes?
(b) How many tomatoes can Sophia expect to sample until she gets what she
needs?

Answer: (a) 0.278 (b) 14.29

19. In a parliamentary election, it is estimated that parties A, B, C, and D will receive

20, 25, 30, and 25% of the vote, respectively. In a sample of 10 voters, find the
probability that there will be two supporters each of parties A and B, and three
supporters each of parties C and D.

Answer: 0.0266

20. A box has 3 green and 4 blue balls. Balls are picked at random without replacement
until we get a green ball. Let X be the total number of balls picked.

(a) Find the range set of X.

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 (b) Find the probability mass function of X and verify its correctness.
(c) Find the probability that we have to pick 3 balls to get 1 green ball.
(d) Find the probability that we have to pick at most 3 balls to get 1 green ball.
(e) Find the probability that we have to pick at least 3 balls to get 1 green ball.
(f) Find the average number of balls that we have to pick to get 1 green ball.

X 1 2 3 4 5
Answer: (a) RX = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5} (b) 3 2 6 3 1
P r(X = x) 7 7 35 35 35
6 31 10
(c) (d) (e) (f) 2
35 35 35
21. A box has 5 green and 3 blue balls. Balls are picked at random without replacement
until we get a 3 green balls. Let X be the total number of balls picked.

(a) Find the range set of X.

(b) Find the probability mass function of X and verify its correctness.
(c) Find the probability that we have to pick 5 balls to get 3 green balls.
(d) Find the probability that we have to pick at most 5 balls to get 3 green balls.
(e) Find the probability that we have to pick at least 5 balls to get 3 green ball.
(f) Find the average number of balls that we have to pick to get 3 green balls.

X 3 4 5 6
Answer: (a) RX = {3, 4, 5, 6} (b) 5 9 9 5
P r(X = x) 28 28 28 28
9 23 14
(c) (d) (e) (f) 4.5
28 28 28
22. A box has g green and b blue balls. Balls are picked at random without replacement
until we get a green ball. Let X be the total number of balls picked. Find a general
formula for the probability mass function of X.
b


g
Answer: P r(X = k) = k−1 g+b

× for k = 1, 2, ..., b + 1.
k
k

23. A box has g green and b blue balls. Balls are picked at random without replacement
until we get a r (r ≤ g) green balls. Let X be the total number of balls picked.
Find a general formula for the probability mass function of X.
g b



r
× k−r r
Answer: P r(X = k) = g+b

× for k = r, r + 1, r + 2, ..., b + 1.
k
k

24. People whose blood type is o-negative are universal donors - anyone can receive
a blood transfusion of o-negative blood. In the U.S., 7.2% of the people have o-
negative blood. A blood donor clinic wants to find 10 o-negative individuals. In
repeated screening, what is the chance of finding such individuals among the first
100 people screened?

Answer: 0.183

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25. A professor starts each class by picking a number from a hat that contains the
numbers 1-30. If a prime number is chosen, there is no homework that day. There
are 42 class periods in the semester. How many days can the students expect to
have no homework?

Answer: 14

26. A teacher writes an exam with 20 problems. There is a 5% chance that any prob-
lem has a mistake. The teacher tells the class that if the exam has three or more
problems with mistakes he will give everyone an A. The teacher repeats this in 10
different classes. Find the probability that the teacher gave out all A’s at least once.

Answer: 0.5438

27. The mean number of email messages received by a computer server is 6 per minute.
Find the probability that exactly 20 messages will be received in the next 3 minutes.

Answer: 0.0798

28. Suppose that 0.2% of diodes in a certain application fail within the first month of
use. Let X represent the number of diodes in a random sample of 1000 that fail
within the first month. Find

(a) P r(X = 4)
(b) P r(X ≤)
(c) P r(1 ≤< 4)
(d) µX
(e) σX .

Answer: (a) 0.0902 (b) 0.4060 (c) 0.7218 (d) 2 (e) 1.414

29. The mean rate of hits on a certain website is 4 per minute.

(a) What is the probability that five messages are received in a given minute?
(b) What is the probability that 9 messages are received in 1.5 minutes?
(c) What is the probability that fewer than three messages are received in a period
of 30 seconds?

Answer: (a) 0.1563 (b) 0.0688 (c) 0.6767

30. A sensor network consists of a large number of microprocessors spread out over
an area, in communication with each other and with a base station. In a certain
network, the probability that a message will fail to reach the base station is 0.005.
Assume that during a particular day, 1000 messages are sent.

(a) What is the probability that exactly 3 of the messages fail to reach the base
station?
(b) What is the probability that fewer than 994 of the messages reach the base
station?

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 (c) What is the mean of the number of messages that fail to reach the base station?
(d) What is the standard deviation of the number of messages that fail to reach
the base station?

Answer: (a) 0.1404 (b) 0.2378 (c) 5 (d) 2.2361

31. A random variable X has a binomial distribution, and a random variable Y has
a Poisson distribution. Both X and Y have means equal to 3. Is it possible
to determine which random variable has the larger variance? Choose one of the
following answers:

(a) Yes, X has the larger variance.

(b) Yes, Y has the larger variance.
(c) No, we need to know the number of trials, n, for X.
(d) No, we need to know the success probability, p, for X.
(e) No, we need to know the value of λ for Y .

Answer: Correct answer is (b)

32. A box contains 500 electrical switches, each one of which has a probability of 0.005
of being defective. Calculate the probability that the box contains no more than 3
defective switches.

Answer: 0.7576

33. On average there are about 25 imperfections in 100 meters of optical cable.

(a) What is the probability that there are no imperfections in 1 meter of cable.
(b) What is the probability that there is no more than one imperfection in 1 meter
of cable?

Answer: (a) 0.7788 (b) 0.9735

34. During last 5 years there have been 2 accidents on a production line. Based on this
information calculate the probability that

(a) there will be no accident in next 2 years.

(b) there will be at most 2 accidents in next five years.
(c) there will be at least 2 accidents in next five years.

Answer: (a) 0.4493 (b) 0.1247 (c) 0.9596

35. Let X be a Poisson random variable with parameter λ: X ∼ P (λ). Show that
E(X) = V(X) = λ.