Probability Theory

and
Probability Distribution

Reporter 1: Alyssa Villorente

Reporter 2: Mary Grace Verano
 Probability

The level of possibility that something will happen or

is true.

It is the ability to understand and estimate the

likelihood of any different combination of outcomes.
Weather Forecasting
Lottery Tickets
Politics
 Probability Theory

It is a branch of mathematics concerned with the

analysis of random phenomena.

 It is a branch of mathematics that evolved from the

investigation of social, behavioral, and physical
phenomena that are influenced by randomness and
uncertainty.
 Probability Distribution

 A listing of all the outcomes of an experiment and

the probability associated with each outcome.
 Characteristics of a Probability
Distribution
1. The probability of a particular outcome is between 0 and 1
inclusive.

2. The outcome are mutually exclusive events.

3. The list is exhaustive. So the sum of the probabilities of the

various events is equal to 1.
 Example

• When we tosses three coins and we are interested in

the number of heads, what should be the possible
outcome?
zero heads
one head
two heads
three heads
 Illustration
Possible Coin Toss Number of
Result First Second Third Heads

1 T T T 0
2 T T H 1
3 T H T 1
4 T H H 2
5 H T T 1
6 H T H 2
7 H H T 2
8 H H H 3
 Let’s Check
Number of Heads, (x) Probability of Outcome , P (x)
0 1/8 = .125
1 3/8 = .375
2 3/8 = .375
3 1/8 = .125
Total 8/8 = 1.000

 Probability Distribution for the events of zero, one, two and three heads
 Probability of the events is equal to 1
 Random Variables
• a quantity resulting from an experiment that, by
chance, can assume different values.

Example: In this experiment, we

are interested in the event that
one head occurs in three
tosses.
 Illustration
Possible Coin Toss Number of
Result First Second Third Heads

1 T T T 0
2 T T H 1
3 T H T 1
4 T H H 2
5 H T T 1
6 H T H 2
7 H H T 2
8 H H H 3

The result is P (1 head in 3 tosses) = 0.375 (i.e. 3/8)

Types of Probability Distribution

• Binomial Probability Distribution

• Poisson Probability Distribution
• Continuous Probability Distribution
• Uniform Probability Distribution
• Normal Probability Distribution
 Binomial Probability

 is a widely occurring discrete probability distribution

where there are only two possible outcomes on a
particular experiment (e.g. true or false, acceptable or
not acceptable);
 the random variable is the result of the counts, i.e. we
count the of success in the trials.
 the probability of a success remains the same from one
trial to another
 each trial is independent of any other trial
 Example

A young family has two children, both boys. The

probability of a third birth being a boy is

50%

i.e. the gender of the third child is independent of the

other two.
 Poisson Probability Distribution

the random variable is the number of times some

event occurs during a defined interval
the probability of the event is proportional to the
size of the interval
the intervals did not overlap and are independent
 Example

the number of scratches and imperfections in newly

painted car panels;
the number of defective parts in outgoing shipments;
the number of customers waiting to be served at a
restaurant

in other words… it is used to describe the

distribution errors in data entry
Uniform Probability Distribution

it is defined by a minimum and a maximum values

Example: an airline company has flight from Manila to

CDO, ranges from 60 minutes to 120 minutes
Normal Probability Distribution

it is bell-shaped and has a single

peak at the center of the
distribution
it is symmetrical about the
mean
it falls off smoothly in either
direction from the central value.
the location is determined by
the mean
 Calculating Probability Using SPSS

Given (Binomial Distribution)

X ~ B (n=6, P=0.2)
Find:
1. Probability when x= 0,1,2,3,4,5,6
Step 1: Go to Variable View and write X in Row 1; Decimals should be 0
Step 2: Go to Data View and type the numbers 0 – 6

Step 3: Go to Transform > Compute Variable

Step 4: Create a name in the
Target Variable

Step 5: Select PDF &

Noncentral PDF >
Pdf.Binom

Step 6: Under Numeric

Expression, fill in the given
data

Step 7: Click OK
 Calculating Probability Using SPSS

Given (Binomial Distribution)

X ~ B (n=6, P=0.2)
Find:
1. Cumulative Distribution when x= 0,1,2,3,4,5,6
 Calculating Probability Using SPSS

Given (Poisson Distribution)

X ~ P(n=2)
Find:
1. Probability when x = 0,1,2,3,4,5,6
2. Using Cumulative Distribution
 Poisson Probability Distribution

On the same Dataset, delete

the answers on Columns 2 &
3

Step. 1: X = 1, 2, 3 ,4 5, 6
Answer
Answer
 Calculating Probability Using SPSS

Given (Normal Distribution)

X ~ N (µ=6,o = 1.2 )
Find:
1. Cumulative Distribution for x = 3,3.5,4,4.5 to 7.5
2. X when P =0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8
 Normal Probability Distribution

On the same Dataset, delete

columns 2 & 3

Step. 1 X = 3, 3.5,4, 4.5,

5,5.5,6,6.5,7,7.5
Answer
Step. 1: Go to Variable View, type in Row 3 “Probability” then Decimals by 2

Step 2: Type the given data

Answer
Thank you
 Checkpoint

1. ________ is a branch of mathematics concerned

with the analysis of random phenomena
 Answers

1. Probability Theory
 Checkpoint

2. Give at least 2 characteristics of Probability

Distribution
 Answers

2. a. The probability of a particular outcome is

between 0 and 1 inclusive.
b. The outcome are mutually exclusive events.
c. The list is exhaustive. So the sum of the probabilities of the
various events is equal to 1.
 Checkpoint

3. ________ is a widely occurring discrete probability

distribution where there are only two possible
outcomes on a particular experiment (e.g. true or false,
acceptable or not acceptable);
 Answers

3. Binomial Probability
 Checkpoint

4. ________ the probability of the event is

proportional to the size of the interval
 Answers

4. Poisson Probability
 Checkpoint

5. Compute the probability of the given data using

binomial distribution:
x= 1,2,3,4,5
n= 5
p=.7
Using SPSS
Answers