Experiments on Probability

Objective:-To appreciate that finding probability through

experiment is different from finding probability by calculation. Students
become sensitive towards the fact that if they increase the number of
observations, probability found through experiment approaches the
calculated probability.

Description:- (i) The teacher asked us to either work individually or

at most in groups.
(ii) I collected the following data by visiting say 10 classrooms in the school.

(iii)
I obtained the fraction of number of children having their birthday in
the month of January, February, ÖÖÖÖÖÖDecember from the data
given in the table.
(iv) I made a pie-diagram from the recorded data.

(v) I investigated that fraction actually obtained in step 3 tallies with the
calculated probability obtained for each month.
If total no. of children whose birthday falls in month of January is 38
and the total number of students is 500.
The actual fraction of children born in January =

38/500 Probability for a child to have birthday in

January = 31/365

(vi)The students increased the sample size, i.e. increased the number of
observations and studied if the actual fraction approaches the calculated
probability. I used a random sample for this purpose.
Calculation of probability by using formula
(theoretical values)
Probability for a child to have Birthday in January = 0.08
Probability for a child to have Birthday in February (leap year) = 0.079

Probability for a child to have Birthday in March = 0.08

Probability for a child to have Birthday in April = 0.082

Probability for a child to have Birthday in May = 0.084

Probability for a child to have Birthday in June = 0.082

Probability for a child to have Birthday in July = 0.084

Probability for a child to have Birthday in August = 0.084

Probability for a child to have Birthday in September = 0.082

Probability for a child to have Birthday in October = 0.084

Probability for a child to have Birthday in November = 0.082

Probability for a child to have Birthday in December = 0.084

TABLE 1

Number of students having Birthday in various months in 1 class

Class No. of Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
students
VI C 61 12 4 1 3 2 1 9 3 6 9 6 5
 No. of Students

Dec
Jan
Nov

Feb
Oct
Mar
Apr

Sep May
Aug Jul Jun
Calculation of probability based on these observations (only 1 class of 61 students)

These are actual experimental values

௙௙௩௙௨௙௙௙௙௙ ௙௨௧௙௙௙௙௦ ଵଶ
Probability in month of January = = = 0.19
௧௙௧௙௙ ௙௨௧௙௙௙௙௦ ௙ଵ

௙௔௩௔௨௙௔௔௙௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦
Probability in month of February = = ସ = 0.06
௧௔௧௔௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦ ௙ଵ

௙௔௩௔௨௙௔௔ ௙௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦
Probability in month of March = = ଵ = 0.16
௧௔௧௔௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦ ௙ଵ

ଷ
Probability in month of April = ௙௔௩௔௨௙௔௔ ௙௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦
௧௔௧௔௙ = = 0.05
௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦ ௙ଵ

Probability in month of May = ௙௔௩௔௨௙௔௔ ௙௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦

௧௔௧௔௙ = ଶ = 0.03
௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦ ௙ଵ

Probability in month of June = ௙௔௩௔௨௙௔௔ ௙௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦ = ଵ = 0.16

௧௔௧௔௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦ ௙ଵ

Probability in month of July = ௙௔௩௔௨௙௔௔ ௙௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦

௧௔௧௔௙ = ଽ = 0.15
௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦ ௙ଵ

ଷ
Probability in month of August = ௙௔௩௔௨௙௔௔ ௙௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦ = = 0.05
௧௔௧௔௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦ ௙ଵ

Probability in month of September = ௙௔௩௔௨௙௔௔௙௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦ = ௙

= 0.09
௧௔௧௔௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦ ௙ଵ

Probability in month of October = ௙௔௩௔௨௙௔௔ ௙௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦ = ଽ = 0.15

௧௔௧௔௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦ ௙ଵ

௙௔௩௔௨௙௔௔ ௙௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦
Probability in month of November = = ௙
= 0.09
௧௔௧௔௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦ ௙ଵ

௙௔௩௔௨௙௔௔௙௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦
Probability in month of December = = ହ = 0.08
௧௔௧௔௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦ ௙ଵ
 Number of students having Birthday in various months in 2 classes

Class No. of Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
students
VI C 61 12 4 1 3 2 1 9 3 6 9 6 5
VI D 61 9 2 2 1 5 2 6 8 7 3 10 6

No. of students

Dec
Jan

Nov
Feb
Mar
Oct Apr
May

Sep
Jun
Jul
Aug
Calculation of probability based on these observations (only 2 classes122 students)

These are actual experimental values

Probability in month of January = ௙௔௩௔௨௙௔௔ ௙௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦ ଵଶ

= = 0.09
௧௔௧௔௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦ ଵଶଶ

௙௔௩௔௨௙௔௔௙௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦
Probability in month of February = =
ସ
= 0.03
௧௔௧௔௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦ ଵଶଶ

௙௔௩௔௨௙௔௔ ௙௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦
Probability in month of March = =
ଵ = 0.01
௧௔௧௔௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦ ଵଶଶ

௙௔௩௔௨௙௔௔ ௙௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦
Probability in month of April = ௧௔௧௔௙
=
ଷ = 0.02
௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦
ଵଶଶ

Probability in month of May = ௙௔௩௔௨௙௔௔ ௙௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦

௧௔௧௔௙ ଶ = 0.02
௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦ =
ଵଶଶ

Probability in month of June = ௙௔௩௔௨௙௔௔ ௙௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦

ଵ
= 0.01
=
௧௔௧௔௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦ ଵଶଶ

௙௔௩௔௨௙௔௔ ௙௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦ ଽ
Probability in month of July = ௧௔௧௔௙ = = 0.07
௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦ ଵଶଶ

Probability in month of August = ௙௔௩௔௨௙௔௔ ௙௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦ ଷ

= = 0.02
௧௔௧௔௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦ ଵଶଶ

௙௔௩௔௨௙௔௔௙௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦
Probability in month of September = =
௙ = 0.05
௧௔௧௔௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦ ଵଶଶ

௙௔௩௔௨௙௔௔ ௙௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦
Probability in month of October = =
ଽ = 0.07
௧௔௧௔௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦ ଵଶଶ

௙௔௩௔௨௙௔௔ ௙௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦
Probability in month of November = =
௙ = 0.05
௧௔௧௔௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦ ଵଶଶ
௙௔௩௔௨௙௔௔௙௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦
Probability in month of December = ହ = 0.04
௧௔௧௔௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦ =
ଵଶଶ
Number of students having Birthday in various months in 10 classes
Class No. of Ja Fe Mar Ap May Ju Ju Au Sep Oct Nov Dec
students n b r n l g
VI C 61 12 4 1 3 2 1 9 3 6 9 6 5
VI D 61 9 2 2 1 5 2 6 8 7 3 10 6
VII B 59 3 4 2 3 4 5 4 5 5 10 8 5
VIIIA 56 4 6 4 5 1 3 2 7 5 6 10 3
VIIIC 57 3 5 7 1 4 5 8 2 6 2 9 5
VIIID 61 8 2 10 3 8 5 1 6 4 6 4 4
IX B 60 6 2 5 1 4 6 6 4 3 5 5 13
IX D 58 12 6 7 2 3 5 1 4 2 4 5 7
XB 53 9 7 6 4 1 3 3 5 6 4 1 4
XD 54 8 1 4 6 3 7 8 2 7 1 2 5
Total 580 74 39 48 29 34 42 48 46 51 50 60 58
Probability in month of January = ௙௔௩௔௨௙௔௔ ௙௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦ ௙ସହ଼௙
= = 0.12
௧௔௧௔௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦
ଷଽ
Probability in month of February = ௙௔௩௔௨௙௔௔ ௙௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦ = = 0.06
௧௔௧௔௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦ ହ଼௙

Probability in month of March = ௙௔௩௔௨௙௔௔ ௙௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦ ସ଼଼ ହ଼௙

= = 0.08
௧௔௧௔௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦

Probability in month of April = ௙௔௩௔௨௙௔௔ ௙௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦ ଶଽହ଼௙

= = 0.05
௧௔௧௔௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦

௙௔௩௔௨௙௔௔௙௙ ௔௨௧௔௔ ௙௙௦

Probability in month of May = =ଷହ = 0.06
௧௔௧௔௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦ ହ଼௙

௙௔௩௔௨௙௔௔௙௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙ ௦
Probability in month of June = =ସଶ = 0.07
௧௔௧௔௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦ ହ଼௙

௙௔௩௔௨௙௔௔ ௙௙ ௔௨௧ ௔௔௙௙௦

Probability in month of July = =ସ଼ = 0.08
௧௔௧௔௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦ ହ଼௙

௙௔௩௔௨௙௔௔௙௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦
ସ
௙
Probability in month of August = = = 0.07
௧௔௧௔௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦ ହ଼௙

௙௔௩௔௨௙௔௔௙௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦
ହଵ
Probability in month of September = = = 0.08
௧௔௧௔௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦ ହ଼௙

௙௔௩௔௨௙௔௔ ௙௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦
ହ
௙
Probability in month of October = = = 0.08
௧௔௧௔௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦ ହ଼௙

௙௔ ௩௔௨௙௔௔௙௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦
௙௙
Probability in month of November = = = 0.10
௧௔௧௔௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦ ହ଼௙

௙௔௩௔௨௙௔௔௙௙ ௔௨௧ ௔௔ ௙௙௦

଼଼
ହ
Probability in month of December = = = 0.1
௧௔௧௔௙ ௔௨௧௔௔௙௙௦ ହ଼௙
 Month No. of children Angle
January 74 46
February 39 24.2
March 48 29.8
April 29 18
May 35 21.7
June 42 26.1
July 48 29.8
August 46 28.6
September 51 31.7
October 50 31
November 60 37.2
December 58 36
Total 580 360
Observation :- I observed that as the no. of students increases the
experimental probability and that calculated with formula become almost equal.