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File Perhitungan Gumbel

This document contains data and calculations related to analyzing maximum annual rainfall at 5 stations - Bili-Bili, Mangempang, Limbung, Jonggoa, and Malino - from 2014 to 2018 using the Thiessen polygon and Gumbel extreme value distribution methods. The Thiessen polygon method is used to calculate the weighted annual maximum rainfall for each station based on its relative area. The Gumbel method fits the annual maximum rainfall data to the Gumbel distribution to estimate rainfall values for various return periods. Calculations are shown for the Bili-Bili station as an example.

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77 views27 pages

File Perhitungan Gumbel

This document contains data and calculations related to analyzing maximum annual rainfall at 5 stations - Bili-Bili, Mangempang, Limbung, Jonggoa, and Malino - from 2014 to 2018 using the Thiessen polygon and Gumbel extreme value distribution methods. The Thiessen polygon method is used to calculate the weighted annual maximum rainfall for each station based on its relative area. The Gumbel method fits the annual maximum rainfall data to the Gumbel distribution to estimate rainfall values for various return periods. Calculations are shown for the Bili-Bili station as an example.

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Crash_system
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© © All Rights Reserved
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Reduced Mean (Yn) Dan Reduced Standard Deviation (Sn)

n Yn Sn n Yn Sn
8 0.48430 0,90430 51 0,54890 1.16230
9 0.49020 0,92880 52 0,54930 1.16380
10 0.49520 0,94970 53 0,54970 1.16530
11 0,49960 0,96760 54 0,55010 1.66700
12 0.50350 0,98330 55 0,55040 1.68100
13 0.50700 0,99720 56 0,55080 1.16960
14 0,51000 1.00950 57 0,55110 1.17080
15 0,51280 1.02057 58 0,55150 1.17210
16 0,51570 1.03160 59 0,55180 1.17340
17 0,51810 1.04110 60 0,55208 1.17467
18 0,52020 1.49300 62 0,55270 1.17700
19 0,52200 1.05660 64 0,55330 1.17930
20 0,52355 1.06283 66 0,55380 1.18140
21 0,52520 1.36960 68 0,55430 1.18340
22 0,52680 1.07540 70 0,55477 1.18536
23 0.52830 1.08110 72 0,55520 1.18730
24 0,52960 1.08640 74 0,55570 1.18900
25 0,53086 1.09145 76 0,55610 1.19060
26 0,53200 1.09610 78 0,55650 1.19230
27 0,53320 1.10040 80 0,55683 1.19382
28 0,53430 1.10470 82 0,55720 1.19530
29 0,53630 1.10860 84 0,55760 1.19670
30 0.53622 1.11238 86 0,55800 1.19800
TABEL 2

REDUCED STANDARD DEVIATION (Sn)

n 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
10 0.9496 0.9676 0.9833 0.9971 1.0000 1.0206 1.0316 1.0411
20 1.0628 1.0696 1.0754 1.0811 1.0864 1.0915 1.0961 1.1004
30 1.1124 1.1159 1.1193 1.1226 1.1255 1.1285 1.1313 1.1339
40 1.1413 1.1436 1.1458 1.1480 1.1499 1.1519 1.1538 1.1557
50 1.1607 1.1623 1.1638 1.1658 1.1667 1.1681 1.1696 1.1708
60 1.1747 1.1759 1.1770 1.1782 1.1793 1.1803 1.1814 1.1824
70 1.1854 1.1863 1.1873 1.1881 1.1890 1.1898 1.1906 1.1915
80 1.1938 1.1945 1.1953 1.1959 1.1967 1.1973 1.1980 1.1987
90 1.2007 1.2013 1.2020 1.2026 1.2032 1.2036 1.2044 1.2049
100 1.2065 - - - - - - -
TION (Sn)

8 9
1.0493 1.0565
1.1047 1.1080
1.1363 1.1388
1.1574 1.1590
1.1721 1.1734
1.1834 1.1844
1.1923 1.1930
1.1994 1.2001
1.2055 1.2060
- -
RETURN PERIOD
A FUNCTION OF REDUCED VARIATE

Return Periode ( T ) Reduced Variate


( years ) YT
2 0.3665
5 1.4999
10 2.2502
20 2.9606
25 3.1985
50 3.9019
100 4.6001
200 5.2960
500 6.2140
1000 6.9190
5000 8.5390
10000 9.9210
Analisis Luasan Poligon :
Luas
Nama Stasiun Area Bobot Persentase (%)
Km2

Bili-Bili Area 1 73.24 0.1211700086 12.12


Mangempang Area 2 102.45 0.1694957316 16.95
Limbung Area 3 110.18 0.1822844286 18.23
Jonggoa Area 4 123.23 0.2038746608 20.39
Malino Area 5 195.34 0.3231751704 32.32
Jumlah 604.44 1 100.00
Data Curah Hujan Harian Maksimum Dari Tahun 20014-2018 :
Curah Hujan (mm)
Tahun
Bili-Bili Mangempang Limbung Jonggoa Malino

2014 53 146 143 0 31


2015 117 161 126 10 0
2016 163 122 100 52 193
2017 54 177 138 131 51
2018 44 9 106 71 68

Urutan Data Curah Hujan Maksimum Tahunan :


Tahun Rmax (mm)
2018 62.64
2015 66.48
2014 67.26
2017 104.9
2016 131.65
Curah Hujan Harian Maksimum Tahunan Metode Poligon Thiessen
Stasiun Bili-Bili Stasiun Mangempang Stasiun Limbung
Tahun
Curah Hujan Area 1 Curah Hujan Area 2 Curah Hujan
(mm) (12.12%) (mm) (16.95%) (mm)

2014 53 6.42 146 24.75 143


2015 117 14.18 161 27.29 126
2016 163 19.76 122 20.68 100
2017 54 6.54 177 30.00 138
2018 44 5.33 9 1.53 106
Stasiun Limbung Stasiun Jonggoa Stasiun Malino
R max (mm)
Area 3 Curah Hujan Area 4 Curah Hujan Area 5
(18.23%) (mm) (20.39%) (mm) (32.32%)

26.07 0 0.00 31 10.02 67.26


22.97 10 2.04 0 0.00 66.48
18.23 52 10.60 193 62.38 131.65
25.16 131 26.71 51 16.48 104.90
19.32 71 14.48 68 21.98 62.64
I. METODE GUMBEL
A. Stasiun Bili-bili
Tabel I.1.
No Tahun X X2 SX
X =
1 2014 53 2809 n
2 2015 117 13689 431
=
3 2016 163 26569 5
4 2017 54 2916 = 86.2000 mm
5 2018 44 1936
5 S 431 47919 SX2-X.SX
Sx = ( )0,5
n-1

47919 - 86.2000 x
Sx = (
n = 5 Yn = 0.4843 4
Sn = 0,90430
T = 2 Tahun Yt = 0.3665 Sx = 51.8816
T = 5 Tahun Yt = 1.4999
T = 10 Tahun Yt = 2.2502
T = 25 Tahun Yt = 3.1985
T = 50 Tahun Yt = 3.9019
T = 100 Tahun Yt = 4.6001
T = 200 Tahun Yt = 5.2960

XTr = X + K. Sx Yt-Yn
,dimana K =
Sn
( 0.3665 - 0.4843 )
X2 = 86 + x 51.8816 = 79.44 mm
0,90430

( 1.4999 - 0.4843 )
X5 = 86 + x 51.8816 = 144.47 mm
0,90430

( 2.2502 - 0.4843 )
X10 = 86 + x 51.8816 = 187.51 mm
0,90430

( 3.1985 - 0.4843 )
X25 = 86 + x 51.8816 = 241.92 mm
0,90430

( 3.9019 - 0.4843 )
X50 = 86 + x 51.882 = 282.27 mm
0,90430

( 4.6001 - 0.4843 )
X100 = 86 + x 51.882 = 322.33 mm
X100 = 86 + x 51.882 = 322.33 mm
0,90430

( 5.2960 - 0.4843 )
X200 = 86 + x 51.882 = 362.26 mm
0,90430
B. Stasiun Mangempang
Tabel I.1.
No Tahun X X2 SX
X =
1 2014 146 21316 n
2 2015 161 25921 615
=
3 2016 122 14884 5
4 2017 177 31329 = 123 mm
5 2018 9 81
5 S 615 93531 SX2-X.SX
Sx = ( )0,5
n-1

93531 - 123.0000 x
Sx = (
n = 5 Yn = 0.4843 4
Sn = 0,90430
T = 2 Tahun Yt = 0.3665 Sx = 66.8693
T = 5 Tahun Yt = 1.4999
T = 10 Tahun Yt = 2.2502
T = 25 Tahun Yt = 3.1985
T = 50 Tahun Yt = 3.9019
T = 100 Tahun Yt = 4.6001
T = 200 Tahun Yt = 5.2960

XTr = X + K. Sx Yt-Yn
,dimana K =
Sn
( 0.3665 - 0.4843 )
X2 = 123 + x 66.8693 = 114.29 mm
0,90430

( 1.4999 - 0.4843 )
X5 = 123 + x 66.8693 = 198.10 mm
0,90430

( 2.2502 - 0.4843 )
X10 = 123 + x 66.8693 = 253.58 mm
0,90430

( 3.1985 - 0.4843 )
X25 = 123 + x 66.869 = 323.70 mm
0,90430

( 3.9019 - 0.4843 )
X50 = 123 + x 66.869 = 375.72 mm
0,90430
( 4.6001 - 0.4843 )
X100 = 123 + x 66.869 = 427.35 mm
0,90430

( 5.2960 - 0.4843 )
X200 = 123 + x 66.869 = 478.81 mm
0,90430
C. Stasiun Limbung
Tabel I.1.
No Tahun X X2 SX
X =
1 2014 143 20449 n
2 2015 126 15876 613
=
3 2016 100 10000 5
4 2017 138 19044 = 123 mm
5 2018 106 11236
5 S 613.000 76605 SX2-X.SX
Sx = ( )0,5
n-1

76605 - 122.6000 x
Sx = (
n = 5 Yn = 0.4843 4
Sn = 0,90430
T = 2 Tahun Yt = 0.3665 Sx = 19
T = 5 Tahun Yt = 1.4999
T = 10 Tahun Yt = 2.2502
T = 25 Tahun Yt = 3.1985
T = 50 Tahun Yt = 3.9019
T = 100 Tahun Yt = 4.6001
T = 200 Tahun Yt = 5.2960

XTr = X + K. Sx Yt-Yn
,dimana K =
Sn
( 0.3665 - 0.4843 )
X2 = 123 + x 19.0473 = 120.12 mm
0,90430

( 1.4999 - 0.4843 )
X5 = 123 + x 19.0473 = 143.99 mm
0,90430

( 2.2502 - 0.4843 )
X10 = 123 + x 19.0473 = 159.80 mm
0,90430

( 3.1985 - 0.4843 )
X25 = 123 + x 19.0473 = 179.77 mm
0,90430

( 3.9019 - 0.4843 )
X100 = 123 + x 19.0473 = 194.59 mm
0,90430

( 4.6001 - 0.4843 )
X200 = 123 + x 19.0473 = 209.29 mm
X200 = 123 + x 19.0473 = 209.29 mm
0,90430

( 5.2960 - 0.4843 )
X15 = 123 + x 19.0473 = 223.95 mm
0,90430
D. Stasiun Jonggoa
Tabel I.1.
No Tahun X X2 SX
X =
1 2014 0 0 n
2 2015 10 100 264
=
3 2016 52 2704 5
4 2017 131 17161 = 53 mm
5 2018 71 5041
5 S 264 25006 SX2-X.SX
Sx = ( )0,5
n-1

25006 - 52.8000 x
Sx = (
4
n = 5 Yn = 0.4843
Sn = 0,90430 Sx = 52.5994
T = 2 Tahun Yt = 0.3665
T = 5 Tahun Yt = 1.4999
T = 10 Tahun Yt = 2.2502
T = 25 Tahun Yt = 3.1985
T = 50 Tahun Yt = 3.9019
T = 100 Tahun Yt = 4.6001
T = 200 Tahun Yt = 5.2960

XTr = X + K. Sx ,dimana K = Yt-Yn


Sn
( 0.3665 - 0.4843 )
X2 = 53 + x 52.5994 = 45.95 mm
0,90430

( 1.4999 - 0.4843 )
X5 = 53 + x 52.5994 = 111.87 mm
0,90430

( 2.2502 - 0.4843 )
X10 = 53 + x 52.5994 = 155.52 mm
0,90430

( 3.1985 - 0.4843 )
X25 = 53 + x 52.5994 = 210.67 mm
0,90430

( 3.9019 - 0.4843 )
X2050 = 53 + x 52.5994 = 251.59 mm
0,90430
( 4.6001 - 0.4843 )
X100 = 53 + x 52.5994 = 292.20 mm
0,90430

( 5.2960 - 0.4843 )
X200 = 53 + x 52.5994 = 332.68 mm
0,90430

E. Stasiun Malino
Tabel I.1.
No Tahun X X2 SX
X =
1 2014 31 961 n
2 2015 0 0 343
=
3 2016 193 37249 5
4 2017 51 2601 = 69 mm
5 2018 68 4624
5 S 343 45435 SX2-X.SX
Sx = ( )0,5
n-1

45435 - 68.6000 x
Sx = (
4
n = 5 Yn = 0.4843
Sn = 0,90430 Sx = 74.0020
T = 2 Tahun Yt = 0.4843
T = 5 Tahun Yt = 0,90430
T = 10 Tahun Yt = 0.3665
T = 25 Tahun Yt = 1.4999
T = 50 Tahun Yt = 2.2502
T = 100 Tahun Yt = 3.1985
T = 200 Tahun Yt = 3.9019

XTr = X + K. Sx ,dimana K = Yt-Yn


Sn
( 0.4843 - 0.4843 )
X2 = 69 + x 74.0020 = 68.60 mm
0,90430

( 0,90430 - 0.4843 )
X5 = 69 + x 74.0020 = 102.97 mm
0,90430

( 0.3665 - 0.4843 )
X10 = 69 + x 74.0020 = 58.96 mm
X10 = 69 + x 74.0020 = 58.96 mm
0,90430

( 1.4999 - 0.4843 )
X15 = 69 + x 74.0020 = 151.71 mm
0,90430

( 2.2502 - 0.4843 )
X15 = 69 + x 74.0020 = 213.11 mm
0,90430

( 3.1985 - 0.4843 )
X15 = 69 + x 74.0020 = 290.71 mm
0,90430

( 3.9019 - 0.4843 )
X15 = 69 + x 74.0020 = 348.27 mm
0,90430

Hasil perhitungan Curah Hujan rata-rata (mm) Metode GUMBEL

Stasiun
No. Periode Ulang
Bili-bili Mangempang Limbung Jonggoa
1 2 79.44 mm 114.29 mm 120.12 mm 45.95 mm
2 5 144.47 mm 198.10 mm 143.99 mm 111.87 mm
3 10 187.51 mm 253.58 mm 159.80 mm 155.52 mm
4 25 241.92 mm 323.70 mm 179.77 mm 210.67 mm
5 50 282.27 mm 375.72 mm 194.59 mm 251.59 mm
6 100 322.33 mm 427.35 mm 209.29 mm 292.20 mm
7 200 362.26 mm 478.81 mm 223.95 mm 332.68 mm
431
)0,5
615
)0,5
613.000
)0,5
264
)0,5
343
)0,5
) Metode GUMBEL

Stasiun
Jonggoa Malino Rata-rata
45.95 mm 68.60 mm 85.68 mm
111.87 mm 102.97 mm 140.28 mm
155.52 mm 58.96 mm 163.07 mm
210.67 mm 151.71 mm 221.56 mm
251.59 mm 213.11 mm 263.46 mm
292.20 mm 290.71 mm 308.38 mm
332.68 mm 348.27 mm 349.19 mm
Analisis Frekuensi Curah Hujan

Data Curah Hujan (Xi) Xi-Xr (Xi-Xr)2 (Xi-Xr)3 (Xi-Xr)4


1 62.64 -23.95 573.41 -13730.90 328800.08
2 66.48 -20.11 404.25 -8127.88 163419.06
3 67.26 -19.33 373.49 -7218.15 139497.97
4 104.9 18.31 335.40 6142.56 112494.90
5 131.65 45.06 2030.76 91514.35 4124002.81
Jumlah 432.93 3717.32 68579.99 4868214.83

Rata-rata (Xr) 86.586


Penentuan Jenis Sebaran

Hasil
Jenis Sebaran Syarat Keterangan
Perhitungan

Cs = 0 1,00 Tidak Memenuhi


Normal
Ck = 3 5,87 Tidak Memenuhi
Cs = 3Cv+Cv2 = 1,971 1,00 Tidak Memenuhi
Log Normal
Cv = 0,06 0,35 Tidak Memenuhi
Cs = 1,139 1,00 Tidak Memenuhi
Gumbel
Ck = 5,402 5,87 Tidak Memenuhi
Jika tidak ada uji 1,00 Memenuhi
Log Person 3 parameter yang
memenuhi 0,35 Memenuhi
Analisis Curah Hujan Rencana dengan Distribusi Log Pearson III
Periode Curah Hujan
Xr K S
Ulang (mm)
2 86.586 -0.164 30.48 81.59
5 86.586 0.758 30.48 109.69
10 86.586 1.34 30.48 127.43
25 86.586 2.043 30.48 148.86
50 86.586 2.542 30.48 164.07
100 86.586 3.022 30.48 178.70
200 86.586 3.489 30.48 192.93
Jumlah Data : 5
1 + 3,322 log n
1 + 3,322 log 5
3.29218 dibulatkan menjadi 3 kelas

0.3 30%

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