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Assignment 2 Name: Wahyu Satyaning Budhi NRP: 03111850080002 S-2 Teknik Dan Manajemen Jalan Rel (TMJR) 2018

This document contains the solutions to 3 problems from an assignment submitted by Wahyu Satyaning Budhi, student number 03111850080002 of the S-2 Program in Railway Technology and Management at XYZ University in 2018. The problems involve calculating probabilities of binomial random variables and finding means and variances. Wahyu provides the calculations to find the probabilities of different outcomes as well as the means and variances of the random variables in each problem.

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Wahyu Satyaning Budhi
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69 views

Assignment 2 Name: Wahyu Satyaning Budhi NRP: 03111850080002 S-2 Teknik Dan Manajemen Jalan Rel (TMJR) 2018

This document contains the solutions to 3 problems from an assignment submitted by Wahyu Satyaning Budhi, student number 03111850080002 of the S-2 Program in Railway Technology and Management at XYZ University in 2018. The problems involve calculating probabilities of binomial random variables and finding means and variances. Wahyu provides the calculations to find the probabilities of different outcomes as well as the means and variances of the random variables in each problem.

Uploaded by

Wahyu Satyaning Budhi
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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ASSIGNMENT 2

Name : Wahyu Satyaning Budhi


NRP : 03111850080002
S-2 Teknik dan Manajemen Jalan Rel (TMJR) 2018

Problem 1.
Find the probability distribution of the random variable X if X~Bin(10,0.4). Find also P(X=5)
and P(X<2). Then find the mean and variance for X.
Solution.
a. X~Bin(10,0.4)
n = 10 p = 0.4
The random variable X are :
X=4
X=3
X=2

So, the probability from the random variables X are as follows :


𝑛
P(x) = ( ) 𝑝 𝑥 (1 − 𝑝)𝑛 −𝑥
𝑥
P(4) = 0.2508
P(3) = 0.2150
P(2) = 0.1209

b. X~Bin(10,0.4)
n = 10 p = 0.4
The variable X is 5 (X=5)
So, the probability from the variable X is as follows :
𝑛
P(x) = ( ) 𝑝 𝑥 (1 − 𝑝)𝑛 −𝑥
𝑥
P(5) = 0.2007

The variables X (X<2) are :


X=0
X=1
So, the probability from the variables X are as follows :
𝑛
P(x) = ( ) 𝑝 𝑥 (1 − 𝑝)𝑛 −𝑥
𝑥
P(0) = 0.0060
P(1) = 0.0403
∑(𝑃(0) + 𝑃(1) ) = 0.0463
Problem 2.
A fair die is rolled 8 times. Find the probability that no more than 2 sixes comes up. Then find
the mean and variance for X.
Solution.
a. The probability that no more than 2 sixes comes up are as follows :
X < 2 So, the probability that comes up 0 and 1 of six are :
n(S) = 6 x 8 = 48
x=0 n(A) = 40 P = 0.8333
x=1 n(A) = 8 P = 0.1667

Total of the probability is 0.8333 + 0.1667 = 1 (OK)

b. Mean and variance for X


Xx 0 1
P (X x) 0.8333 0.1667
X.P(X x) 0 0.1667
X².P(X x) 0 0.1667
x-µ -0.1667 0.8333
(x - µ)² 0.0278 0.6944
(x - µ)².P(Xx) 0.0231 0.1157

So, The mean for X is as follows :


Ex = µx = ∑ 𝑥. 𝑃(𝑋𝑥)
= 0.1667
So, The variance for X is as follows :
Vx = σx = ∑(𝑥 − 𝜇)2 . 𝑃(𝑋𝑥)
= 0.1389

Problem 3.
A large industrial firm allows a discount on any invoice that is paid within 30 days. Of all
invoices, 10% receive the discount. In a company audit, 12 invoices are sampled at random.
What is probability that fewer than 4 of 12 sampled invoices receive the discount?
Then, what is probability that more than 1 of the 12 sampled invoices received a discount.
Solution.
a. X~Bin(12,0.1)
n = 12 p = 0.1
The variables X (X<4) are :
X=3
X=2
X=1
X=0
So, the probability from the variables X are as follows :
𝑛
P(x) = ( ) 𝑝 𝑥 (1 − 𝑝)𝑛 −𝑥
𝑥
P(3) = 0.0852
P(2) = 0.2301
P(1) = 0.3766
P(1) = 0.2824
∑(𝑃(𝑥) ) = 0.9744

b. X~Bin(12,0.1)
n = 12 p = 0.1

The variables X more than 1 (1< X ≤12) are :


𝑛
P(x) = ( ) 𝑝 𝑥 (1 − 𝑝)𝑛 −𝑥
𝑥

So, the probability from the variables X are as follows :

No X P (x)
1 2 0.230127770466
2 3 0.085232507580
3 4 0.021308126895
4 5 0.003788111448
5 6 0.000491051484
6 7 0.000046766808
7 8 0.000003247695
8 9 0.000000160380
9 10 0.000000005346
10 11 0.000000000108
11 12 0.000000000001

∑(𝑃(𝑥) ) = 0.34099774821

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