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What Is Travel Demand Modeling

Travel demand modeling is a four-step process used to forecast transportation needs: (1) Trip generation estimates the number of trips in a region, (2) Trip distribution determines where trips originate and destinations, (3) Mode choice predicts how people will travel, and (4) Trip assignment outlines the routes people will take. This process relies on data about land use, socioeconomics, and transportation infrastructure to create a model of existing travel patterns that can be used to evaluate "what if" scenarios for transportation planning and decision making.

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Mahindra Deshmukh
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89 views2 pages

What Is Travel Demand Modeling

Travel demand modeling is a four-step process used to forecast transportation needs: (1) Trip generation estimates the number of trips in a region, (2) Trip distribution determines where trips originate and destinations, (3) Mode choice predicts how people will travel, and (4) Trip assignment outlines the routes people will take. This process relies on data about land use, socioeconomics, and transportation infrastructure to create a model of existing travel patterns that can be used to evaluate "what if" scenarios for transportation planning and decision making.

Uploaded by

Mahindra Deshmukh
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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What is Travel Demand Modeling?

Travel analysis incorporates a wide spectrum of topics as part of regional transportation planning
activities. In general, travel analysis is performed to assist decision makers in making informed
transportation planning decisions. The strength of modern travel demand forecasting is the
ability to ask critical “what if” questions about proposed plans and policies.

To do this, we use a travel demand forecasting model - a computer model used to estimate travel
behavior and travel demand for a specific future time frame, based on a number of assumptions.

How does a travel demand model work?


Traditionally, an approach known as the “four-step process” has been used for regional
transportation planning analysis. As its name implies, this process has four basic phases:

1. Trip generation (the number of trips to be made);


2. Trip distribution (where those trips go);
3. Mode choice (how the trips will be divided among the available modes of travel); and
4. Trip assignment (predicting the route trips will take).

By looking at these four areas, we can answer the following questions:

How many trips will people make?


Looking at land use characteristics (i.e. how we use land in our region) is the main way to figure
out trip generation rates. This is because factors like the number and size of households,
automobile ownership, types of activities (residential, commercial industrial, etc.), and density of
development all drive how much travel flows from or to a specific area within the region.

For simplicity, a geographic unit called a transportation analysis zone (TAZ) is used to create trip
generation rates for the region. Specifically, a number of existing or projected characteristics
within the TAZ are used for this. In Virginia, the number of TAZs can vary widely depending on
the size of the model region from about 200 for some of the small model regions to over 2,000
for the Washington, DC regional model .

Where will jobs and people locate?


Once the model generates a certain number of trips from each TAZ, it needs to determine to
which zone each trip goes. This is called trip distribution and the analysis involves a
sophisticated process for weighting the “attractiveness” of each TAZ based on the number of
attractions it has and the travel time from other TAZs. This step leads to a picture of origin and
destination points within the region and how many trips are going between each pair of TAZs.
For large model regions this can be an extremely large origin-destination matrix, e.g., over 2,000
x 2,000 for Washington, DC, a total of over 4,000,000 matrix cells!

How will people travel?


Mode choice shows which mode people use to travel between their origins and destinations.
That is, whether people take transit, their own car, or a carpool to and from work or another
destination.
A complex sub-model has been created for determining the modal choice, and is based both on
certain assumptions about transit capacity, schedules, and fare levels and on real-world
observations of how, when, and where people use transit.

What routes will people take?


Trip assignment determines the routes people will take from start (origin) to finish (destination).
Generally, the computer assumes everyone will take the quickest route to their destination. To
compute route selection requires all kinds of information regarding actual or predicted
congestion levels, road conditions, transit schedules and fares, traffic signal systems, etc.

How do we know the model predicts reasonable trips?


Once the four steps are completed, the model provides planners with a picture of existing travel
patterns. The results are then given a reality check. Modelers check with planning staff to make
sure the numbers make sense, and cross-check how well the model predicts current “observed”
data, such as park-and-ride utilization and highway vehicle traffic counts. This “checking” is
called a validation. Model validations are generally done at least once a decade.

What can the model tell us?


Travel demand model results can assist decision makers in making informed transportation
planning decisions. The results from the model vary depending on the ideas and information
used and the sophistication of the particular model. Small models generally provide users with
forecasted highway volumes for roadways with functional classes of minor arterial and above.
Large model regions generally provide users with everything included in small models and
transit forecasts. Some more sophisticated models also provide users with information on truck
forecasts, college/university travel, HOV travel, and the effects of toll strategies on travel
behavior. Because of their aggregate nature and regional scope, travel demand models are not
designed to forecast bicycle or pedestrian trips.

What resources are available to update Virginia Travel Demand Models?


The latest updates to model development programs are being fostered by the federal
government’s Travel Model Improvement Program. This is a cooperative effort by which travel
demand model professionals and users are attempting to bring more accuracy and robustness to
regional models. The Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT), Virginia Planning District
Commissions, and Virginia MPOs are also working cooperatively through the Virginia
Transportation Modeling (VTM) user’s group to ensure that census, household travel survey,
land use, and other necessary data is provided for modeling efforts given available resources.

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