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EE 3 Assignment 3

This document contains demand forecasting data for 8 years broken into quarters. It includes the actual demand, seasonal factors, forecasted demand levels, trends, errors between actual and forecasted demand, and error percentages. Overall, the mean forecast error was -0.07, the mean absolute error was 1.985, and the mean absolute percentage error was 1.539%.

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raymond balite
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15 views

EE 3 Assignment 3

This document contains demand forecasting data for 8 years broken into quarters. It includes the actual demand, seasonal factors, forecasted demand levels, trends, errors between actual and forecasted demand, and error percentages. Overall, the mean forecast error was -0.07, the mean absolute error was 1.985, and the mean absolute percentage error was 1.539%.

Uploaded by

raymond balite
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Forecast Forecast

Seasonal Absolute
Year Quarter Demand Level Trend Error Error
Factor
1 72 0.686
2 116 1.105
1
3 136 1.295
4 96 105.000 2.000 0.914 0.000 0.000 0.000
1 77 108.588 2.476 0.693 73.371 3.629 3.629
2 123 111.145 2.501 1.105 122.699 0.301 0.301
2
3 146 113.369 2.417 1.293 147.199 -1.199 1.199
4 101 114.191 1.939 0.905 105.862 -4.862 4.862
1 81 116.369 2.011 0.694 80.447 0.553 0.553
2 131 118.421 2.023 1.106 130.849 0.151 0.151
3
3 158 120.969 2.181 1.297 155.736 2.264 2.264
4 109 122.324 1.933 0.901 111.493 -2.493 2.493
1 87 124.602 2.036 0.695 86.201 0.799 0.799
2 140 126.636 2.036 1.106 140.012 -0.012 0.012
4
3 167 128.699 2.044 1.297 166.880 0.120 0.120
4 120 131.473 2.263 0.905 117.808 2.192 2.192
1 94 134.186 2.398 0.697 92.957 1.043 1.043
2 147 135.497 2.072 1.099 151.004 -4.004 4.004
5
3 177 137.235 1.972 1.295 178.447 -1.447 1.447
4 128 139.896 2.178 0.908 125.921 2.079 2.079
1 102 143.373 2.568 0.701 98.984 3.016 3.016
2 162 146.365 2.695 1.102 160.443 1.557 1.557
6
3 191 148.592 2.555 1.292 193.023 -2.023 2.023
4 134 150.091 2.238 0.903 137.194 -3.194 3.194
1 106 151.986 2.135 0.700 106.802 -0.802 0.802
2 170 154.181 2.153 1.102 169.781 0.219 0.219
7
3 200 155.871 2.014 1.289 201.994 -1.994 1.994
4 142 157.684 1.954 0.902 142.605 -0.605 0.605
1 115 161.031 2.372 0.704 111.750 3.250 3.250
2 177 162.571 2.122 1.098 180.054 -3.054 3.054
8
3 218 166.007 2.516 1.297 212.353 5.647 5.647
4 149 167.501 2.209 0.899 152.078 -3.078 3.078
-1.947 55.588

Mean Forecast Error (MFE) -0.070


Mean Absolute Error (MAE) 1.985
Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)
Percent
Error

0.000
0.047 α = 0.3
0.002 ß= 0.3
0.008 Ÿ= 0.3
0.048 m= 1
0.007 T= 1
0.001
0.014
0.023
0.009
0.000
0.001
0.018
0.011
0.027
0.008
0.016
0.030
0.010
0.011
0.024
0.008
0.001
0.010
0.004
0.028
0.017
0.026
0.021
0.431

1.539%

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