EFM Simple DCF Model 4
EFM Simple DCF Model 4
DCF Model
Last updated
May 17th, 2018
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Abbreviations
A Actual figure
CAPEX Capital Expenditures
COGS Cost of goods sold
DCF Discounted Free Cash Flows
D&A Depreciation & Amortization
EBIT Earnings before interest and taxes
EBITDA Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization
EV Enteprise Value
F Forecasted figure
NPV Net Present Value
OPEX Operating costs
P/B Price to Book Ratio
P/E Price Earnings Ratio
ROE Return on Equity
ROIC Return on Invested Capital
t Tax rate %
TV Terminal Value
USD United States Dollar
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Implied Multiples
EV/EBITDA x 4.7x
PE x 2.0x
P/B x 4.6x
General Assumptions
Currency USD
First Forecast Year Year 2019
Interest rate % 4%
Tax rate % 25%
Days Receivables Days Sales 60
Days Inventory Days COGS 70
Days Payables Days COGS 45
Revenues EBITDA %
8,000,000 25.0%
7,000,000
20.0%
6,000,000
5,000,000 15.0%
4,000,000
3,000,000 10.0%
2,000,000
5.0%
1,000,000
0 0.0%
2016 A 2017 A 2018 A 2019 A 2020 A 2021 A 2022 A 2023 A
Revenues USD 3,800,000 4,500,000 5,000,000 5,500,000 5,775,000 6,063,750 6,366,938 6,685,284
Growth 18% 11% 10% 5% 5% 5% 5%
COGS USD (1,800,000) (2,500,000) (2,600,000) (2,970,000) (3,118,500) (3,274,425) (3,438,146) (3,610,054)
Gross Margin USD 2,000,000 2,000,000 2,400,000 2,530,000 2,656,500 2,789,325 2,928,791 3,075,231
% % 52.6% 44.4% 48.0% 46.0% 46.0% 46.0% 46.0% 46.0%
Sales & Marketing USD (290,000) (330,000) (450,000) (459,000) (500,000) (600,000) (600,000) (690,000)
General & Admin USD (300,000) (350,000) (800,000) (816,000) (900,000) (600,000) (800,000) (850,000)
Other operating expenses USD (600,000) (330,000) (330,000) (400,000) (400,000) (440,000) (460,000) (440,000)
OPEX USD (1,190,000) (1,010,000) (1,580,000) (1,675,000) (1,800,000) (1,640,000) (1,860,000) (1,980,000)
EBITDA USD 810,000 990,000 820,000 855,000 856,500 1,149,325 1,068,791 1,095,231
% % 21.3% 22.0% 16.4% 15.5% 14.8% 19.0% 16.8% 16.4%
Depreciation & Amortization USD (200,000) (200,000) (220,000) (153,333) (183,333) (216,667) (243,333) (400,000)
EBIT USD 610,000 790,000 600,000 701,667 673,167 932,658 825,458 695,231
% % 16.1% 17.6% 12.0% 12.8% 11.7% 15.4% 13.0% 10.4%
Interest payment USD (13,333) (40,000) (48,000) (138,000) (132,000) (124,000) (116,000) (108,000)
Interest rate % 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
EBT USD 596,667 750,000 552,000 563,667 541,167 808,658 709,458 587,231
% % 15.7% 16.7% 11.0% 10.2% 9.4% 13.3% 11.1% 8.8%
Cash USD 200,000 937,500 679,500 348,049 181,881 346,896 361,270 537,587
Receivables USD 600,000 550,000 600,000 904,110 949,315 996,781 1,046,620 1,098,951
Inventory USD 450,000 550,000 600,000 569,589 598,068 627,972 659,371 692,339
Fixed Assets USD 1,900,000 2,000,000 2,300,000 2,596,667 2,913,333 3,096,667 3,353,333 3,353,333
Total Assets USD 3,150,000 4,037,500 4,179,500 4,418,414 4,642,598 5,068,315 5,420,593 5,682,210
Payables USD 230,000 330,000 450,000 366,164 384,473 403,696 423,881 445,075
Financial debt USD 3,900,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,400,000 3,200,000 3,000,000 2,800,000 2,600,000
Equity USD (980,000) (292,500) 229,500 652,250 1,058,125 1,664,619 2,196,712 2,637,135
Liabilities & Shareholder's Equity USD 3,150,000 4,037,500 4,179,500 4,418,414 4,642,598 5,068,315 5,420,593 5,682,210
Check 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Change in Cash USD 737,500 (258,000) (331,451) (166,168) 165,015 14,374 176,318
Cash beginning USD 200,000 937,500 679,500 348,049 181,881 346,896 361,270
Cash end of month USD 937,500 679,500 348,049 181,881 346,896 361,270 537,587
Financial Debt / EBITDA x 4.8x 4.0x 4.3x 4.0x 3.7x 2.6x 2.6x 2.4x
Debt Service Coverage x NA NA NA -0.5x 0.4x 1.4x 1.0x 19.3x
EBIT/Interest x 45.8x 19.8x 12.5x 5.1x 5.1x 7.5x 7.1x 6.4x
Current Ratio x 5.4x 6.2x 4.2x 5.0x 4.5x 4.9x 4.9x 5.2x
Days Receivables Days Sales 58 45 44 60 60 60 60 60
Days Inventory Days COGS 91 80 84 70 70 70 70 70
Days Payables Days COGS 47 48 63 45 45 45 45 45
EBITDA Margin % 21.3% 22.0% 16.4% 15.5% 14.8% 19.0% 16.8% 16.4%
Revenue growth % NA 18.4% 11.1% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
ROIC % NA NA NA 15.6% 13.0% 16.7% 13.8% 11.2%
ROE % -54.8% -108.1% -1657.1% 95.9% 47.5% 44.6% 27.6% 18.2%
Revenues/Assets x 1.2x 1.1x 1.2x 1.2x 1.2x 1.2x 1.2x 1.2x
Invested Capital USD 2,720,000 2,770,000 3,050,000 3,704,201 4,076,244 4,317,723 4,635,443 4,699,548
Fixed Assets (Gross) USD 2,300,000 2,750,000 3,250,000 3,650,000 4,150,000 4,550,000
Depreciation
2018 A 2,300,000 153,333 153,333 153,333 153,333 153,333
2019 F 450,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000
2020 F 500,000 33,333 33,333 33,333
2021 F 400,000 26,667 26,667
2022 F 500,000 33,333
Fixed Assets (Net) USD 2,300,000 2,596,667 2,913,333 3,096,667 3,353,333 3,353,333
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