Binomial
Distribution
Binomial Experiment
The binomial experiment consists of a fixed number of
trials: n
Each trial has two possible outcomes: success and
failure.
The probability of success is p. The probability of
failure is 1 – p.
The trials are independent.
Binomial random variable is the number of success in n trials.
Each trial is a Bernoulli process if properties 2 – 4 are satisfied.
Example of Binomial experiment
Flip a coin 10 times.
Draw 5 cards out of a shuffled deck.
A political survey asks 1500 voters whom
they intend to vote.
Binomial Probability Distribution
x = number of successes in binomial experiment with n trials.
x takes values 0, 1, 2, … , n, therefore, it is discrete.
n – x = number of failures.
Probability that there are x successes and n – x failures:
p x (1 p) n x
Number of ways to get x successes and n – x failures:
n!
C
n
x!(n x)!
x
where n!=n(n – 1)(n – 2) · · · (2)(1), e.g. 0!=1, 3!=3(2)(1)=6.
Binomial Probability Distribution
Formula
The probability of x successes in a binomial
experiment with n trials and probability of
success p is
n! n x
P( x ) p (1 p) for x 0, 1, ..., n
x
x!(n x )!
Example 1
A quiz consists of 10 multiple-choice questions.
Each question has 5 possible answers, only one of
which is correct. Pat plans to guess the answer to
each question. Find the probability that Pat gets
a. one answer correct.
b. all 10 answers correct.
ANSWER
n!
Formula P( x ) p x (1 p)n x
x!(n x )!
Solution: n = 10, p = 1/5 = 0.2
10!
a. P(1) (0.2)1 (1 0.2)101 10(0.2)(0.8)9 .2684
1!(10 1)!
10!
b. P(10) (0.2)10 (1 0.2)1010 1(0.2)10 (1) .0000001
10!(10 10)!
Table probability
x 0 1 2 3 4 5
P(x) 0.107 0.268 0.302 0.201 0.88 0.026
Example 2
In the “Pepsi Challenge” a random sample of 20
subjects are asked to try two unmarked cups of
pop (Pepsi and Coke) and choose which one
they prefer. If preference is based solely on
chance what is the probability that:
a) 6 will prefer Pepsi?
b) 12 will prefer Coke?
ANSWER
n!
Formula P( x ) p x (1 p ) n x
x! ( n x )!
P( x 6)[ p .05, n 20] )
20!
a ) P ( 6) (0.5)6 (1 0.5) 206
6! ( 20 6)!
0.037
20!
b) P(12) (0.5)12 (1 0.5) 2012
12! ( 20 12)!
0.1201
Cumulative Probability
c) at least 15 will prefer Pepsi?
P(at least 15) = P(15) + P(16) + P(17) + P(18) + P(19) + P(20)
P(X ≥ 15) = 1 – P(X ≤ 14) = 1 – 0.9793 = 0.0207
d) at most 8 will prefer Coke?
P(at most 8) = P(0) + P(1) + P(2) + … + P(6) + P(7) + P(8)
P(X ≤ 8) = 0.2517
Mean and Variance of a Binomial
Distribution
Mean , μ = np
Variance, σ2 = np(1 – p)
Standard Deviation, σ = √ np(1 – p)
Example: If a class is full of students like Pat, what is the
mean mark? What is the standard deviation?
Solution: given n= 10 p = 0.2
μ = np = 10(0.2) = 2
σ2 = np(1 – p) =2( 1- 0.2) = 1.6
σ = √ 1.6
= 1.26
Exercise 1
Eggs are packed in boxes of 12. The probability that
each egg is broken is 0.35
Find the probability in a random box of eggs:
a. There are 4 broken eggs.
b. There are less than 3 broken eggs
c. Calculate the mean, variance and standard
deviation
Answer
12!
a. P( X 4) (0.35) 4 (1 0.35)124
4! (12 4)!
495 * (0.015) * (0.032)
0.235
b. P( X 3) P( X 0) P( X 1) P( X 2)
12C0 0.350 0.6512 12C1 0.351 0.6511 C2 0.35 0.65
12 2 10
1 1 0.005688 12 0.351 0.6511 66 0.1225 0.01346
0.0151
Answer
c. i) Mean , μ = np
μ = 12 x 0.35
μ = 42
ii) Variance, 2
np(1 p)
= 12 x 0.35 ( 1-0.35)
= 2.73
iii) Standard Deviation, 2
2.73
1.65
