PROBABILITY

I. SAMPLE SPACE In some experiments it will be helpful to list the elements of a

sample space systematically by means of a tree diagram.
 Experiment. Used to describe any process that generates a set of
data. Example 3: Suppose that three items are selected from a
 Sample Space. The set of all possible outcomes of a statistical manufacturing process. Each item is inspected and classified
experiment and is represented by the symbol S. GOOD, G, or REJECT, R. What are the possible outcomes?
 Element (Member of Sample Space or Sample Point). Each
outcome in a sample space.
 Trial. A performance or repetition of an experiment.
 Probability. Measure of chance of an event taking place.

Note: If a sample point has a finite number of elements, members

are listed using commas as separator and enclosed in a bracket.

Format: S = { a, b, c }
Example 4: What are the possible outcomes when four coins are
Example 1: Possible outcomes when a coin is tossed. tossed altogether?

Example 2: Experiment of tossing a die.

a. number shows on the top of the space

b. if the number is even or odd Note: If sample spaces with a large or infinite number of sample
points are best described by a statement or a rule.

c. if the number is even Format: S = { x / x is (STATEMENT) } where / is read “such that”

d. if the number is odd

 Example 5: Set of students in DLSL with names beginning with a Example 7: If A = { x / x is a nonprime factor of 7 }
consonant.

Example 8: If S = { x / 10 ≥ x ≤ 20 }, A is a subset of S which is less than 9.

II. EVENTS

A. Event. An event is a subset of a sample space.

C. Venn Diagram. A pictorial illustration of the relationships between
 Single Event. If an event is a set containing only one element events and the corresponding sample space.
of a sample space.
 Compound Event. One that can be expressed as a union of Legend:

simple events.  Rectangle – represents the sample space

Example 6: Drawing a card from a deck of 52 playing cards.  Circle – represents events and drawn inside the rectangle.

a. If S are the suits of the playing cards

b. If Event A is the possibility of getting a heart, then subset A is

Example:
c. If event B is drawing a red card, subset will be S

C
B

B. Null Space. A subset of a sample space that contains no element

and denoted by the symbol Ø or { }.
 Analysis: b. Mutually Exclusive (Independent) Events. Two events A and B are
mutually exclusive if A П B = Ø; that is, A and B have no elements in
1.
common.
2.
S
A B
3.

4.

Example 11: Suppose that a die is tossed. Let,

III. OPERATION WITH EVENTS
A = event that an even number turns up
a. Intersection with Events. The event containing all th elements that
B = event that an odd number occurs
are common to A and B, and denoted by the symbol “ A П B “.
What is A П B?
S
A B

Example 12: A card is drawn from 10 cards numbered 1 to 10. Let the
events be
Example 9: Let A = { 1, 3, 5, 7, 9 } and B = { 2, 4, 6, 8 }, what is A П B?
A = {the card drawn is prime}

B = {the card drawn is composite}

Example 10: Let A = { x / 5 ≤ x ≤ 13 } and B = { x / 9 ≤ x < 17 }, what is A П
C = {the card is even}
B?
D = {the card is divisible by three}

a. Are A and B mutually exclusive events?

 A ‘ = { x / x Є S and x Є A }

b. How about C and D? S

A

c. Union of Events. The union of two events A and B, denoted by the

symbol “A U B”, is the event containing all the elements that belong to
A or to B or to both.
Example 15: Let S = { numbers from 1 to 9 }, A = { 1, 3, 5, 7, 9 } and B =
S { 2, 4, 6, 8 }, what is A’?
A B

Example 13: Let A = { 1, 3, 5, 7, 9 } and B = { 2, 4, 6, 8 }, what is A U B?

Example 16: Let S = { x / 1 ≤ x ≤ 20 } and B = { x / 9 ≤ x < 17 }, what B’?

Example 14: Let A = { x / 5 ≤ x ≤ 13 } and B = { x / 9 ≤ x < 17 }, what is A U

Example 17: S = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 }, A = { 2, 4, 7, 9 }, B = { 1, 3, 7, 9 },
B?
C = { 2, 3, 4, 5 }, and D = { 1, 6, 7 }, list all the elements of the sets
corresponding to the following events:

a. ( C’ П D ) U B
d. Complement of an Event. The complement of an event A with
respect to S is the set of all elements of S that are not in A.
Complement of A is denoted by the symbol A’. b. ( S П B’ )’
 Example 19: How many sample points are there in the sample space
when a pair of dice is thrown once?
*Verify the following definitions by the use of Venn Diagram.

1. A П Ø = Ø
THEOREM 2: Generalized Multiplication Rule. If an operation can be
2. A U A’ = S
performed in n1 ways, and if for each of these a second operation can be
3. (A’)’ = A performed in n2 ways, if for each of first two a third operation can be
performed in n3 ways, and so on, then the sequence of k operations can
4. A U Ø = A
be performed in n1 n2 n3 ……nk ways.
5. S’ = Ø
Example 20: How many lunches are possible consisting a soup, an
6. A П A’ = Ø sandwich, dessert, and a drink if one can select from 5 soups, 4 kinds of
sandwiches, 6 desserts, and 7 drinks?
7. Ø’ = S

8. Verify that A’ U (B’ U C) = (A П B’) U (A’ U C) using information in

Example 17.

IV. COUNTING SAMPLE POINTS Example 21: How many four digit numbers can be formed from the digits
1 to 9 if:
THEOREM 1: Multiplication Rule. If an operation can be performed in n 1
ways, and if for each of these a second operation can be performed in n 2 a. each digit can be used only once?
ways, then the two operations can be performed in n1 n2 ways.

Example 18: Sarah must wear one of six blouses and one of her four
skirts. How many possible outfits does she have?
b. repetitions are allowed?
 Note:

Example 22: How many five digit numbers can be found from the digits 1 It is denoted by P , P(n,r), or P (nr)
n r

to 9 if:

a. it should be an even number

THEOREM 3: Permutations. The number of permutations of n distinct
objects is n!.

b. an odd number?

Example 24: What is the number of permutations of the vowels in the

c. distinct with the first and last number is even English alphabet?

d. the third digit is odd THEOREM 4: Linear Permutations. The number of permutations of n
distinct objects taken r at a time is
n!
nPr =
( n – r )!

PERMUTATION. An arrangement of all or part of a set of objects. Note: The number of permutations of n things taken all at a time is

Example 23: Consider the letters a, b, and c. Possible permutations are: nPn = n!.

Example 25: In how many ways can 4 boys be seated in a row of 7 stools?

without listing:

by formula: Example 26: How many permutations can be made from the letters in
the word FLOWER if
by symbol:
a. three letters are used at a time? THEOREM 6: Indistinguishable Permutations. The number of distinct
permutations of n things of which n 1 are one of a kind, n2 of a second
kind, ………, nk of a kth kind is
b. all letters are used? n!
P =
n1! n2! ……nk!

Example 29: How many permutations can be made with all the letters in
c. all letters are used but the first is a vowel?
the word PROBABILITY?

THEOREM 5: Circular Permutations. The number of permutations of n

distinct objects arranged in a circle is
P =(n–1)! Example 30: How many signals can be made by arranging 8 flags in a line
if 3 are red, 2 are blue, and 3 are white?

This is so by fixing one fixing one object in just one position.

Example 27: In how many ways can 5 different trees be planted in a

circle?
Example 31: How many permutations can be made with all the letters in
the word PNEUMONOULTRAMICROSCOPICSILICOLVOLCANOCONIOSIS?

Example 28: In how many ways can 4 boys and 4 girls be seated at a
round table with the boys and girls alternating?

Example 32: How many different ways can 5 red, 5 yellow, and 5 green
bulbs be arranged in a string of Christmas tree lights with 13 sockets?
 Example 35: From a group of 4 men and 3 women, how many
THEOREM 7: The number of ways of partitioning a set of n objects into r
committees of size 3 are possible?
cells with n1 elements in the first cell, n 2 elements in the second cell, and
a. with no restrictions
so on, is
n!

n
=
n1, n2, ……,nr n1! n2! ……,nr!
b. with 1 man and 2 women

where n1 + n2 + …… + nr = n

Example 33: How many ways can 7 people be assigned to 1 triple and 2
double rooms?
c. with 2 men and 1 woman if a certain man must be on the committee

Example 34: A college plays 12 football games during a season. In how

Example 36: In how many ways can a committee of 5 girls be selected
many ways can the team end the season with 7 wins, 3 losses, and 2
from eight girls if two of them refuse to be together?
ties?

Example 37: In how many ways can a set of 4 English books and two
THEOREM 8: The number of ways of n distinct objects taken r at a time
Filipino books be chosen from a set of 6 different English books and 7
is different Filipino books?
n!
n
= nCr =
r r! ( n – r )!
Note: The number of permutations of n distinct objects taken r at a time Example 38: If a die is tossed once. What is the probability that an even
is related to the number of combinations by the formula number occurs?

n
nPr = r! or
r

nPr = ( nCr ) r!
THEOREM 9: If an experiment can result in any one of N different equally
likely outcomes, and if exactly n of these outcomes corresponds to event
A, then the probability of event A is,
n
P(A)=
N

V. PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT Example 39: If a card is drawn from an ordinary deck of card, find the
probability that it is a diamond.
Probability of an Event. The probability of an event A is the sum of the
probabilities of all the sample points in A. Therefore,

0 ≤ P (A) ≤ 1, P (Ø) = 0 , P (S) = 1

Example 38: A coin is tossed once. What is the probability that a head
occurs?

Example 40: In a poker hand consisting 0f 7 cards, find the probability of

holding 2 Kings, 3 Aces and 2 Jacks?
 P ( A U B ) = P (A) + P (B)

 Corollary 2: If A1, A2, A3,…., An,B are mutually exclusive events, then

P (A1 U A2 U A3 U …. U An) = P (A1) + P (A2) + P (A3) + …..+ P (An)

Note: P (A1) + P (A2) + P (A3) + …..+ P (An) = P (S) = 1

Example 42: What is the probability of getting a total of 7 or 11 when a

pair of dice is tossed?
Example 41: A box contains one yellow marble, one red marble and one
blue marble of the same sizes. What is the probability of drawing a
yellow and a red marble together?

Example 43: In a college graduating class of 100 students, 54 studied

VI. ADDITIVE RULES mathematics, 69 studied history and 35 studied both mathematics and
history. If one of these students is selected at random, find the
THEOREM 10: Additive Rule. If A and B are any two events, then
probability that
P ( A U B ) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A П B)
a. the student takes mathematics or history
S b. the student does not take either of these subjects
A
AПB c. the students takes history but not mathematics
B

 Corollary 1: If A and B are mutually exclusive events, then

 VII. CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT

Conditional Probability. The conditional probability of B, given A, denoted

by P ( B / A ), is defined by the equation

P ( AП B )
P(B/A) = if P(A) > 0
P(A)

THEOREM 11: Complements. If A and A’ are complementary events, then Example 45: A random sample of 200 adults are classified below by sex
and their level of education attained.
P ( A ) + ) P ( A’ ) = 1

Education Male Female

S Elementary 38 45
Secondary A 28 50
College 22 17

If a person picked at random from this group, find the probability that

Example 44: Among the 20 kindergarten students 12 likes apple. How a. the person is a male, given that the person has a secondary
many dislikes the fruit? education;
 b. the person does not have a college degree, given that the person Example 46: If two cards are drawn in succession from an ordinary deck
is a female. of deck of cards, with replacement. The events are defined as

A: the first card is Queen

Solution:
B: the second card is a Heart
Education Male Female Row Total
Elementary 38 45 a. What is P (B/A)? Are A and B independent?
Secondary 28 50
College 22 17
Column
Total

Example 47: If the two cards are drawn in succession from an ordinary
deck of deck of cards, without replacement. The events are defined as

A: the first card is Queen

B: the second card is a Heart

What is P (B/A)? What conclusion you can derive from the answer?

Independent Events. Two events A and B are independent if either

P ( B/A ) = P (B) or P (A/B) = P (A)

VIII. MULTIPLICATIVE RULE
otherwise, A and B are dependent.
THEOREM 12: Multiplicative Rule. If in an experiment, the events A and B
can both occur then

P ( A U B ) = P (A) P ( B/A ) = P (B П A) = P (B) P (A/B)

Example 48: Suppose that a box contains 20 bulbs and 7 of which are
defective. If 2 bulbs selected at random and removed from the box in
succession without replacement, what is the probability that b. What is the probability that the doctor makes an incorrect
diagnosis and the patient doesn’t sue?
a. both bulbs are defective

THEOREM 14: Generalized Multiplicative Rule. If in an experiment, the

b. both bulbs are non defective
events A1, A2, A3,…., Ak, can occur, then

P (A1UA2UA3U….UAk) = P(A1) P(A2/A1) P(A3 / A1 П A2)………

P (Ak / A1 П A2 П…….П Ak

Note: A1 П A2 П A3 П…….П Ak = P (A1) P( A2) P(A3) ….P (Ak )

Example 50: Three cards are drawn in succession, without replacement

THEOREM 13: Special Multiplicative Rule. If two events A and B are from an ordinary deck of playing cards. Find the probability that the first
independent, then card is a black ace, the second card is a face card, and the third card is
greater than 6 but less than 10.
P ( A П B ) = P (A) P (B)
Let:
Example 49: The probability that a doctor correctly diagnoses a particular
illness is 0.7. Given that the doctor makes an incorrect diagnosis, the
probability that the patient enters a law suit is 0.9.

a. What is the probability that the doctor makes an incorrect

diagnosis and the patient sues?
 Thirty six (36) employed and 12 unemployed are members of Rotaract
Club. If one of these individuals is to be selected at random for a tour
throughout the country to publicize the advantages of establishing new
industries in the town, what is the probability of event A that the
individual selected is a member of the Rotaract Club?

IX. BAYES’ RULE

E E’
A

P (A) = P [ (E П ) + (E’ П A)

= P (E П ) + P (E’ П A) THEOREM 15: Theorem of Total Probability or Rule of Elimination.

If the events B1, B2, B3,…., Bk, constitute a partition of the sample
= P (E) P (A/E) + P (E’) P (A/E’)
space S such that P (Bi) = 0 for i = 1, 2, 3,….,k, then for any event A of S

Example 50: Given the following information EMPLOYED UNEMPLOYED

Row Total
MALE 38 45
FEMALE 28 50
Column
Total
 P (A) = P (B1) P (A/B1) + P (B2) P (A/B2) + ……. + P (Bk) P (A/Bk)

B2
B3
B1
B4

BK Bn

A = P (B1 П A) U P (B2 П A) U P (B3 П A) U …….U P (Bk П A)

P (A) = P [ (B1 П A) + P (B2 П A) + P (B3 П A) + …….+ P (Bk П A) ]

P (A) = P (B1) P (A/B1) + P (B2) P (A/B2) + ……. + P (Bk) P (A/Bk)

THEOREM 16: Bayes’ Rule. If the events B1, B2, B3,…., Bk, constitute a
partition of the sample space S such that P (B i) = 0 for i = 1, 2, 3,….,k,
Example 51: Three members of a private country club have been then for any event A of S such that P (A) = 0
nominated for the office of President. The probability that Mr. Adams
will be elected is 0.30, the probability that Mr. Brown will be elected is
P (Br) P (A/Br)
0.50, and the probability that Ms. Cooper will be elected is 0.20. Should P (Br / A) =
Mr. Adams be elected, the probability for an increase in membership
P (B1) P (A/B1) + P (B2) P (A/B2) + ……. + P (Bk) P (A/Bk)
fees is 0.80, should Mr. Brown or Ms. Cooper be elected, the
corresponding probabilities for an increase in fees are 0.10 and .40. What
for r = 1, 2, 3, …….., k.
is the probability that there will be an increase in membership fees?

Let: A : membership fees are increased

Example 52: Using given information in Example 51, if is known that
B1: Mr. Adams is elected
membership fees have increased, what is the probability that Ms. Cooper
B2: Mr. Brown is elected was elected as President of the club?

B3: Ms. Cooper is elected

 e. what is the probability that he does not receive a ticket but he
commits a speeding violation as he passed through L3?
Example 53: Police plan to enforce speed limits by using radar traps at
four different locations within the city limits. The radar traps at each of
the locations L1, L2, L3, and L4 are operated 40%, 30%, 20%, and 30% of
the time, and if a person who is speeding on his way to work has
probabilities of 0.2, 0.1, 0.5, and 0.2, respectively, of passing through
these locations,

a. what is the probability that he will receive a speeding ticket?

TO GOD BE THE GLORY! *mgmacatangayferry’19

b. what is the probability that he passed through the radar trap
located at L2?

c. at L1?

d. at L1 or L4?