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Calculating Prevalences and Incidences: No. of Cases Population Size

Prevalence is calculated by dividing the number of cases by the population size at a particular point in time or over a period of time. Incidence proportion is calculated by dividing the number of new disease onsets by the number initially at risk in a closed cohort and considers only new cases. Incidence rate is calculated by dividing the number of new disease onsets by the sum of person-time at risk, which can be measured in a closed cohort or open population and considers new cases but uses a different denominator by counting person-time.

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88 views1 page

Calculating Prevalences and Incidences: No. of Cases Population Size

Prevalence is calculated by dividing the number of cases by the population size at a particular point in time or over a period of time. Incidence proportion is calculated by dividing the number of new disease onsets by the number initially at risk in a closed cohort and considers only new cases. Incidence rate is calculated by dividing the number of new disease onsets by the sum of person-time at risk, which can be measured in a closed cohort or open population and considers new cases but uses a different denominator by counting person-time.

Uploaded by

Nura Omar Abdurasid
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Calculating Prevalences and Incidences

no. of cases
1. Prevalence =
population size
a. Prevalence can be measured in an closed cohort or in an open population.
b. Prevalence in cross-sectional.
c. “Old” cases and “new” cases are counted in the numerator.
d. Can be measured at a particular point (point prevalence) or over a period (period prevalence). Normally,
when we say prevalence we mean “point prevalence.”
no. of disease onsets
2. Incidence proportion = Cumulative Incidence = Risk =
no. initially at risk
a. Incidence proportion can only be measured in a closed cohort.
b. Only new onsets are considered.
c. The time of follow-up must be specified (e.g., 5-year risk of breast cancer vs. lifetime risk of breast cancer).

no. of disease onsets


3. Incidence rate = Incidence density =
Sum of person - time @ risk

a. Incidence rates (density) can be measured in a closed cohort or in an open population.


b. Its numerator is the same as incidence proportion, but its denominator is different.
c. Methods of calculating the “person-time” denominator.
i. In a closed cohort
(1) Count person-time for each individual in the cohort and sum (e.g., see text Fig 6.2, p. 100 for an
example).
(2) Break cohort into those who remain healthy (Group 1) and those who develop disease (Group 2).
Let ∆t period of follow-up.
(a) Persons who remain healthy, person-time, T1 = (N1)(∆t).
(b) Person who develop disease, person-time, T2 = (N2)× (½∆t).
(c) Sum of person-time = T1 + T2
(d) See Exercise 2 on p. 103 for illustration.
(3) (Average population size) × (duration of follow-up)
ii. In an open population (e.g., using vital statistics systems): The person-time is approximately equal to
( N )(∆t), where N is average population size and ∆t is the duration of study. For example, a
population with an average size of 1000 studied for 1 year accounts for 1000 person-years. In contrast,
a population with an average size of 1000 studied for 2 years accounts for (1000)(2) = 2000 person-
years.

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