Hochschule Rhein-Waal

Rhine-Waal University of Applied Sciences

Faculty of Communication and Environment

Degree Program Information Engineering and Computer Science, M.Sc.

EARTHQUAKE IN NEPAL

Term Paper
Sumer Semester 2018
M-IE_EA.03 Data Procurement and Data Processing in Technical and Ecological
Ecosystem Management

Submitted to
Prof. Dr. Ute Hansen

by
Dikshant Ghimire (Matriculation Number: 24905)

[email protected]
2018-July-01
Table of Contents

Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 5

Purpose of the Report ............................................................................................................ 6

Measuring Earthquake ........................................................................................................... 7

Earthquake Data Analysis ................................................................................................... 11

My point of view about the Topic ....................................................................................... 17

Summary.............................................................................................................................. 18

Reference ............................................................................................................................. 19

2
List of Tables

Table 1. Types of Earthquake Measuring Scales (Bgs.ac.uk, 2018) ..................................... 9

3
List of Figures

Figure 1. Nepal Earthquake 2015 seismic data recorded at Seismology Center,

Kathmandu(Seismonepal.gov.np/ /strong-motion) 2018 ...................................................... 7

Figure 2. Triangulation method example (Geo.mtu.edu/ UPSeis/locating.html) 2018 ......... 7

Figure 3. Seismic Monitoring Station,Dhakuta,Nepal.(The Himalayan Times, 2018) ......... 8

Figure 4. Number of Earthquakes in Nepal per Year with Magnitude greater than 5 ML
(http://seismonepal.gov.np/earthquakes, 2018) ................................................................... 12

Figure 5. Number of Earthquakes in Nepal 2015 per month with magnitudes greater than 5
ML(http://seismonepal.gov.np/earthquakes, 2018) ............................................................. 13

Figure 6. Maximum Magnitude of Earthquake(ML) per day in April,2015 Nepal

(http://seismonepal.gov.np/earthquakes, 2018) ................................................................... 14

Figure 7. Temperature and Earthquake Magnitude in Kathmandu 2015, April

25(Seismonepal.gov.np, 2018); (Weather Underground, 2018) ......................................... 16

Figure 8. Vertical Ground Displacement of Kathmandu region after Earthquake 2015

taken from the Sentinel-1A satellite (Earthobservatory.nasa.gov, 2018) ............................ 17

4
Introduction

Nepal lies on one of the most seismically active regions. The fault line crosses Nepal from Mechi
to Mahakali zone. The Eurasian and Indian tectonic plates are two major plates responsible for
earthquakes in Nepal. The Indian plate is submerging inside the Eurasian plate which is causing
the uplift of ground in Nepal. Even the high mountains and Hills are formed in Nepal due to
submerging of this plate.
The Earth's crust is made of large tectonic plates. These plates include countries and sometimes
the whole continent which are constantly moving and sliding into each other at a very small rate.
The line where they slide is called the fault line. The point deep down in the earth’s surface
where the earthquake starts is called the hypocentre (focus) and the location directly above it on
the surface of the earth is called the epicentre.
Nepal has a long history associated with the earthquake. The first recorded data of earthquake in
Nepal is 7.8 Moment Magnitude (Mw) in 1255 AD. Ever since then, Nepal has a long list of
major earthquake data including the recent major earthquake in 2015. Almost every day there is
an earthquake of magnitude greater than 4 Local Magnitude (ML) in Nepal. Though it is known
that Indian and Eurasian plates are responsible for earthquakes in Nepal but every time an
earthquake occur the epicentre changes. As the fault line crosses Nepal close to the Indian border
that’s why in the past most of the epicentres were detected near the Indian border. The National
Seismology Survey in Kathmandu, Nepal records the data for earthquakes in Nepal.

5
Purpose of the Report

The main aim of this report is to study Nepal’s earthquake data and analyse those data in
different ways possible. In this report, I have tried to analyse the data for earthquake prediction
and earthquake dependency on the weather. Along with that, the main aim of this report also
covers the procurement and processing of these data. This report also covers topics regarding
measuring the earth quake strength and different types of measuring scales. Overall, this report
provides an overview of the earthquake in the technical approach in the presence of earthquake
data.

6
Measuring Earthquake

Earthquakes are measured with a help of device

called seismographs. Seismographs generally
consist of two functional units - a Seismometer
and a Seismogram. Seismometers detect the
shake using the principle of inertia, while
Seismogram creates the graphs by recording the
vibration of the Earth. Generally, a seismogram
has two axis- horizontal for time (in seconds)
and vertical axis can contain different values
depending upon the technology used or type of
data needed. However, in most of the cases the Figure 1. Nepal Earthquake 2015 seismic data recorded at
Seismology Center, Kathmandu(Seismonepal.gov.np/ /strong-
vertical axis has ground displacement. In case of motion)

no earthquakes there will be straight line or some wiggles due to noise in the system. Graph
based Seismograms are no more used in today’s modern days, in fact digital devices have taken
over them.

Scientists use one of the popular methods

called triangulation to determine exactly
where the earthquake occurred. According to
United States Geological Survey , “it is called
triangulation because a triangle has three
sides, and it takes three seismographs to
locate an earthquake. If you draw a circle on
a map around three different seismographs
where the radius of each is the distance from
that station to the earthquake, the intersection of
Figure 2. Triangulation method example
those three circles is the epicentre.” (Geo.mtu.edu/ UPSeis/locating.html)

7
1
(Earthquake.usgs.gov). As the earthquake depends on how deep it occurred, the more shallow
the hypocentre, the greater is the tremor. Generally, three types of waves are produced during
earthquakes. The first one is P-wave, which is the first wave detected by the device all over the
earth ( travels through Earth’s core) and the second
one is the S-wave which cannot travel through
liquid but also travels through Earth’s core. And the
last one is the surface wave which travels through
earth surface.
Earthquake size was measured using Richter scale
in initial days and was the only scientific measure
of the strength of an earthquake. Charles Richter
developed this scale using a logarithmic formula in
1930’s for measuring earthquakes in Southern
California. This scale was later modified as Local
Magnitude (ML) or Richter Magnitude. As Table 1
Figure 3. Seismic Monitoring
describes, it was basically used to measure the local Station,Dhakuta,Nepal.(The Himalayan Times,2017)
earthquakes using different seismograph stations.
According to the United States Geological Survey, “as more seismograph stations were installed
around the world, it became apparent that the method developed by Richter was strictly valid
only for certain frequency and distance ranges. In order to take advantage of the growing number
of globally distributed seismograph stations, new magnitude scales that are an extension of
Richter's original idea were developed. These include body wave magnitude (Mb) and surface
wave magnitude (Ms). Each is valid for a particular frequency range and type of seismic signal.
In its range of validity each is equivalent to the Richter magnitude. Because of the limitations of
all three magnitude scales, ML, Mb, and Ms, a new, more uniformly applicable extension of the
magnitude scale, known as moment magnitude, or Mw was developed.”2 (Usgs.gov)

1
Earthquake.usgs.gov. The Science of Earthquakes. https://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/kids/eqscience.php

2
Usgs.gov. Moment magnitude, Richter scale - what are the different magnitude scales, and why are there so
many?. https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/moment-magnitude-richter-scale-what-are-different-magnitude-scales-and-why-
are-there-so-many?qt-news_science_products=0#qt-news_science_products.

8
 Table 1. Types of Earthquake Measuring Scales (Bgs.ac.uk)

According to British Geological Survey, the following table represents different types of scales: 3
Richter magnitude (Local Magnitude ML)
Originally earthquake magnitudes were based on the amplitude of ground motion displacement
as measured by a standard seismograph. The best known of these is the Richter Magnitude
which was defined for local earthquakes in southern California.
ML = logA + 2.56logD - 1.67
Where A is the measured ground motion (in micrometres) and D is the distance from the event
(in km). This is still used for measuring the magnitude of shallow events at distances less than
600 km (today called the Local Magnitude). For events larger than magnitude 8 this scale
saturates and gives magnitude estimates that are too small.

Body wave magnitude Mb

For earthquakes measured at distances greater than 600 km magnitude can be estimated from
the formula.
Mb = log(A/T) + σ(D,h)
Where A is the maximum amplitude (in micrometres)of the P-waves measured at period T
(generally about one second) and σ is a calibration term (in the range 6–8) that depends on
distance from the event D and depth of the event h (tables of σ are used).

Surface wave magnitude Ms

For shallow earthquakes (i.e. ones that generate surface waves) magnitudes can be estimated
using the formula.
MS = log(A/T) + 1.66logΔ + 3.3

3
Bgs.ac.uk. Earthquake magnitude calculations | Measuring the size of an earthquake | Earthquakes | Discovering
Geology | British Geological Survey (BGS).
http://www.bgs.ac.uk/discoveringGeology/hazards/earthquakes/magnitudeScaleCalculations.html

9
Where A is the maximum amplitude (in micrometres) of the Rayleigh waves, T is the period
(usually about 20 seconds) and Δ is the distance (in degrees).

Moment magnitude Mw
Earthquakes occur when the ground ruptures. Stresses build up over time (usually caused by the
slow movements of tectonic plates) and eventually a piece of the Earth's brittle crust deep under
ground breaks (the technical term is ruptures). This rupture then grows until eventually a large
area has shifted (the rupture propagates at a velocity of 2–3km/sec). The magnitude of the
earthquake is related to the size of the rupture.

Seismic moment (Mo) = μ* rupture area * slip length

where μ is the shear modulus of the crust (approx 3x1010 N/m)
Mw = 2/3log(Mo) - 6.06
Nowadays the moment magnitude scale is the one used by seismologists to measure large
earthquakes. The historic Richter magnitude is calculated by measuring the deflection on a
seismometer corrected for distance from the event. Richter magnitudes underestimate the size
of large events and are no longer used. However, the constants used in the definition of Moment
magnitude (Mw) were chosen so that the magnitude numbers for Richter and Moment
magnitudes match for smaller events.

Earthquake is measured using different formulas based on different approach and requirements.
But an earthquake magnitude does not always determine the effect of earthquake. The two
different aspects of earthquake measurement are Magnitude and Intensity. The above table
shows how magnitude is used to find the strength of earthquake not considering the area where it
has occurred. On the other hand, Intensity is the main approach used when it comes to the
determining the damage caused by the particular shock at that particular place. Modified
Mercalli scale, is one of the most used approach for finding intensity of an earthquake.

10
Earthquake Data Analysis

There are many assumptions about earthquake prediction. There are some speculation that
earthquake can be predicted but yet to be proven. Even some experts in the earthquake field have
some speculation regarding the relation between earthquake and weather. However, all these are
yet to be proven.
In this report we will have a look at some data and graphs to analyse earthquakes in more detail.
I have analysed seismic data as well as the occurrence of those data through graphs. In addition
to that, I have included temperature data to compare with earthquake data. I have extracted all
earthquakes data from official website of Seismology Nepal (http://www.seismonepal.gov.np/).

Can an earthquake be predicted?

This is one of the most searched questions over internet. There are some questions which science
has no answer to it and one of them is whether an accurate prediction of earthquakes is possible.
However, some technology and strategies do exist in today’s modern day to predict if an earth
quake can happen within a range of places. These predictions are based on past seismic data and
analysing tectonic plate’s movement. These predictions are sometimes true to a certain range but
most of the times are false. In this report I have included some graphs to see if earthquake can be
predicted or not. For this report I have taken earthquakes data of Nepal and more detailed
analysis is done on the recent major earthquake of Nepal in 2015. Here all the units are in Local
Magnitude (ML), which was available through the Nepal seismology official website.
(http://www.seismonepal.gov.np/).

11
 Figure 4. Number of Earthquakes in Nepal per Year with Magnitude greater than 5 ML
(http://seismonepal.gov.np/earthquakes)

The graph shown in Figure 4 shows the clear history of earthquakes in Nepal. These graph bars
clearly show that earthquakes cannot be predicted. There is no pattern at all in this graph to
predict the huge number of the earthquakes in 2015. An earthquake is always a sudden incident
without any hints. But the graph in Figure 4 shows atendency towards an interval of four-five
years before a major earthqauke which is referring to the fact that there are comparitively bigger
earthquakes after 4-5 years of interval but how big in scale is completely unpredictable.

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 Figure 5. Number of Earthquakes in Nepal 2015 per month with magnitudes greater than 5
ML(http://seismonepal.gov.np/earthquakes)

The graph shown in Figure 5 gives the number of earthquakes for each month in year 2015. The
most devastating earthquakes happened in April. We can clearly see from the graph that there
were no hints of earthquakes even few months before the major earthquake occurred. Figure 5
further indicates that we will have aftershocks for few months after major earthquake which is
clearly shown in the graph but no such foreshocks before April which again points on the
uncertainty of the earthquake prediction.

13
 Figure 6. Maximum Magnitude of Earthquake(ML) per day in April,2015 Nepal
(http://seismonepal.gov.np/earthquakes)

The graph shown in Figure 6 gives insight into earthquakes data collected on the day of the
earthquake. This graph gives more detail and shows that even a day before the major earthquake
occurred no unusual quakes were detected. In fact there was no earthquake of magnitude greater
than 4 ML recorded a day before. As we can clearly see from the day-wise break down of data,
no earthquakes were detected starting from first day of April and only few shocks of magnitude
around 5 ML occurred few days before the major quake. These earlier quakes were small enough

14
to be neglected in a region such as Nepal where people are comfortable with 4 and 5 ML
earthquakes. This is a clear indication that a major earthquake cannot be predicted from either
small number of earthquakes or no earthquakes at all before major earthquakes.

Is earthquake and weather related?

According to United States Geological Survey, “In the 4th Century B.C., Aristotle proposed that
earthquakes were caused by winds trapped in subterranean caves. Small tremors were thought to
have been caused by air pushing on the cavern roofs, and large ones by the air breaking the
surface. This theory lead to a belief in earthquake weather, that because a large amount of air
was trapped underground, the weather would be hot and calm before an earthquake. A later
theory stated that earthquakes occurred in calm, cloudy conditions, and were usually preceded by
strong winds, fireballs, and meteors.”4(Usgs.gov)

According to Johnston, “there is no such thing as "earthquake weather". Statistically, there is

approximately an equal distribution of earthquakes in cold weather, hot weather, rainy weather,
etc. Very large low-pressure changes associated with major storm systems (typhoons, hurricanes,
etc.) are known to trigger episodes of fault slip (slow earthquakes) in the Earth’s crust and may
also play a role in triggering some damaging earthquakes. However, the numbers are small and
are not statistically significant”5.

4
Usgs.gov. Is there earthquake weather?. https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/there-earthquake-weather?qt-
news_science_products=0#qt-news_science_products
5
Johnston, M. Is there earthquake weather?. Usgs.gov. https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/there-earthquake-weather?qt-
news_science_products=0#qt-news_science_products.

15
 25 8

7
20

Maximum Earthquake Magnitude(ML)

Average Temperature (Celcius )

5
15

10
3

2
5
1

0 0 Maximum Magnitude(ML)
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 of Earthquake in a Day

Days of April 2015 Average

Temperature(celcius)

Figure 7. Temperature and Earthquake Magnitude in Kathmandu 2015, April 25(Seismonepal.gov.np)6; (Weather
Underground)7

This is one of the unsolved mysteries for people and scientists all over the world. The Figure 7
shown above is generated to analyse whether there exists any relation between weather and the
earthquakes in April 2015. The average temperature of Kathmandu and earthquake magnitude is
plotted and we can clearly see that there was a slight decrease in temperature on the day of the
major earthquake (25th April). But this does not seem to be true for other shocks which occurred
after that major quake. We don’t have sufficient evidence to prove that the temperature drops on

6
Seismonepal.gov.np http://www.seismonepal.gov.np/.
7
Weather Underground.. Tribhuvan International, Nepal History | Weather Underground
.https://www.wunderground.com/history/monthly/VNKT/date/2015-4

16
the day of earthquake. It can be coincidence or something else but as a part of report it was seen
that on the day of major earth quake the average temperature dropped but same did not happen
for big aftershock on 26th April, instead the temperature increased. So still we don’t have enough
evidence to show that the occurrence of an earthquake is triggered with certain weather
condition.

My point of view about the Topic

There was no such strong reason to choose this topic for my report and presentation except for
the fact that I witnessed the 2015 Nepal earthquake closely and was one of the survivors of that
earthquake. Earthquake has always been associated with data and analysis. Imagine if someone
says “An earthquake happened!” The first question comes to our mind is “How much
magnitude?” This obviously proves that when it is about data procurement and processing then
earthquake data are one of the most interesting and practical data to analyse. As I worked on this
topic I researched a lot about earthquake and its details in quite deep to learn and present facts
and information which is interesting enough to look at.

Figure 8. Vertical Ground Displacement of Kathmandu region after Earthquake 2015 taken from the Sentinel- 17
1A satellite (Earthobservatory.nasa.gov, 2015)
The Figure 8 is an image taken after the Nepal earthquake 2015 of Kathmandu. It clearly shows
that the whole Kathmandu region was uplifted due to the submerging of the Indian plate inside
Eurasian plate. This image clearly shows the land was uplifted by about 3 meters which caused
sinking and uplift of roads and buildings in Kathmandu. This image was taken from one of the
satellites of NASA to analyse the conditions of ground after the earthquake.

Summary

Before 2015, Nepalese were not so conscious about earthquakes because the last major
earthquake in Nepal happened was back in 1934 and had around 8.0 Mw. In between that period
there were few earthquakes around 6 Mw felt in Nepal. The Nepal earthquake 2015 was the
crucial one for Nepal not only because of its magnitude which was 7.8 Mw but also because of
the epicentre being near to the capital city, Kathmandu. Ever since then around 500 aftershocks
(greater than 4 Mw) have been felt all over Nepal. All these aftershocks are the proof that the
plates were still sliding past each other or were not in stable state and continuously energy was
released. Nepal Seismology Department still uses ML for measuring earthquake which I think
needs to be upgraded to Mw. Due to the fault line, Nepal is always at the risk of earthquakes so
we cannot stop that but adopting new and advance technical strategies and equipment we can
surely minimize the effect of earthquakes.

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Reference

Bgs.ac.uk.. Earthquake magnitude calculations | Measuring the size of an earthquake |

Earthquakes | Discovering Geology | British Geological Survey (BGS). [online] Available at:
http://www.bgs.ac.uk/discoveringGeology/hazards/earthquakes/magnitudeScaleCalculations.htm
l [Accessed 29 Jun. 2018].

Earthobservatory.nasa.gov. (2015). Sensing How Much the Earth Moved in Nepal : Image of the
Day. [online] Available at: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=85871
[Accessed 29 Jun. 2018].

Earthquake.usgs.gov. The Science of Earthquakes. [online] Available at:

https://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/kids/eqscience.php [Accessed 30 Jun. 2018].

Geo.mtu.edu. How Do I Locate That Earthquake's Epicenter?. [online] Available at:

http://www.geo.mtu.edu/UPSeis/locating.html [Accessed 29 Jun. 2018].

Johnston, D. Is there earthquake weather?. [online] Usgs.gov. Available at:

https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/there-earthquake-weather?qt-news_science_products=0#qt-
news_science_products [Accessed 30 Jun. 2018].

Seismonepal.gov.np. National Seismological Center. [online] Available at:

http://seismonepal.gov.np/strong-motion [Accessed 29 Jun. 2018].

Seismonepal.gov.np. National Seismological Center. [online] Available at:

http://seismonepal.gov.np/earthquakes/2015 [Accessed 29 Jun. 2018].

19
The Himalayan Times. (2017). Nepal to set up 18 more seismic stations. [online] Available at:
https://thehimalayantimes.com/nepal/nepal-to-set-up-18-more-seismic-stations [Accessed 29
Jun. 2018].

Usgs.gov. Moment magnitude, Richter scale - what are the different magnitude scales, and why
are there so many?. [online] Available at: https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/moment-magnitude-
richter-scale-what-are-different-magnitude-scales-and-why-are-there-so-many?qt-
news_science_products=0#qt-news_science_products [Accessed 30 Jun. 2018].

Weather Underground. Tribhuvan International, Nepal History | Weather Underground. [online]

Available at: https://www.wunderground.com/history/monthly/VNKT/date/2015-4 [Accessed 29
Jun. 2018].

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