Chapter Six

Probability

Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc. 6.1

 Random Experiment…
…a random experiment is an action or process that leads to
one of several possible outcomes. For example:

Experiment Outcomes

Flip a coin Heads, Tails

Exam Marks Numbers: 0, 1, 2, ..., 100

Assembly Time t > 0 seconds

Course Grades F, D, C, B, A, A+

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 Probabilities…
List the outcomes of a random experiment…

This list must be exhaustive, i.e. ALL possible outcomes

included.
Die roll {1,2,3,4,5} Die roll {1,2,3,4,5,6}

The list must be mutually exclusive, i.e. no two outcomes

can occur at the same time:
Die roll {odd number or even number}
Die roll{ number less than 4 or even number}

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 Sample Space…
A list of exhaustive and mutually exclusive outcomes is
called a sample space and is denoted by S.

The outcomes are denoted by O1, O2, …, Ok

Using notation from set theory, we can represent the sample

space and its outcomes as:

S = {O1, O2, …, Ok}

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 Requirements of Probabilities…
Given a sample space S = {O1, O2, …, Ok}, the probabilities
assigned to the outcome must satisfy these requirements:

(1) The probability of any outcome is between 0 and 1

i.e. 0 ≤ P(Oi) ≤ 1 for each i, and

(2) The sum of the probabilities of all the outcomes equals 1

i.e. P(O1) + P(O2) + … + P(Ok) = 1

P(Oi) represents the probability of outcome i

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 Approaches to Assigning Probabilities…
There are three ways to assign a probability, P(Oi), to an
outcome, Oi, namely:

Classical approach: make certain assumptions (such as

equally likely, independence) about situation.

Relative frequency: assigning probabilities based on

experimentation or historical data.

Subjective approach: Assigning probabilities based on the

assignor’s judgment.

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 Classical Approach…
If an experiment has n possible outcomes, this method
would assign a probability of 1/n to each outcome.

Experiment: Rolling a die

Sample Space: S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Probabilities: Each sample point has a 1/6 chance of
occurring.

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 Classical Approach…
Experiment: Rolling dice
Sample Space: S = {2, 3, …, 12}
Probability Examples: What are the underlying,
unstated assumptions??
P(2) = 1/36 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
P(7) = 6/36 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
P(10) = 3/36 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
6 7 8 9 10 11 12

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 Relative Frequency Approach…
Bits & Bytes Computer Shop tracks the number of desktop
computer systems it sells over a month (30 days):
Desktops Sold # of Days
For example,
0 1
10 days out of 30
1 2
2 desktops were sold.
2 10
From this we can construct 3 12
the probabilities of an event 4 5
(i.e. the # of desktop sold on a given day)…

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 Relative Frequency Approach…
Desktops Sold # of Days Desktops Sold

0 1 1/30 = .03
1 2 2/30 = .07
2 10 10/30 = .33
3 12 12/30 = .40
4 5 5/30 = .17
∑ = 1.00

“There is a 40% chance Bits & Bytes will sell 3 desktops on

any given day”

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 Subjective Approach…
“In the subjective approach we define probability as the
degree of belief that we hold in the occurrence of an event”

E.g. weather forecasting’s “P.O.P.”

“Probability of Precipitation” (or P.O.P.) is defined in
different ways by different forecasters, but basically it’s a
subjective probability based on past observations combined
with current weather conditions.

POP 60% – based on current conditions, there is a 60%

chance of rain (say).

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 Events & Probabilities…
An individual outcome of a sample space is called a simple
event, while

An event is a collection or set of one or more simple events

in a sample space.

Roll of a die: S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Simple event: the number “3” will be rolled
Event: an even number (one of 2, 4, or 6) will be rolled

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 Events & Probabilities…
The probability of an event is the sum of the probabilities of
the simple events that constitute the event.

E.g. (assuming a fair die) S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} and

P(1) = P(2) = P(3) = P(4) = P(5) = P(6) = 1/6

Then:
P(EVEN) = P(2) + P(4) + P(6) = 1/6 + 1/6 + 1/6 = 3/6 = 1/2

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 Interpreting Probability…
One way to interpret probability is this:

If a random experiment is repeated an infinite number of

times, the relative frequency for any given outcome is the
probability of this outcome.

For example, the probability of heads in flip of a balanced

coin is .5, determined using the classical approach. The
probability is interpreted as being the long-term relative
frequency of heads if the coin is flipped an infinite number
of times.

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 Joint, Marginal, Conditional Probability…
We study methods to determine probabilities of events that
result from combining other events in various ways.

There are several types of combinations and relationships

between events:
•Complement of an event
•Intersection of two events
•Union of two events

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 Example 6.1…
Why are some mutual fund managers more successful than
others? One possible factor is where the manager earned his
or her MBA. The following table compares mutual fund
performance against the ranking of the school where the
fund manager earned their MBA:
Mutual fund outperforms Mutual fund doesn’t
the market outperform the market
Top 20 MBA program .11 .29
Not top 20 MBA program .06 .54

E.g. This is the probability that a mutual fund

outperforms AND the manager was in a
Venn Diagrams
top-20 MBA program; it’s a joint
probability.

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 Example 6.1…
Alternatively, we could introduce shorthand notation to
represent the events:
A1 = Fund manager graduated from a top-20 MBA program
A2 = Fund manager did not graduate from a top-20 MBA program
B1 = Fund outperforms the market
B2 = Fund does not outperform the market

B1 B2
A1 .11 .29
A2 .06 .54

E.g. P(A2 and B1) = .06

= the probability a fund outperforms the market
and the manager isn’t from a top-20 school.
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 Marginal Probabilities…
Marginal probabilities are computed by adding across rows
and down columns; that is they are calculated in the margins
of the table:
P(A2) = .06 + .54
“what’s the probability a fund
manager isn’t from a top school?”

B1 B2 P(Ai)
A1 .11 .29 .40
A2 .06 .54 .60
P(Bj) .17 .83 1.00

P(B1) = .11 + .06 BOTH margins must add to 1

“what’s the probability a fund (useful error check)
outperforms the market?”
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 Conditional Probability…
Conditional probability is used to determine how two events
are related; that is, we can determine the probability of one
event given the occurrence of another related event.

Conditional probabilities are written as P(A | B) and read as

“the probability of A given B” and is calculated as:

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 Conditional Probability…
Again, the probability of an event given that another event
has occurred is called a conditional probability…

Note how “A given B” and “B given A” are related…

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 Conditional Probability…
Example 6.2 • What’s the probability that a fund will
outperform the market given that the manager graduated
from a top-20 MBA program?
Recall:
A1 = Fund manager graduated from a top-20 MBA program
A2 = Fund manager did not graduate from a top-20 MBA program
B1 = Fund outperforms the market
B2 = Fund does not outperform the market

Thus, we want to know “what is P(B1 | A1) ?”

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 Conditional Probability…
We want to calculate P(B1 | A1)

B1 B2 P(Ai)
A1 .11 .29 .40
A2 .06 .54 .60
P(Bj) .17 .83 1.00

Thus, there is a 27.5% chance that that a fund will outperform the market
given that the manager graduated from a top-20 MBA program.

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 Independence…
One of the objectives of calculating conditional probability is
to determine whether two events are related.

In particular, we would like to know whether they are

independent, that is, if the probability of one event is not
affected by the occurrence of the other event.

Two events A and B are said to be independent if

P(A|B) = P(A)
or
P(B|A) = P(B)

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 Independence…
For example, we saw that

P(B1 | A1) = .275

The marginal probability for B1 is: P(B1) = 0.17

Since P(B1|A1) ≠ P(B1), B1 and A1 are not independent

events.

Stated another way, they are dependent. That is, the

probability of one event (B1) is affected by the occurrence of
the other event (A1).
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 Union…
The union of two events is denoted is the event that occurs
when either or both event occurs. It is denoted as:
A or B

We can use this concept to answer questions like:

Determine the probability that a fund outperforms the market

or the manager graduated from a top-20 MBA program.

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 Union…
Determine the probability that a fund outperforms (B1)
or the manager graduated from a top-20 MBA program (A1).

A1 or B1 occurs whenever:
A1 and B1 occurs, A1 and B2 occurs, or A2 and B1 occurs…

B1 B2 P(Ai)
A1 .11 .29 .40
A2 .06 .54 .60
P(Bj) .17 .83 1.00

P(A1 or B1) = .11 + .06 + .29 = .46

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 Union…
Determine the probability that a fund outperforms (B1)
or the manager graduated from a top-20 MBA program (A1).

B1

B1 B2 P(Ai)
A1 A1 .11 .29 .40
A2 .06 .54 .60
P(Bj) .17 .83 1.00

P(A1 or B1) = .11 + .06 + .29 = .46

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 Alternatively…
Take 100% and subtract off “when doesn’t A1 or B1 occur”?

B1
i.e. at A2 and B2

B1 B2 P(Ai)
A1 A1 .11 .29 .40
A2 .06 .54 .60
P(Bj) .17 .83 1.00

P(A1 or B1) = 1 – P(A2 and B2) = 1 – .54 = .46

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 Probability Rules and Trees…
We introduce three rules that enable us to calculate the
probability of more complex events from the probability of
simpler events…

The Complement Rule

The Multiplication Rule

The Addition Rule

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 Complement Rule…
The complement of an event A is the event that occurs when
A does not occur.

The complement rule gives us the probability of an event

NOT occurring. That is:

P(AC) = 1 – P(A)

For example, in the simple roll of a die, the probability of the

number “1” being rolled is 1/6. The probability that some
number other than “1” will be rolled is 1 – 1/6 = 5/6.

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 Multiplication Rule…
The multiplication rule is used to calculate the joint
probability of two events. It is based on the formula for
conditional probability defined earlier:

If we multiply both sides of the equation by P(B) we have:

P(A and B) = P(A | B)•P(B)

Likewise, P(A and B) = P(B | A) • P(A)

If A and B are independent events, then P(A and B) = P(A)•P(B)

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 Example 6.5…
A graduate statistics course has seven male and three female
students. The professor wants to select two students at
random to help her conduct a research project. What is the
probability that the two students chosen are female?

Let A represent the event that the first student is female

P(A) = 3/10 = .30

What about the second student?

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 Example 6.5…
Let B represent the event that the second student is female

P(B | A) = 2/9 = .22

That is, the probability of choosing a female student given

that the first student chosen is 2 (females) / 9 (remaining
students) = 2/9

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 Example 6.5…
A graduate statistics course has seven male and three female
students. The professor wants to select two students at
random to help her conduct a research project. What is the
probability that the two students chosen are female?

Thus, we want to answer the question: what is P(A and B) ?

P(A and B) = P(A)•P(B|A) = (3/10)(2/9) = 6/90 = .067

“There is a 6.7% chance that the professor will choose two

female students from her grad class of 10.”

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 Example 6.6…
The professor in Example 6.5 is unavailable. Her
replacement will teach two classes. His style is to select one
student at random and pick on him or her in the class. What
is the probability that the two students chosen are female?

Let A represent the event that the student picked at random

in the first is female

P(A) = 3/10 = .30

What about the second class?

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 Example 6.5…
Let B represent the event that the second student is female.
Because the same student in the first class can be picked
again for the second class

P(B | A) = P(B) = 3/10 = .30

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 Example 6.6…
What is the probability that the two students chosen are
female?

Thus, we want to answer the question: what is P(A and B) ?

P(A and B) = P(A)•P(B) = (3/10)(3/10) = 9/100 = .09

“There is a 9% chance that the replacement professor will

choose two female students from his two classes.”

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 Addition Rule…
Recall: the addition rule was introduced earlier to provide a
way to compute the probability of event A or B or both A
and B occurring; i.e. the union of A and B.

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)

Why do we subtract the joint probability P(A and B) from

the sum of the probabilities of A and B?

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)

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 Addition Rule…
P(A1) = .11 + .29 = .40
P(B1) = .11 + .06 = .17
By adding P(A) plus P(B) we add P(A and B) twice. To correct we subtract P(A and
B) from P(A) + P(B)

B1

B1 B2 P(Ai)
A1 A1 .11 .29 .40
A2 .06 .54 .60
P(Bj) .17 .83 1.00

P(A1 or B1) = P(A) + P(B) –P(A and B) .40 + .17 - .11 = .46

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 Addition Rule for Mutually Excusive Events
If and A and B are mutually exclusive the occurrence of one
event makes the other one impossible. This means that

P(A and B) = 0

The addition rule for mutually exclusive events is

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

We often use this form when we add some joint probabilities

calculated from a probability tree
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 Example 6.7…
In a large city, two newspapers are published, the Sun and
the Post. The circulation departments report that 22% of the
city’s households have a subscription to the Sun and 35%
subscribe to the Post. A survey reveals that 6% of all
households subscribe to both newspapers. What proportion
of the city’s households subscribe to either newspaper?

That is, what is the probability of selecting a household at

random that subscribes to the Sun or the Post or both?

i.e. what is P(Sun or Post) ?

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 Example 6.7…
In a large city, two newspapers are published, the Sun and
the Post. The circulation departments report that 22% of the
city’s households have a subscription to the Sun and 35%
subscribe to the Post. A survey reveals that 6% of all
households subscribe to both newspapers. What proportion
of the city’s households subscribe to either newspaper?

P(Sun or Post) = P(Sun) + P(Post) – P(Sun and Post)

= .22 + .35 – .06 = .51

“There is a 51% probability that a randomly selected

household subscribes to one or the other or both papers”

Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc. 6.42

 Probability Trees…
A probability tree is a simple and effective method of applying the
probability rules by representing events in an experiment by lines. The
resulting figure resembles a tree.: Recall Example 6.5

This is P(F), the probability of

selecting a female student first
First selection Second selection
= 2 / 9
)
P(F|F
3/1 0
(F ) = P( M|F
P ) = 7/9

= 3/ 9
P( M )
)=7 P(F|M
This is P(F|F), the probability of
/10
selecting a female student second, P( M|M
given that a female was already ) = 6/9
chosen first

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 Probability Trees…
At the ends of the “branches”, we calculate joint
probabilities as the product of the individual probabilities
on the preceding branches.
Joint probabilities
First selection Second selection
2 /9 P(FF)=(3/10)(2/9)
|F) =
P(F
3/1 0
) = P( M|F
P(F ) = 7/9
P(FM)=(3/10)(7/9)
= 3/ 9 P(MF)=(7/10)(3/9)
P( M )
) = 7/1 P(F|M
0
P( M|M
) = 6/9
P(MM)=(7/10)(6/9)

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 Probability Trees…
In Example 6.6 the tree and joint probabilites now look like:

FF P(FF)=(3/10)(3/10)
= 3 /10
)
P(F|F
3 / 1 0
)= P( M|F
P(F ) = 7/1
0 FM P(FM)=(3/10)(7/10)
0
P( M ) = 3/1 MF P(MF)=(7/10)(3/10)
)=7
/10 P(F|M
P( M|M
) =7/10
MM P(MM)=(7/10)(7/10)

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 Probability Trees…
The probabilities associated with any set of branches from
one “node” must add up to 1.00…

First selection Second selection

= 2/9
| F)
P(F 2/9 + 7/9
3 / 1 0
= = 9/9 = 1
P(F) P( M|F
) = 7/9

) = 3/9
P( M P(F|M
)=7
3/10 +/10 3/9 + 6/9
7/10 P( M|M = 9/9 = 1
Handy way to check ) = 6/9
your work ! = 10/10 =
1
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc. 6.46
 Probability Trees…
Note: there is no requirement that the branches splits be
binary, nor that the tree only goes two levels deep, or that
there be the same number of splits at each sub node…

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 Example 6.8…
Law school grads must pass a bar exam. Suppose pass rate
for first-time test takers is 72%. They can re-write if they fail
and 88% pass their second attempt. What is the probability
that a randomly grad passes the bar?
P(Pass) = .72
First exam

= . 72
s s )
P(Pa Second exam
P(Fail and Pass)=
a i l) = .88 (.28)(.88)=.2464
P( Fa s | F
il) = . P(Pas
28
P( Fa
il|Fail P(Fail and Fail) =
) = .12
(.28)(.12) = .0336

Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc. 6.48

 Example 6.8…
What is the probability that a randomly grad passes the bar?
“There is almost a 97% chance they will pass the bar”
P(Pass) = P(Pass 1st) + P(Fail 1st and Pass 2nd) =
= 0.7200 + 0.2464 = .9664
P(Pass) = .72
First exam

= . 72
s s )
P(Pa Second exam
P(Fail and Pass)=
a i l) = .88 (.28)(.88)=.2464
P( Fa s | F
il) = . P(Pas
28
P( Fa
il|Fail P(Fail and Fail) =
) = .12
(.28)(.12) = .0336

Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc. 6.49

 Bayes’ Law…
Bayes’ Law is named for Thomas Bayes, an eighteenth
century mathematician.

In its most basic form, if we know P(B | A),

we can apply Bayes’ Law to determine P(A | B)

P(B|A) P(A|B)
for example …
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 Example 6.9 – Pay $500 for MBA prep??
A survey of MBA students revealed that among GMAT
scorers above 650, 52% took a preparatory course, whereas
among GMAT scorers of less than 650 only 23% took a
preparatory course.

An applicant to an MBA program has determined that he

needs a score of more than 650 to get into a certain MBA
program, but he feels that his probability of getting that high
a score is quite low: 10%. He is considering taking a
preparatory course that cost $500. He is willing to do so only
if his probability of achieving 650 or more doubles. What
should he do?
Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc. 6.51
 Example 6.9 – Convert to Statistical Notation
Let A = GMAT score of 650 or more,
hence AC = GMAT score less than 650

Our student has determined their probability of getting

greater than 650 (without any prep course) as 10%, that is:

P(A) = .10
(and it follows that P(AC) = 1 – .10 = .90)

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 Example 6.9 – Convert to Statistical Notation
Let B represent the event “take the prep course”
and thus, BC is “do not take the prep course”

From our survey information, we’re told that among GMAT scorers
above 650, 52% took a preparatory course, that is:
P(B | A) = .52
(Probability of finding a student who took the prep course given that
they scored above 650…)

But our student wants to know P(A | B), that is, what is the probability
of getting more than 650 given that a prep course is taken?
If this probability is > 20%, he will spend $500 on the prep course.

Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc. 6.53

 Example 6.9 – Continued…
We are trying to determine P(A | B), perhaps the definition
of conditional probability from earlier will assist us…

We don’t know P(A and B) and we don’t know P(B). Hmm.

Perhaps if we construct a probability tree…

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 Example 6.9 – Continued…
In order to go from
P(B | A) = 0.52 to P(A | B) = ??
we need to apply Bayes’ Law. Graphically:

Score ≥ 650 Prep Test

B|A .52 A and B 0.052

10
A . B C|A .48 A and BC 0.048 Now we just
need P(B) !

AC B|A
C .23 AC and B 0.207
.90

B C|A C .77 AC and BC 0.693

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 Example 6.9 – Continued…
In order to go from
P(B | A) = 0.52 to P(A | B) = ??
we need to apply Bayes’ Law. Graphically:

Score ≥ 650 Prep Test

B|A .52 A and B 0.052

10 Marginal Prob.
A . B C|A .48 A and BC 0.048
P(B) = P(A and B) +
P(AC and B) = .259

AC B|A
C .23 AC and B 0.207
.90

B C|A C .77 AC and BC 0.693

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 Example 6.9 – FYI
Thus,

The probability of scoring 650 or better doubles to 20.1%

when the prep course is taken.

Copyright © 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc. 6.57

 Bayesian Terminology…
The probabilities P(A) and P(AC) are called prior
probabilities because they are determined prior to the
decision about taking the preparatory course.

The conditional probability P(A | B) is called a posterior

probability (or revised probability), because the prior
probability is revised after the decision about taking the
preparatory course.

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