Macro Note Cards
Macro Note Cards
Macro Notecards
Bureau of Labor Statistics: In a Nutshell Produces CPI, determines the weight of each group of product,
and defines what should go to the basket, assign percentages (like for housing, food, transportation),
monitor prices under regular basis and calculate
Consumption function C=C (Y-T)
Cost of High Inflation: Increased Uncertainty When inflation is high, it's more variable and
unpredictable: π turns out different from Eπ more often, and the differences tend to be larger, though
not systematically positive or negative.
Examples:
Cost of printing new menus
Cost of printing & mailing new catalogs
The higher is inflation, the more frequently firms must change their prices and incur these costs.
Costs of Expected Inflation: Relative Price Distortions Firms facing menu costs change prices
infrequently.
Example:
A firm issues new catalog each January.
As the general price level rises throughout the year, the firm's relative price will fall.
Different firms change their prices at different times, leading to relative price distortions . . .
. . . causing microeconomic inefficiencies in the allocation of resources.
Costs of Expected Inflation: Shoe leather Cost Definition: the costs and inconveniences of reducing
money balances to avoid the inflation tax.
If π increases, i increases (b/c Fisher effect), so people reduce their real money balances.
Remember: In long run, inflation does not affect real income or real spending.
So, same monthly spending but lower average money holdings means more frequent trips to the bank
to withdraw smaller amounts of cash.
Costs of Expected Inflation: Unfair Tax Treatment Some taxes are not adjusted to account for
inflation, such as the capital gains tax.
Example:
Jan 1: you buy $10,000 worth of Apple stock
Dec 31: you sell the stock for $11,000, so your nominal capital gain is $1,000 (10%).
Suppose π = 10% during the year.
Your real capital gain is $0.
Yet, you must pay taxes on your $1,000 nominal gain!
CPI: In a Nutshell Measure of the overall level of prices
Uses:
tracks changes in the typical household's cost of living
adjusts many contracts for inflation ("COLAs")
allows comparisons of dollar amounts over time
Constructed:
1. Survey consumers to determine composition of the typical consumer's "basket" of goods
2. Every month, collect data on prices of all items in the basket; compute cost of basket
3. 100 x (cost of basket for that month)/(cost of basket in base period)
Understanding:
The CPI is a weighted average of prices.
The weight on each price reflects that good's relative importance in the CPI's basket.
Note that the weights remain fixed over time.
Efficiency wages Theories in which higher wages increase worker productivity.
In the short run, Eπ may change when people get new information.
All the costs of moderate inflation described above become HUGE under hyperinflation.
Money ceases to function as a store of value, and may not serve its other functions (unit of account,
medium of exchange).
When the central bank prints money, the price level rises.
In the real world, this requires drastic and painful fiscal restraint.
If the tax multiplier is GREATER THAN ONE In absolute value a change in taxes has multiplier effect
on income
If the tax multiplier is NEGATIVE A tax increase reduces C, which reduces income
If the Tax multiplier is SMALLER THAN THE GOVT SPENDING MULTIPLIER Consumers save the fraction (1-
MPC) of a tax cut, so the initial boost in spending from a tax cut is smaller than from an equal increase in
G
Inflation: Benefit Nominal wages are rarely reduced, even when the equilibrium real wage falls.
This hinders labor market clearing.
Inflation allows the real wages to reach equilibrium levels without nominal wage cuts.
Relates to IS curve
Final equation:
Y = C(Y − T ) + I(r) + G
L = labor
W = nominal wage
R = nominal rental rate
P = price of output
W/P = real wage(measured in UNITS of output)
R/P = real rental rate
T = taxes
Any letter with an above score: becomes a unit of measurement (exogenous)
I = Investment
r = real interest rate
B = monetary base
rr = reserve-deposit ratio
cr = currency-deposit ratio
Y in production: output
U = unemployment
U/L = unemployment rate
E= employed workers
U / L = s / (s + f)= equilibrium unemployment rate
Production Function: Y = F(K,L); reflects economy's level of tech. and exhibits constant returns to scale
z= scaling all inputs w/same factor
Final summary: The IS-LM model combines the elements of the Keynesian cross and the elements of the
theory of liquidity preference. The IS curve shows the points that satisfy equilibrium in the goods
market, and the LM curve shows the points that satisfy equilibrium in the money market. The
intersection of the IS and LM curves shows the interest rate and income that satisfy equilibrium in both
markets for a given
price level.
Monetarists vs. Keynesian's Sight on Velocity of Money: Keynesian Fifth Commandment Use Big
Brother;
A prime responsibility of elected government is to design fiscal policies so that they both stabilize
aggregate demand and involve the government in socially worthwhile programs.
Monetarists vs. Keynesian's Sight on Velocity of Money: Keynesian First Commandment Money matters
somewhat; a number of institutional forces can in practice weaken the potency of monetary policy.
Monetarists vs. Keynesian's Sight on Velocity of Money: Keynesian Fourth Commandment Be
ready to stabilize with fiscal policy;
Carefully used, fiscal policy can be a potent stabilizer of aggregate demand. The "multiplier" effect of
larger deficits outweighs any tendency they may have to crowd our some private spending.
Monetarists vs. Keynesian's Sight on Velocity of Money: Keynesian Second Commandment Watch
interest rates as well as the money supply; The money supply affects the GNP via interest rates. Often
what looks like a strong effect of the money supply on GNP is partly a response of money supply and
bank lending to aggregate demand.
Monetarists vs. Keynesian's Sight on Velocity of Money: Keynesian Third Commandment Don't bank on
monetary policy; Three things limit in efficacy:
a) The problem of "pushing on string"
b) the special sensitivity of certain sectors, esp. housing, to changes in monetary policy
c)the real danger that the Fed, not being elected by the people, may have the wrong goals.
Monetarists vs. Keynesian's Sight on Velocity of Money: Monetarist Fifth CommandmentFear Big
Brother; Active fiscal policy means big government. Big government takes away our freedoms and stifles
initiative.
Monetarists vs. Keynesian's Sight on Velocity of Money: Monetarist First Commandment Know that
money matters a lot;
The most powerful determinent of the level of GNP is the money supply. A 10% rise in the money supply
will sooner or later raise GNP by 10% or more.
Monetarists vs. Keynesian's Sight on Velocity of Money: Monetarist Fourth Commandment Do not
bank on fiscal policy; Though tax cuts might have been a good idea in the 1930's fiscal policy has a weak
effect on aggregate demand. Raising government deficits(raise in taxes) outs private spending (less
buying) somewhat. Fiscal policy also takes effect only with a lag, so that well-meant attempt to stabilize
usually bring instability.
Monetarists vs. Keynesian's Sight on Velocity of Money: Monetarist Second Commandment Watch
the money supply;
To understand how the money supply affects GNP, do not watch interest rates. A rise in the money
supply raises GNP directly, not through interest rates. A rise in the money supply could raise interest
rates as easily as lower them.
Monetarists vs. Keynesian's Sight on Velocity of Money: Monetarist Third Commandment
Stabilize the growth of the money supply;
To stabilize the economy, the Fed should not at all try to stabilize interest rates. It should not even use
its own discretion and judgment much. The Fed should follow only one simple rule; no matter what,
keep the money supply growing moderately.
Money Demand and the Nominal Interest Rate In the quantity theory of money, the demand for real
money balances depends only on real income Y.
Another determinant of money demand: the nominal interest rate, i.
the opportunity cost of holding money (instead of bonds or other interest-earning assets).
Outsiders Unemployed non-union workers who prefer equilibrium wages, so that there would be
enough jobs for them
Policy Implication A policy will reduce the natural rate of unemployment only if it lowers S or
increases F
Production Function in the Short Run: In a Nutshell Pt.1 Y = F(K,L); reflects economy's level of tech. and
exhibits constant returns to scale
z= scaling all inputs w/same factor, therefore
K2 = zK1 and L2 = zL1
assumptions:
technology, supplies and capital of labor are fixed
Production Function in the Short Run: In a Nutshell Pt.2 Assume markets are competitive: each firm
takes W, R, and P as given.
Marginal Product of Labor:The extra output the firm can produce using an additional unit of labor
(holding other inputs fixed):
MPL = F (K, L +1) - F (K, L)
___1______= 5
1-0.8
The Keynesian Cross A simple closed-economy model in which income is determined by expeniture
I= planned investment
PE= C+I+G= planned expenditure
Y= real GDP= actual expenditure
The difference between actual and planned expenditure= unplanned inventory investment
The Monetary Base: General Ideas i. Add currency to the reserve [B = C + R is the theory]
Monetary base, B = C + R
controlled by the central bank
M= C + D = [(C + D)/B] x B = m x B
m = cr + 1 / cr + rr
The Monetary System: Money Itself Functions: Medium of exchange, store of value, unit of account
Types:
1. Fiat money
has no intrinsic value
example: the paper currency we use
2. Commodity money
has intrinsic value
examples: gold coins, cigarettes in P.O.W. camps
The Monetary System: Quantitative Easing i. The Fed is buying long-term bonds and mortgages
ii. WE had this in 2008: To keep the long term interest rate at the lower level, and mortgage-bank
securities improved due to the Housing Market Crash
The Fed also bought mortgage-backed securities to help the housing market.
But after losses on bad loans, banks tightened lending standards and increased excess reserves, causing
money multiplier to fall.
If banks start lending more as economy recovers, rapid money growth may cause inflation. To prevent,
the Fed is considering various "exit strategies."
The Monetary System: The Feds and Their Roles Roles: Control money supply by:
1) Using open market operations (purchase & sale of gov. bonds),
2) Reserve deposit ratio
a) Reserve requirements: Fed regulations that impose a minimum reserve-deposit ratio
b) Interest on reserves: The Fed pays interest on bank reserves deposited with the Fed
c) To reduce the reserve-deposit ratio, the Fed could pay a lower interest rate on reserves and reduce
reserve requirements
3) The interest rate the Fed charges on loans and banks (discount rate)
a) To increase the base, the Fed could lower the discount rate, encouraging banks to borrow more
reserves.
Fact: Since 2008, the Fed was following expansive-minded policy by lowering the reserve ratio, buying
securities, and buying at discount rates
Trump Administration raised interest rates twice due to fear of inflation, as well as the increase of risk-
taking.
The Monetary System: The Money Multiplier If rr < 1, then m > 1
m is the money multiplier, the increase in the money supply resulting from a one-dollar increase in the
monetary base.
The Money Demand Function (M/P )^d = L(i, Y)
(M/P )^d = real money demand, depends
i. negatively on i
a. i is the opp. cost of holding money
ii. positively on Y
("L" is used for the money demand function because money is the most liquid asset.)
The Money Demand Function: Nominal Interest Rate (M/P)^d=L(r + Eπ, Y)
When people are deciding whether to hold money or bonds, they don't know what inflation will turn out
to be.
Hence, the nominal interest rate relevant for money demand is r + Eπ.
The Quantity Equation M × V = P × Y; It is an identity: it holds by definition of the variables.
The Quantity Theory of Money Assumes V is constant & exogenous:
M x V(underscore) = P x Y
The Quantity Theory of Money: Concepts Normal economic growth requires a certain amount of
money supply growth to facilitate the growth in transactions.
When people hold lots of money relative to their incomes (k is large), money changes hands infrequently
(V is small).
The tax multiplier The change in income resulting from $1 increase in T
Change in Y/ Change in T
__-MPC________
1-MPC
The Theory of Liquidity Preference Relates to LM curve (positive slope): The supply and demand for
real money balances determine the interest rate.
In other words, higher income leads to a higher interest rate.
(M/P)^s= (Fixed supply of M/P)
M=Money
P=Price value
M/P= the supply of real money balances
Price level is fixed so a reduction in the money supply reduces supply of real money balances leading to
the equilibrium
interest rate rising
Velocitythe number of times the average dollar bill changes hands in a given time period (value of all
transactions/money supply)
Velocity: Difference between Nominal GDP and total transactions Nominal GDP includes the value
of purchases of final goods;
total transactions also include the value of intermediate goods.
Velocity: Using Nominal GDP for total transactions V = (P x Y)/M; where P = price of ouput, Y=
quanitity of ouput and P x Y = value of output
What policy or policy can we come up to try to reduce the natural rate of unemployment? 1. Stop
raising the (nominal) minimum wage, so that is real value will gradually erode to zero
2. Regulate unions to reduce unions' impact on wages
3. Reduce the generosity of unemployment benefits
4. Increase public funding to help retrain workers displaced from jobs in declining industries
Why is the IS curve negatively sloped? A fall in the interest rate motivates firms to increase investment
spending, which drives up total planned spending (PE)
Change in Y= Change in G