Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 82 (2018) 1261–1271

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Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/rser

Lifetime extension of onshore wind turbines: A review covering Germany, MARK

Spain, Denmark, and the UK
⁎
Lisa Zieglera,b,1, , Elena Gonzalezc,1, Tim Rubertd,1, Ursula Smolkaa,1, Julio J. Meleroc
a
Ramboll Wind, Stadtdeich 7, 20097 Hamburg, Germany
b
Department of Civil and Transport Engineering, NTNU, Høgskoleringen 7A, 7491 Trondheim, Norway
c
CIRCE – Universidad de Zaragoza, Mariano Esquillor 15, 50018 Zaragoza, Spain
d
Doctoral Training Centre in Wind and Marine Energy Systems, University of Strathclyde, 204 George Street, G1 1XW Glasgow, UK

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: A significant number of wind turbines will reach the end of their planned service life in the near future. A
Lifetime extension decision on lifetime extension is complex and experiences to date are limited. This review presents the current
Wind turbine state-of-the-art for lifetime extension of onshore wind turbines in Germany, Spain, Denmark, and the UK.
Remaining useful lifetime Information was gathered through a literature review and 24 guideline-based interviews with key market
Decision making
players. Technical, economic and legal aspects are discussed. Results indicate that end-of-life solutions will
Operation and maintenance
develop a significant market over the next five years. The application of updated load simulation and inspections
for technical lifetime extension assessment differs between countries. A major concern is the uncertainty about
future electricity spot market prices, which determine if lifetime extension is economically feasible.

1. Introduction very limited literature is presently available.

On the technical side, recommendations for lifetime extension as-
In 2016, 12% of the installed wind turbine capacity in Europe was sessment were recently published by DNV GL [2], UL [3], Megavind
older than 15 years. This share increases to 28% by 2020 [1]. These [4], and the German Association of Wind Energy [5]. Holzmüller [6]
wind turbines will soon reach the end of their designed service life, applied generic aero-elastic models of onshore wind turbines to reassess
which is typically 20 years. As a consequence, the wind industry needs fatigue loading in line with site-specific conditions. Ziegler and Musk-
to prepare for upcoming challenges, such as maintenance of aging as- ulus [7] performed fatigue reassessment for offshore wind turbines.
sets, assessment of structural integrity, lifetime extension decision Loraux and Brühwiler [8] analysed two years of strain gauge mea-
making, and decommissioning of turbines. Lifetime extension is ap- surements from a wind turbine tower and estimated the remaining fa-
pealing in that it can increase returns on investment of existing projects, tigue life with this data set. The importance of load measurement
but experiences to date are limited. campaigns to accurately depict the effect of wakes from neighboring
Operators must decide which option is best for their aging wind turbines on the remaining fatigue lifetime was stressed by Karlina-
farms; options include: i) lifetime extension, ii) repowering, and iii) Barber et al. [9]. On the economics side, drivers of lifetime extension
decommissioning of the site. Technical, economic and legal aspects were discussed by Rubert et al. [10]. Luengo and Kolios [11] review
drive the decision-making process. For lifetime extension, wind tur- different end-of-life scenarios. A decision model on the optimal time to
bines must have sufficient structural life remaining that their safety switch from lifetime extension to repowering was presented by Ziegler
level is not compromised. In addition, wear-out of components trans- et al. [12]. To the knowledge of the authors, no study on the interaction
lates into higher operation and maintenance (O & M) costs and turbine of technical, economic, and legal aspects has so far been published.
downtime. Wind farm operators must sell the produced energy at the The objective of this paper is to investigate the current trends,
spot market or find bi-lateral agreements if no governmental subsidies challenges, and research needs relating to lifetime extension of wind
exist. Changes in legislation prohibit repowering of some existing wind turbines. In order to achieve this goal, this paper reviews the current
farm sites. Uncertainties make the decision process complex and only state-of-the-art for lifetime extension of onshore wind turbines based on

Abbreviations: O & M, Operation and maintenance; RUL, Remaining useful lifetime; SCADA, Supervisory control and data acquisition; IEC, International Electrotechnical Commission;
NREL, National Renewable Energy Laboratory; DIBt, Deutsches Institut für Bautechnik
⁎
Corresponding author at: Ramboll Wind, Stadtdeich 7, 20097 Hamburg, Germany.
E-mail address: [email protected] (L. Ziegler).
1
Author covered one country.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.09.100
Received 4 January 2017; Received in revised form 2 September 2017; Accepted 26 September 2017
Available online 21 October 2017
1364-0321/ <outputStr5> This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/BY/4.0/).
L. Ziegler et al. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 82 (2018) 1261–1271

available scientific literature, standards and guidelines, together with Spain and the UK it is decreasing [1]. This reduction is driven by
qualitative interviews with key market players. A comprehensive changes in political incentives, scarcity of sites for wind farm devel-
overview of the market as well as technical, economic, and legal aspects opment in the case of Denmark, and problems with public acceptance as
of lifetime extension is presented for the selected countries of Germany, for example in the case of the UK [13]. In Spain, almost no new wind
Spain, Denmark, and the UK. Furthermore, the practice of technical turbines have been installed since 2013 due to a drastic change of
assessment and decision-making is compared between the countries. legislation, referred to as ‘Energy Reform’. The new regulation entailed
Five challenges and further needs for research are derived from the a complete removal of subsidies and incentives, such as the prior feed-
results. in tariff and feed-in premium schemes [14,15]. In summary, despite
The remainder of this paper is organised as follows. Section 2 de- Europe’s 2030 renewable energy targets, new installations are dropping
scribes the research methodology combining literature review and ex- at a time when the fleet is aging.
pert interviews with country-specific market players. Background in- Currently, Denmark, Germany and Spain have a significant capacity
formation on the wind energy market is presented in Section 3 for each of old wind farms connected to the grid that are now facing the end of
country. Section 4 presents results on lifetime extension as an outcome their planned service life. The situation is as follows:
of the review of scientific literature and standards; technical, economic,
and legal aspects are discussed. The design of the expert interviews and – In 2016, roughly 3400 wind turbines had exceeded 20 years of
achieved results are presented in Section 5. Results are discussed in operational life in Germany [16].
Section 6 and conclusions presented in Section 7. – The situation in Denmark is similar with 1250 turbines being older
than 20 years in 2016 [17].
2. Research methodology – More than 500 turbines had completed their 20-year lifetime in
Spain in 2016, and this will increase to more than 4200 turbines in
Publicly accessible sources like standards, scientific articles, and 2020 [18].
reports contain limited information on the current lifetime extension – In the UK only 19 onshore wind farms have exceeded 20 years of
practice within the wind industry. To overcome this shortcoming, fur- operation as of November 2016: of these eleven are still in operation
ther data is gathered through the consultation of experts in the field (through lifetime extension), two were decommissioned, and five
using a consistent interview template. Fig. 1 illustrates the research projects were repowered [19,20]. No public information was
approach, which combines a thorough literature review with expert available for the one remaining wind farm. In total fourteen re-
interviews in order to collect information on the state-of-the-art of powering projects have been completed or approved in the UK since
lifetime extension. 2010 [21].
Germany, Spain, Denmark, and the UK were selected for the study
since lifetime extension is either important for them today due to the The future age distribution of installed wind capacity almost looks
age of the fleet (Denmark, Germany, Spain) or will be in the near future dramatic. By 2020, 41% of the currently installed capacity in Germany
(UK). In addition, these countries have rather different contexts in will be over 15 years old, 44% in Spain, and 57% in Denmark. The UK
terms of their subsidy schemes, legislation, market structure and scar- has a comparatively younger fleet with a share of 10% of the current
city of sites, which is expected to influence the application of lifetime installed capacity that will be older than 15 years in 2020. These
extension. Further information on the market characteristics of these numbers refer to a scenario for 2020 projected from the installed ca-
countries is given in Sections 3 and 4. pacity of the year 2016 without considering future installations.
Fig. 2 illustrates the annual number of wind turbines that will reach
3. Background on wind turbines at end-of-life the end of their planned service life in Germany, Spain, Denmark, and
the UK. It is clear that there is a significant market for end-of-life so-
In 2015, Germany, Spain, and the UK had the largest cumulative lutions for Germany, Denmark and Spain over the next decade, fol-
installed wind capacity in Europe [1]. In Denmark, the installed wind lowed by the UK after 2024. For these countries, around 2000-4000
capacity is comparatively less due to its smaller geographical area. turbines per year will either need to be life extended, repowered or
Denmark, however, is leading in terms of the wind energy contribution decommissioned.
to the national electricity consumption with 42.1% in 2015 [1]. Al- In addition, Fig. 3 illustrates the rated power of turbines that reach
though the countries selected for this study are pioneers in wind energy, their end of design lifetime at present and in near future. In 2016,
their industry developed differently over the past years. The annual turbines considered for lifetime extension were rated below 1 MW.
installed capacity in Germany is still increasing, while in Denmark, From 2020 onwards, larger turbines will reach their 20th year of op-
eration. In the future, it is expected that technology will progress less
rapidly than over the past decades. Advances between existing and
potentially repowered turbines diminish as time progresses and make
lifetime extension more attractive.

Fig. 1. Research methodology. Information of the current status of lifetime extension is Fig. 2. Number of onshore wind turbines reaching 20-years of operation annually in
gathered through a review of literature and qualitative expert interviews. Denmark, Germany, Spain and the UK. Data sources [16–18,22].

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Fig. 3. Rated power of turbines reaching 20-years

lifetime today and in the next five, ten and 15 years
in Denmark, Germany, Spain and the UK. Data
sources [16–18,22].

4. Literature review on lifetime extension conditions than defined in the corresponding IEC class, remaining
structural reserves can be left at the end of the design lifetime. In ad-
4.1. Key market players dition, structural reserves may arise if the capacity factor and opera-
tional hours of a turbine are below design assumptions. The time until
Lifetime extension involves interests and competences of various structural reserves are consumed while maintaining the target safety
players within the industry. Operators see the potential to increase re- level is denoted Remaining Useful Lifetime (RUL). As all load-carrying
turn on investments in existing wind parks. On the other hand, they are components have different RULs, the lowest one defines the potential
responsible for the structural safety of their assets. Operators need to for lifetime extension. Replacement of critical component may increase
mitigate risks of an increase of failure rates of aged wind turbines the RUL of the overall system.
causing additional downtime and expenses for repair. Wind turbine Non-load carrying components do not endanger structural safety
manufacturers have detailed knowledge regarding turbine design and under the assumption that they do not cause critical cascade effects.
share an interest in O & M strategies. They are able to execute site- Nevertheless, wear out of these components can increase failure rates.
specific assessments during project development phases to estimate the This results in higher costs for maintenance and repair in addition to
lifetime extension potential. Governmental organizations are concerned production losses from turbine downtime. Ziegler et al. [12] showed
with the health and safety of citizens and are further challenged with that the business case for lifetime extension is very sensitive to mod-
implementation of renewable energy targets. Such institutions have to elling of wear out and failure rates. Bathtub curve models divide the
choose which incentives are suitable to achieve objectives. Certifying operational life of repairable systems into early failures, constant failure
agencies provide security for investors and contribute to delivering op- rates, and wear out [26]. These models have been applied to wind
erational safety. There is an emerging service market aimed at pro- turbines [27,28]; however, their applicability is questionable due to
viding expert reviews for technical lifetime extension assessments. The complexity of the system [29].
safety reputation of wind energy technology is a major concern for the
entire industry. 4.2.2. Technical lifetime extension assessments
The option of lifetime extension must be based on the operating
4.2. Technical aspects conditions of the turbine during its design lifetime. Technical assess-
ments are needed to determine the RUL and ensure that target safety
4.2.1. Design lifetime, structural safety and remaining useful lifetime levels for the wind turbine are maintained during lifetime extension. All
Wind turbines are designed to withstand operational and environ- load-carrying components must be considered. Technical lifetime ex-
mental loading for a specified design lifetime with an appropriate tension assessment can be analytical (simulation), practical (inspec-
structural safety level. The design lifetime should be at least 20 years tion), and/ or data-driven (measurements) [2,5].
according to the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) The analytical assessment is typically an updated load simulation
standard [23]. Target safety levels specify an acceptable annual prob- undertaken using an aero-elastic model of the wind turbine [2]. Fatigue
ability of structural failure. Safety levels are achieved by verification of assessments are made for the original design basis and also for site-
ultimate and fatigue strength of the material against loading. Both, specific environmental conditions. The difference between these results
loading and material strength, are multiplied with partial safety factors is an estimate of the RUL available for lifetime extension. Ideally, the
[23]. According to DNV GL [2] and UL [3] the focus for lifetime ex- analytical assessment should use original design models calibrated with
tension is on the fatigue limit state. It is not necessary to reassess ul- on-site measurements. In practice, a generic turbine model is often used
timate limit states when site conditions are less harsh than design as- because the original design assumptions are not available due to con-
sumptions. fidentiality. A generic turbine model approximates the real structure
Wind turbines are dynamic systems exposed to aerodynamic loading where design information is not available (e.g. rotor geometry, con-
and quasi-periodic excitation from the rotor. Structural components troller settings, modal parameters) [5]. Cooperation from turbine
typically face between 108 and 109 load cycles over their lifetime. Load manufacturer is required for sharing of type certificates and other de-
cycles are compared to material SN-curves for the design of load-car- sign information. The industry recognizes that generic models must
rying components of the wind turbine [24,25]. SN-curves specify the
number of cycles that a material can endure at a certain stress range – use state-of-art for aero-elastic simulations,
until failure. The failure criterion is typically defined when a fatigue – represent structural dynamics appropriately, and
crack penetrates through the thickness of the specimen. Loading is – include uncertainty assessments and safety factors [3].
calculated using structural dynamics models of the wind turbine with
environmental conditions as input [23]. The operational environment A reference project considered a 600 kW turbine assessed by eight
of wind turbines is complex with turbulent wind fields, wind shear, independent experts using generic models; it showed acceptable
wind veer, gusts, and wakes from surrounding turbines. Local condi- agreement, however details were not disclosed [5]. On the other hand,
tions can differ significantly from one site to another (e.g. terrain sensitivity studies have shown that changes to the control system of
complexity, neighboring wind farms, obstacles, atmospheric stability, wind turbines can significantly influence loading and fatigue life
etc.). Wind turbines are type certified according to IEC classes in order [30–32]. An overview of the effect of control strategies on service
to simplify and standardize design and manufacture [23]. If a wind lifetime is given by Beganovic and Söffker [33]. Today, experimental
turbine is installed at a specific site, local wind conditions are assessed measurements are not performed to validate generic models due to cost
beforehand. The suitable wind turbine IEC class is determined so that reasons. Large errors can occur in the calculation of RUL if model as-
local conditions do not exceed those used for turbine certification. sumptions are invalid, e.g. due to undetected rotor imbalances [32].
If a wind turbine is operating under more benign environmental Short-term load measurement campaigns can help to reduce

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uncertainty with limited expenditure [9,34]. condition monitoring and fault detection [43]. For example, Gonzalez
Site-specific conditions needed as input for the analytical method and Melero [44,45] scrutinised high-frequency SCADA data to monitor
are the performance of wind turbines. Further studies are needed to address
the use of SCADA data in technical assessment of lifetime extension. In
– environmental conditions: distribution of wind speed and direction, order to measure loads or monitor the health of structural components,
turbulence intensity (ambient and wake), wind shear, air density, additional sensors are required. Monitoring of load histories enables a
and direct comparison between design loads and occurred loads in order to
– operational conditions: turbine availability, number of shut-downs calculate RUL [46]. Several techniques exist for structural health
and start-ups [5]. monitoring which are either local (monitoring of a specific component)
or global (vibration-based monitoring of the entire structure). Struc-
If these data are not available, conservative assumptions can be tural health monitoring aims to fulfil four goals which are given in
made [5]. Some of this data can be accessed from the Supervisory ascending order of difficulty: detection, localization, quantification, and
Control And Data Acquisition (SCADA) system. SCADA systems are prediction of damage. Further information on structural health mon-
used for control and performance monitoring of wind turbines [35]. For itoring is given in [33,47,48].
modern turbines, SCADA data is readily available at no additional cost.
It must be used carefully as sensors might not be calibrated accurately
4.3. Economic aspects
and are subject to degradation over time [36]. Measurements from
nacelle anemometers and power outputs are included in SCADA data by
4.3.1. Operators and operational costs
default. This may be used to reconstruct operational conditions and the
In Germany and Denmark wind farms are generally owned by small
wind history at hub height. However, nacelle anemometers are influ-
operators with few assets, whilst in Spain the majority of wind turbines
enced by the rotor and the reliability of the reproduction of free stream
are owned by a handful of large operators, namely Iberdrola, Acciona
wind velocities depends on the quality of its calibration [36,37]. The
Energía, EDP Renováveis, and Enel Green Power [49]. This has a sig-
accuracy of turbulence intensity data obtained from the nacelle an-
nificant impact on the lifetime extension strategy as larger operators
emometer is questionable [38]. Ambient turbulence intensity can be
have more operational data available. Moreover, they have extensive
determined from short-term meteorological mast data with long-term
experience with older assets in their fleet and benefit from a holistic
corrections based on statistical analysis [39]. Wake-added turbulence
fleet assessment approach. Danish operators have low costs for O & M
can be calculated using the Frandsen wake model [23,40]. Environ-
compared to the other countries [50]. This may be due to generally
mental data is always affected by uncertainty. Toft et al. [41] estimate
good wind conditions of Danish sites and economies of scale, but also
the coefficient of variation for wind speed (3–7%), ambient turbulence
due to low fixed and variable costs. In Germany, O & M costs in years
intensity (7–9%), wake effects (10–20%), and air density (3%). For the
11–20 were approximately 10% higher than for years 1–10 according to
5 MW National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) turbine uncertain
[51].
wind conditions were found to contribute 1–3% to the total uncertainty
Important market characteristics for the four countries are sum-
of fatigue damage equivalent loads [41]. Uncertainty in material re-
marised in Table 1. O & M costs are given as a sum of fixed costs (ad-
sistance and other factors were observed as more important. The source
ministration, insurance, maintenance contracts, grid fees, land lease,
code for the aero-elastic model from the 5 MW wind turbine developed
etc) and variable costs (expenses for non-covered maintenance, repair,
by NREL is publicly available and broadly accepted by the scientific
material, labour) in agreement with [50].
community for research purposes.
Practical assessment comprises a detailed inspection of the turbine
and review of its maintenance history. Details of components, failure 4.3.2. Subsidy schemes
modes, and inspection methods are given in [4]. The analytical method In Germany, wind energy subsidies are regulated by the Renewable
is able to quantify RUL, while practical methods can only confirm the Energy Act [55]. Wind farms commissioned before April 2000 receive a
current health status and may predict near future failures. Assessments fixed feed-in tariff until 2020 regardless of the asset age. This means
using only practical methods must thus be repeated periodically [42]. that all wind farms operating in lifetime extension remain subsidised by
The availability of data determines which assessment approach is the fixed feed-in tariff until 2020. After 2020, all lifetime extended
applicable for lifetime extension. MegaVind [4] outlines four scenarios: wind farms are required to sell their electricity at the spot market.
(I) no design basis or operational measurements, (II) design basis but no Turbines commissioned after 2000 are guaranteed a fixed feed-in tariff
operational measurements, (III) design basis with operational mea- for only 20 years. Thus, they are dependent on the energy spot market
surements, and (IV) design basis with operational and load measure- as soon as they enter lifetime extension (or even before if the design
ments. Data-driven assessments are important for lifetime extension in lifetime is above 20 years). Since January 2016 the subsidy depends on
categories III and IV. Data-driven assessments can be categorised into the amount of newly installed capacity in order to limit annual growth
approaches using data from the operational phase and approaches that to 2.8 GW [55]. The latest change of the Renewable Energy Act in-
require temporary or permanent installation of additional sensors. troduces a tender model starting in 2017 [56].
Operational measurements are typically represented in SCADA data, At present, the wind industry in Spain is subject to a significant
such as turbine availability, power production, yaw direction, compo- degree of uncertainty. In 2012, the Spanish government suspended
nent status, etc. Today's research focuses on the use of SCADA data for previous economic incentives by abolishing the remuneration scheme
applied for ‘Special Regime’ production facilities (including

Table 1
Characteristics of the wind energy market in Germany, Spain, Denmark, and the UK.

Parameter Sources Germany Spain Denmark UK

Installed capacity [GW] (2015) [1] 45 23 5.1 13.6

% of electricity consumption (2015) [51,52] 9.7% 17.9% 42.1% 13.3%
O & M costs [cent/kWh] (2013–14) [50,53] 3.1 2.9 1.7 2.8
Operators [54] Many/ small Few/ large Many/ small Many/ small-large
Site availability – Limited Many Limited Many

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cogeneration, waste and renewable energy plants) [14,57]. This re- no international regulation in place. Wind turbines are type certified for
sulted in stagnation of the wind industry (cf. Section 3). Spain’s current their design lifetime [23]. Once this type certification expires, turbines
remuneration scheme is set in the Law 24/2013 [58]. This scheme are governed by country-specific regulations to ensure structural safety
retroactively modified the remuneration of existing and future projects, during any period of lifetime extension (if available). Fig. 5 illustrates
based on a theoretical concept of ‘reasonable profit’; the profitability is legal requirements for Germany, Spain, Denmark and the UK.
fixed by law at 7.5% throughout the whole regulated lifetime of the In Denmark, certification of wind turbines is regulated in Executive
project. According to this scheme, energy is sold at the spot market and Order No. 73 [42]. It requires that wind turbines subjected to lifetime
might be supplemented if the level of ‘reasonable profit’ is not reached. extension must receive extended service inspections from certified
Each regulatory period lasts for 6 years, but estimates of revenues and companies. Such inspections must consider all structural components
profitability might be revised every 3 years. In practice, lifetime ex- and cover at minimum:
tension, repowering and investments in new wind farms face the same
economic environment. In each scenario, the investor/operator has to – annual inspections of the machine frame, tower, foundation for
cope with the uncertainty of the spot market price. cracks, main shaft for dents and rust, yaw bearing for wear, and
In Denmark, wind turbines commissioned after January 2014 are inspection and tightening of bolts, as well as
guaranteed a bonus payment per kWh on top of the market price – a visual inspection of rotor blades every three years [42].
(‘premium tariff’) [59]. The regulation for turbines commissioned be-
fore 2014 depends on the date of connection and turbine size. In gen- In Germany, wind turbines are classified as fixed structures and
eral, the premium tariff is either limited to 10 years or a pre-defined require certification of structural safety. This is regulated in the stan-
number of full load hours [59]. Entering lifetime extension does not dard for wind turbines by the German institute for construction tech-
change the economics of aging turbines in Denmark as their electricity nology (DIBt) [71]. This standard requires an assessment of structural
is sold on the spot-market beforehand. stability for lifetime extension and refers to the Germanische Lloyd
In the UK, fixed feed-in tariffs are only applicable for wind farms with ‘Guideline for the Continued Operation of Wind Turbines’ [72]. The
a total capacity of less than 5 MW. Feed-in tariffs are guaranteed for 20 Germanische Lloyd guideline is now replaced by [2] but the link to it in
years but rates have been decreasing constantly since 2012 [60]. Wind the DIBt document remains valid. In addition, DIBt requires that an
farms above 5 MW are subsidised under the renewable obligation (RO) independent, qualified expert performs the lifetime extension assess-
scheme introduced in 2002. For onshore wind farms the RO scheme was ment based on an analytical as well as practical approach [72].
terminated in 2016 with a grace period active until 2019 [10,61]. Sub- In contrast to Denmark and Germany, there is no official guidance
sidies for existing wind turbines under the RO scheme will potentially that regulates lifetime extension in Spain and the UK. The general
continue until 2037 (independent of turbine age). A change towards a regulatory framework for industrial safety applies, independent of the
fixed RO pricing is agreed by the government and scheduled for market age of the wind farm.
introduction in 2027 [62]. A contract for difference (CfD) regime was
introduced in 2015 which is comparable to the future auctions in Ger-
many [10,63]. Subsidies from the tender system are only guaranteed for 4.4.2. Regulations for repowering
15 years; lifetime extension and repowering are not considered. The goal of repowering is to replace old wind turbines with a new
In summary, electricity generation during lifetime extension is not generation that have higher energy yields and improved ancillary ser-
subsidised in Denmark and Spain. Germany will face the same situation vices such as frequency response that can contribute to the stability of
from 2020 onwards. In these cases, the electricity spot market de- the power system. Repowering is important if a country faces a scarcity
termines the revenue during lifetime extension. Fig. 4 shows the de- of sites with suitable wind conditions, such as in Germany and Denmark
velopment of spot prices in Germany, Spain, Denmark, and the UK over (cf. Section 3). This was part of the political motivation for repowering
the past four years. Markets in Germany and Denmark experienced a subsidies. However, today no political repowering subsidies exist in
decrease in price level. Yearly average spot prices changed up to Germany, Spain, Denmark, and the UK. Repowering bonuses were re-
15€/MWh between 2012 and 2015. These fluctuations make the busi- moved in Germany in 2014 [73] and 2016 in the UK (grace period until
ness case uncertain. A fixed-price for the next ten years is estimated 2019) [10]. In Spain, repowering bonuses were announced in the Re-
as 22€/MWh in Denmark [4]. This is below the current price level newable Energy Plan PER 2011–2020 [74], but never materialised due
and shows that market players are pessimistic about future price de- to subsequent suspension of the plan. Repowering projects are similar
velopments. to new projects apart from the available grid connection and historical
records of wind conditions. Repowering projects require the same detail
of documentation and due diligence, such as environmental impact
4.4. Legal aspects assessments, legal consent, and public acceptance.
Sites with existing wind farms are often impossible to repower due
4.4.1. Legal requirements for lifetime extension to lack of availability of the site, legal consent, changes in subsidies,
Requirements for lifetime extension are country-specific as there is environmental protection, public acceptance, or insufficient wind con-
ditions. From the technical side, new turbines may result in modified
spacing to accommodate wakes. In Germany, the state of Bavaria in-
troduced in 2014 a regulation that sets a new minimum distance of ten
times the tip-height between a wind turbine and the closest residential
areas [75]. In the UK, the repowering market is now ‘more or less gone’
[21] due to the termination of the RO scheme (although the RO scheme
is still open until 2019 for sites with planning permission received prior
to the 18th of June 2015). Repowering was discussed as an alternative
in Spain by Colmenar-Santos et al. [76], leading to the conclusion that
it appears to be a feasible option within a specific technical and re-
munerative framework. Repowering needs long-term financial stability
and legal security to justify investment. Unfortunately, Spain presently
Fig. 4. Development of spot prices at the electricity market for Germany, Spain, Denmark
suffers from significant political instability and uncertainty that in
and the UK in €/MWh [64–70]. practice undermines repowering as an option [15,54].

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Fig. 5. Legal requirements for lifetime extension in Germany,

Denmark, Spain, and the UK.

5. Expert interviews agencies (2) and other institutions (4). In total 22 of the interviewed
candidates are currently involved in projects dealing with lifetime ex-
5.1. Design of interviews tension. The companies of the remaining two interviewees have no
projects on lifetime extension so far. However, they have run case
Expert interviews were used to supplement information gathered studies and consider this as a field for future business development.
from literature review presented in the previous section. Guideline- Project experiences of the selected experts included operation and
based expert interviews were chosen as a qualitative research method. maintenance of lifetime extended wind turbines, technical assessments,
Qualitative research is commonly applied in social sciences if quanti- commercial evaluation of business cases, and the development of
tative methods are not feasible due to the lack of available data and guidelines and standards. Fig. 6 (right, top) shows the distribution of
their representativeness [77,78]. Lifetime extension is still an immature the working experience; on average, participants have worked 10.5
industry and sufficient data to allow statistical analysis is not yet years in the wind industry. 23 out of 24 interviewees (96%) have a
available. Master of Science or Master of Engineering degree (or equivalent); one
Bogner et al. [79] grouped expert interviews into three categories: interviewee has a Bachelor degree. Although having a technical back-
exploratory, systemizing, and theory generating. Exploratory inter- ground, the majority of interviewees work now in high-level manage-
views are guided openly and aim to provide a framework of a new ment. The remaining participants were senior engineers, project man-
research field. Systemizing interviews use structured guidelines to re- agers, and advisors. Statistics for job categories of the interviewees are
construct knowledge with the target to be comparable, repeatable, and presented in the bottom right of Fig. 6.
complete. Theory generating interviews collocate specialised knowl- The interviews took on average 45 min. 71% of the interviews were
edge from highly experienced professionals [79]. The reader is referred conducted via phone and 29% through one to one meeting. The inter-
to [77,79] for details on qualitative research and expert interviews. views were transcribed by handwritten notes into a structured template
In this study, the interviews were designed following the steps il- according to the interview guideline. Interview results were compared
lustrated in Fig. 6 (left). The research question was to compare the with data from literature and standards or guidelines whenever pos-
current industrial practice of lifetime extension in the wind industry sible. Results of the interviews were sent back to all interviewed experts
between Germany, Spain, Denmark, and the UK. Therefore, the objec- for feedback.
tive of the interviews was to identify motivations for lifetime extension,
technical assessments, activities to understand the health status of the
asset, and decision making and uncertainties for each country. 5.2. Interview results
This study applies systemizing expert interviews so that results are
comparable between countries. An interview guideline was developed 5.2.1. Motivation for lifetime extension
consisting of introductory questions, filtering questions, and key ques- The interviews revealed two settings for which lifetime extension is
tions [80]. Each question is followed-up with a specified question in relevant: (I) for existing wind farms approaching the end of their design
order to systemize participant’s responses while keeping the interview lifetime and (II) for new projects.
adaptable to the expert’s specialization area. Table 2 presents the in- Overall, the motivation for existing wind farms is similar for all
terview guideline and exemplar responses from an expert. The inter- countries:
view guideline was summarised into keywords for a comprehensive
overview in this paper. 1. Interviewees agreed that the driving motivation for lifetime exten-
In this study, wind energy experts are defined to have more than sion is to maximize the return on investment.
three years of working experience. Experts must currently be working 2. Lifetime extension is mainly performed when the site is impossible
in an organization that deals with an aspect of lifetime extension such or uneconomic to repower (cf. Section 4.4.2).
as remaining useful lifetime calculations, inspection, monitoring, fi- 3. Public acceptance for lifetime extension of existing wind farms is
nancing, and certification. A list of potential interview partners was perceived to have less local opposition than repowering with larger
developed with the goal to cover different market players. rotors and hub heights. This argument was mainly stressed by par-
Overall, 36 suitable candidates were contacted via email, telephone ticipants from the UK.
and one to one meetings. The initial contact introduced the research 4. Refinancing of wind projects was mentioned to ensure pay back of
objectives, use of data, a summarised interview guideline, as well as the borrowed capital by modification of interest rates.
partners and funding bodies of the study. As an incentive for partici-
pation, the interviewed experts were promised a report of the study and In Germany, the guaranteed feed-in tariff until 2020 is a large
an executive summary containing relevant results. The response rate motivation for lifetime extension. This is similar for British wind farms
was 66.7%, hence 24 experts agreed to be interviewed. The interviewed under the RO scheme until 2027/2037. In Spain, wind farms are not
experts worked in the following sectors: operators (8), developers and governed under any form of subsidy during lifetime extension but the
independent experts (6), wind turbine manufacturers (4), certifying situation is comparable to new wind farms. Since new wind projects are
more capital intensive than lifetime extension, the latter was stated as

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Director
Head of Department
Project Manager
Senior Engineer
Advisor

Fig. 6. Left: Flowchart of the design of expert interviews. Right, top: Years of working experience of interviewed experts in the wind industry. Right, bottom: Distribution of job categories
of participants.

the preferred option in the interviews. Scarcity of available sites with operational time at a specific site. Planning for extended service dura-
good wind conditions in Germany and Denmark is a driver for repow- tion is also seen as a competitive advantage for lowering the price bid in
ering, while there are still suitable sites available in Spain and the UK. tender systems, in agreement with previous publications [10].
Regarding new wind farms, the majority of interviewees stated that
it is important to know the total service life possible for their assets in
order to fit contracts for financing of capital, land lease, and grid con- 5.2.2. Lifetime extension assessment performed in Germany, Spain,
nection. The turbine manufacturer may offer an estimation of the total Denmark, and the UK
The interviews revealed large differences on how lifetime extension

Table 2
Interview guideline, paired with an example of participants' responses that are transformed into keywords. The guideline consists of introductory questions (intro), filtering questions
(filter), key questions (key), and follow up questions.

Type Content Follow-up questions Exemplar responses

Intro Name, country, job title Focus on technical or commercial aspects John Doe, Germany, Senior Engineer
Filter Role of company in lifetime Selection from list of 10 categories Operator, OEM, certification body
extension
Filter Motivation for lifetime extension Focus on operating assets or future projects Increase return on investment of operating assets
Filter Experience with lifetime extension Technical assessments, internal decisions, financial Internal decision of an operator for an aging wind park
transactions, or due diligence
Key Maintenance Preventive, predictive, corrective maintenance Preventive and corrective maintenance
Full or partial service contracts Full service contract with OEM
Record of O & M history Logbook available for every turbine
Key Monitoring Type and target values SCADA, no load or vibration monitoring
Key Assessment of RUL Parties involved Independent expert, OEM
Data used, data sources, uncertainty Wind conditions, SCADA, logbook
Models used Design model not available, use of generic turbine model
Costs 10000€ for single turbine
Key Retrofit Critical components Tightening of bolts required
Key Certification Application Report for structural stability, no certification
Motivation Certification not required
Use of standards/ guidelines Application of DNV GL guideline required through DIBt
Key Decision making Factors in decision making RUL, site impossible to repower
Selection of three most important uncertainties from list of 12 Future market price electricity, performance degradation,
availability of spare parts
Difficulties and concerns Access to design information
Key Investments Technical, commercial, legal Report for structural stability
Key Outlook Developments needed Data-driven assessments

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Table 3
Lifetime extension assessments performed in industry today (compiled from interviews).

Parameter Germany & Spain Denmark UK

Analytical assessment Use of generic aero-elastic turbine models to reassess fatigue loading – Assessment of wind history; occasionally load
for specific sites analysis
Practical Assessment Extended inspection; O & M history
Approach Individual assessment of every turbine
Monitoring SCADA; No short-term load measurements or monitoring, (few exceptions)
Assayer Independent expert (DE: legally required, ESP: voluntary) Maintenance provider certified In-house quality assurance
Frequency Analytical part performed once; Inspection scope may be Annually Every 3–5 years
periodically
Advantages Analytical part gives long-term RUL Avoid costs of load analysis
Limitations Estimated costs 5000–15000€ for single turbine (DE); no cost data Estimated costs 1500€ per No cost data available
available for Spain turbine
Assessment cannot predict long-term RUL

assessments are performed. The differences are driven by country-spe- rely on their O & M contracts.
cific regulations (cf. Section 4.3 and 4.4), policies of operators, as well Typical maintenance activities include performance monitoring
as the extent of their assets. Key findings are summarised in Table 3. using SCADA data, preventive maintenance with routine inspections,
The assessment structure in Germany is set by legal requirements. and corrective maintenance after failure. One interviewee used high-
For Spain, a similar assessment approach was reported which is moti- frequency SCADA data (sampling interval between 1 and 10 s). The
vated by (I) reduction of risk on structural safety and (II) more certainty remaining interviewees either had only access to 10-min statistics or no
for financial planning as the total RUL is obtained from analytical as- SCADA data at all for turbines below 1 MW rated power. Predictive
sessment. Interview partners stated that the use of original design maintenance based on operational data is desirable but still in the early
models for analytical assessments is not feasible due to confidentiality stages of commercialization. A good record of O & M including failure
of turbine manufacturers. The common approach was to consult an occurrences is understood as an advantage for faster, cheaper and more
independent expert who does the assessment using a generic model of reliable lifetime extension assessment.
the turbine. Verification and validation of the generic models are still
unsolved issues in practice. 5.2.4. Decision and uncertainties
Feedback from the UK was scattered as some parties use load re- The decision on lifetime extension is influenced by (I) the technical
assessment. The majority, however, seem to focus on practical assess- asset health status, (II) requirements for lifetime extension, (III) reg-
ment supported by analysis of the history of environmental condition ulations for repowering, and (IV) subsidy schemes for existing as well as
and maintenance incidents. In Denmark, it is common practice to use new wind farms. The end-of-life situation requires a decision between
only practical assessments for cost reasons. Practical inspections cannot lifetime extension of the old wind farm, repowering with a new set of
confirm that target safety levels are maintained during lifetime exten- wind turbines, and decommissioning of the site. If the site is suitable for
sion. A comparison of loads and material properties is needed for this. repowering (cf. Section 4.4.2), the optimal point in time to replace old
According to the interview feedback, inspections are repeated periodi- turbines has to be determined. If repowering is not possible, lifetime
cally if no analytical assessment is made. extension should be assessed. The key questions is whether operational
Experimental measurements are rarely performed, as this is hardly costs are balanced by revenues for the produced energy assuming that
cost-effective. The interviewees confirmed that the level of data avail- capital costs are paid back at the end of the design lifetime. Revenues
able for lifetime extension projects today is typically either category (I) either come from subsidies or the electricity market directly (cf. Section
no design basis or operational measurements or category (II) design 4.3.2).
basis but no operational measurements (cf. Section 4.2.2). Small-size The technical assessment indicates the possible period for lifetime
wind turbines (below 1 MW rated power) approaching lifetime exten- extension from a structural safety point of view (cf. Section 4.2). In-
sion today often have no continuous backup of SCADA data. Partici- terview partners emphasised the following uncertainties on the tech-
pants from Germany stated that data-driven assessments do not play a nical side amongst others: original design assumptions and on-site wind
role in practice up to now as insufficient data is available. conditions (turbulence intensity, wind speed). Increase of failure rates
of non-load carrying components can make lifetime extension un-
5.2.3. Health status and maintenance of assets economic. Uncertainty about future failure rates was not a major con-
The health status of wind turbines depends critically on both site cern of operators. Since lifetime extension requires only low invest-
environmental conditions and maintenance strategy. Interviewees ments, a common approach is to terminate turbine operation if costly
confirm a good knowledge of asset health after 15 years of operation. repairs become necessary.
Turbine and site specific issues are well known and prognosis of future On the economic side, large uncertainty regarding electricity market
O & M costs is not seen as a major challenge. Interviewed operators prices was seen as most critical. Uncertainty in annual energy produc-
estimate slightly increasing O & M costs for aging assets, in agreement tion was stated to be well below market price uncertainties. If the
with published data [51] and bathtub curve models [26]. market price is below 3 cent/kWh, continued operation of small wind
Maintenance of wind turbines is either performed by the original turbines is considered infeasible by the majority of interviewed parties.
turbine manufacturer, a maintenance provider or directly in-house by Concerns of the interview participants regarding lifetime extension are
the operator. Maintenance contracts may consist of full or partial cov- summarised in Table 4.
erage. No clear trend towards either type could be identified between
the interview participants. Interviewees stated, however, that standard 6. Discussion
full maintenance contracts are not affordable for lifetime extension.
Suggested alternatives are to exclude the guarantee for large compo- The executed study revealed a lack of certainty regarding lifetime
nents and make the contract terminable at any point in case a major extension decision making. German interviewees see a potential for
investment is needed. Maintenance audits are uncommon; operators lifetime extension until 2020. However, they are sceptical what

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Table 4
Concerns of interviewees regarding lifetime extension projects.

Technical Economic Others

• Missing documentation • Uncertainty in electricity market • Unclear authority requirements

• Access to design information price • Extension of land lease
• Wind history • Unavailability of spare parts • Security of maintenance technicians
• Change of wind conditions due to new surrounding wind farms and
other changes in the neighbourhood
• Costs of non-load carrying parts • Negative image for wind industry from potential failure
due to low-quality assessments

happens to the market after subsidies vanish. Lifetime extension is The key challenges identified are uncertainties regarding lifetime ex-
primarily important for sites without the ability to repower since sub- tension assessments and market prices (cf. Section 5.2.4). This leads to
sidies for new wind farms remain economically attractive today. The several research needs as discussed in the following.
situation is the opposite in Spain, where lifetime extension is labelled as
‘the only option’ due to a lack of incentives for new wind farms. In the 1. What level of detail is needed in technical lifetime extension as-
UK, repowering is not considered as a viable future option due to the sessment in order to balance costs and benefits? This study revealed
termination of the RO scheme, and hence wind farms which are already that there is no consensus at present. Lifetime extension requires a
subsidised under the RO scheme are attractive for lifetime extension. precise business case considering the expected revenues of less than
This leads to the conclusion that countries with favourable legal and 3 cent/kWh in future electricity markets. Sophisticated assessments
economic conditions for repowering (e.g. profitable subsidy schemes might not be economically feasible. Future research should address
for new wind farms, scarcity of sites, etc.) and with market prices of the question of how target safety levels can be maintained with
electricity uneconomic for small wind turbines are likely to experience minimum expenditure. Can inspection-only strategies fulfil this
less interest in lifetime extension in the next years. On the other hand, goal? Must generic models be validated? How accurate are lifetime
interest in lifetime extension is expected to increase in countries where extension estimates taken in the pre-build phase by manufacturers?
conditions for new wind parks are unfavourable. Technical assessments 2. How are long-term site conditions obtained reliably and cost-effec-
performed for lifetime extension vary across the countries investigated. tively? Methodologies to determine site conditions from long-term
The form of assessment used is either determined by legal requirements operational turbine data should be improved. SCADA data is at-
(Germany, Denmark) or by the internal motivations of market players tractive for this as it is readily available. Further research is needed
regarding risk management and financial planning if legal requirements to assess the potential of new measurement devices such as lidar
are absent (Spain, UK). It is expected that there will be further con- [81] and spinner anemometers [82].
solidation of the industry towards consistent assessment methods as 3. How should a data-driven approach to lifetime extension assessment
more guidelines are emerging. best be undertaken? Data-driven assessment can be favourable if
cost-effective or if analytical approaches do not provide sufficiently
accurate estimates of RUL. This is the case when large safety factors
6.1. Limitations
are required due to uncertainties in the analytical assessment.
Structural health monitoring can help to identify additional struc-
The main limitation of the current study is the lack of quantitative
tural reserves.
data. Quantitative results could not be presented since limited experi-
4. How can lifetime extension be profitable if wind farms are exposed
ence in the field does not offer sufficient data for statistical analysis. In
to the electricity market without subsidy? Both levers – decreasing
addition, technical and economic project performance is often con-
operational costs and increasing revenues – should be addressed
fidential, highly case-specific and cannot be generalised. The study
here. The optimization of maintenance concepts for aging turbines is
showed that there is no clear approach for lifetime extension; concepts
an identified key aspect where predictive maintenance has a key
differ considerably in their details. This made it impossible to quantify
role. Future research should examine operational strategies that
existing concepts. Literature on the topic of lifetime extension was very
optimize the economic value of produced power rather than simply
limited making it necessary to supplement this review with information
maximizing power production. Examples are preferential operation
gathered by qualitative expert interviews. A weakness of the executed
of turbines during high market prices, or load reduction strategies.
interviews is that only a small database of experts was interviewed due
5. How are future experiences with lifetime extension to be used ef-
to the limited availability of suitable experts. Once the lifetime exten-
fectively? Current as well as upcoming lifetime extension experience
sion market matures, a larger database may be established by trans-
may help to reduce uncertainty on the degradation and failure rates
forming the personal interviews into online surveys. In addition, in-
of aging turbines. Ideally, these experiences will be well docu-
terviews are prone to response bias, interaction between interviewer
mented in a database. Furthermore, international standardization of
and interviewee, and communication difficulties. The interview
methodologies for lifetime extension assessment is important to
guideline was designed to overcome these weaknesses. For example,
promote its practice.
filtering questions were used to identify subjectivity of the experts due
to their job positions and interests of the companies.
The study is limited to the status of lifetime extension in Germany,
7. Conclusions and outlook
Spain, Denmark, and the UK. Results show that the motivation and
assessments for lifetime extension are strongly linked to country-spe-
The market for end-of-life solutions is still in its infancy, but is ex-
cific aspects, such as the subsidy scheme, repowering characteristics,
pected to grow significantly in the next five years. Germany and
and legal requirements. Care must be taken when generalizing the re-
Denmark are leading the consolidation of industry towards a consistent
sults to other countries not investigated in this study.
technical lifetime extension assessment process initiated by legal re-
quirements. The German procedure (analytical and practical assess-
6.2. Challenges and research needs ment) is costlier than the Danish inspection based approach.
Analytical assessment is performed using structural models and real
Results from literature and interviews indicate that there are still site conditions in order to verify the safety level of turbine components.
significant challenges regarding lifetime extension of wind turbines. The use of generic models is problematic if calibration data is missing.

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Real site conditions are difficult to obtain using cost-effective methods. The authors thank the editor and five anonymous reviewers for their
Data-driven methodologies can complement or even substitute for comments. The authors thank David Infield (University of Strathclyde)
analytical models but more research is needed to obtain low-cost so- for checking the manuscript for English grammar, syntax and spelling.
lutions. The practical approach can only confirm the current health
status of the wind turbine but not the level of structural safety or RUL. References
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