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5.1 Homework

This document contains a quiz with 7 questions about probability concepts. Question 1 asks about interpreting a probability as a long-run relative frequency and which type of error is more serious for a lie detector test. Question 2 asks about the probability a couple's child will have cystic fibrosis and if having 4 children guarantees one will have it. Question 3 asks about whether a baseball player is "due" for a hit based on past performance. Questions 4-6 present probability simulations and ask whether the designs are valid. Question 7 asks which digit assignments correctly simulate a probability of U.S. households containing 5 or more people.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
73 views4 pages

5.1 Homework

This document contains a quiz with 7 questions about probability concepts. Question 1 asks about interpreting a probability as a long-run relative frequency and which type of error is more serious for a lie detector test. Question 2 asks about the probability a couple's child will have cystic fibrosis and if having 4 children guarantees one will have it. Question 3 asks about whether a baseball player is "due" for a hit based on past performance. Questions 4-6 present probability simulations and ask whether the designs are valid. Question 7 asks which digit assignments correctly simulate a probability of U.S. households containing 5 or more people.

Uploaded by

oceanolive2
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Due on 5.

1 Quiz Day
Name:
5.1 Homework

1. Sometimes police use a lie detector (also known as a polygraph) to


help determine whethera suspect is telling the truth. A lie detector
test isn’t foolproof—sometimes it suggests that a person is lying when
he or she is actually telling the truth (a “false positive”). Other times,
the test says that the suspect is being truthful when the person is
actually lying (a “false negative”). For one brand of polygraph
machine, the probability of a false positive is 0.08.
. (a) Interpret this probability as a long-run relative frequency.

. (b) Which is a more serious error in this case: a false positive or


a false negative? Justify your answer.

2. Genetics Suppose a married man and woman both carry a gene for
cystic fibrosis but don’t have the disease themselves. According to the
laws of genetics, the probability that their first child will develop
cystic fibrosis is 0.25.
. (a) Explain what this probability means.

. (b) If the couple has 4 children, is one of them guaranteed to


get cystic fibrosis? Explain.

3.  A very good professional baseball player gets a hit about 35% of


the time over an entire season. After the player failed to hit safely in
six straight at-bats, a TV commentator said, “He is due for a hit by the
law of averages.” Is that right? Why?

4. On her drive to work every day, Ilana passes through an


intersection with a traffic light. The light has probability 1/3 of being
green when she gets to the intersection. Explain how you would use a
six-sided die to simulate whether the light is red or green on a given
day.

5. Determine whether each of the following simulation designs is


valid. Justify your answer.
(a) According to a recent poll, 75% of American adults regularly
recycle. To simulate choosing a random sample of 100 U.S. adults and
seeing how many of them recycle, roll a 4-sided die 100 times. A
result of 1, 2, or 3 means the person recycles; a 4 means that the
person doesn’t recycle.

(b) An archer hits the center of the target with 60% of her shots. To
simulate having her shoot 10 times, use a coin. Flip the coin once for
each of the 10 shots. If it lands heads, then she hits the center of the
target. If the coin lands tails, she doesn’t.

6. You read in a book about bridge that the probability that each of
the four players is dealt exactly one ace is about 0.11. This means that

(a) in every 100 bridge deals, each player has one ace exactly 11
times.
(b) in 1 million bridge deals, the number of deals on which each
player has one ace will be exactly 110,000.
(c) in a very large number of bridge deals, the percent of deals on
which each player has one ace will be very close to 11%.
(d) in a very large number of bridge deals, the average number of
aces in a hand will be very close to 0.11.
(e) If each player gets an ace in only 2 of the first 50 deals, then each
player should get an ace in more than 11% of the next 50 deals.

7. Ten percent of U.S. households contain 5 or more people. You want


to simulate choosing a household at random and recording “Yes” if it
contains 5 or more people. Which of these are correct assignments of
digits for this simulation?
(a) Odd = Yes; Even = No
(b) 0 = Yes; 1–9 = No
(c) 0–5 = Yes; 6–9 = No
(d) 0–4 = Yes; 5–9 = No
(e) None of these
Name:
5.2 Homework
1. All human blood can be typed as one of O, A, B, or AB. Here is the
distribution of the blood type of a randomly chosen American:

Blood O A B AB
Type
Probabilit 0.49 0.27 0.20 ??
y

a. Find the probability of having type AB blood.

b. What is the probability of not having type AB blood?

c. Maria has type B blood. She can safely receive blood


transfusions from people with blood types O and B. What is the
probability that a randomly chosen American can donate blood
to Maria?

2. Students in an urban school were curious about how many children


regularly eat breakfast. They conducted a survey, asking, “Do you eat
breakfast on a regular basis?” All 595 students in the school
responded to the survey. The resulting data are shown in the two-way
table below.

If we select a student from the school at random, what is the


probability that the student is
a. A female?

b. Someone who eats breakfast regularly?

c. A female and eats breakfast regularly?

d. A female or eats breakfast regularly?

3. In government data, a household consists of all occupants of a


dwelling unit. Choose an American house- hold at random and count
the number of people it contains. Here is the assignment of
probabilities for the outcome:

The probability of finding 3 people in a household is the same as the


probability of finding 4 people. These probabilities are marked ??? in
the table of the distribution. The probability that a household contains
3 people must be
(a) 0.68. (b) 0.32. (c) 0.16. (d) 0.08. (e) between 0 and 1, and we
can say no more.

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