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Huge Problem: Confidential 1

The document discusses token velocity and how it impacts token valuation. It defines velocity as the total trading volume divided by the average network value. It provides the example of ticket issuance protocols having very high velocity, as consumers and venues will want to immediately exchange tokens for preferred currencies like USD rather than hold the tokens. Protocols can engineer lower velocity by introducing profit sharing to incentivize long term holding. Overall high velocity means the token price may not appreciate much despite increasing usage of the protocol.

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Leonardo Garcia
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
66 views

Huge Problem: Confidential 1

The document discusses token velocity and how it impacts token valuation. It defines velocity as the total trading volume divided by the average network value. It provides the example of ticket issuance protocols having very high velocity, as consumers and venues will want to immediately exchange tokens for preferred currencies like USD rather than hold the tokens. Protocols can engineer lower velocity by introducing profit sharing to incentivize long term holding. Overall high velocity means the token price may not appreciate much despite increasing usage of the protocol.

Uploaded by

Leonardo Garcia
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 5

By​ ​Kyle​ ​Samani

There​ ​are​ ​a​ ​lot​ ​of​ ​variables​ ​that​ ​that​ ​impact​ ​the​ ​valuation​ ​of​ ​a​ ​token.​ ​The​ ​primary​ ​ones​ ​are:

1) Why​ ​is​ ​a​ ​decentralized​ ​protocol​ ​superior​ ​to​ ​a​ ​centralized​ ​alternative?
2) Why​ ​is​ ​a​ ​particular​ ​protocol​ ​superior​ ​to​ ​decentralized​ ​alternatives?
3) Total​ ​addressable​ ​market​ ​-​ ​if​ ​the​ ​protocol​ ​fulfills​ ​its​ ​vision,​ ​how​ ​much​ ​commerce​ ​can​ ​it​ ​power?
4) How​ ​strong​ ​are​ ​the​ ​network​ ​effects?
5) Quality​ ​of​ ​team
6) Progress​ ​-​ ​how​ ​far​ ​along​ ​is​ ​it?
7) Token​ ​velocity​ ​-​ ​will​ ​people​ ​hold​ ​onto​ ​the​ ​asset,​ ​or​ ​will​ ​they​ ​sell​ ​it​ ​immediately?

Velocity​ ​is​ ​probably​ ​the​ ​least​ ​discussed​ ​of​ ​these,​ ​and​ ​the​ ​hardest​ ​to​ ​understand.​ ​In​ ​this​ ​post,​ ​I’ll​ ​dive
into​ ​velocity​ ​and​ ​provide​ ​some​ ​examples.​ ​I’ll​ ​conclude​ ​by​ ​reviewing​ ​how​ ​teams​ ​can​ ​engineer​ ​lower
velocity​ ​into​ ​their​ ​protocols.

A​ ​High​ ​Velocity​ ​Example:​ ​Ticket​ ​Issuance

Ticket​ ​fraud​ ​(literally​ ​reprinting​ ​and​ ​selling​ ​the​ ​same​ ​ticket​ ​multiple​ ​times)​ ​for​ ​live​ ​events​ ​is​ ​a​ h
​ uge
problem​.​ ​There’s​ ​a​ ​reasonable​ ​case​ ​to​ ​be​ ​made​ ​that​ ​tickets​ ​for​ ​live​ ​events​ ​should​ ​be​ ​issued​ ​on
blockchains.​ ​If​ ​venues​ ​come​ ​to​ ​accept​ ​blockchain-issued​ ​tickets,​ ​this​ ​solution​ ​should​ ​stomp​ ​out​ ​100%
of​ ​fraud.​ ​You​ ​can’t​ ​double​ ​spend​ ​blockchain-based​ ​assets.

Issuing​ ​tickets​ ​on​ ​blockchains​ ​can​ ​bring​ ​other​ ​benefits​ ​(e.g.​ ​disallow​ ​resale,​ ​profit​ ​shares​ ​on​ ​resale
back​ ​to​ ​venue,​ ​capping​ ​resale​ ​amounts,​ ​etc.)

I​ ​love​ ​this​ ​use​ ​case​ ​for​ ​blockchains.​ ​This​ ​use​ ​case​ ​unlocks​ ​a​ ​lot​ ​of​ ​value:​ ​no​ ​fraud,​ ​reduced​ ​scalping,
reduced​ ​fees​ ​to​ ​middlemen​ ​like​ ​Ticketmaster/Stubhub.

But​ ​I​ ​don’t​ ​own,​ ​or​ ​plan​ ​to​ ​own,​ ​any​ ​cryptoassets​ ​that​ ​are​ ​trying​ ​to​ ​solve​ ​this​ ​problem.​ ​Why​ ​not?
Because​ ​these​ ​tokens​ ​will​ ​have​ ​a​ ​high​ ​velocity.

There​ ​is​ ​no​ ​reason​ ​that​ ​I,​ ​as​ ​a​ ​full​ ​time​ ​crypto​ ​investor,​ ​want​ ​to​ ​actually​ ​want​ ​to​ h
​ old​​ ​Aventus​,
Ticketchain​,​ ​or​ ​Blocktix​​ ​tokens.​ ​But​ ​I​ ​think​ ​that​ ​in​ ​time,​ ​many​ ​people​ ​will​ ​want​ ​to​ u ​ se​​ ​these​ ​tokens.​ ​I’ll
use​ ​Aventus​ ​as​ ​an​ ​example​ ​below,​ ​but​ ​I​ ​don’t​ ​mean​ ​to​ ​pick​ ​on​ ​Aventus​ ​in​ ​particular.​ ​Everything​ ​below
is​ ​generally​ ​true​ ​of​ ​Ticketchain,​ ​Blocktix,​ ​and​ ​many​ ​other​ ​cryptoassets​ ​as​ ​well.

Consumers​ ​generally​ ​want​ ​to​ ​pay​ ​a​ ​price​ ​denominated​ ​in​ ​USD​ ​(or​ ​maybe​ ​in​ ​the​ ​future,​ ​ETH​ ​or​ ​BTC)
and​ ​get​ ​their​ ​tickets.​ ​They​ ​may​ ​purchase​ ​Aventus​ ​tokens​ ​as​ ​part​ ​of​ ​the​ ​process​ ​to​ ​acquire
blockchain-issued​ ​tickets,​ ​but​ ​Aventus​ ​will​ ​just​ ​that:​ ​a​ ​small​ ​and​ ​temporary​ ​step​ ​in​ ​the​ ​process.
Consumers​ ​will​ ​generally​ ​not​ ​hold​ ​Aventus​ ​tokens​ ​for​ ​more​ ​than​ ​a​ ​few​ ​minutes​ ​at​ ​a​ ​time​ ​because​ ​they
have​ ​no​ ​incentive​ ​to.

Confidential Page​ ​1
Venue​ ​hosts​ ​won’t​ ​care​ ​to​ ​hold​ ​these​ ​cryptoassets​ ​either.​ ​Venue​ ​hosts​ ​care​ ​about​ ​generating​ ​profits
denominated​ ​in​ ​the​ ​currency​ ​of​ ​their​ ​choice,​ ​likely​ ​USD,​ ​or​ ​eventually​ ​BTC​ ​or​ ​ETH.​ ​After​ ​consumers
trade​ ​Aventus​ ​tokens​ ​for​ ​concert​ ​tickets,​ ​venue​ ​hosts​ ​will​ ​trade​ ​Aventus​ ​tokens​ ​for​ ​their​ ​preferred
currency.

This​ ​process​ ​is​ ​shown​ ​below.​ ​In​ ​this​ ​example,​ ​I’m​ ​assuming​ ​that​ ​all​ ​parties​ ​prefer​ ​USD​ ​as​ ​their​ ​reserve
currency.​ ​This​ ​diagram​ ​would​ ​still​ ​hold​ ​true​ ​with​ ​another​ ​reserve​ ​currency​ ​such​ ​as​ ​BTC​ ​or​ ​ETH.

This​ ​creates​ ​an​ ​interesting​ ​dynamic​ ​in​ ​which​ ​the​ ​people​ ​who​ ​get​ ​paid​ ​in​ ​Aventus​ ​tokens​ ​don’t​ ​actually
want​ ​to​ ​hold​ ​Aventus​ ​tokens.​ ​The​ ​moment​ ​they​ ​receive​ ​Aventus​ ​tokens,​ ​they​ ​will​ ​sell​ ​them…​ ​to
someone​ ​else​ ​who​ ​wants​ ​to​ ​buy​ ​different​ ​concert​ ​tickets,​ ​or​ ​a​ ​market​ ​maker​ ​(who​ ​will​ ​sell​ ​them​ ​to
someone​ ​who​ ​wants​ ​to​ ​buy​ ​concert​ ​tickets).

Even​ ​if​ ​Aventus​ ​becomes​ ​the​ ​global​ ​standard​ ​for​ ​ticket​ ​issuance,​ ​no​ ​one​ ​will​ ​want​ ​to​ ​hold​ ​Aventus
tickets.​ ​BTC,​ ​ETH,​ ​and/or​ ​USD​ ​denominated​ ​trading​ ​volume​ ​for​ ​Aventus​ ​tokens​ ​may​ ​skyrocket​ ​as
Aventus​ ​becomes​ ​the​ ​global​ ​ticketing​ ​standard,​ ​but​ ​the​ ​price​ ​won’t​ ​actually​ ​go​ ​up​ ​much.​ ​Everyone​ ​who
buys​ ​into​ ​Aventus​ ​will​ ​sell​ ​their​ ​Aventus​ ​immediately.

The​ ​only​ ​people​ ​who​ ​will​ ​profit​ ​from​ ​the​ ​success​ ​of​ ​rise​ ​in​ ​trading​ ​volume​ ​of​ ​Aventus​ ​tokens​ ​will​ ​be
market​ ​makers​ ​who​ ​provide​ ​liquidity​ ​for​ ​those​ ​entering​ ​and​ ​exiting​ ​the​ ​Aventus​ ​market.​ ​This​ ​is​ ​not​ ​a
bad​ ​thing.​ ​As​ ​asset​ ​pairs​ ​increase​ ​in​ ​volume​ ​and​ ​become​ ​highly​ ​liquid,​ ​bid-ask​ ​spreads​ ​will​ ​collapse​ ​to
near​ ​0%,​ ​which​ ​is​ ​good​ ​for​ ​consumers​ ​and​ ​venue​ ​hosts.​ ​Market​ ​makers​ ​may​ ​take​ ​a​ ​few​ ​basis​ ​points,​ ​or
even​ ​a​ ​few​ ​dozen​ ​basis​ ​points,​ ​but​ ​not​ ​more​ ​than​ ​that.​ ​These​ ​fees​ ​are​ ​certain​ ​to​ ​be​ ​lower​ ​than​ ​credit
card​ ​fees.

To​ ​be​ ​clear,​ ​in​ ​this​ ​proposed​ ​future​ ​venue​ ​hosts​ ​still​ ​win​ ​by​ ​cutting​ ​out​ ​scalpers,​ ​and​ ​consumers​ ​win
because​ ​of​ ​increased​ ​fraud​ ​protection.​ ​But​ ​coin​ ​holders​ ​don’t​ ​really​ ​win​ ​since​ ​the​ ​price​ ​of​ ​the​ ​coin​ ​won’t
go​ ​up​ ​enough​ ​to​ ​justify​ ​the​ ​risk​ ​of​ ​investment.

Confidential Page​ ​2
The​ ​analysis​ ​above​ ​doesn’t​ ​imply​ ​that​ ​Aventus​ ​should​ ​be​ ​worth​ ​near​ ​$0.​ ​This​ ​analysis​ ​assumes​ ​no
speculation,​ ​which​ ​will​ ​never​ ​be​ ​true.​ ​Also,​ ​if​ ​volumes​ ​increase,​ ​it’s​ ​natural​ ​that​ ​some​ ​people​ ​will​ ​buy
and​ ​hold​ ​the​ ​asset​ ​simply​ ​because​ ​increases​ ​in​ ​volume​ ​typically​ ​correlate​ ​with​ ​increases​ ​in​ ​price​ ​in
crypto​ ​land.​ ​Insiders​ ​will​ ​also​ ​hold​ ​shares.​ ​However,​ ​this​ ​limited​ ​number​ ​of​ ​market​ ​participants​ ​will​ ​not
be​ ​sufficient​ ​to​ ​counteract​ ​the​ ​market​ ​forces​ ​of​ ​high​ ​velocity,​ ​especially​ ​in​ ​the​ ​absence​ ​of​ ​massive
speculative​ ​value.

Quantifying​ ​Velocity

Velocity​ ​=​ ​Total​ ​Trading​ ​Volume​ ​/​ ​Average​ ​Network​ ​Value

Velocity​ ​can​ ​be​ ​measured​ ​over​ ​any​ ​time​ ​span.​ ​For​ ​standardization​ ​purposes,​ ​we’ll​ ​measure​ ​it​ ​annually.

We​ ​can​ ​say​ ​that​ ​an​ ​asset​ ​has​ ​a​ ​velocity​ ​of​ ​0​ ​if,​ ​over​ ​the​ ​course​ ​of​ ​one​ ​year,​ ​no​ ​one​ ​buys​ ​or​ ​sells​ ​the
asset.​ ​The​ ​lack​ ​of​ ​liquidity​ ​would​ ​cause​ ​the​ ​asset​ ​to​ ​trade​ ​at​ ​a​ ​discount​ ​to​ ​“intrinsic”​ ​value.​ ​Assets​ ​need
some​ ​velocity​ ​to​ ​achieve​ ​intrinsic​ ​value.​ ​This​ ​is​ ​known​ ​as​ ​the​ l​ iquidity​ ​premium​.

Let’s​ ​say​ ​Bitcoin​ ​has​ ​an​ ​average​ ​network​ ​value​ ​of​ ​$1B​ ​over​ ​the​ ​course​ ​of​ ​a​ ​year.​ ​Bitcoin​ ​would​ ​have​ ​a
velocity​ ​of​ ​1​ ​if​ ​$1B​ ​worth​ ​of​ ​Bitcoin​ ​trades​ ​over​ ​that​ ​period.

In​ ​the​ ​last​ ​24​ ​hours,​ ​there​ ​were​ ​about​ ​$1.5B​ ​of​ ​Bitcoins​ ​traded​ ​on​ ​exchanges.​ ​This​ ​excludes​ ​OTC
volumes,​ ​which​ ​could​ ​be​ ​significant.​ ​The​ ​network​ ​value​ ​of​ ​Bitcoin​ ​is​ ​about​ ​$70B.​ ​This​ ​implies​ ​an
annualized​ ​velocity​ ​of​ ​$1.5B​ ​*​ ​365​ ​/​ ​$70B​ ​=​ ​7.8x​ ​(ignoring​ ​OTC).

By​ ​non-crypto​ ​standards,​ ​this​ ​is​ ​an​ ​extraordinary​ ​velocity.​ ​Equities​ ​as​ ​a​ ​whole​ ​are​ w
​ orth​​ ​about​ ​$70T
and​ ​trade​​ ​about​ ​$70T​ ​annually.​ ​Amazingly,​ ​Litecoin​ ​has​ ​an​ ​even​ ​higher​ ​velocity​ ​than​ ​Bitcoin.

(Note,​ ​this​ ​rudimentary​ ​analysis​ ​implies​ ​that​ ​crypto​ ​prices​ ​will​ ​continue​ ​to​ ​rise​ ​as​ ​institutional​ ​capital
converts​ ​from​ ​fiat​ ​to​ ​crypto.​ ​In​ ​comparing​ ​crypto​ ​velocities​ ​to​ ​equity​ ​velocities,​ ​institutional​ ​capital​ ​tends
to​ ​hold​ ​equities​ ​on​ ​average​ ​longer​ ​than​ ​current​ ​crypto​ ​holders​ ​hold​ ​crypto.​ ​Given​ ​how​ ​large​ ​the
disparity​ ​is​ ​between​ ​equities​ ​and​ ​crypto​ ​velocities,​ ​it’s​ ​likely​ ​that​ ​crypto​ ​velocity​ ​will​ ​decrease​ ​as​ ​equity
capital​ ​transitions​ ​to​ ​crypto​ ​capital.)

It’s​ ​difficult​ ​to​ ​say​ ​what​ ​future​ ​velocities​ ​should​ ​or​ ​shouldn’t​ ​be.​ ​We​ ​can​ ​look​ ​to​ ​things​ ​like​ ​equities,
commodities,​ ​and​ ​retail,​ ​but​ ​cryptoassets​ ​are​ ​different.​ ​It’s​ ​difficult​ ​at​ ​this​ ​stage​ ​to​ ​confidently​ ​say​ ​what
normal​ ​velocity​ ​ranges​ ​should​ ​be.

How​ ​Protocols​ ​Can​ ​Reduce​ ​Asset​ ​Velocity

There​ ​are​ ​a​ ​few​ ​ways​ ​a​ ​protocol​ ​can​ ​reduce​ ​the​ ​velocity​ ​of​ ​its​ ​associated​ ​asset:

1)​ ​The​ ​first​ ​mechanism​ ​to​ ​reduce​ ​velocity​ ​is​ ​to​ ​introduce​ ​a​ ​profit​ ​share.​ ​For​ ​example,​ A
​ ugur​​ ​($REP)
tokens​ ​pay​ ​out​ ​coin​ ​holders​ ​who​ ​report​ ​event​ ​outcomes​ ​to​ ​resolve​ ​prediction​ ​markets.​ ​$PAY​ ​holders

Confidential Page​ ​3
get​ ​paid​ ​as​ ​consumers​ ​transact​ ​using​ ​TenX​​ ​cards.​ ​A​ ​dividend-like​ ​mechanism​ ​reduces​ ​token​ ​velocity
because,​ ​as​ ​the​ ​market​ ​price​ ​of​ ​an​ ​asset​ ​decreases,​ ​its​ ​yield​ ​increases.​ ​If​ ​the​ ​yield​ ​becomes​ ​too​ ​high,
market​ ​participants​ ​seeking​ ​yield​ ​will​ ​hold​ ​the​ ​asset,​ ​lowering​ ​velocity.

Also,​ ​a​ ​dividend​ ​stream​ ​makes​ ​a​ ​token​ ​easier​ ​to​ ​using​ ​a​ ​traditional​ d
​ iscounted​ ​cash​ ​flow​​ ​(DCF)​ ​model.
Side​ ​note:​ ​check​ ​out​ ​our​ ​recent​ ​Augur​ ​analysis​ ​and​ ​valuation​.

2)​ ​The​ ​second​ ​way​ ​a​ ​protocol​ ​can​ ​reduce​ ​velocity​ ​of​ ​its​ ​asset​ ​is​ ​to​ ​give​ ​token​ ​holder​ ​influence​ ​over​ ​the
future​ ​of​ ​the​ ​protocol.​ ​This​ ​is​ ​typically​ ​handled​ ​via​ ​a​ ​one-token:one-vote​ ​mechanism.​ ​The​ ​theory​ ​is​ ​that
stakeholders​ ​in​ ​the​ ​ecosystem​ ​will​ ​be​ ​unwilling​ ​to​ ​sell​ ​their​ ​coins​ ​because​ ​they​ ​have​ ​a​ ​vested​ ​interest​ ​in
the​ ​future​ ​of​ ​the​ ​ecosystem​ ​and​ ​want​ ​to​ ​have​ ​some​ ​influence​ ​over​ ​the​ ​future​ ​direction​ ​of​ ​the​ ​protocol.
This​ ​sounds​ ​nice​ ​in​ ​theory,​ ​but​ ​I’m​ ​dubious​ ​of​ ​this​ ​claim​ ​in​ ​practice.

Token-based​ ​voting​ ​is​ ​appealing​ ​to​ ​many​ ​because​ ​it’s​ ​analogous​ ​to​ ​democracy.​ ​But​ ​voting​ ​on​ ​protocol
governance​ ​is​ ​unlike​ ​voting​ ​on​ ​elected​ ​officials​ ​in​ ​one​ ​important​ ​way.​ ​It’s​ ​easy​ ​to​ ​sell​ ​cryptoassets​ ​and
move​ ​wealth​ ​elsewhere.​ ​You​ ​can’t​ ​easily​ ​move​ ​in​ ​and​ ​out​ ​of​ ​a​ ​given​ ​democracy​ ​(possible,​ ​but​ ​high
switching​ ​costs).​ ​If​ ​you​ ​disagree​ ​with​ ​the​ ​future​ ​direction​ ​of​ ​a​ ​protocol,​ ​you​ ​always​ ​have​ ​the​ ​option​ ​to
leave​ ​that​ ​“democracy”​ ​at​ ​will​ ​for​ ​near​ ​$0​ ​cost.

Moreover,​ ​for​ ​a​ ​protocol​ ​that​ ​becomes​ ​even​ ​moderately​ ​successful​ ​-​ ​let’s​ ​assume​ ​a​ ​terminal​ ​network
value​ ​of​ ​$200M​ ​-​ ​a​ ​token​ ​holder​ ​would​ ​have​ ​to​ ​hold​ ​$5-10M​ ​worth​ ​of​ ​tokens​ ​before​ ​her​ ​vote​ ​would
move​ ​the​ ​needle.​ ​Even​ ​then,​ ​the​ ​movement​ ​would​ ​be​ ​small.​ ​The​ ​ability​ ​of​ ​any​ ​given​ ​token​ ​holder
moving​ ​the​ ​needle​ ​decreases​ ​as​ ​network​ ​value​ ​increases.

3)​ ​A​ ​third​ ​mechanism​ ​to​ ​reduce​ ​velocity​ ​is​ ​to​ ​build​ ​staking​ ​functions​ ​into​ ​the​ ​protocol​ ​that​ ​literally​ ​lock
up​ ​the​ ​asset.​ ​This​ ​includes​ ​proof-of-stake​ ​based​ ​staking,​ ​although​ ​this​ ​alone​ ​shouldn’t​ ​reduce​ ​velocity
too​ ​much.​ ​But​ ​extended​ ​staking​ ​mechanisms​ ​can​ ​reduce​ ​velocity​ ​further.​ ​For​ ​example,​ N ​ umeraire
requires​ ​data​ ​scientists​ ​to​ ​stake​ ​their​ ​NMR​ ​tokens​ ​for​ ​30​ ​days​ ​to​ ​compete​ ​for​ ​prize​ ​pools.​ ​This​ ​staking
by​ ​definition​ ​reduces​ ​velocity​ ​since​ ​the​ ​tokens​ ​are​ ​illiquid​ ​while​ ​staked.​ ​Moreover,​ ​in​ ​the​ ​case​ ​of
Numeraire​ ​specifically,​ ​the​ ​amount​ ​of​ ​NMR​ ​staked​ ​is​ ​a​ ​function​ ​of​ ​the​ ​data​ ​scientist’s​ ​conviction​ ​in
herself​ ​and​ ​amount​ ​of​ ​money​ ​the​ ​data​ ​scientist​ ​believes​ ​she​ ​can​ ​win.

4)​ ​A​ ​fourth​ ​mechanism​ ​is​ ​what​ ​I’ll​ ​call​ ​the​ ​“network​ ​utility​ ​expansion”​ ​mechanism.​ ​This​ ​applies​ ​to
decentralized​ ​cloud​ ​protocols​ ​such​ ​as​ ​Golem,​ ​STORJ,​ ​Sia,​ ​Filecoin,​ ​and​ ​Maidsafe.

Since​ ​token​ ​supply​ ​is​ ​fixed,​ ​each​ ​token​ ​can​ ​purchase​ ​a​ ​defined​ ​percentage​ ​of​ ​total​ ​capacity​ ​of​ ​a
network.​ ​Overtime,​ ​if​ ​a​ ​protocol​ ​is​ ​successful,​ ​the​ ​capacity​ ​of​ ​these​ ​networks​ ​will​ ​grow​ ​as​ ​more​ ​people
seek​ ​profits​ ​and​ ​rent​ ​out​ ​underutilized​ ​assets.​ ​Therefore,​ ​each​ ​token​ ​will​ ​be​ ​able​ ​to​ ​purchase​ ​a​ ​larger
absolute​ ​amount​ ​of​ ​total​ ​compute​ ​power​ ​/​ ​disk​ ​space.​ ​Although​ ​price​ ​per​ ​CPU​ ​cycle​ ​and​ ​KB​ ​are​ ​always
falling,​ ​markets​ ​have​ ​generally​ ​shown​ ​an​ ​appetite​ ​for​ ​ever​ ​increasing​ ​amounts​ ​of​ ​both.​ ​It’s​ ​therefore
likely​ ​that​ ​those​ ​who​ ​own​ ​access​ ​to​ ​these​ ​networks​ ​will​ ​hold​ ​their​ ​tokens,​ ​reducing​ ​velocity.

Confidential Page​ ​4
5)​ ​A​ ​fifth​ ​mechanism​ ​is​ ​to​ ​become​ ​a​ ​crypto​currency​ ​(this​ ​is​ ​a​ ​similar,​ ​but​ ​different​ ​lens​ ​on​ ​#4).​ ​This​ ​is
non​ ​trivial.​ ​If​ ​people​ ​start​ ​holding​ ​a​ ​currency​ ​so​ ​they​ ​can​ ​purchase​ ​goods​ ​and​ ​services​ ​at​ ​a​ ​later​ ​time,
velocity​ ​is​ ​by​ ​definition​ ​reduced.

Today​ ​Bitcoin​ ​is​ ​the​ ​reserve​ ​currency​ ​in​ ​crypto​ ​land.​ ​But​ ​other​ ​cryptocurrencies​ ​are​ ​emerging.​ ​For
example,​ ​let’s​ ​examine​ ​distributed​ ​VPNs​ ​like​ M ​ ysterium​​ ​and​ ​Mesh​ ​Labs​ ​(no​ ​website​ ​yet).

Mysterium​ ​is​ ​a​ ​distributed​ ​VPN.​ ​The​ ​basic​ ​problem​ ​Mysterium​ ​solves​ ​is​ ​one​ ​of​ ​trust.​ ​Centralized​ ​VPN
services​ ​are​ ​not​ ​safe​.​ ​As​ ​a​ ​user,​ ​you​ ​have​ ​no​ ​idea​ ​what​ ​the​ ​centralized​ ​VPN​ ​is​ ​doing.​ ​You​ ​could​ ​setup
your​ ​own​ ​VPN​ ​on​ ​AWS,​ ​but​ ​this​ ​is​ ​not​ ​something​ ​most​ ​users​ ​can​ ​do.​ ​Mysterium​ ​aims​ ​to​ ​solve​ ​this
problem​ ​by​ ​decentralizing​ ​the​ ​VPN​ ​host​ ​across​ ​many​ ​computers.​ ​Tor​​ ​has​ ​done​ ​this​ ​for​ ​years,​ ​but​ ​Tor
relies​ ​on​ ​altruistic​ ​hosts,​ ​which​ ​limits​ ​the​ ​number​ ​of​ ​hosts​ ​and​ ​reduces​ ​speed​ ​for​ ​the​ ​end​ ​user.
Mysterium​ ​is​ ​effectively​ ​“Tor​ ​with​ ​a​ ​token.”

The​ ​kinds​ ​of​ ​users​ ​who​ ​would​ ​act​ ​as​ ​hosts​ ​on​ ​the​ ​Mysterium​ ​Network​ ​are​ ​also​ ​the​ ​kinds​ ​of​ ​people​ ​who
would​ ​want​ ​to​ ​use​ ​Mysterium​ ​as​ ​they​ ​traverse​ ​the​ ​Internet.​ ​As​ ​Mysterium​ ​hosts​ ​accrue​ ​MYST​ ​tokens,
they’re​ ​unlikely​ ​to​ ​sell​ ​them​ ​since​ ​they’re​ ​going​ ​to​ ​use​ ​them​ ​again​ ​in​ ​the​ ​near​ ​future.​ ​This​ ​reduces
MYST​ ​velocity.

Conclusion

Velocity​ ​is​ ​one​ ​of​ ​the​ ​key​ ​levers​ ​that​ ​will​ ​impact​ ​long​ ​term,​ ​non-speculative​ ​value.​ ​Most​ ​app​ ​coins​ ​like
Aventus​ ​don’t​ ​provide​ ​a​ ​compelling​ ​reason​ ​for​ ​coin​ ​holders​ ​to​ ​hold​ ​the​ ​token​ ​long​ ​term.​ ​Absent
speculation,​ ​assets​ ​with​ ​high​ ​velocity​ ​will​ ​struggle​ ​to​ ​maintain​ ​long​ ​term​ ​price​ ​appreciation.​ ​Protocol
designers​ ​will​ ​be​ ​well​ ​served​ ​to​ ​incorporate​ ​mechanisms​ ​into​ ​their​ ​protocols​ ​that​ ​encourage​ ​holding,​ ​not
just​ ​usage.

Confidential Page​ ​5

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