Safal Niveshak Stock Analysis Excel (Ver. 4.

www.safalniveshak.com

HOW TO USE THIS SPREADSHEET

Step 1 - This spreadsheet works only on Screener.in. The first step is to create a free account here - https://www.screener.in/re
Step 2 - After creating your account, while you are logged in to Screener.in website, visit this page - https://www.screener.in/ex
Step 3 - Visit the home page of Screener.in and choose a company of your choice. Once you do that, you will see details of you
financial statement table called "Quarterly Results" and click on "View Consolidated". Now, all data you see for this company wi

Step 4 - Scroll back to the top of the page, and you will see a button "Export to Excel" on the right side. Click the button and the
the exact format as "Safal Niveshak's Stock Analysis Excel Ver. 4.0". Now onwards, any excel you export for any company on S
Step 5 - Email me your love and testimonial for helping you with this excel. :-)

IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS
1. Ensure that the company whose data you are downloading has numbers at least starting from FY08 (March 2008). This is be
from, say, FY10, you will see incorrect data for FY08 and FY09 (which will be of Hero Motocorp on whose financials I have crea

2. All financial data of your chosen company will be automatically updated in the sheet you download, except "Cash and Bank"
figures, which you must update manually from the company's annual reports. Don’t forget to make these changes as these num
3. You may update the sheet and add your own analysis, formulae etc. and then upload again to Screener.in site using the Step
"Data Sheet" because this will cause errors in your future downloads.
4. DON’T touch any cell except the black ones, where you are required to update the numbers manually from Annual Reports (j
the growth assumptions etc.
4. I have added Comments and Instructions wherever necessary so as to explain the concepts. Read those carefully before wo
5. This sheet is not a replacement of the work required to read annual reports as part of the analysis process. So please do tha
some discrepancy in numbers (though rare), but you will know this only when you read annual reports.
6. I could not find a bug/errors in this spreadsheet, but if you notice some, please email me at - [email protected] - and
7. I will keep on updating the sheet from time to time and will update the same on the website. I invite you to share your feedba
together.
8. This excel won't work for banking and financial services companies.

Note: All data is sourced from Screener.in

 Safal Niveshak Stock Warning! Excel can be a wonder
a deadly weapon if you wish to
Analysis Excel (Ver. 4.0) careful of what you are getting
garbage out. And if you need the
a given stock, you mu
www.safalniveshak.com
Basic Company Details
Parameters Details
Company APOLLO TYRES LTD
Current Stock Price (Rs) 227 Remember! Focus on decisions
Face Value (Rs) 1.0 evidence
No. of Shares (Crore) 57.2
Market Capitalization (Rs Crore) 12,974

Key Financials - Trend

Parameters Details
Sales Growth (9-Year CAGR) 12.9% Please! It's your money. Please
cause you to lose it all! I've desi
Profit Before Tax Growth (9-Year CAGR) 18.9% but you alone are responsible f
Net Profit Growth (8-Year CAGR) 20.1% ever after! I am not a sadist w
Average Debt/Equity (5-Years, x) 0.4 analyzing companies on your
instead of a map, for you can c
Average Return on Equity (5-Years) 16.2%
A
Average P/E (5-Years, x) 11.7
Latest P/E (x) 15.3
 Excel can be a wonderful tool to analyze the past. But it can be
y weapon if you wish to use it to predict the future! So be very
of what you are getting into. Here, garbage in will always equal
out. And if you need the excel to tell you what you must do with
a given stock, you must not use this tool anyways.

er! Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming

evidence. Calculate. Pray!

It's your money. Please don't blame me if results of this excel

u to lose it all! I've designed this excel to aid your own thinking,
alone are responsible for your actions. I want to live peacefully
fter! I am not a sadist who wants you to do the hard work by
ng companies on your own. But I'd rather give you a compass
of a map, for you can confuse map with territory and lose it all.
All the best!
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Parameter

Consumer monopoly or commodity?

Understand how business works

Is the company conservatively financed?

Are earnings strong and do they show an

upward trend?

Does the company stick with what it

knows?

Has the company been buying back its

shares?

Have retained earnings been invested

well?

Is the company’s return on equity above

average?

Is the company free to adjust prices to

inflation?
Does the company need to constantly
reinvest in capital?

Conclusion

Never Forget
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Explanation

Seek out companies that have no or less competition, either due to a patent or brand name or similar intangible that
makes the product unique. Such companies will typically have high gross and operating profit margins because of their
unique niche. However, don't just go on margins as high margins may simply highlight companies within industries with
traditionally high margins. Thus, look for companies with gross, operating and net profit margins above industry norms.
Also look for strong growth in earnings and high return on equity in the past.

Try to invest in industries where you possess some specialized knowledge (where you work) or can more effectively
judge a company, its industry, and its competitive environment (simple products you consume). While it is difficult to
construct a quantitative filter, you should be able to identify areas of interest. You should "only" consider analyzing
those companies that operate in areas that you can clearly grasp - your circle of competence. Of course you can
increase the size of the circle, but only over time by learning about new industries. More important than the size of the
circle is to know its boundaries.

Seeks out companies with conservative financing, which equates to a simple, safe balance sheet. Such companies
tend to have strong cash flows, with little need for long-term debt. Look for low debt to equity or low debt-burden ratios.
Also seek companies that have history of consistently generating positive free cash flows.

Rising earnings serve as a good catalyst for stock prices. So seek companies with strong, consistent, and expanding
earnings (profits). Seek companies with 5/10 year earnings per share growth greater than 25% (along with safe
balance sheets). To help indicate that earnings growth is still strong, look for companies where the last 3-years
earnings growth rate is higher than the last 10-years growth rate. More important than the rate of growth is the
consistency in such growth. So exclude companies with volatile earnings growth in the past, even if the "average"
growth has been high.

Like you should stock to your circle of competence, a company should invest its capital only in those businesses within
its circle of competence. This is a difficult factor to screen for on a quantitative level. Before investing in a company,
look at the company’s past pattern of acquisitions and new directions. They should fit within the primary range of
operations for the firm. Be cautious of companies that have been very aggressive in acquisitions in the past.

Buffett prefers that firms reinvest their earnings within the company, provided that profitable opportunities exist. When
companies have excess cash flow, Buffett favours shareholder-enhancing maneuvers such as share buybacks. While
we do not screen for this factor, a follow-up examination of a company would reveal if it has a share buyback plan in
place.

Seek companies where earnings have risen as retained earnings (earnings after paying dividends) have been
employed profitably. A great way to screen for such companies is by looking at those that have had consistent
earnings and strong return on equity in the past.

Consider it a positive sign when a company is able to earn above-average (better than competitors) returns on equity
without employing much debt. Average return on equity for Indian companies over the last 10 years is approximately
16%. Thus, seek companies that earn at least this much (16%) or more than this. Again, consistency is the key here.

That's what is called "pricing power". Companies with moat (as seen from other screening metrics as suggested above
(like high ROE, high grow margins, low debt etc.) are able to adjust prices to inflation without the risk of losing
significant volume sales.
Companies that consistently need capital to grow their sales and profits are like bank savings account, and thus bad
for an investor's long term portfolio. Seek companies that don't need high capital investments consistently. Retained
earnings must first go toward maintaining current operations at competitive levels, so the lower the amount needed to
maintain current operations, the better. Here, more than just an absolute assessment, a comparison against
competitors will help a lot. Seek companies that consistently generate positive and rising free cash flows.

Sensible investing is always about using “folly and discipline” - the discipline to identify excellent businesses, and wait
for the folly of the market to drive down the value of these businesses to attractive levels. You will have little trouble
understanding this philosophy. However, its successful implementation is dependent upon your dedication to learn and
follow the principles, and apply them to pick stocks successfully.

Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.

 Balance Sheet
APOLLO TYRES LTD
Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
Equity Share Capital 50 50 50 50 50 50 51 51 51 57
Reserves 1,296 1,914 2,359 2,779 3,337 4,510 4,988 6,551 7,236 9,716
Borrowings 891 1,707 2,480 2,872 2,651 1,613 1,106 1,547 3,437 4,661
Other Liabilities 919 1,913 2,441 2,724 2,549 2,893 2,534 3,550 4,658 5,910
Total 3,156 5,585 7,331 8,426 8,586 9,067 8,680 11,699 15,381 20,345

Net Block 1,425 2,560 3,519 4,158 4,313 4,593 4,382 5,214 6,692 10,403
Capital Work in Progress 281 536 358 331 320 46 218 994 2,915 2,304
Investments 5 6 11 16 55 64 101 506 396 1,343
Other Assets 1,445 2,483 3,443 3,922 3,899 4,364 3,979 4,985 5,379 6,295
Total 3,156 5,585 7,331 8,426 8,586 9,067 8,680 11,699 15,381 20,345

Working Capital 526 570 1,001 1,198 1,350 1,471 1,444 1,435 721 385
Debtors 225 787 952 1,146 1,020 1,043 959 1,084 1,128 1,435
Inventory 630 993 1,754 1,995 2,031 2,066 1,778 1,939 2,646 2,945
Cash & Bank** 4,735 3,367 3,190 3,393 2,605 3,546 4,739 5,829
** Manually enter this number; Convert to Rs Crore if not already done in the Annual Reports; Use Cash+Bank+Current Investments from Consolidated Balance Sheet in Annual Reports

Debtor Days 16 35 39 34 29 28 27 33 31 35
Inventory Turnover 8 8 5 6 6 6 7 6 5 5
Fixed Asset Turnover 3.5 3.2 2.5 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.3 2.0 1.4
Debt/Equity 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5
Return on Equity 10% 33% 18% 15% 18% 22% 19% 17% 15% 7%
Return on Capital Employed 15% 29% 15% 15% 20% 25% 25% 21% 14% 8%
 Profit & Loss Account / Income Statement
APOLLO TYRES LTD
Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Trailing
Sales 4,984 8,121 8,868 12,153 12,799 13,412 12,815 11,849 13,180 14,841 17,295
% Growth YOY 63% 9% 37% 5% 5% -4% -8% 11% 13%
Expenses 4,561 6,936 7,895 10,976 11,328 11,524 10,794 9,843 11,313 13,175 15,257
Material Cost (% of Sales) 68% 54% 65% 68% 63% 58% 55% 50% 54% 58% Check for wide fluctuations in key
Power and Fuel 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% expense items. For manufacturing
Other Mfr. Exp 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 3% 4% 4% firms, check their material costs etc. For
Employee Cost 8% 13% 13% 11% 11% 12% 13% 13% 15% 15% services firms, look at employee costs.
Selling and Admin Cost 8% 9% 9% 7% 8% 8% 10% 12% 13% 12%
Operating Profit 423 1,185 972 1,177 1,471 1,888 2,022 2,006 1,867 1,666 2,038
Operating Profit Margin 8% 15% 11% 10% 11% 14% 16% 17% 14% 11% 12%
Other Income 31 117 51 2 107 48 -114 113 148 117 30
Other Income as % of Sales 0.6% 1.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% -0.9% 1.0% 1.1% 0.8% 0.2%
Depreciation 129 254 272 326 397 411 388 427 462 593 758
Interest 112 134 204 297 323 293 189 101 118 177 185
Interest Coverage(Times) 3 8 4 3 4 5 8 17 13 7 7
Profit before tax (PBT) 213 914 547 556 859 1,232 1,331 1,591 1,436 1,012 1,124
% Growth YOY 328% -40% 2% 54% 43% 8% 20% -10% -29%
PBT Margin 4% 11% 6% 5% 7% 9% 10% 13% 11% 7% 7%
Tax 74 261 106 144 245 227 353 468 337 288 278
Net profit 139 653 441 412 614 1,005 978 1,123 1,099 724 846
% Growth YOY 370% -33% -7% 49% 64% -3% 15% -2% -34%
Net Profit Margin 3% 8% 5% 3% 5% 7% 8% 9% 8% 5% 5%
EPS 2.8 13.0 8.7 8.2 12.2 19.9 19.2 22.1 21.6 12.7 14.8
% Growth YOY 370% -33% -7% 49% 64% -4% 15% -2% -41%
Price to earning 7.6 5.7 7.9 10.8 7.2 8.3 9.3 7.6 10.6 22.9 15.3
Price 21 74 69 88 87 166 178 168 228 290 227
Dividend Payout 16.3% 5.8% 5.7% 6.1% 4.1% 3.8% 10.4% 9.1% 13.9% 23.7%
Market Cap 1,062 3,751 3,484 4,432 4,399 8,364 9,063 8,536 11,607 16,599
Retained Earnings 116 616 416 387 589 967 876 1,021 946 552
Buffett's $1 Test 2.4

TRENDS: 10 YEARS 7 YEARS 5 YEARS 3 YEARS

Sales Growth 12.9% 7.6% 3.0% 5.0%
PBT Growth 18.9% 9.2% 3.3% -8.7%
PBT Margin 8.4% 8.9% 10.1% 10.4%
Price to Earning 9.8 10.9 11.7 13.7

Check for long term vs short term trends here. Check if the growth over
past 3 or 5 years has slowed down / improved compared to long term (7
to 10 years) growth numbers.
 Cash Flow Statement
APOLLO TYRES LTD
Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Total
Cash from Operating Activity (CFO) 480 1,312 416 752 1,275 1,645 1,412 2,123 902 1,720 12,038
% Growth YoY 173% -68% 81% 70% 29% -14% 50% -57% 91%
Cash from Investing Activity -470 -1,245 -1,088 -807 -599 -119 -796 -2,226 -3,368 -3,891 -14,608
Cash from Financing Activity 67 -80 516 30 -505 -1,208 -684 -255 1,895 2,321 2,097
Net Cash Flow 77 -13 -156 -25 171 319 -68 -358 -571 150 -473
CFO/Sales 10% 16% 5% 6% 10% 12% 11% 18% 7% 12%
CFO/Net Profit 345% 201% 94% 182% 208% 164% 144% 189% 82% 238%
Capex** 315 212 364 565 607 937 1,156 1,638 1,238 824
FCF 165 1,101 52 187 668 708 256 485 -336 896 4,182
Average FCF (3 Years) 348
FCF Growth YoY 567% -95% 258% 258% 6% -64% 89% -169% -367%
FCF/Sales 3% 14% 1% 2% 5% 5% 2% 4% -3% 6%
FCF/Net Profit 119% 169% 12% 46% 109% 70% 26% 43% -31% 124%

** Manually enter this number;

Convert to Rs Crore if not already
done in the Annual Reports; Use
"Capital expenditure" number
shown under "Cash Flow from
Investing Activities" segment of
Consolidated Cash Flow Statement
available in the Annual Reports
 Key Ratios
APOLLO TYRES LTD
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Sales Growth 62.9% 9.2% 37.1% 5.3% 4.8% -4.4% -7.5% 11.2%
PBT Growth 328.3% -40.1% 1.7% 54.3% 43.5% 8.0% 19.5% -9.8%
Net Profit Growth 369.5% -32.5% -6.5% 48.9% 63.7% -2.7% 14.9% -2.1%
Dividend Growth 66.7% -33.4% 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 169.3% 0.0% 50.0%
Operating Cash Flow Growth 173.4% -68.3% 80.6% 69.6% 29.0% -14.2% 50.3% -57.5%
Free Cash Flow Growth 567.4% -95.3% 257.8% 257.9% 6.0% -63.9% 89.3% ###

Operating Margin 8.5% 14.6% 11.0% 9.7% 11.5% 14.1% 15.8% 16.9% 14.2%
PBT Margin 4.3% 11.3% 6.2% 4.6% 6.7% 9.2% 10.4% 13.4% 10.9%
Net Margin 2.8% 8.0% 5.0% 3.4% 4.8% 7.5% 7.6% 9.5% 8.3%

Debtor Days 16.5 35.4 39.2 34.4 29.1 28.4 27.3 33.4 31.2
Inventory Turnover 7.9 8.2 5.1 6.1 6.3 6.5 7.2 6.1 5.0
Fixed Asset Turnover 3.5 3.2 2.5 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.3 2.0
Debt/Equity 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.5
Debt/Assets 28.2% 30.6% 33.8% 34.1% 30.9% 17.8% 12.7% 13.2% 22.3%
Interest Coverage (Times) 2.9 7.8 3.7 2.9 3.7 5.2 8.0 16.7 13.2
Return on Equity 10.3% 33.3% 18.3% 14.6% 18.1% 22.0% 19.4% 17.0% 15.1%
Return on Capital Employed 14.5% 28.6% 15.4% 15.0% 19.6% 24.7% 24.7% 20.8% 14.5%
Free Cash Flow (Rs Cr) 165 1,101 52 187 668 708 256 485 -336
Mar/18
12.6%
-29.5%
-34.1%
12.4%
90.6%
###

11.2%
6.8%
4.9%

35.3
5.0
1.4
0.5
22.9%
6.7
7.4%
8.2%
896
What to look for?
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher isn't always better, esp. when the company is generating high ROE, which means the management is allocating capital
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency

Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry

Lower/reducing is better. Compare with industry peer(s)

Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Nil / lower than 0.5 / reducing is better
Lower is better
Look for number > 5
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for positive and rising numbers. If the company consistently generates negative FCF over say 10 years, avoid it.
20% Profit Margin Capital Alloc
35%
Check for a rising trend and
30% Numbers > 20% long term a
15% 25% has zero/marginal debt. Com
20%
10%
15%
5% 10%
Check for a rising trend and/or consistency.
Compare with a close competitor
5%
0% 0%
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan

Operating Margin PBT Margin

Net Margin ROE

16,000
Revenue Revenue and Pro
400%
Check for a rising trend. Check for a ris
14,000 350% Compare grow
12,000 300%
250%
10,000 200%
8,000 150%
6,000 100%
4,000 50%
0%
2,000
-50% Jan/10 Jan/12
- -100%
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Revenue Growth
Net Profit Grow

2,000 Profit Over Time Operating and

2,500 Check
Check for a rising trend. for positive numbe
2,000 which are rising over tim
1,500
1,500
1,000 1,000
500
500
-
- -500 Jan/09 Jan/11 Ja
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17

PBT Net Profit Operating Cash Flo

Data for Charts (Please don't touch any number below)
Margins
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Operating Margin 8% 15% 11% 10% 11% 14% 16% 17% 14%
PBT Margin 4% 11% 6% 5% 7% 9% 10% 13% 11%
Net Margin 3% 8% 5% 3% 5% 7% 8% 9% 8%

Management Effectiveness
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
ROE 10% 33% 18% 15% 18% 22% 19% 17% 15%
ROCE 15% 29% 15% 15% 20% 25% 25% 21% 14%

Revenue & Profit Growth

Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18
Revenue Growth 63% 9% 37% 5% 5% -4% -8% 11% 13%
PBT Growth 328% -40% 2% 54% 43% 8% 20% -10% -29%
Net Profit Growth 370% -33% -7% 49% 64% -3% 15% -2% -34%

Revenue & Profit

Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Revenue 4,984 8,121 8,868 12,153 12,799 13,412 12,815 11,849 13,180
PBT 213 914 547 556 859 1,232 1,331 1,591 1,436
Net Profit 139 653 441 412 614 1,005 978 1,123 1,099

Cash Flows
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Operating Cash Flow 480 1,312 416 752 1,275 1,645 1,412 2,123 902
Free Cash Flow 165 1,101 52 187 668 708 256 485 -336
%
Capital Allocation Quality
Check for a rising trend and/or consistency.
% Numbers > 20% long term are good. Also check if the company
% has zero/marginal debt. Compare with a close competitor Note: Please ignore the dates
on the X-axis. The figures are
% for/as on the year ending date,
% which for most Indian
companies would be 31st
% March of that year
%
%
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17

ROE ROCE

% Revenue and Profit Growth (YoY)

Check for a rising trend and/or low volatility.
% Compare growth rates with a close competitor.
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
% Jan/10 Jan/12 Jan/14 Jan/16 Jan/18
%
Revenue Growth PBT Growth
Net Profit Growth

Operating and Free Cash Flow

0 Check for positive numbers and
0 which are rising over time.

0
0
0
-
0 Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17

Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow

Mar/18
11%
7%
5%

Mar/18
7%
8%

Mar/18
14,841
1,012
724

Mar/18
1,720
896
 Common Size P&L
Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Sales 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Raw Material Cost 68% 54% 65% 68% 63% 58% 55% 50% 54% 58%
Change in Inventory 0% -3% 5% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 1%
Power and Fuel 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3%
Other Mfr. Exp 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 3% 4% 4%
Employee Cost 8% 13% 13% 11% 11% 12% 13% 13% 15% 15%
Selling and Admin Cost 8% 9% 9% 7% 8% 8% 10% 12% 13% 12%
Other Expenses 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% -1% -1%
Operating Profit 8% 20% 0% 5% 11% 14% 17% 17% 11% 9%
Other Income 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% -1% 1% 1% 1%
Depreciation 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4%
Interest 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Profit Before Tax 4% 11% 6% 5% 7% 9% 10% 13% 11% 7%
Tax 1% 3% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 4% 3% 2%
Net Profit 3% 8% 5% 3% 5% 7% 8% 9% 8% 5%
Dividend Amount 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1%

Common Size Balance Sheet

Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Equity Share Capital 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Reserves 41% 34% 32% 33% 39% 50% 57% 56% 47% 48%
Borrowings 28% 31% 34% 34% 31% 18% 13% 13% 22% 23%
Other Liabilities 29% 34% 33% 32% 30% 32% 29% 30% 30% 29%
Total Liabilities 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Net Block 45% 46% 48% 49% 50% 51% 50% 45% 44% 51%
Capital Work in Progress 9% 10% 5% 4% 4% 1% 3% 8% 19% 11%
Investments 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 4% 3% 7%
Other Assets 46% 44% 47% 47% 45% 48% 46% 43% 35% 31%
Total Assets 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Receivables 7% 14% 13% 14% 12% 11% 11% 9% 7% 7%
Inventory 20% 18% 24% 24% 24% 23% 20% 17% 17% 14%
Cash & Bank 11% 6% 3% 2% 4% 7% 7% 5% 2% 3%
 A common-size financial statement is displays line
items as a percentage of one selected or common
figure. Creating common-size financial statements
makes it easier to analyze a company over time and
compare it with its peers. Using common-size
financial statements helps investors spot trends that
a raw financial statement may not uncover.
 Dhandho Intrinsic Value Calculation
Read the book - The Dhandho Investor by Mohnish Pabrai

APOLLO TYRES LTD APOLLO TYRES LTD

Dhandho IV - Lower Range Dhandho IV - Higher Range
Year FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth Year
0 Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 15% 0 Excess Cash (Latest)
1 FY18 400 357 Year 4-6 10% 1 FY18
2 FY19 460 367 Year 7-10 5% 2 FY19
3 FY20 529 377 Discount Rate 12% 3 FY20
4 FY21 582 370 4 FY21
5 FY22 641 363 Last 5-Years' CAGR 5 FY22
6 FY23 705 357 Sales 3% 6 FY23
7 FY24 740 335 PBT 3% 7 FY24
8 FY25 777 314 FCF 6% 8 FY25
9 FY26 816 294 9 FY26
10 FY27 856 276 10 FY27
10 8,565 2,758 10
Intrinsic Value 11,997 Intrinsic Value
Current Mkt. Cap. 12,974 Current Mkt. Cap.
Premium/(Discount) to IV 8% Premium/(Discount) to IV

Note: See explanation of this model here

P.S. In case of companies earning negative FCF, where this model will not work, you must use a normalized positive FCF as
starting number. This number is your assumption of FCF the business will earn in a normal year, without capex. Check the his
this business while arriving at your assumption, and use your judgment wisely without twisting the model to fit your version of
Calculation
by Mohnish Pabrai

APOLLO TYRES LTD

Dhandho IV - Higher Range
FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth
Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 20%
418 373 Year 4-6 15%
501 400 Year 7-10 10%
602 428 Discount Rate 12%
692 440
795 451
915 463
1,006 455
1,107 447
1,218 439
1,339 431
20,091 6,469
Intrinsic Value 16,625
Current Mkt. Cap. 12,974
Premium/(Discount) to IV -22%

ust use a normalized positive FCF as the

al year, without capex. Check the history of
sting the model to fit your version of reality.
 Ben Graham Formula (Low Range) Ben Graham Formula (High Range)
Company Name APOLLO TYRES LTD Company Name
Year Ended Mar/18 Year Ended

Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore) 985.7 Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore)
PE Ratio at 0% Growth 8.5 PE Ratio at 0% Growth
Long-Term Growth Rate 1.7 Long-Term Growth Rate

Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore) 11,684 Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore)
Current Market Cap (Rs Crore) 12,974 Current Market Cap (Rs Crore)

EXPLANATION
Ben Graham's Original Formula: Value = EPS x (8.5 + 2G)
Here, EPS is the trailing 12 month EPS, 8.5 is the P/E ratio of a stock with 0% growth and g is the growth rate for the next 7-10

Ben Graham's Revised Formula: Value = [EPS x (8.5 + 2G) x 4.4] / Y

Here, 4.4 is what Graham determined to be his minimum required rate of return. At the time of around 1962 when Graham was

Note: I have used Graham's original formula in the above calculations

m Formula (High Range)
APOLLO TYRES LTD
Mar/18

985.7
8.5
3.4

14,990
12,974

g is the growth rate for the next 7-10 years

e of around 1962 when Graham was publicizing his works, the risk free interest rate was 4.4% but to adjust to the present, we divide this nu
e present, we divide this number by today’s AAA corporate bond rate, represented by Y in the formula above.
 Dicounted Cash Flow Valuation
APOLLO TYRES LTD

Initial Cash Flow (Rs Cr) 348 7,924

12,974
Years 1-5 6-10 61%
FCF Growth Rate 15% 12%
Discount Rate 12%
Terminal Growth Rate 2%

Net Debt Level (Rs Cr) (1,168)

Year FCF Growth Present Value

1 400 15% 357
2 460 15% 367
3 529 15% 377
4 609 15% 387
5 700 15% 397
6 784 12% 397
7 878 12% 397
8 984 12% 397
9 1,102 12% 397
10 1,234 12% 397

Final Calculations
Terminal Year 1,259
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows 3,872
Terminal Value 4,052
Total PV of Cash Flows 7,924
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 12,974

Note: See explanation of DCF here

Valuation
D

DCF Value (As calculated in cell B29)

Current Market Cap
DCF as % of Current Mkt Cap
 Expected Returns Model
APOLLO TYRES LTD
Particulars Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15
Net Profit (Rs Crore) 139 653 440 410 613 1,005 978
Net Profit Margin 3% 8% 5% 3% 5% 7% 8%
Return on Equity 10% 33% 18% 15% 18% 22% 19%

Calculations (Enter values only in black cells)

Estimated CAGR in Net Profit over next 10 years 12%
Estimated Net Profit after 10 years (Rs Cr) 2,248
Current P/E (x) 17.9
Exit P/E in the 10th year from now (x, Estimated) 20.0
Esti. Market Cap (10th year from now; Rs Cr) 44,965
Cost of Capital/Discount Rate 12%
Discounted Value (Rs Cr) 14,478
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 12,974

Note: See explanation of this model here

el
Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 CAGR (9-Yr) CAGR (5-Yr)
1,123 1,099 724 20% 3%
9% 8% 5%
17% 15% 7%
 Intrinsic Value Range
APOLLO TYRES LTD
Lower Higher Remember! Give importance to a stock's valuations / fair v
Dhandho 11,997 16,625 only "after" you have answered in "Yes" to these two quest
Ben Graham 11,684 14,990 (1) Is this business simple to be understood? and (2) Ca
DCF 7,924 understand this business?
Expected Return 14,478
Don't try to quantify everything. In stock research, the less
Current Market Cap. 12,974 mathematical you are, the more simple, sensible, and usefu
be your analysis and results. Great analysis is generally "b
of-the-envelope".
Explanation: Considering the above
range, we can say that Hero Moto's IV Also, your calculated "fair value" will be proven wrong in
range is between Rs 55,000 crore to Rs future, so don't invest your savings just because you fall in
95,000 crore. It's a big range, but that's with it. Don't look for perfection. It is overrated. Focus o
fine (who is looking for precision?). Now, decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming eviden
if the current market cap is within this IV
range, it makes the stock
reasonably/attractively priced. If the
current market cap is higher then the
higher value of the range, it makes it
overpriced. But remember, these are just
numbers!
 importance to a stock's valuations / fair value
ave answered in "Yes" to these two questions -
ness simple to be understood? and (2) Can I
understand this business?

fy everything. In stock research, the less non-

are, the more simple, sensible, and useful will
and results. Great analysis is generally "back-
of-the-envelope".

lated "fair value" will be proven wrong in the

vest your savings just because you fall in love
ook for perfection. It is overrated. Focus on
outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.
APOLLO TYRES LTD
SCREENER.IN
Narration Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18
Sales 3,085 3,458 3,326 3,282 3,477 4,050 4,031 4,288 4,257 4,718
% Growth YOY 13% 17% 21% 31% 22% 16%
Expenses 2,646 2,958 2,954 3,007 3,112 3,554 3,516 3,760 3,790 4,191
Operating Profit 439 499 371 275 364 496 515 528 467 527
Other Income 39 37 49 7 20 46 44 41 -28 -27
Depreciation 106 113 137 126 138 151 177 184 196 201
Interest 23 28 25 34 40 41 48 43 46 49
Profit before tax 349 395 259 122 205 350 334 342 197 251
PBT Margin 11% 11% 8% 4% 6% 9% 8% 8% 5% 5%
% Growth YOY -41% -11% 29% 180% -4% -28%
Tax 89 99 30 34 65 105 84 90 51 53
Net profit 260 296 228 88 140 245 250 252 146 198
% Growth YOY -46% -17% 10% 185% 4% -19%
OPM 14% 14% 11% 8% 10% 12% 13% 12% 11% 11%
COMPANY NAME APOLLO TYRES LTD
LATEST VERSION 2.10 PLEASE DO NOT MAKE ANY CHA
CURRENT VERSION 2.10

META
Number of shares 57.20
Face Value 1
Current Price 226.8
Market Capitalization 12974.09

PROFIT & LOSS

Report Date Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Sales 4984.07 8120.74 8867.72 12153.29 12798.87 13411.98
Raw Material Cost 3411.67 4362.72 5795.86 8292.75 8041.01 7803.21
Change in Inventory 11.37 -218.06 473.71 255.75 44.11 31.14
Power and Fuel 171.72 238.53 258.9 333.27 361.09 378.52
Other Mfr. Exp 136.14 200.43 280.86 317.96 374.61 512.22
Employee Cost 414.86 1088.31 1134.12 1335.01 1471.38 1581.19
Selling and admin 410.01 727.39 810.3 888.97 1030.41 1132.07
Other Expenses 27.91 100.15 89.06 64.23 93.83 148.22
Other Income 30.54 117.42 50.9 1.92 107.07 48.1
Depreciation 128.51 254.23 271.94 325.6 396.56 410.85
Interest 111.78 134.33 204.17 296.7 322.52 293.01
Profit before tax 213.38 914.01 547.12 556.47 858.64 1231.93
Tax 74.23 260.66 106.32 144.35 244.83 226.87
Net profit 139.14 653.35 440.16 409.9 612.61 1005.06
Dividend Amount 22.68 37.81 25.2 25.2 25.2 37.81

Quarters
Report Date Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17
Sales 3084.91 3457.87 3325.62 3282.46 3476.66 4050.07
Expenses 2646.36 2958.38 2954.3 3007.17 3112.26 3553.69
Other Income 38.66 37.05 48.57 6.72 19.72 46.38
Depreciation 105.77 113.47 136.57 125.85 138.49 151.4
Interest 22.83 28.32 24.79 34.05 40.23 41.04
Profit before tax 348.61 394.75 258.53 122.11 205.4 350.32
Tax 89.09 99.05 30.29 33.82 65.22 105.03
Net profit 259.52 295.7 228.24 88.3 140.18 245.3
Operating Profit 438.55 499.49 371.32 275.29 364.4 496.38

BALANCE SHEET
Report Date Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Equity Share Capital 50.41 50.41 50.41 50.41 50.41 50.41
Reserves 1296.11 1914.29 2359 2779.24 3336.56 4510.32
Borrowings 890.72 1707.16 2480.22 2872.01 2650.74 1613.44
Other Liabilities 919.08 1913.47 2441.25 2724.39 2548.78 2893.07
Total 3156.32 5585.33 7330.88 8426.05 8586.49 9067.24
Net Block 1425.38 2560.04 3519.25 4157.59 4312.9 4593.31
Capital Work in Progress 281.41 536.04 357.78 330.55 319.87 46.48
Investments 4.75 5.85 11.18 15.82 54.58 63.72
Other Assets 1444.78 2483.4 3442.67 3922.09 3899.14 4363.73
Total 3156.32 5585.33 7330.88 8426.05 8586.49 9067.24
Receivables 224.74 786.9 951.66 1145.8 1019.65 1042.67
Inventory 630.21 992.88 1753.75 1995.47 2031.08 2066.42
Cash & Bank 362.09 348.98 190.89 173.04 334.78 654.05
No. of Equity Shares 504094770 504094770 504094770 504094770 504024770 504024770
New Bonus Shares
Face value 1 1 1 1 1 1

CASH FLOW:
Report Date Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Cash from Operating Activity 480.03 1312.47 416.31 751.76 1275.35 1645.46
Cash from Investing Activity -469.78 -1245.45 -1087.53 -806.63 -599.24 -118.68
Cash from Financing Activity 67.13 -80.13 515.52 30.25 -505.25 -1207.51
Net Cash Flow 77.38 -13.11 -155.7 -24.62 170.86 319.27

PRICE: 21.076667 74.404762 69.110526 87.915 87.27 165.95

DERIVED:
Adjusted Equity Shares in Cr 50.41 50.41 50.41 50.41 50.40 50.40
DO NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THIS SHEET

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

12815.43 11848.56 13180.04 14840.52
7012.06 5959.97 7125.7 8542.95
-63.36 5.18 235.64 147.45
351.35 329 326.72 379.16
483.89 407.99 511.8 588.37
1610.62 1570.79 1926.97 2156.65
1262.06 1457.81 1723.63 1768.6
10.51 122.29 -66.13 -113.46
-113.57 112.58 147.99 116.54
388.29 426.79 461.81 592.55
188.89 101.04 117.62 177.36
1330.83 1590.65 1435.55 1012.34
353.22 467.69 336.55 288.45
977.61 1122.96 1099 723.88
101.82 101.8 152.7 171.63

Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18

4031.33 4288.05 4257.38 4718.28
3516.13 3759.95 3790.14 4191.03
43.72 40.6 -27.68 -26.79
176.82 184.06 196.2 201.05
47.61 43.02 46.11 48.53
334.49 341.62 197.25 250.88
84.38 89.79 51.19 52.93
250.11 251.84 146.05 197.95
515.2 528.1 467.24 527.25

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

 50.91 50.9 50.9 57.21
4988.27 6550.59 7235.93 9716.35
1106.22 1546.67 3436.55 4661.15
2534.46 3550.39 4658.1 5909.79
8679.86 11698.55 15381.48 20344.5
4382.05 5213.61 6691.5 10403.08
218.21 993.64 2915.09 2304.07
100.72 505.95 396.19 1342.5
3978.88 4985.35 5378.7 6294.85
8679.86 11698.55 15381.48 20344.5
958.94 1084.35 1127.5 1435.03
1778.21 1939.09 2645.53 2945.35
594.59 594.2 336.92 599.19
509024770 509024770 509024770 572049980

1 1 1 1

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

1411.97 2122.5 902.27 1719.67
-796.19 -2225.94 -3367.71 -3890.83
-683.59 -254.66 1894.63 2320.88
-67.81 -358.11 -570.82 149.72

178.0475 167.702632 228.028947 290.169048

50.90 50.90 50.90 57.20

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