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StochasticModels 2011 Part 3

1. A continuous random variable is defined as having a cumulative distribution function F(x) that is continuous. The probability density function f(x) is the derivative of F(x) and satisfies properties such as being always nonnegative and having its integral over all x equal to 1. 2. For a continuous random variable X with density f(x), the probability of X being between values a and b is given by the integral of f(x) from a to b. This is equal to F(b)-F(a). 3. An exponential random variable has a probability density function of f(x) = λe^-λx for x ≥ 0 and parameter λ > 0

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
44 views

StochasticModels 2011 Part 3

1. A continuous random variable is defined as having a cumulative distribution function F(x) that is continuous. The probability density function f(x) is the derivative of F(x) and satisfies properties such as being always nonnegative and having its integral over all x equal to 1. 2. For a continuous random variable X with density f(x), the probability of X being between values a and b is given by the integral of f(x) from a to b. This is equal to F(b)-F(a). 3. An exponential random variable has a probability density function of f(x) = λe^-λx for x ≥ 0 and parameter λ > 0

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dan
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Continuous Random Variables

If the cumulative distribution function F (x) of


a random variable X is continuous, then X is
said to be a continuous random variable.

Most continuous random variables that we en-


counter will have distribution function F (x)
which has a derivative (except perhaps a finite
number of points). The function
dF (x)
f (x) =
dx
is called the probability density function of the
random variable X. We have
∫ x
F (x) = f (t) dt
−∞
and the following properties:
• f (t) ≥ 0
∫ ∞
• f (t) dt = 1
−∞
The function f (t) is called the probability density
function of the random variable X.
1
Example Consider


 0,
x<0
F (x) = x, 0 ≤ x ≤ 1 .

 1, x>1
This cumulative Distribution function possesses
a derivative at all points except at x = 0 and
x = 1. The corresponding density function
{
1, 0 ≤ x ≤ 1
f (x) = .
0, otherwise

For any a and b such that a < b,

P (a < X ≤ b) = P (X ≤ b) − P (X ≤ a)
∫ b ∫ a
= f (t) dt − f (t) dt
−∞ −∞
∫ b
= f (t) dt = F (b) − F (a).
a

2
We see that, for a continuous random variable,
probabilities do not change if strict and non-
strict inequalities are interchanged in events.
So, we have

P (a ≤ X ≤ b) = P (a < X ≤ b).

Example Consider the following density func-


tion:
{
kx(1 − x), 0 ≤ x ≤ 1
f (x) = .
0, otherwise
We have
∫ ∞ ∫ 1
1= f (x)dx = kx(1 − x)dx
−∞ 0
( ) 1
x2 x
3 k
=k − =
2 3 0 6
Hence, k = 6, and for instance
( ) ( ) ∫ 1
1 1 3 7
P X< =F = 6x(1 − x)dx =
3 3 0 27
3
In order to obtain an intuitive interpretation of
the density function, we observe that for a very
small ε
( a+ 2 ) ∫ ε
ε ε
P a− ≤X ≤a+ = ε
f (t) dt ≈ εf (a).
2 2 a− 2
So, εf (a) is approximately equal to the proba-
bility that the
( random variable
) takes a value in
the interval a − 2ε , a + 2ε , i.e. εf (a) is a mea-
sure of how likely it is that the random variable
will be near a.
On the other hand, it should be noted that the
values of the probability density function f (x)
are not probabilities, and thus it is perfectly
acceptable if f (x) > 1.

Example Consider a random variable X such


that a < X < b and which is equally likely to
take a value in any interval

(x − dx, x + dx) ⊂ (a, b),


where dx is a very small (infinitesimal) quantity.
4
Then, the condition “equally likely” leads to
the conclusion that the density function f (x)
is a constant on (a, b), say constant c. In other
words, {
c, if a < x < b
f (x) =
0, otherwise
According to the definition of density function
∫ b ∫ ∞
f (x)dx = f (x)dx = 1,
a −∞
on the other hand,
∫ b ∫ b
f (x)dx = c dx = c(b − a),
a a
and therefore,


 1
if a < x < b
f (x) =
 b−a
 0 otherwise
This is a uniform distribution with the (cumu-
lative) distribution function


 0 if x ≤ a

 x−a
F (x) = if a < x < b

 b−a

 1 if x ≥ b
5
Let X be a continuous random variable, having
the probability density function f (x) such that
∫ ∞
|x|f (x) dx < ∞,
−∞
then the expected value of X (often called
mean and denoted by µ) is defined by
∫ ∞
E[X] = xf (x) dx
−∞

Let X be a continuous random variable with


probability density function fX (t). Let Y =
g(X), where g is a differentiable function. For
simplicity we assume that g is strictly increas-
ing. Let FX (x) and FY (y) be the cumulative
distribution functions of X and Y , respectively.
Then the event {g(X) ≤ y} is the same as {X ≤
g −1(y)}, and therefore FY (y) = FX (g −1(y)).
We have
d d
fY (y) = FY (y) = FX (g −1(y))
dy dy
d −1
= fX (g −1(y)) g (y).
dy
6
Hence,
∫ ∞
E[Y ] = yfY (y) dy
−∞
∫ ∞
−1 d −1
= yfX (g (y)) g (y) dy.
−∞ dy
Now we make the change of variables x =
g −1(y) which gives y = g(x) and
d −1
dx = g (y) dy.
dy
Hence, ∫ ∞
E[g(X)] = g(x)fX (x) dx. (1)
−∞
If g is strictly decreasing function, then the
proof of (1) is similar.

The variance of a continuous random variable


X with expected value µ and density function
f (x) is
∫ ∞
V ar[X] = E[(X − µ)2] = (x − µ)2f (x) dx
−∞
To compute the variance, we can use
V ar[X] = E[X 2] − (E[X])2
7
Exponential Distribution

A continuous random variable having density


function
f (x) = λ e−λx, 0≤x<∞
for some λ > 0 is said to be an exponential ran-
dom variable with parameter λ. Its cumulative
distribution function is given by
∫ x ∫ x
F (x) = f (t)dt = λ e−λtdt = 1 − e−λx
0 0

Let X be an exponential random variable with


parameter λ. Integrating by parts,
∫ ∞ ∫ ∞
1
E[X] = xf (x)dx = xλe−λxdx = .
0 0 λ

Similarly,
1
V ar[X] = 2 .
λ

8
No-memory Property of the Exponential
Distribution

Let a > 0 and b > 0, and X be an exponential


random variable with parameter λ. Since for
any c > 0
∫ ∞
P (X > c) = λ e−λxdx = e−λc,
c
from the definition of conditional probability

P (X > a + b | X > a)

P ({X > a + b} ∩ {X > a}) P (X > a + b)


= =
P (X > a) P (X > a)

e−λ(a+b) −λb = P (X > b)


= = e
e−λa
Thus, if X is, for example, the life of some elec-
tronic component, then the memoryless prop-
erty means that, for any age a, the remaining
life distribution is the same as the original life
distribution.
9
In fact the memoryless property is a defining
property of the exponential distribution. Let X
be a continuous random variable that denotes
the lifetime of something that decays sponta-
neously, not as a result of the age. For exam-
ple, isotope carbon 14 decays into nitrogen 14
(this is used in carbon 14 dating). This can
be described by

P (X > x + y|X > y) = P (X > x).


Let F (x) be the cumulative distribution func-
tion of X, and let G(x) = P (X > x). Hence,

G(x) = 1 − F (x)
which is called the tail distribution, or some-
times just the tail of X. In our discussion,
G(x) is the probability to survive the age x
and therefore is called the survival function.
We have

P (X > x) = P (X > x + y|X > y)

10
P ({X > x + y} ∩ {X > y} P (X > x + y)
= = .
P (X > y) P (X > y)
Hence,

P (X > x + y) = P (X > x)P (X > y)


or equivalently

G(x + y) = G(x)G(y).
By subtracting G(y) and dividing by x,
G(x + y) − G(y) G(x) − 1
= G(y)
x x
G(x) − G(0)
= G(y) .
x
Now, taking the limit as x approaches zero,

G′(y) = G′(0)G(y),
and hence,

G(y) = CeG (0)y ,
where C is a constant.
11
Since G(0) = 1, C = 1. Furthermore, let f (x)
be the probability density function of X. Then,
d
G′(x) = (1 − F (x)) = −f (x)
dx
and therefore

G(y) = e−f (0)y


which gives

F (y) = 1 − G(y) = 1 − e−f (0)y .


Hence, X has exponential distribution.

12
Joint Distribution

Let X and Y be continuous random variables


on the same sample space. We also assume
the same probability measure. Then, the event
{X ≤ x and Y ≤ y } consists of all sample points
s ∈ S such that X(s) ≤ x and Y (s) ≤ y. Con-
sider a function f (x, y) such that
• f (x, y) ≥ 0
∫ ∞ ∫ ∞
• f (u, v) dv du = 1
−∞ −∞
and F (x, y) = P (X ≤ x, Y ≤ y)
∫ x ∫ y
= f (u, v) dv du
−∞ −∞
The function f (x, y) is called the joint
(compound) probability density function of X
and Y , and F (x, y) is called joint
cumulative distribution function of X and Y .

We have
∫ b∫ d
P (a < X < b, c < Y < d) = f (x, y) dy dx
a c
13
The intuition is the same as in the one-dimensional
case: f (x, y) is used to measure how likely the
pair X and Y is in the neighbourhood of the
point (x, y).

Example Consider random variables X and Y


with joint probability density function
{
1, 0 ≤ x ≤ 1 and 0 ≤ y ≤ 1
f (x, y) =
0, otherwise
Then, the probability that X > Y is
∫ ∞ ∫ x
P (X > Y ) = f (u, v) dv du
−∞ −∞
∫ 1∫ x
1
= dv du =
0 0 2

When y → ∞, the event {X ≤ x and Y ≤ y}


“approaches” the event {X ≤ x}. Since
∫ x ∫ ∞
FX (x) = f (u, y) dy du,
−∞ −∞
the marginal density
14
∫ ∞
fX (x) = f (x, y) dy.
−∞
Similarly
∫ ∞
fY (y) = f (x, y) dx.
−∞

We have
∫ ∞ ∫ ∞
E(X + Y ) = (x + y)f (x, y) dy dx
−∞ −∞
∫ ∞ ∫ ∞
= x fX (x) dx + y fY (y) dy
−∞ −∞

= E(X) + E(Y ).

15

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