StochasticModels 2011 Part 3
StochasticModels 2011 Part 3
P (a < X ≤ b) = P (X ≤ b) − P (X ≤ a)
∫ b ∫ a
= f (t) dt − f (t) dt
−∞ −∞
∫ b
= f (t) dt = F (b) − F (a).
a
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We see that, for a continuous random variable,
probabilities do not change if strict and non-
strict inequalities are interchanged in events.
So, we have
P (a ≤ X ≤ b) = P (a < X ≤ b).
Similarly,
1
V ar[X] = 2 .
λ
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No-memory Property of the Exponential
Distribution
P (X > a + b | X > a)
G(x) = 1 − F (x)
which is called the tail distribution, or some-
times just the tail of X. In our discussion,
G(x) is the probability to survive the age x
and therefore is called the survival function.
We have
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P ({X > x + y} ∩ {X > y} P (X > x + y)
= = .
P (X > y) P (X > y)
Hence,
G(x + y) = G(x)G(y).
By subtracting G(y) and dividing by x,
G(x + y) − G(y) G(x) − 1
= G(y)
x x
G(x) − G(0)
= G(y) .
x
Now, taking the limit as x approaches zero,
G′(y) = G′(0)G(y),
and hence,
′
G(y) = CeG (0)y ,
where C is a constant.
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Since G(0) = 1, C = 1. Furthermore, let f (x)
be the probability density function of X. Then,
d
G′(x) = (1 − F (x)) = −f (x)
dx
and therefore
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Joint Distribution
We have
∫ b∫ d
P (a < X < b, c < Y < d) = f (x, y) dy dx
a c
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The intuition is the same as in the one-dimensional
case: f (x, y) is used to measure how likely the
pair X and Y is in the neighbourhood of the
point (x, y).
We have
∫ ∞ ∫ ∞
E(X + Y ) = (x + y)f (x, y) dy dx
−∞ −∞
∫ ∞ ∫ ∞
= x fX (x) dx + y fY (y) dy
−∞ −∞
= E(X) + E(Y ).
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