WATER RESOURCES ENGINEERING
SUPPLY AND DEMAND GAP
ANALYSIS
Module 2
DANILO B. PULMA
College of Engineering Eastern
Visayas State University
Tacloban City
SUPPLY AND DEMAND GAP ANALYSIS
• Existing Situation
Present Facilities and State of Facilities
(include observed defects, operational requirements,
needed improvements for present situation, cash flow
problems)
- Maps (areas currently served, areas under proposed
project, probable ultimate service area)
- Water Users (domestic, commercial, industrial,
institutional and public faucet)
- Population (served)
- Statistical Information (% of population served)
- How Served (% metered, % unmetered, % Public
Faucets)
- Historical Data (metered water consumption, NRW,
Water production)
SUPPLY AND DEMAND GAP ANALYSIS
• Existing Situation
- Per Capita Consumption (historical data, evidence of
unsatisfied demands, consumption restricted by
inadequate water distribution capacity)
- Will connection increase if distribution capacity is
expanded?
- Historical dates of existing WSS (planning,
construction, abandonment, expansion – source,
intake, transmission, treatment, booster pumping
stations, distribution main/network, storage)
- Capacities and present conditions
- Existing surface water source data (catchment area,
rainfall, Water quality, river flow data, water rights,
watershed condition)
- Existing Groundwater (well & spring locations,
capacities, GW aquifer capacity, water quality
SUPPLY AND DEMAND GAP ANALYSIS
• Demand Projections
Population Projections
Water Consumption
Demand Variation (ADD, MDD, PHD)
Population Projections
(Geometrical Method Formula)
Pn = Po (1 + i)n
Where:
Pn = Design Population
Po = Present Population
i = Growth Rate
n = Design Period
Design Period
• Facilities designed to meet projected
demand usually 5 - 10 years hence.
• 5 yr period
• Lower initial cost but need for capex after 5
years
• 10 yr period
• Higher initial cost but no major capex needed
within the 10 yr design period
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Growth Rate/Annual Rate Increase
The analysis of ARI should be on city/municipal
to barangay level:
• Determine growth patterns/trends
• Take note of extraordinary increase or decrease and
reason for such. (zoning plan or a master development plan,
physical limits and or geographical barriers, possibility of
industrial development, proposed new arterial roads or
transportation facilities, proposed regional facilities –
universities, military base)
• Examine official historical population data
(1990,1995,2000,2005,2015)
Design Population Exercise
Brgy Population Growth Rate (GR) % Projected Population
2000 2007 2000 - 2007 2012
Brgy A 1,000 1,300 ? ?
Brgy B 2,000 2,300 ? ?
Brgy C 1,800 1,900 ? ?
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Design Population Exercise
Brgy Population Growth Rate (GR) % Projected Population
2000 2007 2000 - 2007 2012
Brgy A 1,000 1,300 3.82 1568
Brgy B 2,000 2,300 2.02 2542
Brgy C 1,800 1,900 0.78 1975
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Water Consumption Rate (Wc):
• Domestic Connection
Individual connection = 100 to 120 lpcd
Public Faucets = 30 to 60 lpcd
NRW = 20% to 25%
• Institutional Connection = 3 to 6 cumd
• Commercial Connection = 1 to 2 cumd
• Industrial Connection = 1 to 3 cumd
NOTE:
Level II system planner should assume that within 5
years, 90% of HHs served will be clamoring for
Individual house connections
Demand Variations
ADD = used in the design of basic water
facilities. Reservoir capacity is usually 25% of
ADD.
MDD = used in determining the transmission
main and pump capacity for a water source to be
acceptable.
PHD = used in determining the size of
distribution mains.
Peak Hour Demand)
Maximum Day Demand)
Average Day Demand)
Estimate of Water Demand
Wrqt =Water Requirement
Wrqt= Pn x Wc
• ADD = Wrqt / (1-NRW)
• MDD = 1.3 x ADD
• PHD = 2.0 x ADD (Population > 1000)
• PHD = 2.5 x ADD (Population > 600, <1000)
• PHD = 3.0 x ADD (Population < 600)
New Sys. Rehab Expansion
NRW =
15% 20% 25%
Non-revenue Water
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Water Demand Factors
• ADD = (Design Population x Water Consumption
Rate)/(1-NRW)
Figures multiplied to the ADD to determine other demand
variations for purposes of analyzing and designing the
water supply system.
• MDD = 1.2 to 1.5 (For Transmission Main and
Well yield)
• PHD = 2.0 to 3.0 (For design of distribution
pipes)
PRESENT SITUATION WATER DEMAND TABLE:
Total Population = 3,000
Population within
the service area = 2,700
Estimated served
population = 2,200
Number of persons
per household = 5
Level 2 Water Supply
Water Demand = 60 lpcd
NRW = 20%
Water Req’t = Population x
Water Demand
ADD = Water Req’t/(1-NRW)
MDD = 1.3xADD
PHD = 2.0xADD
PRESENT SITUATION WATER DEMAND TABLE:
Total Population = 3,000
Population within
the service area = 2,700
Estimated served
population = 2,200
Number of persons
per household = 5
Level 2 Water Supply
Water Demand = 60 lpcd
NRW = 20%
Water Req’t = Population x
Water Demand
ADD = Water Req’t/(1-NRW) Year 1 215 CMD 2.48 lps
Year 5 234 CMD 2.71 lps
MDD = 1.3xADD
Year 10 265 CMD 3.07 lps
PHD = 2.0xADD
END OF PRESENTATION
