Introduction to Probability Introduction to Probability

and Statistics and Statistics

Twelfth Edition Twelfth Edition

Robert J. Beaver • Barbara M. Beaver • William Mendenhall Chapter 2

Presentation designed and written by: Describing Data
Barbara M. Beaver
with Numerical Measures
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Describing Data with Numerical Measures of Center

Measures
• Graphical methods may not always be • A measure along the horizontal axis of
sufficient for describing data. the data distribution that locates the
• Numerical measures can be created for center of the distribution.
both populations and samples.
– A parameter is a numerical descriptive
measure calculated for a population.
– A statistic is a numerical descriptive
measure calculated for a sample.

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Arithmetic Mean or Average Example

• The mean of a set of measurements is •The set: 2, 9, 1, 5, 6
the sum of the measurements divided
∑ xi
= 2 + 9 + 11 + 5 + 6 = 33 = 6.6
by the total number of measurements.
x=
n 5 5
∑ xi
x=
n
If we were able to enumerate the whole
population, the population mean would be
where n = number of measurements
called µ (the Greek letter “mu”).
∑ xi = sum of all the measurements
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 Median Example
• The set: 2, 4, 9, 8, 6, 5, 3 n = 7
• The median of a set of measurements is
the middle measurement when the • Sort: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9
measurements are ranked from smallest • Position: .5(n + 1) = .5(7 + 1) = 4th
to largest. Median = 4th largest measurement

• The position of the median is • The set: 2, 4, 9, 8, 6, 5 n=6

.5(n + 1) • Sort: 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9
• Position: .5(n + 1) = .5(6 + 1) = 3.5th
once the measurements have been
Median = (5 + 6)/2 = 5.5 — average of the 3rd and 4th
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Mode Example
The number of quarts of milk purchased by
• The mode is the measurement which occurs 25 households:
most frequently. 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
• The set: 2, 4, 9, 8, 8, 5, 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5
• Mean?
– The mode is 8, which occurs twice
∑ xi 55
• The set: 2, 2, 9, 8, 8, 5, 3 x= = = 2 .2 10/25

n 25 8/25

Relative frequency
– There are two modes—8 and 2 (bimodal) • Median? 6/25

• The set: 2, 4, 9, 8, 5, 3 m=2 4/25

• Mode? (Highest peak) 2/25

– There is no mode (each value is unique).

mode = 2
0
0 1 2 3 4 5
Quarts

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Extreme Values Extreme Values

• The mean is more easily affected by
extremely large or small values than the Symmetric: Mean = Median
median.

MY APPLET Skewed right: Mean > Median

•The median is often used as a measure Skewed left: Mean < Median
of center when the distribution is
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2
 Measures of Variability The Range
• A measure along the horizontal axis of
the data distribution that describes the • The range, R, of a set of n measurements is
spread of the distribution from the the difference between the largest and
center. smallest measurements.
• Example: A botanist records the number of
petals on 5 flowers:
5, 12, 6, 8, 14
• The range is R = 14 – 5 = 9.
•Quick and easy, but only uses 2
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The Variance The Variance

• The variance is measure of variability • The variance of a population of N measurements
is the average of the squared deviations of the
that uses all the measurements. It measurements about their mean µ.
measures the average deviation of the ∑( xi − µ ) 2
measurements about their mean. σ2 =
N
• Flower petals: 5, 12, 6, 8, 14 • The variance of a sample of n measurements is the
sum of the squared deviations of the measurements
x=
45
=9 about their mean, divided by (n – 1).
5 ∑( xi − x ) 2
4 6 8 10 12 14 s2 =
n −1
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The Standard Deviation Two Ways to Calculate

• In calculating the variance, we squared all
the Sample Variance
Use the Definition Formula:
of the deviations, and in doing so changed x i xi − x ( xi − x )2
the scale of the measurements. 5 -4 16 ∑( xi − x ) 2
s2 =
• To return this measure of variability to the 12 3 9 n −1
original units of measure, we calculate the 6 -3 9
60
standard deviation, the positive square 8 -1 1 = = 15
root of the variance. 14 5 25
4

Population standard deviation : σ = σ 2 Sum 45 0 60

s = s 2 = 15 = 3.87
Sample standard deviation : s = s 2
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Two Ways to Calculate Some Notes MY APPLET

the Sample Variance

Use the Calculational Formula: • The value of s is ALWAYS positive.
xi x 2
• The larger the value of s2 or s, the larger
i
(∑ xi ) 2
∑ xi −
2
5 25 the variability of the data set.
s2 = n
12 144
n −1 • Why divide by n –1?
6 36
452 – The sample standard deviation s is
8 64 465 − often used to estimate the population
14 196 = 5 = 15
Sum 45 465 4 standard deviation σ. Dividing by n –1
gives us a better estimate of σ.
s = s 2 = 15 = 3.87
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Using Measures of Center and Using Measures of

Spread: Tchebysheff’s Theorem Center and Spread:
Given a number k greater than or equal to 1 and a The Empirical Rule
set of n measurements, at least 1-(1/k2) of the
measurement will lie within k standard deviations of Given a distribution of measurements
the mean. that is approximately mound-shaped:

9 Can be used for either samples ( x and s) or for a population (µ 9The interval µ ± σ contains approximately 68% of
and σ). the measurements.
9Important results:
9If k = 2, at least 1 – 1/22 = 3/4 of the measurements are 9The interval µ ± 2σ contains approximately 95%
within 2 standard deviations of the mean. of the measurements.
9If k = 3, at least 1 – 1/32 = 8/9 of the measurements are
within 3 standard deviations of the mean. 9The interval µ ± 3σ contains approximately 99.7%
of the measurements.
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Example k x ±ks Interval Proportion

in Interval
Tchebysheff Empirical
Rule
The ages of 50 tenured faculty at a 1 44.9 ±10.73 34.17 to 55.63 31/50 (.62) At least 0 ≈ .68
state university. 2 44.9 ±21.46 23.44 to 66.36 49/50 (.98) At least .75 ≈ .95
• 34 48 70 63 52 52 35 50 37 43 53 43 52 44 3 44.9 ±32.19 12.71 to 77.09 50/50 (1.00) At least .89 ≈ .997
• 42 31 36 48 43 26 58 62 49 34 48 53 39 45
• 34 59 34 66 40 59 36 41 35 36 62 34 38 28 •Yes. Tchebysheff’s
•Do the actual proportions in the three Theorem must be
• 43 50 30 43 32 44 58 53 intervals agree with those given by true for any data
14/50 Tchebysheff’s Theorem? set.
x = 44.9
12/50

•Do they agree with the Empirical •No. Not very well.
Relative frequency

10/50

8/50
Rule?
s = 10.73 6/50

4/50
•Why or why not?
•The data distribution is not very
2/50
mound-shaped, but skewed right.
0
25 33 41 49 57 65 73
Ages
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4
 Example Approximating s
The length of time for a worker to
complete a specified operation averages • From Tchebysheff’s Theorem and the
12.8 minutes with a standard deviation of 1.7 Empirical Rule, we know that
minutes. If the distribution of times is R ≈ 4-6 s
approximately mound-shaped, what proportion
of workers will take longer than 16.2 minutes to
• To approximate the standard deviation
complete the task? of a set of measurements, we can use:
95% between 9.4 and 16.2 s ≈ R/4
or s ≈ R / 6 for a largedata set.
47.5% between 12.8 and 16.2
.475 .475 .025 (50-47.5)% = 2.5% above 16.2
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Approximating s
The ages of 50 tenured faculty at a
Measures of Relative Standing
state university. • Where does one particular measurement
• 34 48 70 63 52 52 35 50 37 43 53 43 52 44
stand in relation to the other measurements
• 42 31 36 48 43 26 58 62 49 34 48 53 39 45
in the data set?
• 34 59 34 66 40 59 36 41 35 36 62 34 38 28 • How many standard deviations away from
• 43 50 30 43 32 44 58 53 the mean does the measurement lie? This is
measured by the z-score. s
Suppose s = 2.
R = 70 – 26 = 44
x−x 4
s ≈ R / 4 = 44 / 4 = 11 z - score = s s
s
x =5 x=9
Actual s = 10.73 x = 9 lies z =2 std dev from the mean.
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z-Scores
• From Tchebysheff’s Theorem and the Empirical Rule Measures of Relative Standing
– At least 3/4 and more likely 95% of measurements lie within
2 standard deviations of the mean.
• How many measurements lie below
– At least 8/9 and more likely 99.7% of measurements lie the measurement of interest? This is
within 3 standard deviations of the mean. measured by the pth percentile.
• z-scores between –2 and 2 are not unusual. z-scores should not
be more than 3 in absolute value. z-scores larger than 3 in
absolute value would indicate a possible outlier.
p% (100-p) %
x
Outlier Not unusual Outlier
z p-th percentile

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
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5
 Examples Quartiles and the IQR
• The lower quartile (Q1) is the value of x
• 90% of all men (16 and older) earn which is larger than 25% and less than
more than $319 per week. 75% of the ordered measurements.
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS

10% 90%
$319 is the 10th • The upper quartile (Q3) is the value of x
$319 percentile. which is larger than 75% and less than
25% of the ordered measurements.
50th Percentile ≡ Median
• The range of the “middle 50%” of the
25th Percentile ≡ Lower Quartile (Q1) measurements is the interquartile range,
75th Percentile ≡ Upper Quartile (Q3) IQR = Q3 – Q1
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Calculating Sample Quartiles Example

• The lower and upper quartiles (Q1 and The prices ($) of 18 brands of walking shoes:
40 60 65 65 65 68 68 70 70
Q3), can be calculated as follows:
70 70 70 70 74 75 75 90 95
• The position of Q1 is .25(n + 1)
Position of Q1 = .25(18 + 1) = 4.75
•The position of Q3 is .75(n + 1) Position of Q3 = .75(18 + 1) = 14.25

9Q1is 3/4 of the way between the 4th and 5th

once the measurements have been ordered measurements, or
ordered. If the positions are not integers, Q1 = 65 + .75(65 - 65) = 65.
find the quartiles by interpolation.
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Example Using Measures of Center and

The prices ($) of 18 brands of walking shoes: Spread: The Box Plot
40 60 65 65 65 68 68 70 70 The Five-Number Summary:
70 70 70 70 74 75 75 90 95
Min Q1 Median Q3 Max
Position of Q1 = .25(18 + 1) = 4.75
Position of Q3 = .75(18 + 1) = 14.25 •Divides the data into 4 sets containing an
equal number of measurements.
9Q3 is 1/4 of the way between the 14th and 15th
ordered measurements, or •A quick summary of the data distribution.
Q3 = 75 + .25(75 - 74) = 75.25 •Use to form a box plot to describe the shape
9and of the distribution and to detect outliers.
IQR = Q3 – Q1 = 75.25 - 65 = 10.25
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 Constructing a Box Plot Constructing a Box Plot
9Calculate Q1, the median, Q3 and IQR. 9Isolate outliers by calculating
9Lower fence: Q1-1.5 IQR
9Draw a horizontal line to represent the scale
9Upper fence: Q3+1.5 IQR
of measurement.
9Measurements beyond the upper or lower
9Draw a box using Q1, the median, Q3.
fence is are outliers and are marked (*).
*
Q1 m Q3 Q1 m Q3

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Constructing a Box Plot Example

Amt of sodium in 8 brands of cheese:
9Draw “whiskers” connecting the largest and
260 290 300 320 330 340 340 520
smallest measurements that are NOT outliers
MY APPLET
to the box. Q1 = 292.5 m = 325 Q3 = 340

*
Q1 m Q3 m
Q1 Q3
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Example Interpreting Box Plots

IQR = 340-292.5 = 47.5 9Median line in center of box and whiskers
Lower fence = 292.5-1.5(47.5) = 221.25 of equal length—symmetric distribution
Upper fence = 340 + 1.5(47.5) = 411.25
MY APPLET
9Median line left of center and long right
Outlier: x = 520
whisker—skewed right
9Median line right of center and long left
* whisker—skewed left

m
Q1 Q3
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7
 Key Concepts Key Concepts
2. Variance
I. Measures of Center ∑( xi − µ ) 2
a. Population of N measurements: σ =
2
1. Arithmetic mean (mean) or average N
b. Sample of n measurements:
a. Population: µ
∑ xi (∑ xi ) 2
b. Sample of size n: x = ∑ xi −
2

n ∑( xi − x )
2
n
s2 = =
2. Median: position of the median = .5(n +1) n −1 n −1
3. Mode 3. Standard deviation
4. The median may preferred to the mean if the data are
Population standard deviation : σ = σ 2
highly skewed.
II. Measures of Variability Sample standard deviation : s = s 2
1. Range: R = largest − smallest 4. A rough approximation for s can be calculated as s ≈ R / 4.
The divisor can be adjusted depending on the sample size.
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Key Concepts Key Concepts

III. Tchebysheff’s Theorem and the Empirical Rule IV. Measures of Relative Standing
1. Use Tchebysheff’s Theorem for any data set, regardless of 1. Sample z-score:
its shape or size. 2. pth percentile; p% of the measurements are smaller, and
(100 − p)% are larger.
a. At least 1-(1/k 2 ) of the measurements lie within k
3. Lower quartile, Q 1; position of Q 1 = .25(n +1)
standard deviation of the mean.
4. Upper quartile, Q 3 ; position of Q 3 = .75(n +1)
b. This is only a lower bound; there may be more 5. Interquartile range: IQR = Q 3 − Q 1
measurements in the interval. V. Box Plots
2. The Empirical Rule can be used only for relatively mound- 1. Box plots are used for detecting outliers and shapes of
shaped data sets. distributions.
– Approximately 68%, 95%, and 99.7% of the measurements
2. Q 1 and Q 3 form the ends of the box. The median line is in
are within one, two, and three standard deviations of the
mean, respectively. the interior of the box.
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Key Concepts
3. Upper and lower fences are used to find outliers.
a. Lower fence: Q 1 − 1.5(IQR)
b. Outer fences: Q 3 + 1.5(IQR)
4. Whiskers are connected to the smallest and largest
measurements that are not outliers.
5. Skewed distributions usually have a long whisker in
the direction of the skewness, and the median line is
drawn away from the direction of the skewness.

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