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Research Proposal

This document outlines a research proposal to more accurately forecast Pakistan's energy demand and supply using new estimation techniques. The research will use Particle Swarm Optimization and Ant Colony algorithms to model Pakistan's socioeconomic factors and estimate future energy imports, exports, and consumption. This approach has never been used before for Pakistan and aims to improve upon previous rough estimation methods. The research will help Pakistan better understand and plan for its long-term energy needs to support sustainable development goals.

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Baber Younis
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36 views3 pages

Research Proposal

This document outlines a research proposal to more accurately forecast Pakistan's energy demand and supply using new estimation techniques. The research will use Particle Swarm Optimization and Ant Colony algorithms to model Pakistan's socioeconomic factors and estimate future energy imports, exports, and consumption. This approach has never been used before for Pakistan and aims to improve upon previous rough estimation methods. The research will help Pakistan better understand and plan for its long-term energy needs to support sustainable development goals.

Uploaded by

Baber Younis
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Title

Energy demand forecast in countries facing energy issues. The case of Pakistan.

Analysis

As we know that energy is very essential driving force for economic social and technological
development of a country. The relation between the economic development of a country and its
energy demand is considered a key issue and it involves many economic, social and technological
analysis. Understanding Long term energy development trajectories is a great challenge in moving
towards a sustainable developing in a globalizing world especially for a country which is facing huge
amount of energy issues/crises loss and theft from the past 2 decades. The intend of my research
will be to forecast over all energy Demand and supply for our country. In past there has not been
any research on this as our energy demands were estimated by rough methods which overestimate
the real energy needs.

Research Methods

The Dissertation will focus multiple areas explaining the importance of Energy demands forecast for
our country. The first area we focus will be Pakistan energy demand by using the structure of the
Pakistan Socio-economic condition will be the main objective of this study. Secondly we will use
Particle Swarm Optimization and Aunt Colony Algorithm demand estimation model which is very
robust estimation models and has never been use for estimating energy demands in our country. We
will also study GDP population imports and exports of the country.

The General Structure Of The Study

Introduction: Extensive Description about the problem why our demand estimation technique
should be alter to new and precise Particle Swarm Optimization and Aunt Colony algorithms for
demand estimation. From the old estimation technique which were obtained by our Ministry of
Water and Power.

Problem Definition: Here we will define the problem and expected outcomes and how to tackle
those outcomes.

Survey: Survey on the GDP and imports exports of our country to get prior concepts.

Particle Swarm Optimization: PSO is a population-based stochastic optimization


technique developed in 1995 by Kennedy and Eberhart which is inspired by social behaviour of bird
flocking and fish schooling. To apply PSO successfully, one of the key issues is to find how to map the
solution of the problem into the PSO particle, which directly affects its feasibility and performance.

Energy Demand Forecast With PSO: With this we will analyse over all imports exports estimation of
future energy and the factor effecting energy consumptions.

Related work and Comparison: Comparison of previously developed optimization and estimation
techniques on the mention topics and why these have to be improved.
Conclusion: Will talk about our proposed solution that how it will improve our new estimation
techniques.

References: Will write the Objects/Article which helped me in performing this research.

Academic Contribution:

This research will contribute in many ways. Initially it will help under developed countries around the
world to use it Energy in a proper and convenient way And it will diminished the gap of energy usage
between there system and developed countries energy system. There will be less energy shortfall as
whole energy will be estimated annually. It will help the under developed countries as they face
many issues like load shedding etc.

Literature Review

Several studies are presented to propose some models for energy demand policy management using
different techniques.

1: Unler A. Improvement of energy demand forecasts using swarm intelligence: the case of Turkey
with projections to 2025. Energy Policy 2008
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421508000712

2: Amjadi MH, Nezamabadi-pour H, Farsangi MM. Estimation of electricity


demand of Iran using two heuristic algorithms. Energy Conversion and
Management 2010;51:493e7
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0196890409004099

3:A novel hybrid approach based on Particle Swarm Optimization and Ant Colony Algorithm to
forecast energy demand of Turkey
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S019689041100207

4: Toksari developed Ant Colony energy demand estimation models for Turkey
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421507000389

Energy crises in Pakistan


https://pace.pk/energy-crisis-in-pakistan-solutions/

Estimation of Solar Energy Potential for Islamabad, Pakistan


https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1876610212009368

The main Idea/theme of my research will be to estimate overall energy demand of Pakistan. It will
help my country from many energy crises going out right now.

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