Problems

8.3 For the data given in the following table, identify a suitable decline model, determine
model parameters, predict the time when the production rate will decline to a marginal
value of 50 Mscf/day, and the reverses to be recovered before the marginal production
rate is reached:

Solution :

log (q) VS t
10000

1000
q (Mscf/D)

100

10

1
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
t (month)

 Grafik log (q) Vs t menunjukkan model decline eksponensial

=
( − )

t1 = 2 months, q1 = 819 Mscf/D

= = , /
( − )

∆
t (month) q (Mscf/D) Δq Δt − ∆
1 904,84 - - -
2 818,73 -86,11 1 0,105
3 740,82 -77,91 1 0,105
4 670,32 -70,5 1 0,105
5 606,53 -63,79 1 0,105
6 548,81 -57,72 1 0,105
7 496,59 -52,22 1 0,105
8 449,33 -47,26 1 0,105
9 406,57 -42,76 1 0,105
10 367,88 -38,69 1 0,105
11 332,87 -35,01 1 0,105
12 301,19 -31,68 1 0,105
13 272,53 -28,66 1 0,105
14 246,6 -25,93 1 0,105
15 223,13 -23,47 1 0,105
16 201,9 -21,23 1 0,105
17 182,68 -19,22 1 0,105
18 165,3 -17,38 1 0,105
19 149,57 -15,73 1 0,105
20 135,34 -14,23 1 0,105
21 122,46 -12,88 1 0,105
22 110,8 -11,66 1 0,105
23 100,26 -10,54 1 0,105
24 90,72 -9,54 1 0,105
 0,15
0,14
0,13
0,12
- Δq/qΔt 0,11
(1/month)0,10
0,09
0,08
0,07
0,06
0,05
3 203 403 603 803 1003
q (Mscf/D)

1000
900
800
700
q (Mscf/D)

600
500
400
300
200
100
0
0 10 20 30
t (month)
=
(qi is production rate at t=0)
=
=
905
= ( , )( )

= 1000 /
8.4 For the data given in the following table, identify a suitable decline model, determine
model parameters, predict the time when the production rate will decline to a marginal
value of 50 stb/day, and yearly oil productions:

Solution :

log(q) VS t
10000

1000
q (STB/D)

100

10

1
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
t (month)
 Grafik log (q) Vs t menunjukkan model decline eksponensial
 Model parameter
Untuk decline eksponensial

=
( − )

t1 = 2 months, q1 = 1637 Mscf/D

= = , /
( − )
t (month) q (Mscf/D) Δq Δt

1 1810 - - -
2 1637 -173 1 0,106
3 1482 -155 1 0,105
4 1341 -141 1 0,105
5 1213 -128 1 0,106
6 1098 -115 1 0,105
7 993 -105 1 0,106
8 899 -94 1 0,105
9 813 -86 1 0,106
10 736 -77 1 0,105
11 666 -70 1 0,105
12 602 -64 1 0,106
13 545 -57 1 0,105
14 493 -52 1 0,105
15 446 -47 1 0,105
16 404 -42 1 0,104
17 365 -39 1 0,107
18 331 -34 1 0,103
19 299 -32 1 0,107
20 271 -28 1 0,103
21 245 -26 1 0,106
22 222 -23 1 0,104
23 201 -21 1 0,104
24 181 -20 1 0,110
 0,150

0,130
(1/month)
0,110
- Δq/qΔt

0,090

0,070

0,050
0 500 1000 1500 2000
q (STB/D)

2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
q (STB/D)

1000
800
600
400
200
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
t (month)

=
(qi is production rate at t=0)
=
=
1810
= ( , )( )

= 2000 /