GIK INSTITUTE OF ENGINEERING SCIENCES & TECHNOLOGY

FACULTY OF ENGINEERING SCIENCES

Syllabus/Course Outline
Engineering Statistics (ES 202)
Spring Semester 2018

Pre-Requisite(s): MT 102 – Calculus II

Instructor: Mr. Shahid Ahmad

Office: Room G-8, FES
Phone: 2220
Email: [email protected]

Office Hours: Posted outside office door of course instructor. Also by appointment.

Course Introduction

This course is a basic engineering course that introduces the students to the fundamentals of probability theory, engineering
statistics, and data analysis. The first one half of the course develops necessary “Probability Theory” that is used to analyze
the random processes occurring in natural sciences and engineering. The second half of the course is about “Inferential
Statistics” where the students learn the techniques of analyzing the statistical data and making inferences about population
using sample data. Statistical tests are developed using the probability theory learned in first half of the course. The
emphasis is on using statistical methods to the problems of applied science and engineering. Students are expected to have
good background of analytical skills for this course. On completion of this course, the students will be trained enough to
appreciate the power of statistical techniques and apply these tools to analyze problems in their areas.

Course Contents

• Introduction to Probability: Basic definitions, axioms of probability, addition and multiplication rules, conditional
probabilities, independence, and Baye’s rule, revision of permutations and combinations.
• Probability Distributions: Random variables and probability distributions, discrete and continuous RVs, probability
mass function, density function, and cumulative distribution function, mean, variance, higher moments and their
calculation.
• Discrete Distributions: Binomial, Poisson, geometric, hyper geometric, negative binomial, and multinomial
distributions, mean and variance of standard discrete distributions.
• Continuous Distributions: Exponential, gamma, and normal distributions, mean and variance of standard
continuous distributions.
• Normal Distribution and Central Limit Theorem: Chebyshev’s inequality, law of large numbers, central limit
theorem.
• Descriptive Statistics and Random Sampling: Data arrangement, measures of central tendency, spread and
variability, frequency distributions and histograms, plots of data, random sampling, distribution of sample mean and
variance.
• Point Estimation: Point estimation, methods of moments and method of maximum likelihood, unbiased estimators,
mean and variance of a point estimator, standard error and mean-square error.
• Interval Estimation: Confidence intervals of mean and variance, sample size, small sample theory and t-distribution,
confidence interval of population proportion.
• Hypothesis Testing: Statistical hypotheses, one and two tail tests, type I and type II errors, P-values and critical
regions, Chi-square test.
 Mapping of CLOs to PLOs
Sr. No Course Learning Outcomes PLOs Blooms Taxonomy
Be able to apply probability theory including
sample space, joint probability, conditional
CLO-1 PLO-2 C3 (Applying)
probability, Baye’s rule, total probability and
independence to formulate engineering problems.
Be able to calculate the probabilities and other
CLO-2 PLO-2 C3 (Applying)
numerical characteristics of random phenomena.
Be able to draw the inferences about population
CLO-3 and sample data using techniques of “Inferential PLO-2 C5 (Evaluating)
Statistics”.
CLO Assessment Mechanism
Assessment tools CLO_1 CLO_2 CLO_3
Quizzes 30% 25% 20%
Assignments 5% 25% 20%
Midterm Exam 40% 30% 20%
Final Exam 25% 20% 40%
Overall Grading Policy
Assessment Items Percentage
Announced Quizzes 20%
Assignments 5%
Midterm Exam 30%
Final Exam 45%
Text and Reference Books

Text Book:
•
th
Probability and Statistics for Engineering and Sciences by Jay L. Devore, (8 Edition, Brooks/Cole USA, 2012).

Reference Book:
•
th
Probability and Statistics for Engineers (Miller & Freund's) by Richard A. Johnson (9 Edition, Pearson 2017).

Computer Usage
Students are encouraged to solve some assigned homework problems using the available statistical software.

Administrative Instructions

• According to institute policy, 80% attendance is mandatory to appear in the final examination.
• Assignments must be submitted as per instructions given for each assignment.
• In any case, there will be no retake of (scheduled/surprise) quizzes.

Lecture Breakdown

• Lecture 01 Overview of Engineering Statistics

• Lecture 02 Revision of set algebra and simple combinatorics
• Lecture 03 Basic definitions and axioms of probability
• Lecture 04 Addition and multiplication rules of probability
• Lecture 05 Conditional probabilities and independence
• Lecture 06 Law of total probability and Baye’s rule
• Lecture 07 Random variables and probability distributions
• Lecture 08 Discrete and continuous RVs
• Lecture 09 Probability mass function, density function
• Lecture 10 Cumulative distribution function
• Lecture 11 Expected value of pdf and its calculation
• Lecture 12 Variance of pdf and its calculation
• Lecture 13 Binomial distribution and its mean and variance
• Lecture 14 Continue binomial distribution
• Lecture 15 Poisson distribution and its mean and variance
• Lecture 16 Continue Poisson distribution
• Lecture 17 Geometric and hypergeometric distribution and their mean and variance
• Lecture 18 Negative binomial distribution and its mean and variance
• Lecture 19 Normal distribution and its mean and variance
• Lecture 20 Continue normal distribution
• Lecture 21 Approximation of binomial by normal distribution
• Lecture 22 Exponential distribution and its mean and variance
• Lecture 23 Gamma distribution and its mean and variance
• Lecture 24 Chebyshev’s inequality and law of large numbers
• Lecture 25 Central limit theorem and its applications
• Lecture 26 Data arrangement and central tendency
• Lecture 27 Spread and variability
• Lecture 28 Frequency distributions and histograms, plots of data
• Lecture 29 Random sampling, distribution of sample mean and variance
• Lecture 30 Point estimation
• Lecture 31 Types of estimator, standard error and MSE
• Lecture 32 Problems on point estimation
• Lecture 33 Methods of moments
• Lecture 34 Method of maximum likelihood
• Lecture 35 Further problems on point estimation
• Lecture 36 Confidence intervals
• Lecture 37 Confidence intervals of mean and variance in different situations
• Lecture 38 Continue confidence intervals of mean and variance
• Lecture 39 Sample size, small sample theory and t-distribution
• Lecture 40 Confidence interval of population proportion
• Lecture 41 Statistical hypotheses and one and two tail tests
• Lecture 42 Type I and type II errors
• Lecture 43 P-values and critical regions
• Lecture 44 Hypothesis testing on mean, variance and population proportion
• Lecture 45 Problems on hypothesis testing

Note: This outline serves only as a rough guidance of the course. It may be changed or modified as
and when deemed necessary by the instructor. The Instructor is at liberty to best distribute
number of lectures and/or change the sequence of topics to cover the entire course.