CL419

Process Economics
Credit Structure 2-2-0-4

Profitability Analysis and

Process Optimization
 INTRODUCTION TO PROFITABILITY

The word Profitability is used as the general term for the

measure of the amount of profit that can be obtained from
a given situation. Profitability, therefore, is the common
denominator for all business activities.
The determination and analysis of profits obtainable from
the investment of capital and the choice of the best
investment among various alternatives are major goals of
an economic analysis.
Investments may be made for replacing or improving an
existing property, for developing a completely new
enterprise, or for other purposes wherein a profit is
expected from the outlay of capital.
 INTRODUCTION TO PROFITABILITY

PROFITABILITY STANDARDS
In the process of making an investment decision, the
profits anticipated from the investment of funds should be
considered in terms of a minimum profitability standard.
This profitability standard, which can normally be
expressed on a direct numerical basis, must be weighed
against the overall judgment evaluation for the project in
making the final decision as to whether or not the project
should be undertaken.
The judgment evaluation must be based on the recognition
that a quantified profitability standard can serve only as a
guide.
 INTRODUCTION TO PROFITABILITY

Many intangible factors, such as future changes in demand

or prices, possibility of operational failure, or premature
obsolescence, cannot be quantified. It is in areas of this
type that judgment becomes critical in making a final
investment decision.
A primary factor in the judgment decision is the
consideration of possible alternatives. For example, the
alternatives to continuing the operation of an existing plant
may be to replace it with a more efficient plant, to
discontinue the operation entirely, or to make modifications
in the existing plant. In reaching the final decision, the
alternatives should be considered two at a time on a
mutually exclusive basis.
 INTRODUCTION TO PROFITABILITY

BASES FOR EVALUATING PROJECT PROFITABILITY

Total profit alone cannot be used as the deciding
profitability factor in determining if an investment should be
made. The profit goal of a company is to maximize income
above the cost of the capital which must be invested to
generate the income (remember economic design criteria).
The basic aim of a profitability analysis is to give a
measure of the attractiveness of the project for comparison
to other possible courses of action.
It is, therefore, very important to consider the exact
purpose of a profitability analysis before the standard
reference or base case is chosen.
Mathematical Methods for Profitability Evaluation

The most commonly used methods for profitability

evaluation can be categorized under the following headings:
1. Rate of return on investment
2. Discounted cash flow based on full-life
performance
3. Net present worth
4. Capitalized costs
5. Payout period (or Payback period)

Each of these methods has its advantages and disadvantages. Because

no single method is best for all situations, the engineer should
understand the basic ideas involved in each method and be able to
choose the one best suited to the needs of the particular situation.
Mathematical Methods for Profitability Evaluation

Rate of Return on Investment

Rate of Return expressed on an

annual percentage basis
Mathematical Methods for Profitability Evaluation

RATE OF RETURN ON INVESTMENT

In engineering economic studies, rate of return on
investment is ordinarily expressed on an annual
percentage basis.
The yearly profit divided by the total initial investment
necessary represents the fractional return, and this
fraction times 100 is the standard percent return on
investment.
Profits may be expressed on a before-tax or after-tax
basis, but the conditions should be indicated.
Mathematical Methods for Profitability Evaluation
RATE OF RETURN ON INVESTMENT

Example (Peters and Timmerhaus)

Determination of rate of return on investment-consideration of
income-tax effects
A proposed manufacturing plant requires an initial fixed-capital investment of
$900,000 and $100,000 of working capital. It is estimated that the annual income
will be $800,000 and the annual expenses including depreciation will be
$520,000 before income taxes. A minimum annual return of 15 percent before
income taxes is required before the investment will be worthwhile. Income taxes
amount to 34 percent of all pre-tax profits.
Determine the following:
(a) The annual percent return on the total initial investment before income taxes.
(b) The annual percent return on the total initial investment after income taxes.
(c) The annual percent return on the total initial investment before income taxes
based on capital recovery with minimum profit.
(d) The annual percent return on the average investment before income taxes
assuming straight-line depreciation and zero salvage value.
Mathematical Methods for Profitability Evaluation
RATE OF RETURN ON INVESTMENT

Solution
Mathematical Methods for Profitability Evaluation
RATE OF RETURN ON INVESTMENT

The methods for determining rate of return, as presented

here, give point values which are either applicable for one
particular year or for some sort of average year.
They do not consider the time value of money, and they do
not account for the fact that profits and costs may vary
significantly over the life of the project.
Predictable factors, such as increasing maintenance costs
or changing sales volume, may make it necessary to
estimate year-by-year profits with variation during the life of
the project. For these situations, analyses of project
profitability cannot be made on the basis of one point on a
flat time-versus-earning curve, and profitability analyses
based on discounted cash flow may be more appropriate.
Mathematical Methods for Profitability Evaluation

Discounted Cash Flow

Mathematical Methods for Profitability Evaluation

Rate of Return Based on Discounted Cash Flow

[Common names of methods of return calculations related to the discounted-cash-flow approach are
Profitability Index, Interest Rate of Return, True Rate of Return, and Investors Rate of Return]
The method of approach for a profitability evaluation by discounted
cash flow takes into account the time value of money and is based on
the amount of the investment that is unreturned at the end of each year
during the estimated life of the project.
A trial-and-error procedure is used to establish a rate of return which
can be applied to yearly cash flow so that the original investment is
reduced to zero (or to salvage and land value plus working-capital
investment) during the project life.
Thus, the rate of return by this method is equivalent to the maximum
interest rate (normally, after taxes) at which money could be borrowed
to finance the project under conditions where the net cash flow to the
project over its life would be just sufficient to pay all principal and
interest accumulated on the outstanding principal.
Mathematical Methods for Profitability Evaluation
Rate of Return Based on Discounted Cash Flow

Example
Consider the case of a proposed project for which the following data
apply: Initial fixed-capital investment = $100,000
Working-capital investment = $10,000
Service life = 5 years
Salvage value at end of service life = $10,000
Mathematical Methods for Profitability Evaluation
Rate of Return Based on Discounted Cash Flow
Mathematical Methods for Profitability Evaluation
Rate of Return Based on Discounted Cash Flow

Graphical analysis for trial-and-error determination of

discounted-cash-flow rate of return
Mathematical Methods for Profitability Evaluation
Rate of Return Based on Discounted Cash Flow

Homework Assignment
(Only for practice Not to be submitted)

Using the discount factors for continuous interest and continuous

cash flow concept, determine the continuous discounted-cash-flow
rate of return r for the example presented in the preceding section
where yearly cash flow is continuous.
Mathematical Methods for Profitability Evaluation

Net Present Worth

In the preceding treatment of discounted cash flow, the procedure
has involved the determination of an index or interest rate which
discounts the annual cash flows to a zero present value when
properly compared to the initial investment.
A related approach, known as the method of net present worth (or
net present value or venture worth), substitutes the cost of capital
at an interest rate i for the discounted-cash-flow rate of return.
The cost of capital can be taken as the average rate of return the
company earns on its capital, or it can be designated as the
minimum acceptable return for the project. The net present worth
of the project is then the difference between the present value of
the annual cash flows and the initial required investment.
Mathematical Methods for Profitability Evaluation
Capitalized Costs

Concept of an Annuity
An annuity is a series of equal payments occurring
at equal time intervals.
Payments of this type can be used to pay off a debt,
accumulate a desired amount of capital, or receive a
lump sum of capital that is due in periodic
instalments as in some life-insurance plans.
Engineers often encounter annuities in depreciation
calculations, where the decrease in value of
equipment with time is accounted for by an annuity
plan.
Mathematical Methods for Profitability Evaluation
Capitalized Costs

Concept of an Annuity
The common type of annuity involves payments which
occur at the end of each interest period. This is
known as an ordinary annuity. Interest is paid on all
accumulated amounts, and the interest is compounded
each payment period.
An annuity term is the time from the beginning of the
first payment period to the end of the last payment
period. The amount of an annuity is the sum of all the
payments plus interest if allowed to accumulate at a
definite rate of interest from the time of initial payment
to the end of the annuity term.
Mathematical Methods for Profitability Evaluation
Capitalized Costs
Concept of an Annuity
The present worth of an annuity is defined as the
principal which would have to be invested at the
present time at compound interest rate i to yield a total
amount at the end of the annuity term equal to the
amount of the annuity.
Special Types of Annuities
One special form of an annuity requires that payments
be made at the beginning of each period instead of at
the end of each period. This is known as an annuity due.
An annuity in which the first payment is due after a
definite number of years is called a deferred annuity.
Mathematical Methods for Profitability Evaluation
Capitalized Costs

Special Types of Annuities

A perpetuity is an annuity in which the periodic payments
continue indefinitely. This type of annuity is of particular interest
to engineers, for in some cases they may desire to determine a
total cost for a piece of equipment or other asset under
conditions which permit the asset to be replaced perpetually
without considering inflation or deflation.
If the equipment is to perpetuate itself, the theoretical amount of
total capital necessary at the start would be an initial sum for the
equipment plus the replacement fund. The total capital
determined in this manner is called the capitalized cost.
Engineers use capitalized costs principally for comparing
alternative choices.
Mathematical Methods for Profitability Evaluation

Capitalized Costs

The capitalized-cost profitability concept is useful for

comparing alternatives which exist as possible investment
choices within a single overall project. For example, if a
decision based on profitability analysis were to be made
as to whether stainless steel or mild steel should be used
in a chemical reactor as one part of a chemical plant,
capitalized-cost comparison would be a useful and
appropriate approach.
Mathematical Methods for Profitability Evaluation
Capitalized Costs

Capitalized cost related to investment represents the

amount of money that must be available initially to
purchase the equipment and simultaneously provide
sufficient funds for interest accumulation to permit
perpetual replacement of the equipment.
If only one portion of an overall process to accomplish
a set objective is involved and operating costs do not
vary, then the alternative giving the least capitalized
cost would be the desirable economic choice.
Mathematical Methods for Profitability Evaluation
Capitalized Costs

Graphical description of Net Present Worth and Capitalized

Cost as profitability measures
Mathematical Methods for Profitability Evaluation
Capitalized Costs

Inclusion of Operating Costs in

Capitalized-Costs Profitability Evaluation
The capitalized-costs concept can be extended to
include operating costs by adding an additional
capitalized cost to cover operating costs during the
life of the project.
Each annual operating cost is considered as equivalent
to a necessary piece of equipment that will last one
year.
The total capitalized cost is the sum of the capitalized
cost for the initial investment and that for the
operating costs plus the working capital.
Mathematical Methods for Profitability Evaluation
Payout Period

Payout period, or payout time, is defined as the minimum length

of time theoretically necessary to recover the original capital
investment in the form of cash flow to the project based on total
income minus all costs except depreciation.
Generally, for this method, original capital investment means
only the original, depreciable, fixed-capital investment, and
interest effects are neglected.
Thus,
Mathematical Methods for Profitability Evaluation
Payout Period Including Interest

Another approach to payout period takes the time value of

money into consideration and is designated as payout period
including interest.
With this method, an appropriate interest rate is chosen
representing the minimum acceptable rate of return.
The annual cash flows to the project during the estimated life
are discounted at the designated interest rate to permit
computation of an average annual figure for profit plus
depreciation which reflects the time value of money.
The time to recover the tied-capital investment plus
compounded interest on the total capital investment during the
estimated life by means of the average annual cash flow is the
payout period including interest.
Mathematical Methods for Profitability Evaluation
Payout Period Including Interest

Payout period including interest:

This method tends to increase the payout period

above that found with no interest charge and reflects
advantages for projects that earn most of their
profits during the early years of the service life.
 ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS
(Application of Profitability Measures)

An Example (Peters and Timmerhaus)

A chemical company is considering adding a new
production unit which will require a total investment of
$1,200,000 and will yield an annual after-tax profit of
$240,000. An alternative addition has been proposed
requiring an investment of $2 million and yielding an
annual after-tax profit of $300,000. Although both of these
proposals are based on reliable estimates, the company
executives feel that other equally sound investments can
be made with at least a 14 percent annual after-tax rate of
return. Therefore, the minimum rate of return required for
the new investment is 14 percent after taxes.
 ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS
(Application of Profitability Measures)

An Example (Peters and Timmerhaus) [continued]

The rate of return on the $1,200,000 unit is 20 percent, and
that for the alternative addition is 15 percent. Both of these
returns exceed the minimum required value, and it might
appear that the $2 million investment should be
recommended because it yields the greater amount of profit
per year. However, a comparison of the incremental
investment between the two proposals shows that the extra
investment of $800,000 gives a profit of only $60,000, or an
incremental return of 7.5 percent. Therefore, if the company
has $2 million to invest, it would be more profitable to accept
the $1,200,000 proposal and put the other $800,000 in
another investment at the indicated 14 percent return.
 ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS
(Application of Profitability Measures)

A general rule for making comparisons of

alternative investments
The minimum investment which will give the necessary
functional results and the required rate of return should
always be accepted unless there is a specific reason for
accepting an alternative investment requiring more initial
capital.
When alternatives are available, therefore, the base plan would be
that requiring the minimum acceptable investment. The alternatives
should be compared with the base plan, and additional capital would
not be invested unless an acceptable incremental return or some
other distinct advantage could be shown.
 ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS
(Application of Profitability Measures)

AN EXAMPLE TO ILLUSTRATE PRINCIPLES OF

ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENT ANALYSIS
An existing plant has been operating in such a
way that a large amount of heat is being lost in
the waste gases. It has been proposed to save
money by recovering the heat that is now being
lost. Four different heat exchangers have been
designed to recover the heat, and all prices,
costs, and savings have been calculated for each
of the designs. The results of these calculations
are presented in the following:
 ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS
(Application of Profitability Measures)

The company in charge of the plant demands at least a 10 percent

annual return based on the initial investment for any unnecessary
investment. Only one of the four designs can be accepted.
Neglecting effects due to income taxes and the time value of
money, which (if any) of the four designs should be recommended?
ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS
(Application of Profitability Measures)
Solution
ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS
(Application of Profitability Measures)
Solution
ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS
(Application of Profitability Measures)
Solution
ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS
(Application of Profitability Measures)
Solution
 ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS
(Application of Profitability Measures)

Analysis of Advantages and Disadvantages of Various Profitability

Measures for Comparing Alternatives
Of the methods presented for profitability evaluation and the economic
comparison of alternatives, net present worth and discounted cash flow
are the most generally acceptable, and these methods are recommended.
Capitalized costs have limited utility but can serve to give useful and
correct results when applied to appropriate situations.
Payout period does not adequately consider the later years of the project
life, does not consider working capital, and is generally useful only for
rough and preliminary analyses.
Rates of return on original investment and average investment do not
include the time value of money, require approximations for estimating
average income, and can give distorted results of methods used for
depreciation allowances.
 REPLACEMENTS

The term replacement, as used in Process

Economics, refers to a special type of alternative
in which facilities are currently in existence and it
may be desirable to replace these facilities with
different ones.
Although intangible factors may have a strong
influence on decisions relative to replacements,
the design engineer must understand the tangible
economic implications when a recommendation is
made as to whether or not existing equipment or
facilities should be replaced.
 REPLACEMENTS
The reasons for making replacements can be divided into two general
classes, as follows:
1. An existing property must be replaced or changed in order to
continue operation and meet the required demands for service or
production. Some examples of reasons for this type of necessary
replacement are:
The property is worn out and can give no further useful service.
The property does not have sufficient capacity to meet the demand
placed upon it.
Operation of the property is no longer economically feasible because
changes in design or product requirements have caused the property
to become obsolete.
2. An existing property is capable of yielding the necessary product
or service, but more efficient equipment or property is available
which can operate with lower expenses.
 REPLACEMENTS
When the reason for a replacement falls in the first general
type, the only alternatives are to make the necessary
changes or else go out of business. Under these
conditions, the final economic analysis is usually reduced
to a comparison of alternative investments.
The correct decision as the desirability of replacing an
existing property which is capable of yielding the necessary
product or service depends on a clear understanding of
theoretical replacement policies plus a careful
consideration of many practical factors.
In order to determine whether or not a change is advisable,
the operating expenses with the present equipment must
be compared with those that would exist if the change were
made.
 REPLACEMENTS

Methods of Profitability Evaluation for Replacements

The same methods that were explained and applied
earlier are applicable for replacement analyses.
Net-present-worth and discounted-cash flow methods
give the soundest results for maximizing the overall
future worth of a concern.
For the purpose of explaining the basic principles of
replacement economic analyses, the simple rate-of-
return-on-investment method of analysis is just as
effective as those methods involving the time value of
money.