Evaluating Prototyping Tech
Evaluating Prototyping Tech
HD28
.M414
no.
WORKING PAPER
ALFRED P. SLOAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT
by
Matthew B. Wall
Karl T. Ubich
Woodie C. Flowers
MASSACHUSETTS
INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
50 MEMORIAL DRIVE
CAMBRIDGE, MASSACHUSETTS 02139
Evaluating Prototyping Technologies
for Product Design
by
Matthew B. Wall
Karl T. Ulrich
Woodie C. Flowers
Matthew B. Wall
Karl T. Ulrich*
Woodie C. Flowers
Abstract
Firms that design mechanical and electromechanical products confront a variety of difficult issues in
their prototyping activities. For a given part, how can a choice among fabrication technologies be
made? Where should investments in new prototyping technology be focused? How can new and existing
prototyping technologies he evaluated? Our primary goal has been to develop a systematic method of
evaluating prototyping processes in order to determine the best process for a given situation. A
secondary goal has been to map the "space" of prototyping processes in order to determine future process
development needs. Using data from a field study at the Kodak Apparatus Division, we have
developed a systematic method for evaluating and selecting prototyping processes. Our data is drawn
from (Da user survey of prototyping perceptions and needs, (2) a survey to determine the importance of
various prototype part performance attributes, and (3) estimates of the fabrication time, cost, and part
performance for 104 parts and four prototyping processes.
Acknowledgements
The research described in this paper was supported by the MIT Leaders for Manufacturing Program, an
educational and research partnership between MIT and eleven major U.S. corporations. We are
indebted to the Apparatus Division of the Eastman Kodak Company for providing data and insights
for this research. A version of this paper appeared in the proceedings of the Third International ASME
Conference on Design Theory and Methodology, 1991.
Address all correspondence to this author at: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of
Management, Room E53-390, Cambridge, MA 02142-1347 U.S.A.
1. INTRODUCTION
Prototyping is one of the most critical activities in new product development. Firms
that design mechanical and electro-mechanical products coiifront a vciriety of
difficult issues in their prototyping activities. Some of these issues are tactical: For a
given part, how can a choice among fabrication technologies be made? Some of the
issues are strategic: Where should investments in new prototyping technology be
focused? How can new and existing prototyping technologies be evaluated? We
believe that there are useful conceptual frameworks and fundamental relationships
that can be developed and used to support prototyping decisions, even though broad
generalizations are likely to fail in some Such a framework
particular situations. is
This paper describes research addressing these issues. Our primary goal has been to
develop a systematic method of evaluating prototyping processes in order to
determine the best process for a given situation. A secondary goal has been to map
the "space" of prototyping processes in order to determine future process
development needs.
The paper has four sections. In the balance of the introduction we define
prototyping, present a conceptual framework for evaluating prototypes and
prototyping processes, and describe our research focus. In the second section we
present our approach and methodology. The third section details our results. The
final section lists our conclusions and suggests areas for future research.
What is Prototyping?
Technically, a prototype is the first thing of its kind. But "prototype" has come to
mean many different things in the context of product development. For the
developer of commercial satellites, the prototype may be the final product. At the
other extreme, the development of a new ballpoint pen may involve more than 10
Page 2
prototypes before the desigr. is finalized. Some prototypes are used to assess styling,
some are used to perform life testing, some are used to verify fit. Other words
frequently used to describe the function of a prototype include breadboard, model,
and mock up. Each is an example of a prototype; each emphasizes a different aspect
of what a prototype does. In our definition of a prototype we include both electroruc
and physical representations of the part or product.
In most cases prototypes are built to answer questions. In the engineering context, a
prototype proves a technology or its application. In the marketing context, the
prototype is a vehicle through which the marketer simulates customer response or
finalizes design requirements. In the manufacturing context, a prototyp>e proves a
process or procedure. Effective prototyping requires understanding which questions
to ask, when to ask them, and how to answer them.
Different types of prototypes are used in many different ways to address different
types of questions. Electronic prototypes are often used for simulation. They may be
subjected to finite element analysis, mass properties calculations, tolerance analysis,
assembly analysis, or motion analysis. Some prototypes are used for verification;
often analysis and simulation have been used make many design decisions, and
to
the prototype used to detect unanticipated
is problems. Some prototypes are used to
perform tests; they may be used for functional testing, customer perception testing,
life testing, assembly planning, etc. Other prototypes serve as crystal balls to
anticipate future problems; they may be used to prepare for tooling design, or to
compare the evolving product with customer needs.
Framework
Page 3
of them independently of physical part attributes, we chose to separate them from
other performance measures.
More formally, associated with each part, i, fabricated with a particular process, there
is an associated cost, c,, lead time, f,, and performance vector A,-. The performance
vector for the part and process is composed of the performance of the process with
respect to each of the attributes, ay , or
ai
A,=
an
For a given part, the attribute importance weighting vector, W, contains the
importance weightings for each of the attributes, or
The dot product of the performance vector and the transpose of the importance
vector yields the scalar part performance, pi
A,- WT = Pi
The determination of the appropriate weights in the importance vector is thus
crucial to the use of thismethod. Each department in an organization could
conceivably use a different weighting vector to determine jjerformance of a process
for its applications. A weighting vector might even be different for different parts
within the same department (e.g. a duct versus a bracket). The weighting vector
may vary with time as well; the vector used at the concept stage of development
would differ from that used during the pre-production phase. For example, a
Page 4
"breadboard" prototype intended only to verify a kinematic function might have an
associated weighting vector that emphasizes dimensional accuracy, while a pre-
production prototyp>e intended to test consumer response might have an associated
weighting vector that emphasizes surface finish.
In our study, we
determined the relevant performance attributes and the
importance weightings for a particular class of parts in a particular company. Then,
based on estimates of the time, cost, and p>erformance of four processes on over one
hundred parts, we were able to determine the average performances, costs, and
times for the processes. This information allows us to prescribe a prototyping
decision procedure for this particular set of attributes and importance weightings.
Focus
We focus on the prototyping of plastic piece parts. All of our data were gathered at
the Apparatus Division of the Eastman Kodak Company (KAD) in Rochester, New
York. Although product design involves a diverse set of prototyping applications,
processes, and needs, we focus on a particular class of prototyping problems in a
specific industrial setting in order to generate meaningful While the
results.
specific results are valid only for this setting, the methodology can be applied to
other types of parts and processes. Evaluating prototyping technologies for printed
circuit boards, metal shafts, or food products would require performance vectors
substantially different from those of plastic parts, but we believe the basic framework
would remain valid and useful.
The Parts
All of the parts used in our study were intended to be plastic in final production.
For over 85% of the parts, the final production process had been determined to be
injection molding. For the balance of the parts, the final process had not been
determined, or, in a few cases, other processes such as vacuum forming were to be
used. The parts were obtained from a database of parts at the stereolithography
laboratory at KAD, and were drawn from several types of products including
photocopiers, medical imaging equipment, and printers. The parts varied in
complexity, size, and shape. We believe that the part sample represents a uniform
distribution of part types for injection molded parts in medium volume products.
Figure 1 shows two typical parts from the sample.
The Processes
The study was based on four prototyping processes: computer-aided design solid
modeling (CAD), stereolithography (STL), computer numerically controlled
machining (CNC), and room temperature vulcanizing rubber molding (RM). It
should be noted that the processes are not entirely independent: STL and CNC
depend on a CAD model, and RM requires a master (often generated by STL or
CNC). The processes are described briefly below.
Page 5
Figure 1: Sample parts.
Page 6
CAD solid modeling. For our study, we assume that a part design exists; we base the
prototype cost and time performance for CAD on the resources required to translate
a defined design into a solid model. In many firms, solid modeling is becoming the
standard means of creating, representing, and storing design data [Hurt89, Stix91]; in
these settings, there would be no additional cost or time required to create a CAD
solid model for prototyping purposes. As a baseline case, we include only the
visualization and geometric reasoning capabilities of solid modeling. With enough
time and money, simulation and analysis packages can be used to understand
almost every performance aspect of a part without building a physical prototype. At
KAD these tools are typically used on only the most critical parts in a product. For
this reason, and because there is so much variability in both the available software
and in user skill, we confine our definition of CAD as a prototyping process to the
basic functionality of a solid modeler. In the final section of the paper we discuss a
set of dear opportunities for CAD to supplant physical prototyping.
Rubber Molding. Many plastic parts can be made by casting a polymer such as
polyurethane in a silicone rubber mold. This process involves first casting the
rubber mold around a part master and then filling the resulting mold cavity with
the desired part material. Molding compounds are available that approximate the
properties of manythermoplastics used in injection molding. At KAD, both CNC
and STI. are used to create the part master.
Page 7
What are the relative importances of these properties (i.e. What is
W)?
How well do the different processes perform with respect to these
importances (i.e. What are the values for the ay 's in A?)?
What are the lead times and costs for the processes (i.e. what are c and
0?
A User Survey of Prototyping Perceptions and Needs was used to identify critical
attributes. An Attribute Importance Survey was developed to establish the
importance of each attribute at various phases of development (the values of the
elements of W). A Process/Part Evaluation was designed to determine cost, lead
time, and process performance for each attribute (the values for c, t, and the
elements of A).
Based on the responses to this survey we identified the performance attributes given
column of Table 1. In order to simplify our presentation of the results,
in the right
we have aggregated the attributes into four higher-level categories.
Table 1: Performance Attributes Identified in the User Survey
aggregate attributes
Attribute Importance Survey
A written survey was sent to over 900 designers, engineers, tool-and instrument-
makers, and project managers at Eastman Kodak. 171 (18%) of the surveys were
returned. The survey asked each respondent to rate the importance of each of the
attributes in Table 1 at the concept, engineering, and pre-production phases of
development. At each phase, each attribute received a ranking from "unimportant"
to "very important." The survey also requested information about the respondents'
primary function (design, engineering, or management) and discipline (mechanical,
Of the 171 respondents, 143 identified themselves as
electrical, optical, etc.).
involved in a "mechanical" discipline, 12 specified "electrical," 7 specified "optical,"
and 1 1 specified "other." Of the 143 in the mechaiucal discipline, 52 specified that
"design" was their primary fimction, 63 specified "engineering," 18 specified
"management," and 9 indicated "other." The respondents were selected from a
mailing list of users of the Unigraphics CAD system at Eastman Kodak and from
personal contacts made by the authors. A copy of the survey is shown in Appendix
A. These data were used to establish the imp>ortance weighting vector for the study.
Process/Part Evaluation
txDmponents of cost
components of time
translation of generation of definition of tool design of mold
drawing or support path fabrication of
defined concept structures debugging of inserts, supports,
to CAD solid translation and program etc.
model manipulation of setup time fabrication of
build files runtime mold
build time hand finishing mold cure time
cure time and/or post pKJuring of part
hand finishing machining part cure time
where needed
A number of factors make estimating processing time and cost difficult. First, the
reliability and consistency of the estimator had to be established. In many
organizations estimating is still more art than science; often the estimators would
produce one estimate then start over as they realized a more elegant solution to the
fabrication problem. Second, we had to define where one process finished and
another started, and we had to define the "average" target level of performance for
each process. For example, a stereolithography part destined for the paper path of a
copier required more hand finishing time than a similar stereolithography part
designed to hold rolls of film. Third, the skill levels of the operators were also an
issue. Fourth, we often found variations within a given process; a given part can
often be fabricated by a given process a number of different ways. Finally, the
capacity utilization of a process determines the time a part will spend waiting for the
process. For the time estimates, we assumed that capacity utilization was low
enough that the queueing effects were negligible. This will only be true in
organizations that allocate enough capacity to prototyping that jobs move through
the shop without contending for resources.
Rather than spend a great deal of time calculating an exhaustive estimate with a
very tight margin of error, the estimators were instructed to maintain consistency
between parts; the accuracy of one part relative to another was more important than
the estimate for any given part. It should also be noted that the estimators were
explicitly told that they would not be held to their estimates (we tried to decouple
the estimating process from the organizational incentives within KAD). Also, the
estimators were familiar with many of the parts; in some cases they had fabricated
the parts within the past year.
For each part, one of us (Wall) rated performance in each attribute category on a
scale of to 1 . The basis for the rating was the answer to the question, "How well
does the prototype part approximate the production part?" In some cases, the
question was, "How much information does the prototype part tell about the
production part?" For some of the attributes [and for the CAD process] one question
makes more sense than the other. A score of 1 meant that the prototype part
matched the production part for that attribute (or that the prototype part provided as
much information as the production part). For example. Tables 3a & 3b show the
estimates for and evaluation of the two sample parts in Figure 1.
Page 10
Table 3a: Example of Estimates
(times in hoursrminutes)
3. RESULTS
Summary of Results
The results of the study are summarized in Figures 2-10. Figure 2 shows the
importance of each aggregate prototype attribute based on replies to the Attribute
Importance Survey. (The individual attributes that make up the aggregate attributes
shown in Table 2 are listed in Table 1.) Note that the importance of each attribute
increases as the project progresses and that time was rated most important at every
phase of product development. As expected, there are differences in the
importances indicated by the respondents. There is also some difference in the
mean responses among respondents who classified themselves as "engineering" or
"design" and those who claimed "management." Depending on the goals of the
prototyping evaluation process, a weighting vector could be defined for a single
individual or for a particular group of individuals. For presentation purposes, we
created a weighting vector by averaging all of the responses. The resulting vector is
W^ = [o.73 0.74 0.53 0.49] for the attributes strength /stiffness, dimensional accuracy,
appearance, and material properties other than strength and stiffness.
The results of the lead timeestimates from the Process /Part Evaluation are shown
in Figure 3 for a lot size of 1 and
in Figure 4 for a lot size of 25. The results of the
cost estimates from the Part/Process Evaluation are shown in Figures 5 for a lot size
of 1 and in Figure 6 for a lot size of 25. Note that the horizontal axes in figures 3
through 7 do not represent continuous variables, rather they are part numbers 1
through 104 evenly spaced along the horizontal axis. The values for each process
are connected together by lines to make the data legible and not to suggest a
continuous function. The data in figures 3 through 7 were all sorted in order of
increasing lead time for the CNC process and a lot size of 1. Lead time to fabricate a
single part for each of the processes depended loosely upon part complexity (where
complexity was related to the number of geometric primitives needed to define the
part) and so the parts are roughly ordered in terms of increasing complexity.
The performances for each part and process are plotted in Figure 7. The
scalar part
scalar performance of each part was calculated using a performance vector (A), based
on tiie attributes in Table 1, and the weighting vector, W^ = [0.73 0.74 0.53 0.49],
derived from the Attribute Importance Survey. The data were sorted as in Figures
3-6.
Averaging of the part performances for each process yields the average process
performance results shown in Figure 8. For each process, the time and cost scores
are normalized values relative to the other processes, where 1 is fastest /least
expensive and is slowest /most expensive. Time and cost ratings are for a lot size
ofl.
Page 12
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0.6
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0.4
O pre-prod
D engineering
0.2
O concept
strength/ form
lumi appearance naterial
m--'^'"" time cost
stiffness accuracy properties
(other than
strength &
Page 13
RM(CNC)
i
i
; ,, RM(STL)
'
I 1 '.
part
500 M(CNC)
,,^
/ RM(STL)
400 -
, STL
300
V , CNC
Of
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Page 14
10000
RM(CNC)
CNC
RM(STL)
I
V /: (. ,- STL
CAD
part
1000
800
^600
400
u
RM(CNC)
200
RM(STL)
part
Page 15
1 -I
0.9
0.8
60
c 0.7
at
- 0.6 H
0.5
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-L^
strength/ form appearance material time cost
stiffness accuracy properties
(other than
strength k. stiffness)
?age 16
Finally, Figures 9 and 10 illustrate the quantitative relative time- and cost-
p>erformance of each process based on lot sizes of 1 and 25. Note that becavise the
relative ordering of the cost and time values for each of the processes is roughly the
same regardless of the parts (indicated by infrequent crossing of the process lines in
figures 3 through 6), the large standard deviations in figures 9 and 10 do not imply
an inability to predict relative overall process performance. Rather, a part costing
substantially less than the mean to produce by STL v^ll likely also cost substantially
less than the mean to produce by CNC.
Interpretation of Results
Table 4 summarizes the process decisions for a small set of decision drivers. The
table uses time, cost, the four aggregate attributes, and lot size as the factors that
determine which process to use. Each entry in the table was made by (1) narrowing
the set of possible processes to those that will perform well with respect to a critical
attribute (using Figure 8), and (2) determining the best time or cost performance for
the appropriate lot size (using Figures 9 & 10). The parenthesized entries in the
"form accuracy" row indicate the preferred process if a physical part is required. In
some cases either STL or CNC would be the "preferred" process; whereas the
average values indicated one process, the standard deviations were large enough to
suggest that the other might be a viable alternative. In these cases alternatives are
provided in parentheses.
Page 17
500 3500
RM(CNC)
RM(CNC)
RM(STL) 3000
400
()
2500
CNC ()
RM(STL)
>^
i;? 300
3 2000
O
Vi
STL
(A
O
T3
TO
1500
200 STL
CNC
\
1000
RM(CNC)
RM(CNC)
RM(STL)
100
() RM(STL)
C)
CAD(|) CNC
C)
CNC 500
STL STL C) C)
CAD
Figitre 9: Mean and Standard Deviation of Figure 10: Mean and Standard Deviation of
Process Lead Times Process Costs
Page 18
Table 4: Preferred Prototyping Processes Based on Results.
critical attribute
labor cost issues in design decision making. The time suggests that
criticality of
firms should maintain enough prototyping capacity that queueing delays do not
influence the lead time of the product. Justifying the associated capital outlay is
difficult without some explicit estimate of the value of prototyping lead time to the
organization.
Rapid is a relative term for prototyping. The promise of instant models from CAD
data is still largely unfulfilled. The average lead time to acquire a physical prototype
from stereolithography was 9.3 hours for our part sample, assuming that there was
no queue for the stereolithography machine. However, in general STL parts can not
be used in functional tests because of the relatively poor material properties of the
stereolithography resins. The average time to acquire a part with good stiength and
stiffness properties was 24.2 hours (CNC machining). TTiis can be as long as three
calendar days for a one-shift prototype shop.
Processes tend to perform better on simple parts than complex parts. This result is
intuitive but because we have not displayed the geometry of each of the 104 parts, it
is not clear from the presentation of our data. In general, the differences between
processes were greater than the differences in time, cost, and performance between
parts. (In fact, this is what allows us to make the part-independent
recommendations in table 4.) Nevertheless, simpler parts (measured by the
number of geometric primitives in the CAD file) in general obtained higher
performance ratings. One implication of this observation is that part designers
might consider simplifying or tailoring part geometry in anticipation of prototyping
requirements. A related idea was suggested for analysis tools in [Suri89] and seems
equally appropriate for prototyping.
Page 20
integrated into the design process, a rough-cut prototyping process evaluation
system could be a powerful tool for the designer, engineer, and manager. A
computerized implementation may be imagined as follows. As the project is
irutiated, attributes and importances are defined and agreed upon for different
classes of parts. Decisions about the number of prototypes that will be required at
various stages of the process are established. This information can be used to
inform the designer what the recommended prototyping process is and what the
associated time, cost, and performance measures for the current part or assembly are.
The designer could then add this information to the information available for other
evaluation criteria in order to make better detailed part design decisions. As the
needs of the project evolve, the project team might change the desired lot sizes or
call for re-evaluation of attribute importances. Such a tool would fit naturally into a
group design environment utilizing comprehensive, interactive design software.
Improving Prototyping Processes
Figures 11 and 12 and Table 5 summarize the process cost and time components for
CNC, STL, and RM. Along with the average process p>erformance results shown in
Figure 8, these results help to focus prototyping process development. Note that in
this case the STL and CNC figures do not include the time or cost to create a CAD
model and the RM figures do not include the time or cost to fabricate a master.
Note that the lead times for 25 parts could be reduced substantially in some cases by
parallel processing. For example, if the parts are small enough, more than one can
be built simultaneously on the SLA500 platform. Or, if more than one master is
available, multiple parts can be molded simultaneously.
STL CNC RM
1 part 9.3 24.2 59.2
Each of the processes has weaknesses and could benefit immensely from research
and development. The figures illuminate important areas for process development:
Nearly 50% of the time to fabricate one CNC part is programming
time. If that is reduced (by automated generation of cutter paths, for
example) then CNC becomes even more useful as a prototyping tool.
STL performs very where material properties
well on average except
are critical; An improvement in
the available resins are too limited.
resins would immediately make STL the dominant prototyping
technology for plastic parts.
CAD is very fast and has high geometrical accuracy. But, it falls short
in evaluating strength, stiffness, and other material properties. We
did not assess finite element analysis methods of prototyping which
address some of these weaknesses. However, the state-of-the-art in
Page 21
simulation an inadequate substitute for a physical model.
is still
small scale production. But the process is slow. There is a dear need
for either fast-curing polymers or for technologies that allow
thermoplastics to be molded from quickly-procured tooling.
Developments in spray metal tooling may eventually enable the
fabrication of batches of 100 plastic parts relatively quickly [Weiss90].
Page 22
generate support
tructures
finish part
prepare files for build
generate build files
20001
M machine
1500
D materials finish part
build fixture
program
cost
per
part 1000
($)
setup/debug
fabricate inserts
pour part
qty: 1 25 1 25 1 25
STL CNC RM
cure mold
Page 23
5. REFERENCES
"Ford Finds New Formula For Prototypes." Mechanical Engineering, April 1990, pp
32-33.
Fitzgerald, Karen, "Compressing the Design Cycle." IEEE Spectrum, October 1987,
pp 39-42.
Suri, Rajan and Masami Shimizu, 'TDesign for Analysis: A New Strategy to
Improve the Design Process." Research in Engineering Design, 1989, 1:105-
120.
Ulrich, Karl et al, "A Framework for Including the Value of Time in Design-for-
Manufacturing Decision Making," MIT Sloan School of Management
Working Paper #3243-91-MSA, February 1991.
Page 24
6. APPENDIX A - THE ATTRIBUTE IMPORTANCE SURVEY
Name: ^^^1^
'^"V.Tn"^
Matthew Wall
I^ate: 2-4-EP mail code: 35326
LoB:
Primary Function (choose one): Primary Discipline (choose one):
O engineering O mechanical
O design O electrical
O management O optical
O other O other
At what stage(s) of the product development cycle are you involved with prototype
design, fabrication, or assembly?
O concept development
O product engineering
O pre-production
APR. 25 1c 35
^ Gta'ff
Lib-26-67
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