Queensland Gas Scheme Case Study - Short-Run Marginal Cost of Gen

This file presents the input data and methodologies adopted to

calculate the short run marginal cost (SRMC) of generators for the
Queensland Gas Scheme (QGS) case study.

Futher details the methodology framework, inputs and rationale

behind the assumptions adopted, please refer to OBPR's Findings,
Methodology, Inputs and Assumptions Queensland Gas Scheme
Case Study.
Marginal Cost of Generators

Worksheet Descriptions
Worksheet Name
Accredited Gens

Technical Parameters

Fuel Cost

Emission Permit
Pricing

Historical Generation

Capacity Factors

Weightings for SRMC

Calculation of SRMC
 Generators

Descriptions
Description
Information on gas-fired generators accredited under the QGS as at 2012 liable year
Technical information on existing scheduled and semi-scheduled coal and gas turbine generators in
Queensland
Fuel costs of existing scheduled and semi-scheduled coal and gas turbine generators in
Queensland

CO2-e emission permit price trajectory (real 2013-14 $/tCO 2-e)

Historical generation of existing scheduled and semi-scheduled coal and gas turbine generators in
Queensland
Calculation of the average capacity factor (ACF) of each generator
Calculation of the weightings assigned to the short-run marginal cost (SRMC) of individual
generators

Calculation of the difference between the weighted average SRMC of coal and gas-fired generation
 Accredited Generators Under the QGS as at 2012 liable year

Generators
Scheduled Generators
1 Braemar 1
2 Braemar 2
3 Condamine
4 Darling Downs
5 Oakey
6 Roma
7 Swanbank E
8 Townsville GT (Yabulu)
Non Scheduled Generators
9 Daandine
Generators located on isolated networks or supplying electrcity for on-site use
10 Ballera Gas Plant Power Station
11 Bulwer Island Co-generation Plant
12 Cannington Mine Power Station
13 Dyno Nobel Moranbah Power Station
14 QNP Power Station
15 Osborne Mine Power Station
16 Mica Creek Power Station
17 Xstrata Power Station
18 Moranbah Generating Plant
19 Phosphate Hill Generating Plant
20 QAL Co-generation Plant
21 Yarwun Power Station
22 QNI Yabulu Refinery Co-generation Plant
23 Tarbat Gas Plant Power Station
24 KR Castlemaine Cogena

Note:
1 a It is assumed that KR Castlemaine Cogen is a generator which generate electricty for on-si

Source:
1 Queensland Government, Department of Energy and Water Supply (DEWS) (2013), 'Queens
Year Annual Report', Brisbane, viewed September 2013,
<http://www.business.qld.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/9198/2012-annual-report.pdf>
2 Australian Energy Market Operator, (AEMO) (2013b), 'Generation Information', Melbourne, v
<http://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/Planning/Related-Information/Generation-Information>
3 Queensland Government, Queensland Government Gazette, Vol 363, No 37, page 500
he QGS as at 2012 liable year

Installed Capacity (MW)

enerators
504
519
144
644.5
281.8
80
385
244
Generators
33.44
or supplying electrcity for on-site use
49.95
30.24
35.63
21
10.4
22.25
325
30
12.56
46.1
13
160
12.5
5.5
Not Available

is a generator which generate electricty for on-site use given that it is not registered with the Australia Electr

nergy and Water Supply (DEWS) (2013), 'Queensland Gas Scheme 2012 Liable
ember 2013,
sets/pdf_file/0009/9198/2012-annual-report.pdf>.
) (2013b), 'Generation Information', Melbourne, viewed November 2013,
ing/Related-Information/Generation-Information>.
ernment Gazette, Vol 363, No 37, page 500
ed with the Australia Electrcity Market Operator (AEMO).
Technical Parameters of Existing Scheduled or Semi Scheduled Coal and Gas-Fired Ge

NTNDP Installed
Station Plant
Zone Capacity (MW)

NQ Collinsville COLNSV_1
NQ Collinsville COLNSV_2
NQ Collinsville COLNSV_3 190
NQ Collinsville COLNSV_4
NQ Collinsville COLNSV_5
CQ Callide B CALL_B_1
700
CQ Callide B CALL_B_2
CQ Callide Power Plant (Callide C) CPP_3
900
CQ Callide Power Plant (Callide C) CPP_4
CQ Gladstone GSTONE1
CQ Gladstone GSTONE2
CQ Gladstone GSTONE3
1680
CQ Gladstone GSTONE4
CQ Gladstone GSTONE5
CQ Gladstone GSTONE6
CQ Stanwell STAN-1
CQ Stanwell STAN-2
1460
CQ Stanwell STAN-3
CQ Stanwell STAN-4
SWQ Kogan Creek Kogan 744
SWQ Millmerran MPP_1
852
SWQ Millmerran MPP_2
SWQ Tarong TARONG1
SWQ Tarong TARONG2
1400
SWQ Tarong TARONG3
SWQ Tarong TARONG4
SWQ Tarong North TNPS1 450

NQ Townsville GT (Yabulu) TOWNSV1

244
NQ Townsville GT (Yabulu) TOWNSV2

CQ Barcaldinea BARCALDN 55

SEQ Swanbank E SWAN_E 385

SWQ Condamine Condamine

Condamine
SWQ Condamine 144
GT2
 144

Condamine
SWQ Condamine
ST

SWQ Darling Downs DDPS1_GT1

SWQ Darling Downs DDPS1_GT2

644.5
SWQ Darling Downs DDPS1_GT3

SWQ Darling Downs DDPS1_ST

NQ Mackayb (Mackay GT) MACKAYGT 34

SWQ Braemar 1 Braemar11

SWQ Braemar 1 Braemar12 504

SWQ Braemar 1 Braemar13

SWQ Braemar 2 Braemar21

SWQ Braemar 2 Braemar22 519

SWQ Braemar 2 Braemar23

SWQ Oakey OAKEY1

281.8
SWQ Oakey OAKEY2

SWQ Roma ROMA_7

80
SWQ Roma ROMA_8

Note:
1a&b
Barcaldine and Mackay Stations are not accredited generatos under the QGS as at 2012
2 * Technical parameters of non-scheduled generators are not available
3 * To convert thermal efficiency (%, in MWh (sent-out)/MWh(Fuel)) to thermal efficiency on a sent

Thermal Efficiency on a sent-out basis (in GJ/MWh) = 3.6/Thermal Efficiency (%

3.6 is the coversion factor where 1MWh = 3.6GJ

Source:
1 ACIL Tasman, (ACIL) (2012), 'Development of an emission intensity index for the NEM, Melbourn
source/market-data/emissions-intensity-index/wem_eii_acil_tasman_report.pdf?sfvrsn=2>.
2 Australian Energy Market Operator, (AEMO) (2013c), 'Planning Studies 2013 Consultation, Existi
<http://www.aemo.com.au/Consultations/National-Electricity-Market/Planning-Studies-2013-Con
ed Coal and Gas-Fired Generators in Queensland

Approximate
Generation Fuel Cost Min Gen
Fuel Year
Type Profile (% of capacity)
Commissioned

Black Coal Black Coal Collinsville 1998 40.0%

Black Coal Black Coal Collinsville 1998 40.0%
Black Coal Black Coal Collinsville 1998 40.0%
Black Coal Black Coal Collinsville 1998 40.0%
Black Coal Black Coal Collinsville 1998 40.0%
Black Coal Black Coal Callide B & C 1989 50.0%
Black Coal Black Coal Callide B & C 1989 50.0%
Black Coal Black Coal Callide B & C 2001 50.0%
Black Coal Black Coal Callide B & C 2001 50.0%
Black Coal Black Coal Gladstone 1980 40.0%
Black Coal Black Coal Gladstone 1980 40.0%
Black Coal Black Coal Gladstone 1980 40.0%
Black Coal Black Coal Gladstone 1980 40.0%
Black Coal Black Coal Gladstone 1980 40.0%
Black Coal Black Coal Gladstone 1980 40.0%
Black Coal Black Coal Stanwell 1995 50.0%
Black Coal Black Coal Stanwell 1995 50.0%
Black Coal Black Coal Stanwell 1995 50.0%
Black Coal Black Coal Stanwell 1995 50.0%
Black Coal Black Coal Kogan Creek 2007 50.0%
Black Coal Black Coal Millmerran 2002 40.0%
Black Coal Black Coal Millmerran 2002 40.0%
Black Coal Black Coal Tarong 1985 50.0%
Black Coal Black Coal Tarong 1985 50.0%
Black Coal Black Coal Tarong 1985 50.0%
Black Coal Black Coal Tarong 1985 50.0%
Black Coal Black Coal Tarong 2002 50.0%
Coal Seam
CCGT Townsville 2005 0.0%
Methane
Coal Seam
CCGT Townsville 2005 0.0%
Methane
Natural Gas
CCGT Barcaldine 1996 0.0%
Pipeline
Coal Seam
CCGT Swanbank E 2002 0.0%
Methane
Coal Seam
CCGT Condamine 2009 0.0%
Methane
Coal Seam
CCGT Condamine 2009 0.0%
Methane
 Coal Seam
CCGT Condamine 2009 0.0%
Methane
Coal Seam
CCGT Darling Downs 2010 0.0%
Methane
Coal Seam
CCGT Darling Downs 2010 0.0%
Methane
Coal Seam
CCGT Darling Downs 2010 0.0%
Methane
Coal Seam
CCGT Darling Downs 2010 0.0%
Methane
Liquid Fuel
OCGT Diesel 1975 0.0%
(Mackay)

OCGT Coal Seam Braemar 2006 0.0%

Methane

OCGT Coal Seam Braemar 2006 0.0%

Methane

OCGT Coal Seam Braemar 2006 0.0%

Methane

OCGT Coal Seam Braemar 2 2009 0.0%

Methane

OCGT Coal Seam Braemar 2 2009 0.0%

Methane

OCGT Coal Seam Braemar 2 2009 0.0%

Methane
OCGT Diesel Oakey 2000 0.0%
OCGT Diesel Oakey 2000 0.0%

OCGT Natural Gas Roma 1999 0.0%

Pipeline

OCGT Natural Gas Roma 1999 0.0%

Pipeline

der the QGS as at 2012

thermal efficiency on a sent-out basis (in GJ/MWh), the following formula is adopted:

3.6/Thermal Efficiency (%, in MWh (sent-out)/MWh(Fuel))

actor where 1MWh = 3.6GJ

ndex for the NEM, Melbourne, viewed September 2013, <http://www.imowa.com.au/docs/default-

_report.pdf?sfvrsn=2>.

es 2013 Consultation, Existing Generation Data', Melbourne, viewed September 2013,

/Planning-Studies-2013-Consultation>.
 VOM (real Fugitive Combustion
FOM Emission Emission Percentage
Auxiliary 2013-14
(real 2013-14 Factor (kg Factor (kg of emissions
load (%) $/MWh
$/MW/year) CO2-e/GJ) CO2-e/GJ) captured (%)
sent-out)

8.0% 71537.84 1.45 2.00 89.40 0.00%

8.0% 71537.84 1.45 2.00 89.40 0.00%
8.0% 71537.84 1.45 2.00 89.40 0.00%
8.0% 71537.84 1.45 2.00 89.40 0.00%
8.0% 71537.84 1.45 2.00 89.40 0.00%
7.0% 54478.82 1.31 2.00 95.81 0.00%
7.0% 54478.82 1.31 2.00 95.81 0.00%
4.8% 54478.82 1.31 2.00 95.00 0.00%
4.8% 54478.82 1.31 2.00 95.00 0.00%
5.0% 57230.28 1.31 2.00 92.10 0.00%
5.0% 57230.28 1.31 2.00 92.10 0.00%
5.0% 57230.28 1.31 2.00 92.10 0.00%
5.0% 57230.28 1.31 2.00 92.10 0.00%
5.0% 57230.28 1.31 2.00 92.10 0.00%
5.0% 57230.28 1.31 2.00 92.10 0.00%
7.0% 53928.53 1.31 2.00 90.40 0.00%
7.0% 53928.53 1.31 2.00 90.40 0.00%
7.0% 53928.53 1.31 2.00 90.40 0.00%
7.0% 53928.53 1.31 2.00 90.40 0.00%
8.0% 52827.95 1.38 2.00 87.15 0.00%
4.5% 52827.95 1.31 2.00 92.00 0.00%
4.5% 52827.95 1.31 2.00 92.00 0.00%
8.0% 54478.82 1.57 2.00 92.10 0.00%
8.0% 54478.82 1.57 2.00 92.10 0.00%
8.0% 54478.82 1.57 2.00 92.10 0.00%
8.0% 54478.82 1.57 2.00 92.10 0.00%
5.0% 52827.95 1.57 2.00 92.10 0.00%

3.0% 34118.05 1.16 5.40 51.30 0.00%

3.0% 34118.05 1.16 5.40 51.30 0.00%

3.0% 27514.56 2.64 5.40 51.30 0.00%

3.0% 34118.05 1.16 5.40 51.30 0.00%

3.0% 34118.05 1.16 2.00 51.30 0.00%

3.0% 34118.04 1.15 2.00 51.30 0.00%

 3.0% 34118.04 1.15 2.00 51.30 0.00%

6.0% 34118.05 1.16 2.00 51.30 0.00%

6.0% 34118.05 1.16 2.00 51.30 0.00%

6.0% 34118.05 1.16 2.00 51.30 0.00%

6.0% 34118.05 1.16 2.00 51.30 0.00%

3.0% 14307.57 9.96 5.30 69.70 0.00%

2.5% 14307.57 8.73 5.40 51.30 0.00%

2.5% 14307.57 8.73 5.40 51.30 0.00%

2.5% 14307.57 8.73 5.40 51.30 0.00%

2.5% 14307.57 8.73 5.40 51.30 0.00%

2.5% 14307.57 8.73 5.40 51.30 0.00%

2.5% 14307.57 8.73 5.40 51.30 0.00%

3.0% 14307.57 10.58 5.40 51.30 0.00%

3.0% 14307.57 10.58 5.40 51.30 0.00%

3.0% 14307.57 10.58 5.40 51.30 0.00%

3.0% 14307.57 10.58 5.40 51.30 0%

.au/docs/default-

2013,
 Thermal
Thermal Efficiency
Efficiency on a
(%, in MWh (sent-
sent-out basis
out)/MWh(Fuel))
(in GJ/MWh)

13.00 27.70%
13.00 27.70%
13.00 27.70%
13.00 27.70%
13.00 27.70%
10.57 34.06%
10.57 34.06%
9.47 38.00%
9.47 38.00%
11.37 31.67%
11.37 31.67%
11.37 31.67%
11.37 31.67%
11.37 31.67%
11.37 31.67%
9.89 36.40%
9.89 36.40%
9.89 36.40%
9.89 36.40%
10.32 34.89%
9.60 37.50%
9.60 37.50%
9.94 36.20%
9.94 36.20%
9.94 36.20%
9.94 36.20%
9.18 39.20%

7.83 46.00%

7.83 46.00%

9.00 40.00%

7.66 47.00%

7.50 48.00%

7.50 48.00%
7.50 48.00%

7.83 46.00%

7.83 46.00%

7.83 46.00%

7.83 46.00%

12.86 28.00%

12.00 30.00%

12.00 30.00%

12.00 30.00%

12.00 30.00%

12.00 30.00%

12.00 30.00%

11.04 32.60%
11.04 32.60%

12.00 30.00%

12.00 30%
Fuel Costs for Existing Scheduled Coal and Gas-Fired Generators in Queensland

Planning Scenario (PS)

Generation Fuel Cost (real 20
NTNDP Zone Fuel Profile
Type 2013-14 2014-15
Black Coal NQ Collinsville 2.32 2.31
Black Coal CQ Callide B & C 1.46 1.45
Black Coal CQ Gladstone 1.73 1.72
Black Coal CQ Stanwell 1.54 1.54
Black Coal SWQ Kogan Creek 0.83 0.83
Black Coal SWQ Millmerran 0.94 0.94
Black Coal SWQ Tarong 1.11 1.19
CCGT NQ Townsville 4.43 4.42
CCGT CQ Barcaldine 7.26 7.24
CCGT SEQ Swanbank E 3.83 3.83
CCGT SWQ Condamine 1.47 1.47
CCGT SWQ Darling Downs 3.76 3.76
OCGT NQ Liquid Fuel (Mackay) 33.17 33.17
OCGT SWQ Braemar 2.94 2.94
OCGT SWQ Braemar 2 3.18 3.18
OCGT SWQ Oakey 4.63 4.62
OCGT SWQ Roma 5.14 4.63
Slow Rate of Growth Scenario (SRC)
Generation Fuel Cost (real 20
NTNDP Zone Fuel Profile
Type 2013-14 2014-15
Black Coal NQ Collinsville 2.32 2.31
Black Coal CQ Callide B & C 1.46 1.45
Black Coal CQ Gladstone 1.73 1.72
Black Coal CQ Stanwell 1.54 1.54
Black Coal SWQ Kogan Creek 0.83 0.83
Black Coal SWQ Millmerran 0.94 0.94
Black Coal SWQ Tarong 1.11 1.19
CCGT NQ Townsville 4.43 4.42
CCGT CQ Barcaldine 7.26 7.24
CCGT SEQ Swanbank E 3.83 3.83
CCGT SWQ Condamine 1.47 1.47
CCGT SWQ Darling Downs 3.76 3.76
OCGT NQ Liquid Fuel (Mackay) 33.17 33.17
OCGT SWQ Braemar 2.94 2.94
OCGT SWQ Braemar 2 3.18 3.18
OCGT SWQ Oakey 4.63 4.62
OCGT SWQ Roma 4.60 4.12

Inputs from Australian Energy Market Operator's (AEMO) 2013 Planning Assumption

Fuel Costs for Existing Plant

 Generation Fuel Cost (real 20
NTNDP Zone Fuel Profile
Type 2013-14 2014-15
Black Coal NQ Collinsville 2.32 2.31
Black Coal CQ Callide B & C 1.46 1.45
Black Coal CQ Gladstone 1.73 1.72
Black Coal CQ Stanwell 1.54 1.54
Black Coal SWQ Kogan Creek 0.83 0.83
Black Coal SWQ Millmerran 0.94 0.94
Black Coal SWQ Tarong 1.11 1.19
CCGT NQ Townsville 4.43 4.42
CCGT CQ Barcaldine 7.26 7.24
CCGT SEQ Swanbank E 3.83 3.83
CCGT SWQ Condamine 1.47 1.47
CCGT SWQ Darling Downs 3.76 3.76
OCGT NQ Liquid Fuel (Mackay) 33.17 33.17
OCGT SWQ Braemar 2.94 2.94
OCGT SWQ Braemar 2 3.18 3.18
OCGT SWQ Oakey 4.63 4.62
OCGT SWQ Roma

Note:
1 A blank value indicates the that fuel price reverts to the same prices faced by new entrants (s

Fuel Costs for New Plants

Planning Scenario (PS)

Generation Fuel Cost (real 20
NTNDP Zone Fuel Profile
Type 2013-14 2014-15
Black Coal NQ New_BlackCoal 2.48 2.47
Black Coal CQ New_BlackCoal 2.30 2.13
Black Coal SWQ New_BlackCoal 2.12 2.00
CCGT NQ New_CCGT 3.34 3.33
CCGT CQ New_CCGT 5.38 4.74
CCGT SEQ New_CCGT 4.71 4.16
CCGT SWQ New_CCGT 4.11 3.71
OCGT NQ New_OCGT 4.17 4.17
OCGT CQ New_OCGT 6.73 5.93
OCGT SEQ New_OCGT 5.89 5.20
OCGT SWQ New_OCGT 5.14 4.63
Slow Rate of Change Scenario (SRC)
Generation Fuel Cost (real 20
NTNDP Zone Fuel Profile
Type 2013-14 2014-15
Black Coal NQ New_BlackCoal 2.47 2.46
Black Coal CQ New_BlackCoal 1.83 1.70
Black Coal SWQ New_BlackCoal 1.86 1.83
CCGT NQ New_CCGT 3.09 3.09
CCGT CQ New_CCGT 4.95 4.33
CCGT SEQ New_CCGT 4.28 3.75
 CCGT SWQ New_CCGT 3.68 3.30
OCGT NQ New_OCGT 3.86 3.86
OCGT CQ New_OCGT 6.19 5.42
OCGT SEQ New_OCGT 5.35 4.69
OCGT SWQ New_OCGT 4.60 4.12

Source:
1 Australian Energy Market Operator, (AEMO) (2013c), 'Planning Studies 2013 Consultation, Exis
Generation Data', Melbourne, viewed September 2013, <http://www.aemo.com.au/Consultatio
Studies-2013-Consultation>.
n Queensland

)
Fuel Cost (real 2013-14 $/GJ)
2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
2.39 2.33 2.30
1.45 1.45 1.44
1.72 1.72 1.71
1.54 1.53 1.53
0.82 0.82 0.83
0.93 0.93 0.93
1.16 1.13 1.16
4.41 4.41 4.39
5.80 7.71 7.91
3.85 7.64 7.88
1.47 1.47 1.47
3.76 3.76 7.44
33.17 33.17 33.17
2.94 2.94 3.79
3.18 3.18 3.18
6.60 8.99 9.30
6.60 8.99 9.30
o (SRC)
Fuel Cost (real 2013-14 $/GJ)
2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
2.39 2.33 2.30
1.45 1.45 1.44
1.72 1.72 1.71
1.54 1.53 1.53
0.82 0.82 0.83
0.93 0.93 0.93
1.16 1.13 1.16
4.41 4.41 4.39
5.28 7.07 7.30
3.85 7.06 7.27
1.47 1.47 1.47
3.76 3.76 6.83
33.17 33.17 33.17
2.94 2.94 3.79
3.18 3.18 3.18
5.95 8.26 8.53
5.95 8.26 8.53

nning Assumptions
Fuel Cost (real 2013-14 $/GJ)
2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
2.39 2.33 2.30
1.45 1.45 1.44
1.72 1.72 1.71
1.54 1.53 1.53
0.82 0.82 0.83
0.93 0.93 0.93
1.16 1.13 1.16
4.41 4.41 4.39

3.85
1.47 1.47 1.47
3.76 3.76
33.17 33.17 33.17
2.94 2.94 3.79
3.18 3.18 3.18

by new entrants (see the 'Fuel Costs for New Plants')

)
Fuel Cost (real 2013-14 $/GJ)
2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
2.47 2.46 2.45
1.96 1.81 1.71
1.91 1.84 1.82
5.57 7.47 7.72
5.80 7.71 7.91
5.73 7.64 7.88
5.28 7.19 7.44
6.96 9.34 9.64
7.25 9.64 9.88
7.16 9.55 9.86
6.60 8.99 9.30
o (SRC)
Fuel Cost (real 2013-14 $/GJ)
2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
2.45 2.44 2.42
1.62 1.55 1.52
1.82 1.81 1.81
5.05 6.89 7.10
5.28 7.07 7.30
5.21 7.06 7.27
 4.76 6.61 6.83
6.31 8.62 8.88
6.60 8.84 9.12
6.51 8.82 9.09
5.95 8.26 8.53

3 Consultation, Existing Generation Data, New Entry

.com.au/Consultations/National-Electricity-Market/Planning-
 CO2-e Emission Permit Price Trajectory

Real 2012-13 $/tCO2-e

Year
Treasury Core Treasury High Zero
2013-14 23.6 23.6 23.6
2014-15 24.2 24.2 24.2
2015-16 27.1 56.7 0
2016-17 28.2 59 0
2017-18 29.5 61.9 0

Real 2013-14 $/tCO2-e

Year
Treasury Core Treasury High Zero
2013-14 24.2 24.2 24.2
2014-15 24.8 24.8 24.8
2015-16 27.8 58.1 0.0
2016-17 28.9 60.5 0.0
2017-18 30.2 63.4 0.0

Note:
1 CO2-e emission permit prices utilised in this analysis is line with the permit prices adopted unde
2 Planning Scenario's (PS) CO2-e emission permit prices is based on the Treasury Core scenario.
3 Slow Rate of Change Scenario's (SRC) CO 2-e emission permit prices is based on the Zero scenari

Source:
1
Australian Energy Market Operator, (AEMO) (2012e), '2012 NTNDP Assumptions and Inputs, Mo
and Data 2012 - v3', Melbourne, viewed September 2013, <http://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity
of-previous-Planning-reports/2012-National-Transmission-Network-Development-Plan/Assumptio
 Assumption Value

Inflation (CPI) 2.5%

prices adopted under AEMOs 2012 NTNDP.

ury Core scenario.
d on the Zero scenario.

tions and Inputs, Modelling Assumptions

mo.com.au/Electricity/Planning/Archive-
ment-Plan/Assumptions-and-Inputs>.
 Comments

A long-term inflation rate at the mid-point of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) targeted inflation
band has been adopted throughout this analysis. While near-term forecasts are available from the
RBA and Australian Treasury for the Consumer Price Index (CPI), a single long-term value is
preferable to simplify the analysis. The rate of 2.5% is in line with the Australian Treasury's (AT 201
forecast of underlying inflation in its latest Mid-year Economic and Fiscal Outlook report for 2012-13

012 NTNDP.
 Historical Generation for Existing Scheduled or Semi Scheduled Coal and Gas-Fired

NTNDP
Station Generation Type
Zone
NQ Collinsville Black Coal
CQ Callide B Black Coal
CQ Callide Power Plant (Callide C) Black Coal
CQ Gladstone Black Coal
CQ Stanwell Black Coal
SWQ Kogan Creek Black Coal
SWQ Millmerran Black Coal
SWQ Tarong Black Coal
SWQ Tarong North Black Coal

NQ Townsville GT (Yabulu) CCGT

CQ Barcaldinea CCGT

SEQ Swanbank E CCGT

SWQ Condamine CCGT

SWQ Darling Downs CCGT

NQ Mackayb (Mackay GT) OCGT

SWQ Braemar 1 OCGT

SWQ Braemar 2 OCGT

SWQ Oakey OCGT

SWQ Roma OCGT

Note:
1 The dashes in the table indicate that the generator was not registered in the NEM during that fi

Source:
1 Australian Energy Market Operator, (AEMO) (2013a), 'NEM-wide Historical Information Report',
September 2013, <http://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/Planning/Related-Information/Historica
Report>.
Scheduled Coal and Gas-Fired Generators in Queensland

Installed Capacity Annual Sent-Out Historical Generation (MWh)

Fuel
(MW) 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
Black Coal 190 536,000 390,000 465,000 214,000
Black Coal 700 3,857,000 4,815,000 3,262,000 4,003,000
Black Coal 900 5,929,000 5,797,000 5,101,000 5,020,000
Black Coal 1,680 7,975,000 7,255,000 6,275,000 7,344,000
Black Coal 1,460 8,469,000 8,708,000 6,868,000 7,333,000
Black Coal 744 5,291,000 4,742,000 5,538,000 4,697,000
Black Coal 852 6,199,000 6,300,000 6,359,000 5,907,000
Black Coal 1,400 7,732,000 7,840,000 7,399,000 6,962,000
Black Coal 450 3,233,000 2,318,000 3,409,000 2,752,000
Coal Seam
244 1,151,000 1,384,000 921,000 835,000
Methane
Natural Gas
55 2,000 3,000 6,000 13,000
Pipeline
Coal Seam
385 2,209,000 2,054,000 2,249,000 2,106,000
Methane
Coal Seam
144 - 297,000 692,000 586,000
Methane
Coal Seam
644.5 - 823,000 2,937,000 3,268,000
Methane
Diesel 34 0 0 0 0
Coal Seam 504 1,875,000 1,782,000 1,852,000 1,844,000
Methane
Coal Seam 519 103,000 1,703,000 1,235,000 981,000
Methane
Diesel 281.8 30,000 38,000 27,000 14,000
Natural Gas 80 232,000 241,000 43,000 17,000
Pipeline

egistered in the NEM during that financial year.

de Historical Information Report', Melbourne, viewed

ning/Related-Information/Historical-Market-Information-
eneration (MWh)
2012-13
0
3,878,000
4,594,000
6,182,000
8,178,000
5,693,000
7,101,000
5,377,000
2,738,000

611,000

9,000

1,407,000

607,000

2,892,000

1,561,000

1,005,000

28,000

38,000
Average Capacity Factor of Generators

The average capacity factor of individual generators was calculated as follows:

CF = AHG /AMO
AMO = IC * 24 hours * 365 days
ACF = (CF)/N

where:
CF is the annual capacity factor of each generator
AHG is the annual historical generation of electricity (in MWh) (for data on historical generatio
AMO is the annual maximum potential output of each generator (in MWh)
IC is the installed capacity of each generator (in MW)
ACF is the average capacity factor of each generator derived using the average of the sum of
N is the number of years each generator has registered in the NEM and operated in the last fiv

Historical Capacity Factor for Existing Scheduled Coal and Gas-Fired Generators in Q

NTNDP Generation
Station Fuel
Zone Type

NQ Collinsville Black Coal Black Coal

CQ Callide B Black Coal Black Coal
CQ Callide Power Plant (Callide C) Black Coal Black Coal
CQ Gladstone Black Coal Black Coal
CQ Stanwell Black Coal Black Coal
SWQ Kogan Creek Black Coal Black Coal
SWQ Millmerran Black Coal Black Coal
SWQ Tarong Black Coal Black Coal
SWQ Tarong North Black Coal Black Coal
Coal Seam
NQ Townsville GT (Yabulu) CCGT
Methane
Natural Gas
CQ Barcaldinea CCGT
Pipeline
Coal Seam
SEQ Swanbank E CCGT
Methane
Coal Seam
SWQ Condamine CCGT
Methane
Coal Seam
SWQ Darling Downs CCGT
Methane
NQ Mackayb (Mackay GT) OCGT Diesel

SWQ Braemar 1 OCGT Coal Seam

Methane

SWQ Braemar 2 OCGT Coal Seam

Methane
 SWQ Oakey OCGT Diesel

SWQ Roma OCGT Natural Gas

Pipeline

Note:
1 The dashes in the table indicate that the generator was not registered in the NEM during that fi
 on historical generation, refer to 'Historical Generation' sheet in workbook)

average of the sum of CF of each generator for last five financial years
operated in the last five financial years

Fired Generators in Queensland

Annual Capacity Factor

Annual
Installed
Maximum
Capacity
Output 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13
(MW)
(MWh)

190 1,664,400 0.322 0.234 0.279 0.129 0.000

700 6,132,000 0.629 0.785 0.532 0.653 0.632
900 7,884,000 0.752 0.735 0.647 0.637 0.583
1,680 14,716,800 0.542 0.493 0.426 0.499 0.420
1,460 12,789,600 0.662 0.681 0.537 0.573 0.639
744 6,517,440 0.812 0.728 0.850 0.721 0.874
852 7,463,520 0.831 0.844 0.852 0.791 0.951
1,400 12,264,000 0.630 0.639 0.603 0.568 0.438
450 3,942,000 0.820 0.588 0.865 0.698 0.695

244 2,137,440 0.538 0.648 0.431 0.391 0.286

55 481,800 0.004 0.006 0.012 0.027 0.019

385 3,372,600 0.655 0.609 0.667 0.624 0.417

144 1,261,440 - 0.235 0.549 0.465 0.481

644.5 5,645,820 - 0.146 0.520 0.579 0.512

34 297,840 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

504 4,415,040 0.425 0.404 0.419 0.418 0.354

519 4,546,440 0.023 0.375 0.272 0.216 0.221

 281.8 2,468,568 0.012 0.015 0.011 0.006 0.011

80 700,800 0.331 0.344 0.061 0.024 0.054

n the NEM during that financial year.

Average
Capacity
Factor

0.241
0.646
0.671
0.476
0.619
0.797
0.854
0.576
0.733

0.459

0.014

0.594

0.432

0.439

0.000

0.404

0.221
0.011

0.163
Weightings Assigned to the SRMC of Each Generator

The weighting assigned to the SRMC of each generator was calculated as follows:

E(AG) = ACF*AMO
WSRMC = E(AG)/ E(AG) of the same generation type

where:
E(AG) is the expected annual generation of each generator derived by using the ACF of each ge
ACF is the average capacity factor of each generator derived using the average of the sum of CF
AMO is the annual maximum potential output of each generator (in MWh) (for the calculation of
WSRMC is the weighting assigned to the SRMC of each generator based on the historical ACF when

Coal-Fired Generators

Generation
NTNDP Zone Station Fuel
Type

NQ Collinsville Black Coal Black Coal

CQ Callide B Black Coal Black Coal
CQ Callide Power Plant (Callide C) Black Coal Black Coal
CQ Gladstone Black Coal Black Coal
CQ Stanwell Black Coal Black Coal
SWQ Kogan Creek Black Coal Black Coal
SWQ Millmerran Black Coal Black Coal
SWQ Tarong Black Coal Black Coal
SWQ Tarong North Black Coal Black Coal
Total

Gas-Fired Generators

Generation
NTNDP Zone Station Fuel
Type

Coal Seam
NQ Townsville GT (Yabulu) CCGT
Methane
Natural Gas
CQ Barcaldinea CCGT
Pipeline
Coal Seam
SEQ Swanbank E CCGT
Methane
 Coal Seam
SWQ Condamine CCGT
Methane
Coal Seam
SWQ Darling Downs CCGT
Methane
NQ Mackayb (Mackay GT) OCGT Diesel

SWQ Braemar 1 OCGT Coal Seam

Methane

SWQ Braemar 2 OCGT Coal Seam

Methane
SWQ Oakey OCGT Diesel

SWQ Roma OCGT Natural Gas

Pipeline
Total
g the ACF of each generator (in MWh)
rage of the sum of CF of each generator for last five financial years (for the calculation of ACF, refer to 'Capacity
for the calculation of AMO, refer to 'Capacity Factor' sheet in workbook)
e historical ACF when the QGS was operational

Annual Expected
Average
Maximum Annual WSRMC
Capacity
Output Generation
Factor
(MWh) (MWh)
1,664,400 0.241 401,250 0.0087
6,132,000 0.646 3,963,000 0.0860
7,884,000 0.671 5,288,200 0.1147
14,716,800 0.476 7,006,200 0.1520
12,789,600 0.619 7,911,200 0.1717
6,517,440 0.797 5,192,200 0.1127
7,463,520 0.854 6,373,200 0.1383
12,264,000 0.576 7,062,000 0.1532
3,942,000 0.733 2,890,000 0.0627
46,087,250 1.0000

Annual Expected
Average
Maximum Annual WSRMC
Capacity
Output Generation
Factor
(MWh) (MWh)

2,137,440 0.459 980,400 0.1096

481,800 0.014 6,600 0.0007

3,372,600 0.594 2,005,000 0.2241

1,261,440 0.432 545,500 0.0610

5,645,820 0.439 2,480,000 0.2772

297,840 0.000 0 0.0000

4,415,040 0.404 1,782,800 0.1993

4,546,440 0.221 1,005,400 0.1124

2,468,568 0.011 27,400 0.0031

700,800 0.163 114,200 0.0128

8,947,300 1.0000
tion of ACF, refer to 'Capacity Factor' sheet in workbook)
 Short-Run Marginal Cost (SRMC) of Generators

SRMC of individual coal and gas-fired generators

SRMCSO = TESO * FC + VOM + TESO * {(CEF + FEF)/1000} * EPP

where:
SRMCSO is the short-run marginal cost on a sent-out basis (in real 2013-14 $/MWh)
TESO is the thermal efficiency on a sent-out basis (in GJ/MWh)
FC is the fuel cost (in real 2013-14 $/GJ)
VOM is the variable operating and maintenance cost on a sent-out basis (in real 2013-14 $/M
CEF is the combustion emission factor (in kg CO 2-e /GJ)
FEF is the fugitive emission factor (in kg CO 2-e /GJ)
EPP is the emission permit price (in real 2013-14 $/tonne CO 2-e)

Source:
1 ACIL Tasman, (ACIL) (2009), 'Fuel resource, new entry and generation costs in the NEM, Melb
<www.aemo.com.au/~/media/Files/Other/planning/419-0035%20pdf.pdf>.

SRMCSO under the Planning Scenario (PS)

Coal-Fired Generator
SRMCSO (2013-14 real $/MWh)
NTNDP
Station
Zone 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16

NQ Collinsville 60.36 61.00 65.49

CQ Callide B 41.72 42.32 45.38
CQ Callide Power Plant (Callide C) 37.34 37.87 40.60
CQ Gladstone 46.84 47.45 50.62
CQ Stanwell 38.68 39.21 41.89
SWQ Kogan Creek 32.18 32.73 35.44
SWQ Millmerran 32.15 32.69 35.35
SWQ Tarong 35.26 36.59 39.10
SWQ Tarong North 32.68 33.91 36.23
Gas-Fired Generator
SRMCSO (2013-14 real $/MWh)
NTNDP
Station
Zone 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16

NQ Townsville GT (Yabulu) 46.56 46.75 48.03

CQ Barcaldinea 80.34 80.43 69.01
SEQ Swanbank E 40.96 41.26 42.70
SWQ Condamine 21.83 22.07 23.26
SWQ Darling Downs 40.66 40.91 42.15
NQ Mackayb (Mackay GT) 459.82 460.41 463.28
SWQ Braemar 1 60.44 60.85 62.87
SWQ Braemar 2 63.34 63.76 65.79
 SWQ Oakey 76.88 77.15 100.83
SWQ Roma 88.69 83.07 108.65

SRMCSO under the Slow Rate of Change Scenario (SRC)

Coal-Fired Generator
SRMCSO (2013-14 real $/MWh)
NTNDP
Station
Zone 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16

NQ Collinsville 60.36 61.00 32.50

CQ Callide B 41.72 42.32 16.67
CQ Callide Power Plant (Callide C) 37.34 37.87 15.07
CQ Gladstone 46.84 47.45 20.91
CQ Stanwell 38.68 39.21 16.51
SWQ Kogan Creek 32.18 32.73 9.89
SWQ Millmerran 32.15 32.69 10.28
SWQ Tarong 35.26 36.59 13.11
SWQ Tarong North 32.68 33.91 12.22
Gas-Fired Generator
SRMCSO (2013-14 real $/MWh)
NTNDP
Station
Zone 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16

NQ Townsville GT (Yabulu) 46.56 46.75 35.71

CQ Barcaldinea 80.34 80.43 50.18
SEQ Swanbank E 40.96 41.26 30.63
SWQ Condamine 21.83 22.07 12.16
SWQ Darling Downs 40.66 40.91 30.57
NQ Mackayb (Mackay GT) 459.82 460.41 436.49
SWQ Braemar 1 60.44 60.85 43.97
SWQ Braemar 2 63.34 63.76 46.89
SWQ Oakey 76.88 77.15 76.30
SWQ Roma 82.22 76.95 81.99

Weighted Average SRMC of A Generation Type

The weighted average SRMC of a generation type was calculated as follows:

SRMCSOWA = SRMCSO* WSRMC

where:
SRMCSOWA is the weighted average of SRMCSO of a generation type (in real 2013-14 $/MWh)
WSRMC is the weighting assigned to the SRMC of each generator based on the historical ACF w
(for the calculation of WSRMC, refer to 'Weightings for SRMC' sheet in workbook)

SRMCSOWA of Coal-Fired Generation

 SRMCSOWA (2013-14 real $/MWh)
Scenario
2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
Planning (PS) 37.68 38.40 41.16
Slow Rate of Change (SRC) 37.68 38.40 14.77

SRMCSOWA for Gas-Fired Generation

SRMCSOWA (2013-14 real $/MWh)

Scenario
2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
Planning (PS) 47.47 47.70 49.60
Slow Rate of Change (SRC) 47.38 47.62 35.34

Proxy for Unit Cost of Electricity Generation Attributed to the QGS

The proxy to capture the unit cost of electricity generation attributed to the QGS was calculat
Difference in SRMCSOWA of coal and gas-fired generation = SRMCSOWA (coal-fired gene

where:
SRMCSOWA is the weighted average of SRMCSO of a generation type (in real 2013-14 $/MWh)

Difference in SRMCSOWA of coal and gas-

Scenario generation (2013-14 real $/MWh)
2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
Planning (PS) 9.78 9.30 8.44
Slow Rate of Change (SRC) 9.70 9.22 20.57
 3-14 $/MWh)

sis (in real 2013-14 $/MWh)

costs in the NEM, Melbourne, viewed September 2013,

pdf>.

13-14 real $/MWh)

WSRMC
2016-17 2017-18

66.10 67.23 0.0087

46.48 47.82 0.0860
41.58 42.77 0.1147
51.74 53.12 0.1520
42.88 44.06 0.1717
36.46 37.72 0.1127
36.34 37.52 0.1383
39.89 41.37 0.1532
36.95 38.33 0.0627

13-14 real $/MWh)

WSRMC
2016-17 2017-18

48.52 48.95 0.1096

86.79 89.23 0.0007
72.22 74.68 0.2241
23.71 24.25 0.0610
42.62 71.98 0.2772
464.36 465.65 0.0000
63.63 74.82 0.1993
66.55 67.46 0.1124
 127.93 132.18 0.0031
138.10 142.72 0.0128

13-14 real $/MWh)

WSRMC
2016-17 2017-18

31.76 31.31 0.0087

16.60 16.56 0.0860
15.01 14.98 0.1147
20.82 20.77 0.1520
16.46 16.43 0.1717
9.86 9.90 0.1127
10.26 10.24 0.1383
12.84 13.08 0.1532
11.98 12.20 0.0627

13-14 real $/MWh)

WSRMC
2016-17 2017-18

35.70 35.53 0.1096

66.31 68.30 0.0007
55.22 56.86 0.2241
12.16 12.16 0.0610
30.57 54.58 0.2772
436.49 436.49 0.0000
43.96 54.25 0.1993
46.89 46.89 0.1124
101.82 104.80 0.0031
109.73 112.97 0.0128

real 2013-14 $/MWh)

on the historical ACF when the QGS was operational
orkbook)
2013-14 real $/MWh)
2016-17 2017-18
42.13 43.42
14.67 14.69

2013-14 real $/MWh)

2016-17 2017-18
57.13 68.31
41.29 50.40

to the QGS was calculated as follows:

MCSOWA (coal-fired generation) - SRMCSOWA (gas-fired generation)

real 2013-14 $/MWh)

CSOWA of coal and gas-fired

2013-14 real $/MWh)
2016-17 2017-18
15.00 24.88
26.62 35.70