A Weekly Close For The Dow Above 10,379 Targets 10,558
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ValuEngine.comA Weekly Close For The Dow Above 10,379 Targets 10,558
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ValuEngine.comRichard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com.
ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Princeton, NJ. ValuEngine
covers over 5,000 stocks every day.
A variety of newsletters and portfolios containing Suttmeier's detailed research, stock picks,
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July 23, 2010 – A Weekly Close for the Dow above 10,379 targets 10,558
The weekly charts show the following: The decline in the 10-Year yield is overdone with my
annual pivot at 2.999 and my annual risky level at 2.813. Gold should continue to trend lower
with my quarterly value level at $1140.9. Crude oil held my annual pivot at $77.05, which
targeted my monthly risky level at $79.36 with semiannual risky level at $83.94. The euro stays
positive on a weekly close above 1.2617, which is the five-week modified moving average. The
Dow trading range is 10,019 to 10,379. A weekly close above the five-week modified moving
average at 10,190 shifts the weekly chart to positive. My Presentation in NYC on Monday,
August 9th at Bloomberg Headquarters at 5:30 PM
10-Year Note – (2.926) The weekly chart shows that the decline in yields is overdone. The low yield
for the move was 2.853 set on July 21st, and was a failed test of my 2.999 and 2.813 annual risky
levels. Next week the US Treasury auctions $39 billion in 2-Year notes on Tuesday, $37 billion 5-Year
notes on Wednesday and $29 billion 7-Year notes on Thursday.
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
Comex Gold – ($1194.8) The weekly chart for gold stays negative on a weekly close below the five-
week modified moving average at $1206.3. The all time high of $1266.5 set on June 21st was a test
of June’s monthly resistance, as a significant top for gold.
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
Nymex Crude Oil – ($78.96) A close today above my annual pivot at $77.05 and my monthly risky
level at $79.36, which was tested on Thursday indicates upside to my semiannual risky level at $83.94.
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
The Euro – (1.2886) The weekly chart stays positive on a weekly close above the five-week modified
moving average at 1.2674.
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
Daily Dow: (10,322) This week’s pivot is 10,019 with daily and annual pivots at 10,303 and 10,379,
and semiannual and monthly risky levels at 10,558 and 10,891. My quarterly value level is 7,812 with
my annual risky level at 11,235, which was tested at the April 26th high at 11,258. This test marked the
end of the bear market rally that began in March 2009. We are in the second leg of the multi-year bear
market that began in October 2007 targeting 8,500 before 11,500.
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
Weekly Dow: The April 26th high of 11,258 was a test of the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of the
decline from October 2007 high to the March 2009 low. Note also the failed test of the 200-week simple
moving average now at 11,071 and the failed test of my annual risky level at 11,235. MOJO is flat and a
weekly closes above the 5-week modified moving average at 10,190 shifts the weekly chart profile to
positive.
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
Monthly Dow: now shows declining MOJO after being oversold and monthly closes below the five-
month modified moving average at 10,169 keeps the monthly chart to negative. The 120-month simple
moving average is a resistance at 10,452.
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
Richard Suttmeier Presentation – Monday, August 9, 2010: I will be the speaker at the Market
Technicians Association Meeting to be held at Bloomberg Headquarters at 5:30 PM on Monday,
August 9, 2010.
• Home Prices are Set to Fall to the Levels of 1999 / 2000
• Community Banks remain Vulnerable for Failure
• US Stocks have begun the Second Leg of a Multi-Year Bear Market
• "Buy and Trade' Replaces "Buy and Hold"
To attend please reply to [email protected] and include: first and last name, company name,
address, email and phone number so that you can be pre-registered into the Bloomberg security
systems for this event.
That’s today’s Four in Four. Have a great day.
Richard Suttmeier
Chief Market Strategist
www.ValuEngine.com
(800) 381-5576
As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I
have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as
well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the
ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. I hope that you will go to www.ValuEngine.com and review some of the sample
issues of my research.
