Probability PDF
Probability PDF
Example:
What is the probability of rolling a 6 with a pair of standard dice?
There are five ways to roll a 6: (1,5)(2,4)(3,3)(4,2), and (5,1). There are 62=36
possible outcomes when a pair of dice are rolled.
5
Therefore, the probability of rolling a 6 is
36 .
2. There are four green blocks and four red blocks in a bag. Two blocks
are selected at random. What is the probability that they are both red?
3. All of the arrangements of the letters in the word ALGEBRA are written on
a list, and one of the arrangements is selected at random. What is the
probability that the selected arrangement contains a double-A?
In problem number two above, we can consider the selection of two blocks as
dependent events: selecting the first, then the second block. To find the prob-
ability of two events, multiply the probability of the first by the probability of the
second.
Examples: There are four green blocks and four red blocks in a bag.
1. What is the probability of selecting a red block, keeping it, then selecting
another red block?
2. What is the probability of selecting a green block, replacing it, then select-
ing a red block?
Dependent and Independent Probability
Many probability problems involve blind selection of objects, they are easy to
write and familiar. If objects are selected and replaced, the selections are inde-
pendent events. Objects selected without replacement are dependent
events.
Example:
A fair coin is tossed 100 times, landing 59 times on tails, and 41 times on heads.
What is the probability that the next flip will be tails?
Assuming the coins and dice in problems are fair, the probability of flipping
heads will always be 1/2, and the probability of rolling a 6 will always be 1/6,
independent of any previous throws.
Name________________________ Period _____
1. You roll a pair of dice, one is red and the other is green. What is the probability
of rolling a 5 on the red die and an even number on the green one?
1._______
2. For a lottery drawing, balls numbered with the digits 1-9 are placed in three
bins and one ball is selected from each bin in order. What is the probability
that all three digits drawn will be odd?
2._______
3. You hold the Q in a game of scrabble, and need a U. There are 7 letters left
in the bag, but only one U. If you select four letters at random, what is
the probability that you will get the U?
hint: What is the probability that you will NOT get a U?
3._______
4. Six students stand in a line. What is the probability that, from left to right, they
are standing in order from oldest to youngest?
4._______
5. For a randomly selected phone number, what is the probability that the last three
digits are the same?
5._______
6. What is the probability of rolling the numbers 1 through 6 in order from least to
greatest with six rolls of a standard die?
6._______
7. What is the probability of rolling each of the numbers 1 through 6 in any order
with six rolls of a standard die?
7._______
8. In six rolls of a standard die, what is the probability that the same number will
be rolled exactly five times?
(This requires some insight and counting techniques.)
8._______
Counting and Probability Probability
Sometimes it is not enough to understand how to compute compound
probability. Often, there are multiple ways in which a successful outcome can
occur. In this case, it is often useful to compute the probability of a series of
events occuring one way, then multiply by the number of ways it can happen.
Solution 1:
Compute the probability of rolling a 1-1-X (where X is not a 1):
1 1 5 5
6 6 6 216 , but you can also roll 1-X-1 or X-1-1 with the same probability..
1 1 5 15 5
3
6 6 6 216 72
Solution 2:
Compute the number of favorable outcomes and divide by the number of pos-
sible outcomes (63).
You are filling three slots ___ ___ ___. There are three ways to place the ones,
and the final slot can be filled with any one of 5 digits.
3 5 15 5
63 216 72
Practice:
1. A coin is flipped 7 times. What is the probability that exactly three of
the flips are tails?
2. Marlon randomly selects three stones from a bag containing two red
stones, twoblack stones, and two white stones. What is the probability
that Marlon selects two red stones and one black stone?
=
3. Lisa shakes her piggy bank until five coins fall out. She knows that there
/ are five nickels and five quarters in her piggy bank. What is the
probability that the sum of the change that has fallen out is $0.85?
(Assume nickels and quarters fall out with equal probability).)
Name________________________ Period _____
1. A homeroom has 7 boys and 5 girls. The homeroom randomly selects two representatives
to student council. What is the probability that the homeroom elects one boy
and one girl?
1._______
2. Four students each take a free-throw. If each student has a 2/5 chance of making
his/her free-throw, what is the probability that exactly three students make
their shot?
2._______
3. The school cafeteria has chocolate chip cookies and oatmeal cookies for dessert,
and every student gets a cookie. If students choose chocolate chip over
oatmeal 2 to 1, what is the probability that exactly 3 of the next 5 students
will select chocolate chip cookies?
3._______
4._______
5. Twenty-seven students each flip a fair coin. What is the probability that
there are more heads showing than tails?
5._______
6. Three students are randomly selected from a group of twelve, including twins
Billy and Adam. What is the probability that Adam is selected, but
Billy is not?
6._______
Challenge: Alice and Ben take turns rolling a standard six-sided die. The first
person to roll a six wins. If Alice goes first, what is the probability that she will
win the game?
C._______
Casework and Probability Probability
Sometimes probability problems involve solving problems for multiple cases.
Solution 2: How could you use the entries in Pascals Triangle to solve this
problem?
Practice:
1. A pair of dice is rolled. What is the probability that the product of the two
numbers rolled is greater than or equal to 20?
2. Jack flips a penny twice, and Kelly flips a nickel three times. What is the
probability that each flips the same number of heads?
3. A bag contains seven red marbles and three green marbles. Opal selects
three marbles from the bag at random and without replacement. What is the
s. probability that she selects more red than green marbles?
3 Challenge:
In a set of five index cards, three are blue on both sides, one is white on both
sides, and one has a blue side and a white side. A randomly selected card is
placed on a table and shows a blue face. What is the probability that the other
face is also blue?
Name________________________ Period _____
1. The numbers 1 through 9 are placed in a bag. Juan selects three numbers
from the bag at random and without replacement. What is the probability
that the three numbers Juan picks are consecutive integers?
1._______
2. Marty has a drawer containing three white socks, four blue socks, and five
black socks. If Marty randomly selects two socks from the drawer, what is
the probability that the socks will be the same color?
2._______
3._______
4. An organization is choosing colors for the stripes on its flag. The flag has
three horizontal stripes and a vertical stripe as shown. The color of each
of the four stripes is selected at random from the colors red, white, and
black. What is the probability that no two stripes of the same color share
an edge?
4._______
5._______
6. Each of the four faces of a cube is painted either white
or black with equal probability. What is the probability
that no two black faces share an edge?
6._______
Name________________________ Period _____
1._______
2. How many ways can eight reindeer be divided among three sleighs if at least
one reindeer must pull each sleigh?
2._______
3. How many ways can six slices of pepperoni pizza and three slices of cheese
pizza be divided among five students if one of the students is a vegetar-
ian? (Hard, skip this one and come back to it.)
3._______
Pascals Triangle
5 6 7 8
1. Add:
5 5 5 5
1._______
2. What is the probability that in seven flips of a coin, there are four, five, or six
tails?
2._______
25 25 n
3. . Find n + r.
20 21 r
3._______
Name________________________ Period _____
1._______
2. Fifteen students (six boys and nine girls) are randomly assigned into three
groups of five. What is the probability that one of the groups has all girls?
2._______
3. You are dealt three cards from a standard deck. What is the probability of
being dealt three face cards, all from different suits?
3._______
1. Three of the vertices of a cube are connected to form a triangle. What is the
probability that all three vertices are on the same face of the cube?
1._______
2. Each of the four dots below is randomly assigned a color: blue, purple, or
navy. What is the probability that no two dots that are the same color will
be connected by a line segment?
2._______
3. Three digits are selected at random and without replacement from a bag
containing each of the digits 0-9. What is the probability that all three
digits share a common factor greater than 1?
3._______
Name________________________ Period _____
1._______
2. You are dealt two cards from a standard deck. What is the probability that
they are both red numbered cards? (2-10 of either hearts or diamonds)
2._______
3. A bag contains only red blocks, white blocks, and black blocks. The probabil-
ity of selecting a red block is 1/5, and the probability of selecting a white
block is 3/8. What is the fewest number of black blocks that could be in
the bag?
3._______
4. Martha is making four giant cookies, each shaped like a different animal. She
has ten chocolate kisses to distribute among the four cookies. How many
ways can she distribute the ten kisses, if each cookie must receive at least
one chocolate?
4._______
5. Ms. Smith tells her students that there are at least 3 true answers on an
eight-question true/false quiz. How many possible combinations of an-
swers are there on the quiz?
5._______
6. Jeremy has found a way to flip a coin so that it comes up tails twice as often
as heads. What is the probability of Jeremy flipping more tails than heads
in three coin flips using this method?
6._______
7. Oleg rolls a standard die three times. What is the probability that the third
roll is greater than the sum of the first two rolls?
7._______
Name________________________ Period _____
8._______
9. Hank can hit the bulls eye with a bow-and-arrow one in three times. If Hank
fires nine arrows, what is the probability that exactly three of them will
land in the bulls eye? Express your answer as a fraction in simplest form
or rounded to the tenth of a percent.
9._______
10. What is the probability of being dealt a face card then a spade from a stan-
dard deck of 52 cards?
10._______
Name________________________ Period _____
1._______
2. Ryan has made three snowmen, and is using coals to make the buttons on
the front of the snowmen. If there are seven coals, how many ways can
they be distributed among the three snowmen?
2._______
3. There are two dozen (24) marbles in a bag, each is either clear, blue, green,
or white. If the probability of randomly selecting a blue marble is 1/3,
and the probability of selecting a red marble is 1/4, and you are twice as
likely to draw a clear marble than a white marble, how many white
marbles are in the bag?
3._______
4. You are dealt three cards from a standard deck of 52 cards. What is the
probability that exactly two cards are from the same suit?
4._______
5. At Ashwins birthday party, five tables are needed to seat all of the invited
guests. There are a dozen red balloons for decorating the tables at the
party. You want the birthday boys tableto get at least five balloons. How
many ways are there to arrange the balloons among the five tables?
5._______
6. Three distinct digits are selected from the digits 2 through 8. What is the
probability that the sum of the three digits is a prime number?
6._______
7. Each of the six segments in the drawing below is randomly painted either red
or blue. What is the probability that there will be a red square or triangle
in the diagram?
7._______
Name________________________ Period _____
8._______
9._______
10. Henrys Ice Cream shop offers eight toppings for its ice cream sundaes. You
order the deluxe special, which allows you to pick five or more of the
available toppings. How many combinations of toppings can you choose
from?
10._______
Geometric Probability Probability
Many, many random darts have been thrown at dart boards in Math Land.
When calculating geometric probabilities, it is useful to have a general knowl-
edge of some basic area formulas:
b2
h h r
h h
b b b b1
Example:
A random dart is thrown at the board below, which is made up of concentric
circles of radius 3, 6, 9, and 12cm. What is the probability of the dart hitting
each numbered ring of the dart board?
P(1 point) =
P(2 points) =
P(3 points) = 1 2 3 4
P(4 points) =
Example:
A random dart is thrown at the board below, which is made up of triangles of
base 1cm, 2cm, and 3cm. What is the probability of the dart hitting each let-
tered triangle of the dart board?
P(A) =
P(B) =
A B C
P(C) =
1cm 2cm 3cm
Geometric Probability Probability
Dartboard problems can become more complicated:
Example:
What is the probability of scoring more than four points with two random darts
thrown at the board below?
1 point 3 points
2 points 1 point
Example:
Point X is selected in the interior of 3-4-5 right triangle ABC. What is the prob-
ability that the area of triangle ABX will be greater than 3cm2?
C
5c
4cm
A 3cm B
Example:
Point X is selected at random inside square ABCD. What is the probability that
the area of triangle ABX > BCX > ADX?
D C
A B
Name________________________ Period _____
1. A random point is selected within the large circle below. What is the prob-
ability that the point will be in the shaded region, outside of the two
congruent smaller circles?
1._______
2. A random point is selected within the rectangle below. What is the probabil-
ity that the point will lie in the shaded region within one of the two con-
gruent circles? Express your answer in terms of Pi.
2._______
3. What is the probability that a random point selected within the square below
will be in the shaded area?
2cm 1cm
4. A random point is selected within the large circle below. What is the prob-
ability that it lands in the circle below. If AB = 6 and BC = 3, what is the
probability that the point is within the shaded area?
B
C A
4._______
5. A half-dollar coin with a 1cm radius is tossed onto a table with 16cm sides.
The coin may land with an edge hanging off of the table (as long as it
doesnt fall off). What is the probability that the coin lands so that it is
touching (touching includes being completely within) one of the shaded
squares?
5._______
6._______
Geometric Probability Probability
Sometimes Geometric Probability problems are not as obvious. Graphing can
be a useful tool when probability problems seem to have countless possible
outcomes.
Example:
A positive real number 0<x<10 is selected at random and added to a second
randomly selected number 0<y<5. What is the probability that the result will
be greater than 5 but less than 10?
Example:
A positive real number 0<x<1 is selected at random. A second number 0<y<2
is selected at random. What is the probability that x<y?
Example:
The bus comes to a stop near your house every day at a random time between
6:45 and 6:50. You arrive at the bus stop at a random time between 6:40 and
6:45 every day and wait until the bus comes. What percent of the time will you
wait less than 4 minutes for the bus to arrive?
Practice:
1. Two real numbers a and b are selected at random between -5
and 5. What is the probability that a + b > a - b ?
4. You know that there is a lunar eclipse tonight, but you have
forgotten what specific time it will begin. You only recall that
the eclipse lasts an hour and will begin some time between
11pm and 5am. You set your alarm for a random time be-
tween 11pm and 4am, and go out for an hour to try to catch
it. What is the probability that you will witness at least a por-
tion of the eclipse?
Name________________________ Period _____
1._______
2._______
1cm 2cm
3._______
Name________________________ Period _____
4._______
5._______
6._______
Expected Value Probability
Expected value is easiest to think of as the average outcome. The expected
value is not necessarily the value that is most likely to occur.
Example:
When you roll a standard six-faced die, you win whatever number you roll in
dollars. What are the expected winnings on a single roll of the die?
Example:
A more complicated game involves rolling a pair of dice. Winnings are calcu-
lated as follows: You win whatever amount you roll unless you roll doubles (1-
1, 2-2, etc.), in which case you lose triple the amount rolled. What are the
expected winnings on a single roll of the die?
Example:
A change machine is broken. If you put in a penny, it spits out a coin at ran-
dom: either a penny, nickel, dime, or quarter, each with equal probability. If
you put in a dollars worth of pennies, how much money can you expect to get
back in change?
Practice:
You and a friend play a game of chance which involves flipping two quarters
each. Find your expected winnings for each turn given the set rules below.
1. If three or four coins show the same (heads or tails), you win them all. If
there are two of each (2 heads and 2 tails) your friend keeps all the coins.
What is your expected value for each turn?
2. If three or four coins show the same (heads or tails), your friend keeps the
coins in the majority (ex. HHHT means your friend keeps the three H coins). If
there are two of each (2 heads and 2 tails) you keep all the coins. What is your
expected value for each turn?
3. Your friend flips his coins first. If you can match his flip (HH, HT, or TT) you
keep the coins. If you cannot, he keeps the coins. What is your expected
value for each turn?
4. Your friend flips three coins to your two. If he flips more heads, he keeps
the coins, but if you flip as many or more heads, you keep the coins. What is
your expected value for each turn?
Name________________________ Period _____
1. There are three red marbles and seven blue marbles in a bag. You select two
marbles at random. If they are the same color you win a dollar, and if
they are different you lose a dollar. What is the expected value for the
selection of one marble from the bag?
1._______
2._______
3. Eight prizes are randomly assigned to briefcases with values of $0, $2, $10,
$50, $100, $250, $500, and $1000. You select a briefcase at random.
What is the expected value of your briefcase?
3._______
4. A red die and a green die are rolled. If the value of the green die is greater
than the value of the red die, you win the difference. Otherwise, you roll
again until you win. What is the expected value of a turn.
4._______
5. There are tokens in a bag worth $1 and $5. When you select a token at
random, the expected value is $1.20. What is the fewest number of
tokens that could be in the bag?
5._______
Name________________________ Period _____
b. What is the expected value of a guess if you can eliminate one of the five
answer choices?
a._______
b._______
7. A dart strikes a random point on the board below. What is the expected
value for a single dart if the small circles are worth 2 points and the re-
maining area is worth 1 point?
7._______
8. What is the expected value for the sum of the digits on a digital clock?
8._______
Name________________________ Period _____
2. The average for Calebs first 7 tests this year is 91. What score
will he need to average on his next two tests if he wants to
improve his test average to 93?
2._______
2. The average for Calebs first 7 tests this year is 91. What score
will he need to average on his next two tests if he wants to
improve his test average to 93?
2._______
2._______
C
3._______
4.______
Name________________________ Period _____
6._______
7._______
8. The mean for a set of nine positive integers is 13. Two consecu-
tive integers are added to the set, and the mean is increased
by 3. What are the two integers?
8.______
9.______
Name________________________ Period _____
1._______
2._______
5 7
3._______
4. A penny, a nickel, a dime, and a quarter are all flipped. You get to keep all
the coins that land heads side up. What is your expected value?
4._______
5. Four numbers are added to the set of integers below, increasing the mean,
median, and mode each by 1. What is the largest of the the integers?
3 4 5 5 8
5._______
Name________________________ Period _____
6._______
7. The expiration date on a credit card is given as two digits for the month and
two digits for the year. What is the expected value for the sum of the
digits in the expiration date for a credit card that expires between 01/10
and 01/15?
7._______
8. Austin has calculated that if he scores a 95 on his next three tests, it will
improve his test average to 93. If Austin has taken six tests so far this
year, what is his current average?
8._______
9._______
10. Three white, four red, and five blue blocks are placed in a bag and selected
at random, two at a time, and without replacement. If the blocks are the
same color, you win $3 if they are either both red or both blue, and $6 if
they are both white. What is the expected value for a draw of two blocks?
10._______
Name________________________ Period _____
1._______
2._______
3._______
4. Tiles numbered with each of the digits 1 through 5 are placed in a bag, so
that there are the same number of tiles for each number as the number on
the tile (for example, there are 4 tiles with the number four). What is the
expected value for the draw of a single tile? Express your answer as a
common fraction in simplest form.
4._______
5. If your average for the first three quizzes in this class is a 90, how many of
the ten questions on this quiz will you need to get right to have an A
average (92.5 or above). Remember, you get 60 points plus 5 points per
correct answer.
5._______
Name________________________ Period _____
6._______
7._______
8._______
9._______
10. A bag contains eighteen $5 tokens. There are also an equal number of $1
and $2 tokens in the bag. The expected value for the draw of a token at
random is $2.25. If there are twelve $5 tokens in the bag, how many
tokens are in the bag altogether?
10._______