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Solutions To Assignment 1

The document provides solutions to an assignment involving probability calculations for events such as drawing cards from a deck, rolling dice, and sampling balls from an urn. It includes the step-by-step workings and probabilities for 10 problems involving combinations, permutations, and other probability concepts.

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Frankie Why
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408 views

Solutions To Assignment 1

The document provides solutions to an assignment involving probability calculations for events such as drawing cards from a deck, rolling dice, and sampling balls from an urn. It includes the step-by-step workings and probabilities for 10 problems involving combinations, permutations, and other probability concepts.

Uploaded by

Frankie Why
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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FINA2220A Quantitative Methods for Actuarial Analysis

First Term 2016-2017


Solutions to Assignment 1

10 12
1. There are possible choices of the 5 men and 5 women. They can be paired up in 5!
5 5
ways, since if we arbitrarily order the men then the first men can be paired with any of the 5
women, the next with any of the remaining 4, and so on. Hence, there are

10 12
5! 23,950, 080 possible results.
5 5
2. There are 147 possible ways for 7 people to get off and 14! 7! ways that no two will get off on
the same floor. Hence the required probability is 0.1641.
3. (a) There are C210 C220 8550 different outcomes are possible.
(b) There are C12 C18 C22 C018 16 ways that the lottery ticket contains exactly one matching
white number and two matching blue numbers. Hence the required probability is 0.001871.

4. There are

1 30!
11

2.4955 10 ways to select two teams for the soccer game since the
2 7! 7! 16!

order of the two teams being selected doesnt matter.

FINA2220A

Solutions to Assignment 1

5. The total number of ways to roll five dice is 65.


(a) P Five-of-a-kind 6 65 0.000772, since there are only 6 possible such hands.
(b) P Four-of-a-kind

6 C45 C15 C11 6 5 5 1

0.019290,
65
66

since there are 6 possible

four-of-a -kind with C45 ways to select 4 of the 5 dice to match, and C15 non-matching
kinds for the remaining die (with C11 ways).

6 C35 5 C22 6 10 5 1

0.038580, since there are 6 possible full house


(c) P Full house
65
65
with C35 ways to select 3 of the 5 dice to match, and 5 possible pairs of another kinds.

6 C35 C25 C12 C11 6 10 10 2 1

0.154321,
(d) P Three-of-a-kind
65
65

since

there

are

possible three-of-a-kind with C35 ways to select 3 of the 5 dice to match, and C25 possible
ways to choose the other two kinds with C12 C11 ways among the remaining two dice.
(e) P Two-pair

C26 C25 C23 C14 C11 15 10 3 4 1

0.231481, since there are C26 possible


65
65

two-pair with C 25 C23 ways to select 4 of the dice to match, and C14 possible ways to
choose the third kinds (with C11 ways).

6 C25 C35 C13 C12 C11 6 10 10 3 2 1

0.462963,
(f) P One pair
65
65

since

there

are

possible one pair with C25 ways to select 2 of the 5 dice to match, and C35 possible ways
to choose the other three kinds with C13 C12 C11 ways among the remaining three dice.
(g) P Straight

2 5! 2 120

0.030864, since there are two possible straights (12345 and


65
65

23456) and there 5! permutation for each straight.


(h) P Nothing

4 5! 4 120

0.061728, since there are four possible nothings (12346,


65
65

12356, 12456 and 13456) and there are 5! permutation for each nothing.
Based on these probabilities, the ranking should be (1) five-of-a-kind, (2) four-of-a-kind, (3)
straight, (4) full house, (5) nothing, (6) three-of-a-kind, (7) two-pair and (8) one pair. The
straight is ranked third.
2

FINA2220A

Solutions to Assignment 1

6. (a) S {(1, g ), (0, g ), (1, f ), (0, f ), (1, s), (0, s)}


(b) A {(1, s), (0, s)}
(c) B {(0, g ), (0, f ), (0, s)}
(d) B C A {(1, s), (0, s), (1, g ), (1, f )}

7. The first card is drawn. There is a probability of

4
the card is an ace. Then the second card is
52

drawn without replacement. The probability of either a ten, a jack, a queen, or a king is

16
.
51

There are two ways of obtaining this combination: either ace is drawn first or ace is drawn the
second. Hence the required probability is

4 16 16 4 2 4 16

0.048265 .
52 51 52 51 52 51

8. There are 10 outcomes which result in a sum of 5 or 7:


{(1,4),(2,3),(3,2),(4,1),(1,6),(2,5),(3,4),(4,3),(5,2),(6,1)}
26
Hence, P ( E n )
36

n 1

4
2
, P( E n ) .
36 n 1
5

9.
I

1000

(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)

II

7000

19000

1000
1000

3000
0

III

20,000
12,000
11,000
68,000
10,000

FINA2220A

Solutions to Assignment 1

5 6 8

3
3
3
10. For sampling without replacement: P 3 balls are of same color 0.08875
19

3

5 6 8 19
and P 3 balls are of different color 0.2477.
1 1 1 3

53 63 83
0.1244
193
6 5 6 8
P 3 balls are of different color P( RBG ) P( BRG ) P(GBR)
0.2099.
(19)3
P 3 balls are of same color

For sampling with replacement:

and

11. We are given


0.7 P A B P A P B P A B

c
c
c
0.9 P A B P A P B P A B

Adding the two equations, we have

P A B P A B

0.7 0.9 2 P A P B P B c

2 P A P S P A P A 1.0

Hence, we have P(A) = 0.6.


12. Let T and C be the events that a patient visited a physical therapist and a chiropractor,
respectively. The information given are:

P T C 0.22, P T c C c 0.12 and P C P T 0.14.


Hence, we have

P T c C c P T C

1 P T C 0.12

P T C 0.88.

0.88 P T C P C P T P T C 2 P T 0.14 0.22 P T 0.48.

FINA2220A

Solutions to Assignment 1

13. Let A, H and R be the events that a client have auto insurance, homeowners insurance and
renters insurance, respectively. The information given are:

P Ac H c R c P

A H R 0.17
c

P A H R 0.83,

P A 0.64, P H 2 P R , P A H P A R 0.35, P Ac H 0.11,


P H R P A H R 0.
Hence, we have

P A H R P A P H P R P A H P A R P H R P A H R
0.83 0.64 3P R 0.35
which gives P(R) = 0.18. Finally, we have

P H P A H P Ac H

0.36 P A H 0.11 P A H 0.25,

P A R 0.35 P A H 0.10.
14. Let S, H, D and C be the events that a bridge hand voided in space, heart, diamond and club,
respectively. Then we have
P S H D C P S P H P D P C P SH ... P SHDC
13 39
13 13 26
13 13 13 13
0 13
0 0 13
0 0 0 13
4 6 4 0
52
52
52
13
13
13



39 26
4 6 4
13
13

52
13

0.05107.

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