Dashboard
Dashboard
James Michalko
Constance Malpas
Arnold Arcolio
OCLC Research
Suggested citation:
Michalko, James, Constance Malpas and Arnold Arcolio. 2010. Research Libraries, Risk and
Systemic Change. Report produced by OCLC Research. Published online
at: http://www.oclc.org/research/publications/library/2010/2010-03.pdf .
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Contents
Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 5
Methodology .................................................................................................................................... 6
Risk Clusters and Register ................................................................................................................ 8
General Observations ..................................................................................................................... 11
Risk Cluster Observations ............................................................................................................... 12
Intensity of Risks ............................................................................................................................ 13
Mitigation ....................................................................................................................................... 14
Strategies for Mitigation ................................................................................................................. 16
Residual Risks ................................................................................................................................ 18
Epilogue ......................................................................................................................................... 19
Notes ............................................................................................................................................. 20
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Tables
Table 1: Grading scale used in assessing risk .................................................................................. 8
Table 2: Register of categorized risks................................................................................................ 9
Figures
Figure 1: Categories used by interviewees in contemplating current risks ......................................... 7
Figure 2: Risk clusters....................................................................................................................... 8
Figure 3: Sensitivity analysis: risk groups ....................................................................................... 13
Figure 4: Inherent risks: high impact & likelihood ........................................................................... 14
Figure 5: Proposed High risk mitigation strategy and sequence ...................................................... 17
Figure 6: Residual High risks .......................................................................................................... 18
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Introduction
Everything sort of looks the same, but everything has changed.
Michelle Rabinowitz, a producer at MTV News 1
In 2008, OCLC Research engaged an organization experienced in conducting risk assessments for
corporate, governmental and educational clients with the objective of identifying the most
significant risks facing research libraries. We thought that the techniques used to examine risks
facing an individual enterprise could be productively deployed to arrive at a measured assessment
of risks facing a distributed industry or enterprise in this case, United States research libraries.
For this group of related organizations, rather than any individual library, we wanted to examine
the following:
In a rapidly evolving information environment, what are the greatest risks to research
libraries?
o
o
We recognized that the research library within an academic setting is unlike the independent
individual organizations that usually undergo this kind of risk assessment process. The research
library is not independent of the mission of its home institution. It is not entirely free to set and
change goals and objectives. It is a cost center within the academy not a revenue-generating entity.
It is often the recipient of specific directions and constraints dictated by the university in which it
delivers its services. Because of these differences the range of responses that research library
managers can muster to address acknowledged challenges and risks is considerably
circumscribed relative to their counterparts in private industry.
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Risk assessment within a private company is usually based on interviews with senior managers
and board members with the process having two distinct stages. In the first stage, identified risks
are characterized, rated, ranked and evaluated based on their likelihood and estimated impact. In
the second stage, the resulting risks are assigned to individual managers who take responsibility
for action plans that mitigate each specific risk. In the first stage of this investigation our
consultants interviewed library directors and summarized the reported perceptions of the source
and intensity of risks. Then we in OCLC Research considered the distribution and implications of
these risks and explored which might be mitigated by collaborative action and collective resources.
No effort was made to assign responsibility for risk management to traditional library operating
units (collection management, systems, technical services etc.), since few of the risks appeared
susceptible to local institutional control.
Despite differences between the business and academic sectors, we found the methodology to
identify, characterize and rank risks effective. It revealed a convergence of perceived risks. It
yielded a shared perspective on a landscape of challenges facing US research libraries. It may
support movement toward cooperative mitigation of critical risks. We hope that our descriptive
categorization of risk clusters will provide libraries with a common vocabulary for identifying,
evaluating and responding to shared challenges. Finally, we believe that assimilating, ranking
and analyzing these risks will provide a sound basis for OCLC Research to formulate a
collaborative action agenda in partnership with the research library community.
Methodology
The risk assessment entailed interviews of 15 library directors from members of the Association
of Research Libraries (ARL) in the United States with whom OCLC Research works via their
participation in the RLG Partnership. The participating library directors were distributed across
the ranked ARL membership.
An interview questionnaire was provided in advance to each interviewee and included a section
to identify risks and their level based on a predefined risk category. Throughout this process
risk was defined as the possibility that an event will occur and adversely affect the achievement
of the librarys objectives. The risk categories provided consisted of general themes common
across industries as well as some library specific categories. Figure 1 shows the categories that
were used by the interviewees when contemplating current risks. This is a comprehensive
typology intended to encourage the interviewees to consider the fullest possible range of risks
that research libraries might be facing. Many are not applicable to the research library within
the academy (although they may be relevant to the librarys home institution) and interviewees
used this to prompt their reflections.
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Major
Moderate
Minor
Insignificant
Likelihood
Almost certain
Likely
Possible
Unlikely
Rare
The risks identified by the interviewees were consolidated in a risk register and an average risk
rating was calculated. This average rating took into account the frequency with which the risk was
mentioned, the impact assigned and the likelihood forecast across all the interviews. Based on
these three factors, an overall risk rating was computed and a designation of high, medium or low
was applied to each risk.
The resulting synthesis is a basis for assessment of the overall significance of these risks and the
degree to which they threaten the academic research library enterprise as it is currently organized. It
is important to note that this risk assessment is a snapshot amid continual changes in the challenges
faced by research libraries, such as new technology, regulatory requirements, organizational
restructuring, new leadership personnel, etc. It is also important to acknowledge that in research
libraries, as in all industries, a risk and challenge may be the shadow of an opportunity. The risks
enumerated in this report were assessed against the prevailing library business model, and hence
represent greater or lesser threats to the current institutionally-organized model of library service
rather than threats to the survivability of the research library enterprise as a whole.
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Value Proposition
Human Resources
Durable Goods
. . . changing value of library collections and space; prices go up, value goes
downaccounting doesnt acknowledge the change
Legacy Technology
Intellectual Property
Risk
Risk Rating
Availability of online and other resources (e.g., Google) may weaken the visibility
and necessity of the library.
High
User base erodes because library value proposition is not effectively communicated.
High
Medium
Operations are not managed effectively because library metrics are not established,
tracked or utilized and management's accounting and budgeting reporting is not
relevant, timely or useful.
Medium
Medium
Strategic planning in the library is not aligned with university goals and objectives.
Medium
Medium
Medium
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Risk
Risk Rating
High
10
High
11
Human resources are not allocated appropriately within the library or university to
provide the training, development, cross-training and re-training required to manage
change in the current environment.
High
12
Current human resources lack skill set for future needs (changing technology, etc.).
High
13
Low
14
High
Durable Goods: Changing value of library collections and space (prices go up,
value goes down; accounting doesn't acknowledge the change)
No.
Risk
Risk Rating
15
Medium
16
Low
17
Medium
18
Medium
Risk
Risk Rating
19
Library cannot adjust fast enough to keep up with rapidly changing technology and
user needs.
High
20
High
21
Due diligence and sustainability assessment of local or third party services and
initiatives is not completed, tracked or analyzed.
High
22
Digital content is lost as a result of not being properly managed and preserved.
Medium
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24
25
Risk
Potential exists for increased cost burden to research libraries as access to content
previously owned and distributed by libraries (research outputs; digitized
collections) is increasingly controlled by commercial agents and online service
providers.
Collection development strategy fails to address changing nature of scholarly
record; appraisal and selection processes are out of step with proliferation of new
content.
Risk Rating
Medium
Medium
Medium
Uncategorized
26
Low
General Observations
The plurality of risks (30%) is associated with concerns about an uncertain library
value proposition.
The second largest class, and second priority in terms of medium to high risks, is
related to staffing and human resources.
The high risks are chiefly operational in nature and the results of general
organizational weaknesses.
The high risks represent circumstances that require continuous monitoring and are
mostly controllablethat is, either the occurrence or the impact can be managed.
This confirmed for us that there is an opportunity to collectively consider these risks
so that research libraries can appropriately calibrate local and group responses.
We expected to see serious concerns emerge about the custody of intellectual property
(peer-reviewed literature, locally created content) that supports the research enterprise.
Interestingly enough they did not. Libraries do not seem to perceive an immediate
threat to core operations or services from this.
Twenty-six key risks were identified by all participants, ten (38%) were judged to have a high
potential impact and likelihood; three (11%) were considered to have a low impact and likelihood.
Overall there were three times as many risks considered to be high versus low. This provides some
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measure of the pressure and uncertainties under which research library directors are currently
operating: the heat is on and its intense.
Alternative service providers in the network are providing a more compelling research
environment and support tools.
Our current value proposition cant compete with the alternative service provider.
Interviewee observations about staffing and human resources conveyed a mix of frustration
and resignation:
Im not certain where to find the next generation of leaders, I only know they wont look
like me.
The current staff isnt qualified or motivated to support new library functions.
There is considerable uncertainty about the value of continuing investments in the traditional
durable goods of research librariescollections and facilitiesand the technologies that
support them:
Im not able to acquire additional print collections due to price increasesand am not
certain that they are worth the investment.
I dont have the space for these collections, and Im not sure theyre worth the effort to find it.
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Our infrastructure is ill adapted to new needsbuilt around old workflows and collections.
Intensity of Risks
When these risks are arrayed on a graph that accounts for their perceived impact and forecast
likelihood a visual heat map emerges highlighting risks that require significant mitigation.
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Mitigation
An inventory of the high risks prior to any mitigation is shown in figure 4 below. These are the high
risks that are perceived by library directors to constitute an immediate and debilitating threat to the
future of the research library. (Please note: Only risks identified as High in table 2 are included in
figures 4, 5 and 6; medium and low risks are not included.)
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Two of these relate to the changed value proposition resulting from the ascendancy of external
information hubs like Google and the resultant defection of the library user base. We do not
regard these as risks that individual libraries can reasonably hope to mitigaterather, they
demand joint action at the group and network level. We think the inattention (or lack of
responsiveness) to changing user expectations is an area that demands further reflection and will
reward immediate collective action. We think these risks are best addressed through
cooperativerather than localactions.
Many of the risks rated as high (impact and certainty) pertain to:
lack of critical skill sets for managing data sets, engaging directly with research faculty, or
retooling technological infrastructure
uncertainties about the appropriate qualifications for library managers who may require
skills developed in other sectors .
We believe that a significant number of these can be effectively managed on a local or group level
to reduce the impact or incidence of specific risk events. While some of the risks identified are
beyond the immediate control of research libraries, at least half of them can likely be mitigated
through some combination of local and cooperative actions.
We note that there are a handful of risks that, while not ranked as immediate or catastrophic
threats, are associated with the changing value of the librarys traditional assets:
If these underlying risks were addressed, a significant reallocation in library resources might
be achieved, resulting in a service profile that is more visible and valuable to the research
library clientele. In other words, some changes that are disruptive to the traditional
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organization of library operations at research institutions may ultimately revitalize the library
value proposition. These represent opportunities for a new generation of library leadership.
While many of the high risks identified in this study are inherent in the surrounding information
environment, legacy library technology is not one of them; rather it represents an obstacle to
effecting meaningful change in the librarys operations and value proposition. It is not obvious
that investment in renovating the librarys traditional technology platformupgrading or migrating
from one local system to anotherwill substantially reduce the systemic risks facing research
libraries. This is an area where less, rather than more, library investment may be needed.
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Residual Risks
The risks that remain high after these mitigations may be intractable, or mitigation might require
something more or something other than collective action among libraries, or it may be that an
adequate response is a change in goals rather than operational change.
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Amazoogle information environment. A more direct approach to the value proposition challenge is
to deploy new services within the academy that are in the flow of current networked research
practices. Presenting assets and services where the research library academic clientele do their
work might renew their view of and reliance on library services.
The other two residual risks are cultural ones:
Recruitment and retention of resources is difficult due to reduction in pool of
qualified candidates (Risk 9).
Conservative nature of library inhibits timely adaptation to changed
circumstances (Risk 14).
The pool of potential library workers might be very different after the library has restructured
traditional workflows in favor of a new emphasis on and investment in research support services.
That service set would attract a new generation and type of professional that emanates from a
variety of disciplines rather than traditional library or information school training. Deploying these
new professionals and support services in a parallel organizational structure may be the only way
to bypass the obstacles created by the conservative nature of todays library organizations.
Epilogue
In the eighteen months since this work was undertaken, our analysis has been used as the basis
for internal planning within OCLC Research as well as facilitated discussion in the broader library
community. Initially, our findings were met with resistance and skepticism. Library administrators
thought the risks were overstated and particularly resisted the idea that the library value
proposition was threatened. More recently there has been a general acceptance that these
challenges are real and need to be met with collective effort and a new vision of services. There is
some evidence 2 that research libraries are now confronting these risks and identifying
opportunities for cooperative action. In the absence of organizations within the U.S. library
community that can address strategy, operational requirements and implement change on a
system-wide basis some bolder institutions are implementing action plans at the local or regional
level fueled by the fiscal imperatives of the current dire economic times.
This is heartening but likely to be inadequate. Most institutions continue to direct resources in
traditional ways towards operations that are marginal to institutional and national research
priorities, towards processes and services that are ignored or undervalued by their clients and
towards staff activities that are driven more by legacy professional concerns than user needs. To
properly respond to the risks identified here, research libraries need to come together around an
action agenda aimed at improvement of the research enterprise they serve. Incremental revision of
traditional operational models will only hasten the movement of important new research services
to other entities within the academy, leaving the library with only the vestigial values of its bookdetermined legacy. It will look the same but everything will have changed.
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Notes
1
Carr, David. 2009. Stoking Fear Everywhere You Look. The New York Times (December 12).
Available online at: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/08/business/media/08carr.html
The deficiencies in the institutionally-organized research library model have been pointedly
addressed in
Maloney, Krisellen, Kristin Antelman, Kenning Arlitsch and John Butler. 2010. Future
Leaders' Views on Organizational Culture. Forthcoming in College and Research Libraries
(July). Preprint available online at:
http://www.ala.org/ala/mgrps/divs/acrl/publications/crljournal/preprints/MaloneyAntelman-Arl.pdf
Kenney, Anne. 2009. Approaching an Entity Crisis: Reconceiving Research Libraries in a
Multi-institutional Context. Presented at OCLC Research Distinguished Seminar Series, 23
September. Dublin, Ohio USA. Available online at:
http://www.oclc.org/research/dss/ppt/dss_kenney.pdf
New collaborative action is taking shape around
digital preservation and a shared repository infrastructure structure via HathiTrust
http://www.hathitrust.org and
National Science Foundations Sustainable Digital Data Preservation and Access Network
Partners (DataNet) http://www.nsf.gov/funding/pgm_summ.jsp?pims_id=503141
Cooperative print management projects are changing the approaches to physical collections
Western Regional Storage Trust initiative
http://cdlinfo.cdlib.org/blog/2009/11/03/mellon-planning-grant-awarded-to-uc-librariesfor-a-western-regional-storage-trust/
OCLC Research is collaborating with several library partners in a project funded by The
Andrew W. Mellon Foundation to explore cooperative service models for shared print and
digital repositories. http://www.slideshare.net/RLGPrograms/cloud-library-precipitatingchange-in-library-infrastructure
Center for Research Libraries and University of California Libraries print archiving effort
http://www.crl.edu/archiving-preservation/current-projects/shared-print-archive
Descriptive practice is getting approached differently in
Cornell and Columbia University Libraries partnership (known as 2CUL)
http://www.library.cornell.edu/news/091012/2cul
Decisions limiting further institutional investment in locally-managed systems are becoming
common and vendors are providing some relief via for instance
WorldCat Local http://www.oclc.org/worldcatlocal/default.htm
Summon http://www.serialsolutions.net/summon/
Finally, the recent consolidation of regional library consortia is a sign of the community
organizing itself into larger and potentially more capable systems
LYRASIS: http://www.lyrasis.org/About-Us.aspx
BCR announcement of discussions with LYRASIS:
http://www.bcr.org/publications/bcreview/2010/02/bcr-and-lyrasis-explore-newmember.html
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