Error Analysis
Error Analysis
There is no such thing as "human error"! This vague phrase does not describe the
source of error clearly. Careful description of sources of error allows future
experimenters to improve on your techniques. This long list of common sources of
error is meant to help you identify some of the common sources of error you might
encounter while doing experiments. If you find yourself stuck for words when
describing sources of error, this list may help. The list goes from the common to the
obscure.
distinguish distances to a precision much better than about half of its smallest scale
division (0.5 mm in this case). One of the best ways to obtain more precise
measurements is to use a null difference method instead of measuring a quantity
directly. Null or balance methods involve using instrumentation to measure the
difference between two similar quantities, one of which is known very accurately and
is adjustable. The adjustable reference quantity is varied until the difference is reduced
to zero. The two quantities are then balanced and the magnitude of the unknown
quantity can be found by comparison with the reference sample. With this method,
problems of source instability are eliminated, and the measuring instrument can be
very sensitive and does not even need a scale.
Failure to calibrate or check zero of instrument (systematic) - Whenever possible,
the calibration of an instrument should be checked before taking data. If a calibration
standard is not available, the accuracy of the instrument should be checked by
comparing with another instrument that is at least as precise, or by consulting the
technical data provided by the manufacturer. When making a measurement with a
micrometer, electronic balance, or an electrical meter, always check the zero reading
first. Re-zero the instrument if possible, or measure the displacement of the zero
reading from the true zero and correct any measurements accordingly. It is a good idea
to check the zero reading throughout the experiment.
Physical variations (random) - It is always wise to obtain multiple measurements
over the entire range being investigated. Doing so often reveals variations that might
otherwise go undetected. If desired, these variations may be cause for closer
examination, or they may be combined to find an average value.
Parallax (systematic or random) - This error can occur whenever there is some
distance between the measuring scale and the indicator used to obtain a measurement.
If the observer's eye is not squarely aligned with the pointer and scale, the reading
may be too high or low (some analog meters have mirrors to help with this
alignment).
Instrument drift (systematic) - Most electronic instruments have readings that drift
over time. The amount of drift is generally not a concern, but occasionally this source
of error can be significant and should be considered.
Lag time and hysteresis (systematic) - Some measuring devices require time to reach
equilibrium, and taking a measurement before the instrument is stable will result in a
measurement that is generally too low. The most common example is taking
temperature readings with a thermometer that has not reached thermal equilibrium
with its environment. A similar effect is hysteresis where the instrument readings lag
behind and appear to have a "memory" effect as data are taken sequentially moving up
or down through a range of values. Hysteresis is most commonly associated with
materials that become magnetized when a changing magnetic field is applied.
Standards
In order to make meaningful measurements in science we need standards of commonly
measured quantities, such as those of mass, length and time. These standards are as
follows:
1.
The kilogram is the mass of a cylinder of platinum-iridium alloy kept at the International
Bureau of Weights and Measures in Paris. By 2018, however, this standard may be
defined in terms of fundamental constants. For further information
read: http://www.nature.com/news/kilogram-conflict-resolved-at-last1.18550 .
2. The metre is defined as the length of the path travelled by light in a vacuum during a
time interval of 1/299 792 458 of a second. (Note that the effect of this definition is to
fix the speed of light in a vacuum at exactly 299 792 458 ms-1).
3. The second is the duration of 9 192 631 770 periods of the radiation corresponding to
the transition between the two hyperfine levels of the ground state of the caesium 133
atom.
It is necessary for all such standards to be constant, accessible and easily reproducible.
SI Units
Scientists all over the world use the same system of units to measure physical quantities.
This system is the International System of Units, universally abbreviated SI (from the
French Le Systme International d'Units). This is the modern metric system of
measurement. The SI was established in 1960 by the 11th General Conference on Weights
and Measures (CGPM, Confrence Gnrale des Poids et Mesures). The CGPM is the
international authority that ensures wide dissemination of the SI and modifies the SI as
necessary to reflect the latest advances in science and technology.
Thus, the kilogram, metre and second are the SI units of mass, length and time
respectively. They are abbreviated as kg, m and s. Various prefixes are used to help
express the size of quantities eg a nanometre = 10-9 of a metre; a gigametre =
109 metres. See the table of prefixes below.
Table 1. SI prefixes
Factor
Name
Symbol
Factor
Name
Symbol
1024
yotta
10-1
deci
1021
zetta
10-2
centi
1018
exa
10-3
milli
1015
peta
10-6
micro
1012
tera
10-9
nano
109
giga
10-12
pico
106
mega
10-15
femto
103
kilo
10-18
atto
102
hecto
10-21
zepto
101
deka
da
10-24
yocto
Physical quantities are not generally independent of one another. Many quantities can be
expressed in terms of more fundamental quantities. The first three fundamental quantities
we will deal with are those of mass, length and time. Many derived quantities can be
expressed in terms of these three. For example, the derived quantity speed can be
expressed as length/time.
Note that there are seven fundamental quantities in all. The other four are: current,
thermodynamic temperature, amount of substance and luminous intensity. We will deal
with these as we need them.
Dimensions
The expression of a derived quantity in terms of fundamental quantities is called the
dimension of the derived quantity. The symbol M is used to denote the dimension of mass,
as is L for length and T for time.
So, for example, to determine the dimensions of the derived quantity speed, we would look
at the formula for speed, namely:
speed = distance/time
The dimensions of speed are then:
[speed] = LT-1
Dimensions can be used to check the correctness of an equation. The dimensions of the left
hand side of the equation must equal the dimensions of the right hand side. Dimensions
can also be used to verify that different mathematical expressions for a given quantity are
equivalent.
Question: Given the formulas for the following derived quantities, calculate the
dimensions of each quantity.
a.
velocity = displacement/time
b.
c.
d.
e.
SIGNIFICANT FIGURES
Since the precision of all measuring instruments is limited, the number of digits that can be
assumed as known for any measurement is also limited. When making a measurement,
read the instrument to its smallest scale division. Estimate within a part of a division. The
figures you write down for the measurement are called significant figures.
In Physics, if you write 3.0, you are stating that you were able to estimate the first decimal
place of the quantity and you are implying an error of 0.05 units. If you just write 3, you
are stating that you were unable to determine the first decimal place and you are implying
an error of 0.5 units.
It is very important that you do not overstate the precision of a measurement or of a
calculated quantity. A calculated quantity cannot have more significant figures than
the measurements or supplied data used in the calculation. So, for example, if the
length, breadth & height of a rectangular prism is each known to 2 significant figures, the
volume calculated from these figures cannot have more than 2 significant figures. Lets say
the volume = 3.7cm x 2.9cm x 5.1cm = 54.723 cm3. You would state the volume as
55cm3 (2 significant figures only). Note that we have rounded the volume up to the nearest
whole number in this case.
Zeros
Zeros between the decimal point and the first non-zero digit are not significant. eg
0.00035 has 2 significant figures.
Zeros that round off a large number are not significant. eg 35,000 has 2 significant
figures.
Zeros at the end of a string of decimals are significant. eg 0.5500 has 4 significant
figures. The last 2 digits are meaningful here. The measurement is 0.5500 not 0.5501
or 0.5499.
Zeros in between non-zero digits are significant. eg 0.7001 has 4 significant figures.
The first zero is not significant but the next two are
(i) Accuracy of a result or experimental procedure can refer to the percentage difference
between the experimental result and the accepted value. The stated uncertainty in an
experimental result should always be greater than this percentage accuracy.
(ii) Accuracy is also associated with the inherent uncertainty in a measurement. We can
express the accuracy of a measurement explicitly by stating the estimated uncertainty or
implicitly by the number of significant figures given. For example, we can measure a small
distance with poor accuracy using a metre rule, or with much greater accuracy using a
micrometer. Accurate measurements do not ensure an experiment is valid or reliable. For
example consider an experiment for finding g in which the time for a piece of paper to fall
once to the floor is measured very accurately. Clearly this experiment would not be valid or
reliable (unless it was carried out in vacuum).
The precision of a measuring device is limited by the finest division on its scale.
Note too, that a highly precise measurement is not necessarily an accurate one. As
indicated in the first definition of accuracy above, accuracy is the extent to which a
measured value agrees with the "true" or accepted value for a quantity. In scientific
experiments, we aim to obtain results that are both accurate and precise. The section
on errors below will hopefully further clarify the four important terms defined in these last
two sections of notes - accuracy, reliability, precision & validity.
Experiment B
9.8 0.2 m/s2
9.8 2%
Experiment C
3.5 2.5 m/s2
3.5 71%
We can say that Experiment A is more reliable (or precise) than Experiment B because
its relative error is smaller and therefore if the experiment was repeated we would be likely
to get a value for g which is very close to the one already obtained. That is, Experiment
A has results that are very repeatable (reproducible). Experiment B, however, is much
more accurate than Experiment A, since its value of g is much closer to the accepted
value. Clearly, Experiment C is neither accurate nor reliable.
In terms of validity, we could say that Experiment B is quite valid since its result is very
accurate and reasonably reliable repeating the experiment would obtain reasonably similar
results. Experiment A is not valid, since its result is inaccurate and Experiment C is
invalid since it is both inaccurate and unreliable.
How do you improve the reliability of an experiment? Clearly, you need to make the
experimental results highly reproducible. You need to reduce the relative error (or
spread) in the results as much as possible. To do this you must reduce the random
errors by: (i) using appropriate measuring instruments in the correct manner (eg use a
micrometer screw gauge rather than a metre ruler to measure the diameter of a small ball
bearing); and (ii) taking the mean of multiple measurements.
To improve the accuracy and validity of an experiment you need to keep all variables
constant other than those being investigated, you must eliminate all systematic errors by
careful planning and performance of the experiment and you must reduce random errors as
much as possible by taking the mean of multiple measurements.
DETERMINATION OF ERRORS
All experimental science involves the measurement of quantities and the reporting of those
measurements to other people. We have already seen that stating the absolute and relative
errors in our measurements allows people to decide the degree to which our experimental
results are reliable. This in turn helps people to decide whether our results are valid or not.
Clearly then it is important for all scientists to understand the nature and sources of errors
and to understand how to calculate errors in quantities. A whole branch of mathematics has
been devoted to error theory. Methods exist to estimate the size of the error in a result,
calculated from any number of measurements, using any combination of mathematical
operations. We will investigate a few of these methods appropriate for high school Physics
courses.
Experimental Errors
Variations will occur in any series of measurements taken with a suitably sensitive
measuring instrument. The variations in different readings of a measurement are usually
referred to as experimental errors. They are not to be confused with mistakes. Such
variations are normal.
Random Errors
Lets say we use a micrometer screw gauge to measure the diameter of a piece of copper
wire. The micrometer allows us to read down to 0.01mm. We may obtain a set of readings
in mm such as: 0.73, 0.71, 0.75, 0.71, 0.70, 0.72, 0.74, 0.73, 0.71 and 0.73.
The variation in these figures is probably mainly due to the fact that the wire is not of
uniform diameter along its length. However, the variation could also be caused by slight
variations in the measuring technique closing the jaws of the micrometer more or less
tightly from one measurement to the next. The experimenter may have occasionally read
the scale at an angle other than perpendicular to the scale, thus introducing parallax error
into the results. Such factors as these cause random variations in the measurements and
are therefore called Random Errors. The question we must ask is: How do we take
account of the effects of random errors in analysing and reporting our
experimental results?
Distribution Curves
If we had taken say 50 readings of the diameter of the wire instead of just 10, we could use
our knowledge of Statistics to draw a frequency histogram of our measurements, showing
the number of times each particular value occurs. This would be very helpful to anyone
reading our results since at a glance they could then see the nature of the distribution of our
readings. If the number of readings we take is very high, so that a fine subdivision of the
scale of readings can be made, the histogram approaches a continuous curve and this is
called a distribution curve.
If the errors are truly random, the particular distribution curve we will get is the bellshaped Normal (or Gaussian) Distribution shown below.
The readings or measured values of a quantity lie along the x-axis and the frequencies
(number of occurrences) of the measured values lie along the y-axis. The Normal Curve is a
smooth, continuous curve and is symmetrical about a central x value. The peak in
frequency occurs at this central x value.
The basic idea here is that if we could make an infinite number of readings of a quantity and
graph the frequencies of readings versus the readings themselves, random errors would
produce as many readings above the actual or true value of the quantity as below
the true value and the graph that we would end up with is the Normal Curve. The value
that occurs at the centre of the Normal Curve, called the mean of the normal distribution,
can then be taken as a very good estimate of the true value of a measured quantity.
So, we can start to answer the question we asked above. The effect of random errors
on a measurement of a quantity can be largely nullified by taking a large number
of readings and finding their mean. The formula for the mean is, of course, as shown
below:
Examine the set of micrometer readings we had for the diameter of the copper wire. Let us
calculate their mean, the deviation of each reading from the mean and the squares of the
deviations from the mean.
Reading
Deviation
Squares of Deviations
x (mm)
From Mean
From Mean
0.73
+ 0.01
0.0001
0.71
- 0.01
0.0001
0.75
+ 0.03
0.0009
0.71
- 0.01
0.0001
0.70
- 0.02
0.0004
0.72
0.00
0.0000
0.74
+ 0.02
0.0004
0.73
+ 0.01
0.0001
0.71
- 0.01
0.0001
0.73
+ 0.01
0.0001
For the moment we will only be interested in the first two columns above. A glance at the
deviations shows the random nature of the scattering.
The formula for the mean yields:
The mean is calculated as 0.723 mm but since there are only two significant figures in the
readings, we can only allow two significant figures in the mean. So, the mean is 0.72 mm.
Once we have the mean, we can calculate the figures in the 2nd column of the Table above.
These are the deviation of each reading from the mean.
We can use the maximum deviation from the mean, 0.03 mm, as the maximum probable
error (MPE) in the diameter measurements. So, we can state the diameter of the copper
wire as 0.72 0.03 mm (a 4% error). This means that the diameter lies between 0.69
mm and 0.75mm.
An interesting thought occurs: What if all the readings of the diameter of the wire had
worked out to be the same? What would we use as an estimate of the error then?
In that case, we would look at the limit of reading of the measuring instrument and use
half of that limit as an estimate of the probable error. So, as stated above, our micrometer
screw gauge had a limit of reading of 0.01mm. Half the limit of reading is therefore
0.005mm. The diameter would then be reported as 0.72 0.005 mm (a 0.7% error). This
means that the diameter lies between 0.715 mm and 0.725 mm. Note that we still only
quote a maximum of two significant figures in reporting the diameter.
It is also worth emphasizing that in the stated value of any measurement only the last
digit should be subject to error. For example, you would not state the diameter of the
wire above as 0.723 0.030 mm because the error is in the 2nd decimal place. This makes
the 3rd decimal place meaningless. If you do not know the 2nd decimal place for certain,
there is no point stating a 3rd decimal place in the value of the quantity. So, do not write an
answer to 5 decimal places just because your calculator says so. Think about how many
figures are really significant.
We can now complete our answer to the question: How do we take account of the
effects of random errors in analysing and reporting our experimental results? At
high school level, it is sufficient to:
Take a large number of readings at least 10, where time and practicality permit.
Calculate the mean of the readings as a reasonable estimate of the true value of the
quantity.
Use the largest deviation of any of the readings from the mean as the maximum
probable error in the mean value.
If all the readings are the same, use half the limit of reading of the measuring
instrument as the MPE in the result.
Standard Deviation
Now, for those who would like to go a little further in error theory, we can turn our attention
to the third column of figures in the Table above. These figures are the squares of the
deviations from the mean. Without going into any theoretical explanation, it is common
practice for scientists to use a quantity called the sample standard deviation of a set of
readings as an estimate of the error in a measured quantity. The standard
deviation, lower case sigma), is calculated from the squares of the deviations from
the mean using the following formula:
And
Therefore,
We could therefore report the diameter of the copper wire as 0.72 0.016 mm (a 2%
error). This means that the diameter lies between 0.704 mm and 0.736 mm. Note that we
still only quote a maximum of two significant figures in reporting the diameter.
Why do scientists use standard deviation as an estimate of the error in a measured
quantity? Well, the standard deviation of a set of experimental data is a reliable statistical
measure of the variability or spread of the data from the mean. A high standard deviation
indicates that the data is spread out over a large range of values, whereas a low standard
deviation indicates that the data values tend to be very close to the mean.
Also, standard deviation gives us a measure of the percentage of data values that lie within
set distances from the mean. If a data distribution is approximately normal then about 68%
of the data values are within 1 standard deviation of the mean (mathematically, ,
where is the arithmetic mean), about 95% are within two standard deviations ( 2),
and about 99.7% lie within 3 standard deviations ( 3). So, when we quote the
standard deviation as an estimate of the error in a measured quantity, we know that our
error range around our mean (true) value covers the majority of our data values. In other
words, it can give us a level of confidence in our error estimate. If you wish, you could
quote the error estimate as two standard deviations.
Systematic Errors
Systematic errors are errors which occur to the same extent in each one of a series of
measurements. Causes of systematic error include:
it introduces a systematic error into the results. A person sitting in the passenger seat
of a car for instance may glance at the speedometer and think the driver is going above
the speed limit by a couple of km/hr, when in fact the driver, sitting directly in front of
the speedometer, can see that the speed of the car is right on the speed limit.
The instrument may have a built in error. A simple example is zero error, where
the instrument has not been correctly set to zero before commencing the measuring
procedure. An ammeter for instance may show a reading of 0.2A when no current is
flowing. So, as you use the instrument to measure various currents each of your
measurements will be in error by 0.2A. The ammeter needle should have been reset to
zero by using the adjusting screw before the measurements were taken.
External conditions can introduce systematic errors. A metal rule calibrated for
use at 25oC will only be accurate at that temperature. If you use this rule say at 5oC it
will produce readings that are consistently larger than they should be since at the lower
temperature the metal will have contracted and the distance between each scale division
will be smaller than it should be. Knowing the expansion coefficient of the metal would
allow the experimenter to correct for this error.
Use all measuring instruments correctly and under the appropriate conditions.
Check for zero error. This can include performing test measurements where a standard
or known quantity is measured to ensure that the instrument is giving accurate results.
For example, a thermometer could be checked at the temperatures of melting ice and
steam at 1 atmosphere pressure.
V = 4/3 r3
Using this formula, the value for the volume of the ball bearing is found to
be 3625.50mm3.
Note that the only measured quantity used in this calculation is the radius but it appears
raised to the power of 3. The formula is really:
V = 4/3 r x r x r
So, % error in volume = % error in r + % error in r + % error in r
Therefore, % error in volume = 0.5% + 0.5% + 0.5% = 1.5%
The volume of the ball bearing is therefore 3625.50mm3 1.5% or 3625.50mm3
54.38mm3.
Now we look at the number of significant figures to check that we have not overstated our
level of precision. There are only 3 significant figures in the radius measurement. We
should therefore have only 3 significant figures in the volume. Writing the volume figure in
more appropriate units achieves this nicely.
Changing mm3 to cm3, we have that the volume of the ball bearing is (3.63
0.05)cm3.
Top
REJECTION OF READINGS
When is it OK to reject measurements from your experimental results? This is a
contentious question. There are many empirical rules that have been set up to help decide
when to reject observed measurements. In the end, however, the decision should always
come down to the personal judgement of the experimenter (1) and then only after careful
consideration of the situation.
Where an actual mistake is made by the experimenter in taking a measurement or the
measuring instrument malfunctions and this is noticed at the time, the measurement can be
discarded. A record of the fact that the measurement was discarded and an explanation of
why it was done should be recorded by the experimenter.
There may be other situations that arise where an experimenter believes he/she has
grounds to reject a measurement. For instance, if we make 50 observations which cluster
within 1% of the mean and then we obtain a reading which lies at a separation of 10%, we
would be fairly safe in assuming that this reading was caused by some sort of mistake on
the part of the experimenter or a failure of the measuring instrument or some other change
in the conditions of the experiment. We would be fairly safe in rejecting this measurement
from our results. (1)
"The necessity is to build up confidence in the main set of measurements before
feeling justified in doing any rejecting." (1) Thus, there is no justification for taking
two readings and then rejecting the third because it is vastly different to the first
two. "Unless the situation is absolutely clear cut it is by far the best to retain all
the readings whether you like them or not." (1)
We always do well to remember that many of the greatest discoveries in Physics
have taken the form of outlying measurements. (1)
Reference:
(1) Baird, D.C. (1962). Experimentation: An Introduction To Measurement Theory And
Experiment Design, Prentice-Hall Inc, New Jersey
Top
The Three Ms
Mean
Median
The score that divides the results in half - the middle value.
Examples:
Odd amount of numbers: Find the median of 5 feet 6 inches, 5 feet 7 inches, 5 feet 10
inches, 5 feet 8 inches, 5 feet 8 inches.
Line up your numbers from smallest to largest: 5 feet 6 inches, 5 feet 7 inches, 5 feet 8
inches, 5 feet 8 inches, 5 feet 10 inches.
The median is: 5 feet 8 inches (the number in the middle).
Mode
The most common result (the most frequent value) of a test, survey, or experiment.
Example:
Find the mode of 5 feet 6 inches, 5 feet 7 inches, 5 feet 10 inches, 5 feet 8 inches, 5
feet 8 inches.
Put the numbers is order to make it easier to visualize: 5 feet 6 inches, 5 feet 7 inches,
5 feet 8 inches, 5 feet 8 inches, 5 feet 10 inches.
Significant Difference
Significance
The measure of whether the results of research were due to chance. The more
statistical significance assigned to an observation, the less likely the observation
occurred by chance.
p-value
The way in which significance is reported statistically (i.e. p<.01 means that there is a
less than 1% chance that the results of a study are due to random chance). Note that
generally p-values need to be fairly low (.01 and .05 are common) in order for a study to
make any strong claims based on the results.
Example:
Correlation
Correlation
The degree to which two factors appear to be related. Correlation should not be
confused with causation. Just because two factors are reported as being correlated, you
cannot say that one factor causes the other. For example, you might find a correlation
between going to the library at least 40 times per semester and getting high scores on
tests. However, you cannot say from these findings what about going to the library, or
what about people who go to libraries often, is responsible for higher test scores.
r-value
The way in which correlation is reported statistically (a number between -1 and +1).
Generally, r-values should be >+/-.3 in order to report a significant correlation.