Automated Support and Resistance
Automated Support and Resistance
NEW TECHNIQUES
Automated
Support And
Resistance
Stocks & Commodities V16:5 (225-232): Automated Support And Resistance by Mel Widner, Ph.D.
BRAD WALKER
Stocks & Commodities V16:5 (225-232): Automated Support And Resistance by Mel Widner, Ph.D.
720
1000
710
700
690
680
SUPPORT LEVEL
670
MINIMUM CENTRAL VALUE
660
11/14/96
11/12/96
11/08/96
11/06/96
11/04/96
10/31/96
10/29/96
10/25/96
10/23/96
10/21/96
10/17/96
10/15/96
650
RESISTANCE LEVELS
SUPPORT LEVELS
900
800
700
600
500
400
1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
NUMBER IN LIST
FIGURE 1: OEX CHART PATTERN. OEX chart pattern illustrating support and
resistance levels is defined here using an isolated high and low method with a
lookback period of N = nine bars.
FIGURE 2: SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE TURNING POINTS FOR PRIOR FIVEYEAR PERIOD FOR THE OEX. Values were rearranged in order by magnitude to
show clusters of values that are nearly the same value. Once established, these
values are frequently revisited and repeated.
riod becomes too long, then signals can come too late. Some
balance is needed, depending upon the time horizon and style
of the trader. The choice of N = 9 is a good compromise.
Figure 1 shows an example of support and resistance levels
as determined by this method. Support and resistance values
are not established until four bars after the peak or trough
value. Each level is then projected forward for future reference. Successive support values must be separated by at least
five bars. Successive resistance values must also be separated
by at least five bars. Resistance and support levels can be
closer and theoretically could occur on the same bar, although this does not occur frequently. The values are often
close; however, the periods can overlap, as was the case for
the example in Figure 1. An interesting observation is that
penetration of resistance on November 6, 1996, was accompanied by a move that was larger than normal. This is seen
frequently. Usually, prices either reverse or break through a
level and do not spend much time there (essentially, the
opposite of congestion).
If youre skeptical about technical analysis, consider the
data shown in Figure 2. The OEX was analyzed for about the
past five years, and peaks and trough values were determined
using the nine-day period as described above. Support levels
and resistance levels were separated into their two respective
groups. Since price values bounce around, it is sometimes
difficult to determine if prices return to previous levels, since
there may be many intermediate peaks and troughs.
For a clearer comparison, simply take the sequential list of
turning points and rearrange them in order of increasing
price. If a price returns to a previous level, then it will be
adjacent to that level in the rearranged list. Results were
plotted in Figure 2. Turning point values are clustered for the
most part and not uniformly distributed. This is not always
the case, as there are exceptions during long steady trends and
breakouts, but it does happen frequently.
The clusters occur in differing numbers from groups of two
Stocks & Commodities V16:5 (225-232): Automated Support And Resistance by Mel Widner, Ph.D.
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
S6
R1
R2
R3
R4
R5
R6
665
OEX
648
631
614
597
580
Support
levels
563
100
546
50
Resistance levels
529
1/1/96
1/31/96
3/1/96
4/1/96
5/1/96
5/31/96
0
7/1/96
FIGURE 3: RECENT OEX PRICE HISTORY ILLUSTRATING THE PLOTTING METHOD AND WSO AND WRO
OSCILLATORS. The method is automatic. Once established, support and resistance levels persist until they
are replaced and flushed from the queue.
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
S6
R1
R2
R3
R4
R5
R6
890
OEX
858
826
794
763
731
699
100
667
50
Stocks & Commodities V16:5 (225-232): Automated Support And Resistance by Mel Widner, Ph.D.
SIDEBAR FIGURE 1: EXCEL SPREADSHEET. Heres how to calculate the methods shown in Widners
article.
where all values are for the current time and C = the current
close. The formula uses integer arithmetic to determine if
close is above or below a certain level. For those not familiar
Stocks & Commodities V16:5 (225-232): Automated Support And Resistance by Mel Widner, Ph.D.
Stocks & Commodities V16:5 (225-232): Automated Support And Resistance by Mel Widner, Ph.D.
Stocks & Commodities V16:5 (225-232): Automated Support And Resistance by Mel Widner, Ph.D.
SUMMARY
A new technique can be applied to an old,
proven method. Support and resistance levels
are reference points for price behavior. As
prices move to these reference points, the values
are tested. There is a good chance the price will
reverse at or near that level, as opposed to some
other value. If it breaks through the level, there is a
good chance it will continue on. This information
can be the basis for trading strategies and decisions.
Falling back to the mechanics analogy, prices
testing support and resistance can be likened to
a rubber ball hitting a pane of glass. Sometimes
it bounces off and sometimes it breaks through.
The outcome depends upon the strength of the
glass (support or resistance level) and the momentum of the ball (prices). Newton would
have had fun with the stock market!
SUMMARY OF RESULTS
Total net profit
Percent gain/loss
Initial investment
Current position
Buy/hold profit
Buy/hold pct gain/loss
Total closed trades
Avg. profit per trade
Total long trades
Winning long trades
Total winning trades
Amt. of winning trades
Average win
Largest win
Average length of win
Longest winning trade
Most consecutive wins
Total bars out
Longest out period
System close drawdown
System open drawdown
Max open trade drawdown
8,169.69
816.97
1,000.00
Long
4,613.91
461.39
110
71.86
110
70
70
8,816.50
125.95
1,518.80
27.09
90
10
1,344
97
0.00
-3.83
-315.19
265.07
57.42
796.43
9/12/97
Days in test
Annual B/H pct. gain/loss
5,193
32.43
Commissions paid
Ave. win/Ave. loss ratio
Total short trades
Winning short trades
Total losing trades
Amount of losing trades
Average loss
Largest loss
Average length of loss
Longest losing trade
Most consecutive losses
Average length out
Profit/loss index
Reward/risk index
Buy/hold index
0.00
2.95
0
0
40
-1,708.30
-42.71
-222.13
14.10
33
4
12.11
82.71
99.95
82.81
FIGURE 9: Heres a summary of results from a trading system based upon WRO and WSO oscillators.
Consistent, above-average performance is possible here following straightforward trading rules.
System parameters were optimized.
S&C