NDP (37%) Poised to Win over Split Wildrose (26%)
and PCs (24%), But Half (48%) of Albertans say
they could
Change Their Vote before E-Day
Liberals (9%) and Alberta Party (3%) Trail
Public Release Date: Thursday, April 30, 2015, 12:00 PM (MDT)
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NDP (37%) Poised to Win over Split Wildrose (26%)
and PCs (24%), But Half (48%) of Albertans say they
could
Change Their Vote before E-Day
Liberals (9%) and Alberta Party (3%) Trail
Toronto, ON As the Alberta election campaign enters its final weekend before
E-Day, a new Ipsos poll conducted for Global News and Corus Entertainment has
revealed that the NDP are taking full advantage of a divided right and would claim
victory over the incumbent PC and challenger Wildrose, but that 48% of Albertans
admit that they could still change their mind before E-Day and vote for a different
party.
If the election were held tomorrow, 37% of decided voters would vote for the NDP
led by Rachel Notley who has secured the progressive vote in Alberta. In
comparison, the right is split between Brian Jeans Wildrose Alliance Party at 26%
of the decided vote, and Premier Jim Prentices Progressive Conservatives at 24%.
If these two parties were united, a combined party would likely cruise to victory
reminiscent of the advantage the Federal Liberals had during the 1993 federal
election.
The Liberal Party of Alberta under David Swann would receive 9% of the vote,
while the Alberta Party led by Greg Clark would receive just 3% of the vote. One
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percent (1%) would vote for some other party. One in ten (8%) remain undecided
with just days left before going to the polls.
The wildcard in this race is that only 52% of those who chose a party say that
theyre dead set in their voting choice and nothing will change their mind, while
48% say they still havent fully made up their mind and could switch to another
party. Examining this by party reveals that Wildrose supporters are most
committed to their party, while PC and NDP support is softer. Liberal and Alberta
Party supporters are most likely to switch their vote.
NDP supporters -- 51% have made up their mind, while 49% could
change their mind.
Wildrose supporters 64% have made up their mind, while 36% could
change their mind.
PC supporters 54% have made up their mind, while 46% could change
their mind.
Liberal supporters only 25% have made up their mind, while 75% could
change their mind.
Alberta Party supporters 31% have made up their mind, while 70%
could change their mind.
No Clear Favourite as Second Choice
The data reveal that there is no clear favourite for second choice, if Albertans do
end up changing their mind before Election Day. Overall, 21% would vote Wildrose
second, while similar proportions would vote for the NDP (18%) or Liberals (17%)
second. Fewer would choose the PCs (12%) second or Alberta Party (9%) second,
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while 5% would vote for some other party. Nearly two in ten (15%) dont know
who they would vote second or would not vote (2%).
Examining where support might move and from which party shows the following:
Among NDP supporters 31% would choose the Liberals second, while others
would choose the Wildrose (29%), PCs (14%), Alberta Party (8%) or some other
party (5%) second. One in ten (12%) dont know who theyd switch to, and 1%
just wouldnt vote in this case.
Among Wildrose supporters 33% would vote for the NDP second, while
others would vote for the PCs (21%), Alberta Party (15%), Liberals (9%) or some
other party. 5% wouldnt vote, and 16% dont know who theyd switch to.
Among PC supporters 33% would switch to the Wildrose, while 19% would
vote for the NDP second. The Liberals (13%), Alberta Party (7%) or other parties
(4%) would not seriously benefit from PC vote switchers, while 23% of PC voters
dont know who they would choose second, and 2% wouldnt vote if they changed
their mind.
Among Liberal supporters 38% would change to the NDP, while 20% would
vote Wildrose second, 17% the PCs second, 8% some other party and 2% the
Alberta Party. Two in ten (15%) dont know who they would switch to.
Among Alberta Party supporters half (49%) would vote NDP second,
followed by the Liberals (19%), Wildrose (15%), PCs (10%), or some other party
(4%). Four percent (4%) dont know who they would vote for second.
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Half of Albertans Think PCs will Win
Despite the fact that the NDP have a solid lead heading into the final days of the
campaign, half (50%) of Albertans still think the Progressive Conservatives will
win the election on Tuesday once all the votes are counted. Only 21% actually
think the NDP will win, while fewer think the Wildrose will win (17%). Albertans
dont believe the Liberals (3%), Alberta Party (2%) or some other Party (2%) has
much of a chance of winning the election, and 5% doesnt know who will win.
Interestingly PC voters are most likely to think their own party will win (90%), but
fewer Wildrose (50%), NDP (47%), Liberal (29%) or Alberta Party (26%) voters
actually think their own party will win the Election. Given that PC voters are most
likely to think theyll win, this could turn into complacency on Election Day if
many stay home believing victory is secure.
Deeper Dive on the Vote
Examining the vote among key demographic groups within the province reveals:
In Edmonton, the NDP (53%) have a strong lead over the PCs (21%),
Wildrose (12%), Liberals (11%), and the Alberta Party (3%).
In Calgary, a close race ensues among the PCs (29%), NDP (29%) and
Wildrose (25%), while the Liberals (9%), Alberta Party (6%) and others (2%)
trail.
In the rest of Alberta, the NDP (34%) and Wildrose (33%) are close, with
the PCs (22%), Liberals (8%), Alberta Party (2%) or other parties (2%)
behind.
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Among women, the NDP (39%) have a strong lead over the PCs (25%),
Wildrose (21%), Liberals (10%), Alberta Party (4%) and others (1%).
Among men, the NDPs (35%) advantage over the Wildrose (31%) is
smaller, while the PCs (22%), Liberals (8%), Alberta Party (3%) and others
(2%) lag.
Among the key aged 55+ community, the race is very tight among the
Wildrose (33%), NDP (31%) and PCs (29%), while the Alberta Party (3%),
Liberals (2%) and other parties (1%) are well behind.
Among those aged 35 to 54, the NDP (34%) has a slight edge over the PCs
(30%) and Wildrose (20%), while the Liberals (11%), Alberta Party (2%) and
others (2%) are behind.
Among the 18 to 34 demographic, the NDP (46%) lead over the Wildrose
(25%) and PCs (12%) is huge but this group doesnt show up to vote like
the older cohorts do. The Liberals (12%), Alberta Party (5%) and other
parties (1%) are not competitive.
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between April 27 th and 29th, 2015 on behalf
of Global News and Corus Entertainment. For this survey, a sample of 761 adults living in Alberta was
interviewed. 301 interviews were conducted by live operator telephone interviewing (including 20%
cellphone sample), and 460 interviews were online from the Ipsos I-Say panel. Weighting was
then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the
adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample
universe. The precision of polls where online interviewing was employed is measured using a
credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/ - 4.1 percentage points, 19 times out
of 20, had all Albertan adults been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the
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population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not
limited to coverage error, and measurement error.
-30For more information on this news release, please contact:
Jamie Duncan
Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs
(403) 969-3235
For full tabular results, please visit our website at www.ipsos-na.com.
News Releases are available at: http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/
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