FM All Exercises
FM All Exercises
Financial Mathematics
Exercises
S1 2012
17 March 2012
Contents
1 Time Value of Money and Cash Flow Valuation
1.1
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1.2
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Level Annuities
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ii
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10
10
2 Life Contingencies
11
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13
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14
14
14
14
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14
15
Loan Repayments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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Investments
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16
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18
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19
Price Sensitivity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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19
19
4.2
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20
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20
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Immunisation
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5 Derivatives
5.1
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Options
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iv
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Lognormal Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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6.2
IID Returns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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7 Solutions to Exercises
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7.1
Module 1
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7.2
Module 2
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7.3
Module 3
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7.4
Module 4
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7.5
Module 5
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7.6
Module 6
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82
Module 1
Time Value of Money and Cash Flow
Valuation
1.1
Exercise 1.1:
i = 0.05,
th
year by
$100
i = 0.05.
Exercise 1.2:
grow to
$275
in
to accumulate to
$275
at
$200
5 years?
Exercise 1.3:
Exercise 1.4:
now of
$275
$200
5%?
i = 0.05,
in 5 years?
Exercise 1.5:
[int5] If
$150
grows to
$240
in
$1000
grow to over
Exercise 1.6:
at least
5%
8%
for the following 10 years, what is the most one must invest today to
Exercise 1.7:
years followed by
Exercise 1.8:
5%
8%
t=0
and
t = 3.
i = 0.10,
Exercise 1.9:
(assuming
7.7217
at time
t=0
i = 0.05):
Exercise 1.10:
[int11] If
$100
is deposited at time
t=0
10% interest and $20 is withdrawn at t = 1 and 2, then how much can be withdrawn
at t = 3?
Exercise 1.11:
$100
accumulate to
$200
in 6
years?
Exercise 1.12:
11% per
deposited n years
today and another $30 in ve years into a fund paying simple interest of
year. Tina will make the same two deposits, but the $10 will be
from today and the $30 will be deposited
2n
an annual eective rate of 9.15%. At the end of 10 years, the accumulated amount
of Tina's deposits equals the accumulated amount of Joe's deposits. What is the
value of
n?
Exercise 1.13:
shows the annual eective interest rates being credited by an investment account,
by calendar year of investment. The investment year method is applicable for the
rst 3 years, after which a portfolio rate is used.
Calendar Year of
Investment
Investment
Year Rates
i1
10%
12%
8%
9%
7%
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
Calendar Year of
Portfolio Rates
i2
10%
5%
(x 2)%
11%
7%
Portfolio
Rate
i3
x%
10%
12%
6%
10%
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
8%
(x 1)%
6%
9%
10%
An investment of $100 is made at the beginning of years 1990, 1991, and 1992. The
total amount of interest credited by the fund during the year 1993 is equal to 28.40.
What is the value of
Exercise 1.14:
x?
[int19] You wish to buy a new home theatre system and have two
Option A.
Option B.
t = 0),
t = 1)
t = 0),
t = 1)
t = 2).
t = 2).
Exercise 1.15:
A.
B.
C.
Four annual payments, each of amount $425, the rst payment being made
after ve years
(c) Assume that an investor selects alternative B and that after ve years he wants
to compare his proceeds with the value of alternative C. Determine the value
of alternative C in 5 years time. What interest rate should you use?
Exercise 1.16:
t = 0)
at an interest rate of
Exercise 1.17:
[int6] If
Exercise 1.18:
[int14] (SOA Course 2 May 2001, Question 12) Bruce and Robbie
v = 0.94,
what are
and
i?
account and Robbie deposits $50 into his. Each account earns an annual eective
discount rate of
d.
X.
Exercise 1.19:
X.
X?
deposits $1000, $1000, and $2000 into her bank account and earns the same interest
rate as the implied rate on the promissory note. Assuming interest is compounded
semi-annually, determine how much extra money (in addition to the amount in her
bank account) she will need to redeem (repay) the note for its face value in 2 years
time.
Exercise 1.20:
Interest is credited quarterly, on the last day of each March, June, September and
December. Simple interest is paid for amounts on deposit for less than a quarter of
a year. In 2001, Maria made 4 deposits of $1000 into her trust account every 1st day
of March, June, September, December. By 31 December 2005, how much interest
will Maria have earned from these deposits?
Exercise 1.21:
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
F.
a force of interest of 5%
(a) Discuss dierences between the above interest rates by expressing each option
as eective rates of interest.
(b) How much will an investment of $10,000 accumulate to in
41
2
years based on
Exercise 1.22:
with
(a) Calculate the equivalent eective rate of interest for the period
t = 1 to t = 2.
(b) Calculate the equivalent eective rate of interest for the period
t = 2 to t = 3.
k.
After time
k,
i = 10%
that maximises
8%.
a(4).
0 t 4).
Exercise 1.24:
1.2
t = 4.
Exercise 1.23:
to time
t=2
Level Annuities
Exercise 1.25:
such that payments are $1000 p.a. for the rst 6 years and $400 p.a. for the next
4 years together with a lump sum of $2000 at the end of the 10 years. An interest
rate of 12% p.a convertible monthly is assumed.
(a) Find the present value of this annuity.
(b) Calculate the amount of the level annuity-immediate payable for 10 years
having the same present value as the payments in (a).
Exercise 1.26:
(F), Hope Institution (H), Love Trust (L) and Peace, Inc. (P). The total inheritance
is a series of level payments at the end of each year forever. During the rst 20 years,
F, H, and L share each payment equally. All payments after 20 years revert to P.
The present values of the shares of the four charities are known to be all equal.
What is the implied eective rate of interest?
Exercise 1.27:
$15,000 each. The rst loan payment is due 10 years from now. In order to accumulate the funds, she plans on making ten annual deposits of
eective annual interest of 6%. Having computed the least possible amount
(and
assuming she succeeded in her nancial mathematics course and thus it took her a
negligible amount of time), she immediately makes the rst deposit. Calculate
C.
Exercise 1.28:
Exercise 1.29:
Ed).
Exercise 1.30:
Exercise 1.31:
Exercise 1.32:
Exercise 1.33:
Exercise 1.34:
Exercise 1.35:
The
monthly payment was calculated using an eective annual interest rate of 3%. After making payments for 10 years, the insurance company decides to increase the
monthly payments for the remaining 15 years by changing the eective annual interest rate to 5%. By how much will the monthly payment increase?
Exercise 1.36:
[ann5] Find the present value of a set of cash ows which pay $100
at the end of year 1, $200 at the end of year 2, $100 at end of year 3, $200 at the end
of year 4, and so on ($100 at odd years, $200 at even), with the nal payment being
at the end of the 20th year. The interest rate is 5% p.a. semi-annual compounding.
Exercise 1.37:
payments of $18,000 per year at an eective discount rate of 10%; the rst payment
is due immediately.
the same eective rate of discount. What will be the size of the payments under the
new annuity?
Exercise 1.38:
[ann7] Broverman 5th Ed: 2.2.13 (2.2.13 in 4th Ed). Also solve for
the case if Smith repays the loan over 5 years (monthly payments).
Exercise 1.39:
Exercise 1.40:
Exercise 1.41:
1.3
(t) =
1
,
20t
t 0,
nd
s10 .
Exercise 1.42:
annuity-immediate where payments increase each year and payments are in arrears.
The initial payment is
P,
payment. The annual eective interest rate is 4%. Calculate the value of the future
payments (ie. the loan principal outstanding) after the ninth payment. Compare
your result with the initial loan amount and explain it. Is such a payment pattern
likely to exist in reality? Why?
Exercise 1.43:
increasing amount of income as she advances through her program but will need to
borrow to cover her university costs. Accordingly, she plans to borrow a decreasing
annual amount from a student credit loan during her 5 years at university, and to
repay the loan with increasing amounts for 15 years after graduation. She borrows
amounts
and
payment is paid at the beginning of her nal year. At the end of the rst year after
graduation she pays $500, then increases the amount by $200 each year until a nal
payment of $3300. If the eective annual interest rate assumed is 5%, determine
Exercise 1.44:
X.
[ann12] Paulo is saving madly to buy his rst home ten years from
now. He deposits to a fund each January 1 and July 1 for the years 2004 through
2014. The deposit he makes on each July 1 will be 10.25% greater than the one on
the immediately preceding January 1. The amount he deposits on each January 1
(except for January 1, 2004) will be the same amount as the deposit made on the
immediately preceding July 1. The fund will be credited with interest at a nominal
annual rate of 10%, compounded quarterly. On December 31, 2014, the fund will
have a balance of $110,000, an amount Paulo considers is enough for a home deposit
and other miscellaneous expenses. Determine Paulo's initial deposit to the fund.
Exercise 1.45:
Exercise 1.46:
Exercise 1.47:
(i)
(ii)
P, 2P, . . . , 10P
The annual eective interest rate is 7% for the rst 10 years and 5% thereafter.
Calculate
P.
Exercise 1.48:
the ination rate is a constant 3% p.a. Determine the (initial) annual payment from
a 20 year annuity-immediate which is purchased at the fair price with $10,000 in
the case of:
(a) a xed annuity (level payments)
(b) an ination-indexed annuity
(c) Show that (a) and (b) are equally fair. Explain your calculations.
Exercise 1.49:
= 0.05:
t.
Exercise 1.50:
Exercise 1.51:
Exercise 1.52:
Ed).
Exercise 1.53:
Exercise 1.54:
Ed).
Exercise 1.55:
Ed).
Exercise 1.56:
Ed).
Exercise 1.57:
Ed).
Exercise 1.58:
pays at an annual rate of 100, 200, . . . , 1000, given that the annual eective interest
rate is 5% and:
(a) payments are made annually in arrears
(b) payments are made monthly in arrears
(c) payments are made continuously
Exercise 1.59:
10
Module 2
Life Contingencies
Exercise 2.1:
[lif1]
(x),
bt
paying
at death at
x+t
where:
bt = e0.05t
For all
t,
it is given that
x+t = 0.01
and
t = 0.06.
and variance of
Z.
Exercise 2.2:
[lif2] Show that the following two denitions of the life annuity
are equivalent:
v k k px
ak+1 k px qx+k =
k=0
k=0
Interpret both sides of the equation and explain why it has to be true.
Exercise 2.3:
dx + Ax = 1
a
Exercise 2.4:
qx
0.10
0.05
0.10
0.20
0.40
0.70
1.00
Given a technical rate of interest of 5%, calculate by hand and using Excel:
1
Pr[K(0) = k], e0 , Pr[K(2) = k], e2 , A2 , 2 A2 , A1 , A2:3 , A2:3 , a2 , a2 , a2:3
2:3
11
ax
Exercise 2.5:
lives which are identical except that one is a smoker and the other is a non-smoker.
It is known that:
1.
2.
cx
and
0 x < ,
c>1
0 x < ,
and
where
is a constant
Calculate the probability that the remaining lifetime of the smoker exceeds that of
the non-smoker.
Check for the reasonableness of your answer.
12
Module 3
Loans and Investments
3.1
Loan Repayments
Exercise 3.1:
Exercise 3.2:
ning one year after the loan is made. The lender wants annual payments of interest
only at a rate of 7% and repayments of the principal in a single lump sum at the
end of 6 years. The borrower can accumulate the principal in a sinking fund earning
an annual interest rate of 5%, and decides to do this by means of 6 level deposits
starting one year after the loan is made.
(a) What should the annual payment be?
13
Exercise 3.3:
Exercise 3.4:
Exercise 3.5:
Exercise 3.6:
Exercise 3.7:
Exercise 3.8:
all at an eective rate of 1% per month (12% p.a. nominal). The monthly payments
and respective terms to run are:
Monthly Payment ($)
4.36
11
17.20
15
35.00
12
20.24
18
The householder arranges a consolidation of these debts, with the total (sum) payments under the consolidated loan being equal to the total remaining payments
under the existing loans.
14
Calculate the monthly instalment and the term to run of the consolidated loan so
that the eective rate of interest involved will be unchanged.
repayment may be required to ensure the loan is fully repaid. For this exercise, this
nal repayment is assumed to be made one month after the last monthly instalment.
You may nd Excel helpful in speeding up algebraic computation.
Exercise 3.9:
[loa7] Paul takes out a loan of $47,500 to purchase a new car. The
Exercise 3.10:
in Sydney. After an investigation of their nancial situation they nd that they will
need to borrow $600,000 from the bank. The rate of interest charged is 6.75% p.a
eective.
(a) If they want to pay o the loan in 10 years using annual payments, how much
would they have to pay in total over the 10 years?
(b) If they want to pay o the loan in 10 years using monthly payments, how much
would they have to pay in total over the 10 years?
(c) Suppose they choose to follow (a). At the end of year 5 (just after the payment
at time 5), interest rates increase to 7.25% p.a. eective. How much do they
need to pay to settle the loan at that time?
3.2
Investments
Exercise 3.11:
be issued bearing interest at the rate of 8% per annum payable quarterly in arrears.
The loan will be repaid at par (ie.
instalments, with the rst instalment being repaid ve years after the issue date.
Find the price to be paid on the issue date by a purchaser of the whole loan who
wishes to realise a yield of (a) 10% per annum eective, and (b) 10% per annum
convertible half-yearly.
Exercise 3.12:
amount $500,000 was issued bearing interest of 8% per annum payable quarterly in
arrears. The loan principal will be repaid at $105% by 20 annual instalments, each
of nominal amount $25,000, the rst repayment being ten years after the issue date.
An investor, liable to both income tax and capital gains tax, purchased the entire
loan on the issue date at a price to obtain a net eective annual yield of 6%. Assume
15
that capital losses cannot oset capital gains for tax purposes. Find the price paid,
given that his rates of taxation for income and capital gains are:
(a) 40% and 30% respectively
(b) 20% and 30% respectively
Do this question in both Excel and
Exercise 3.13:
R.
Exercise 3.14:
[loa10] (McCutcheon & Scott, 1986, p. 206) Two bonds (100 face
value) each have an outstanding term of four years. Redemption will be at par for
both bonds. Interest is payable annually in arrears at the annual rate of 15% for
the rst bond and 8% for the second bond. Interest payments have just been made
and the prices of the bonds are $105.80 and $85.34 respectively.
(a) Verify that an investor, liable for income tax at the rate of 35% and capital
gains tax at the rate of 50% who purchases either of these bonds (but not
both) will obtain a net yield on his transaction of 8% per annum.
(b) Assume now that the investor is allowed to oset capital gains by capital
losses. Show that, if the proportion of his available funds invested in the 8%
bond is such that the overall capital gain is zero, he will achieve a net yield of
combined transaction of 8.46% per annum.
Exercise 3.15:
Exercise 3.16:
Exercise 3.17:
11 June 2006 paying a coupon 5.75% p.a with a maturity of 15 June 2011. The bond
is ex-interest within 7 days prior to the coupon payment. Explain what is meant
by ex-interest for an Australian government bond and describe the payments that
the buyer will receive on an ex-interest Australian government bond. Determine
the price paid for the Australian Government bond at a yield of 4.75% p.a on 11
June 2006.
Exercise 3.18:
16
Exercise 3.19:
$110% by 10 annual instalments, each of nominal amount $50,000, the rst repayment being ten years after the issue date. An investor, liable to both income tax and
capital gains tax, purchased the entire loan on the issue date at a price to obtain a
net eective annual yield of 7%. Find the price paid, given that his rates of taxation
for income and capital gains are both 15%. Do this question in Excel.
Exercise 3.20:
on 1 January 1974. The loan was to be redeemed with deferred annual payments
(always on 1 January) in accordance with the following schedule:
Amount redeemed
Redemption
in each year
rate
$150 000
105%
$250 000
110%
1 Jan 2004
$300 000
112%
Interest is payable at the rate of 7% p.a. until the payment on 1 July 2000 has been
made and thereafter at 8% p.a. What was the issue price if a purchaser of the whole
loan secured a yield of 6.5% p.a. eective on his or her investment? Do this question
using Excel.
Exercise 3.21:
of 10% per annum payable annually in arrears. The loan will be repaid by 3 annual
nominal payments of equal value, the rst repayment being two years after the issue
date.
The actual repayment will be at $100% for the rst two instalments, and
$120% for the nal instalment. An investor, liable to both income tax and capital
gains tax at 20%, purchased the entire loan on the issue date at a price to obtain a
net eective annual yield of 8%. Find the price paid, given that it is greater than
$1,200.
17
Module 4
Interest Rate Risk
4.1
Exercise 4.1:
[irr1]
Consider the following spot interest rates that are quoted on a nominal p.a. basis
(2)
assuming interest compounds semi-annually (ie. they are i
interest rates).
Term (Years)
% p.a.
0.5
4.875180
1.0
5.031182
1.5
5.234408
2.0
5.448436
(a) Use these spot rates to calculate the value of a 6.75% bond paying semi-annual
coupons maturing in two years time with a face value of $100.
(b) Calculate the yield to maturity on this bond for the price calculated above.
(c) Determine the par yield, as a semi-annual compounding yield, for one year
and two year maturity bonds corresponding to the above rates. Interpret your
result.
(d) Determine the 6 month forward rates corresponding to these spot rates.
Exercise 4.2:
[irr2] Consider two 5 year bonds. One has a 9% coupon and sells for
101.00; the other has a 7% coupon and sells for 93.20. Find the price of a 5 year
zero coupon bond.
Exercise 4.3:
[irr3] Let
s(t), 0 t
s(t) = r,
18
Exercise 4.4:
[irr4] The half year forward rates are as follows (semi-annual com-
pounding):
Time Period
% p.a
0 0.5
5.00
0.5 1
5.50
1 1.5
6.00
1.5 2
6.10
2 2.5
6.25
2.5 3
7.00
Calculate the 1 year forward rates for time periods 0 1, 0.5 1.5, 1 2, 1.5 2.5,
2 3.
Exercise 4.5:
[irr5]
% p.a.
0.5
4.5000
1.0
5.2500
Time Period
% p.a.
1-1.5
7.5082
1.5-2
2.0290
4.2
Price Sensitivity
Exercise 4.6:
[irr6] Let
tinuous compounding)
D()
Exercise 4.7:
redeemable at
per unit
a
g(I)n + nv n
gn + v n
a
is not neces-
19
n = 20
and
n = 60.
(b) Note that the duration of the security, on the basis of a specied constant
force of interest per annum
= 0.07,
Assuming
satised:
0.07n + 0.05(n an ) =
a
0.07
0.07 0.05
Hence (or otherwise) nd the maximum duration and the corresponding value
of
Exercise 4.8:
i = 5%,
(c) Using Excel and a Taylor's approximation, nd an approximate modied duration and convexity. Compare this with the answer in (b).
Exercise 4.9:
ax
is equal to:
wk k
Dx =
k=0
where
wk
is given by:
wk =
4.3
v k k px
l
l=0 v l px
Immunisation
Exercise 4.10:
[irr8] (Boyle, 1992) Suppose the term structure of spot rates is level
for all maturities and equal to 8% p.a. Suppose that in the next instant, the term
structure of interest rates will be either 9% p.a. for all maturities or 7% p.a. for all
maturities. Consider the following strategy. An investor goes short a zero coupon
bond with a 10-year maturity and a face value of 1000. Simultaneously, she uses
M5
and a
VL (i).
the proceeds to purchase a 5-year zero coupon bond with maturity value
15-year maturity bond with maturity value
M15 .
VA (i) and
M5
and
M15
such that
VA (.08) VL (.08)
is zero, demon-
strate that arbitrage prots are possible with parallel shifts to a at yield
curve.
20
Exercise 4.11:
x, y
and
z.
You have
of each bond. Derive a formula for the duration and convexity for the portfolio in
terms of the price, duration, and convexity of the individual bonds.
Exercise 4.12:
Outgo
3m
4m
3m
2m
Assume that the spot rate term structure is at and equal to 4.5%. Assume that
the insurer can only invest in 2 ZCBs.
Rate
0.5
3%
3.5%
1.5
4%
4.5%
2.5
5%
5.5%
3.5
6%
6.5%
4.5
7%
7.5%
(d) Determine the surplus if we are faced with a term structure where the
t-year
st = +
where
1 et
t
+
and
1 et
et
t
= 0.6
Exercise 4.13:
monly used in practice to model the yield curve through time. One example is the
model used in Exercise 4.12(e). Another simple example is the following yield curve,
which describes the zero coupon yield of maturity
(ie.
-year
1 e
s = + t
and
is -0.01.
(d) Simulate 1000 outcomes for the yield curve in the next moment and determine
the surplus in each case. Also plot a histogram for the surplus. Is your portfolio
fully immunised? Why?
Exercise 4.14:
Outgo
3m
4m
3m
2m
years till maturity. The second bond is a 8% coupon bond with 8 years till maturity.
Find an immunisation strategy using the two bonds. (Derive your solutions without
using Excel.)
Exercise 4.15:
sume that the spot rate is at and is equal to 6%. You have available for investment
ve ZCBs, with maturities at 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 respectively.
(a) Suppose you wish to use an immunisation strategy using 2 bonds. Derive the
portfolio.
(b) Explain the term cash ow matching. Derive the portfolio (using 1, 2, 3, 4 or
all 5 bonds) that corresponds to a cash ow matching strategy.
22
(c) Suppose the spot rate moves to 7% at. What happens to your surplus for
the strategies in (a) and (b)?
(d) Suppose the spot rate curve such that the spot rate for maturity
(3 + T )%.
is equal to
What happens to your surplus for the strategies in (a) and (b)?
23
Module 5
Derivatives
5.1
Exercise 5.1:
[der1] On 12 May 1987, the closing value of the S&P 500 Index was
293.3 and the December 1987 S&P 500 futures closing index, with delivery in 210
days, was 299.0. Calculate the theoretical futures index assuming transactions and
storage costs are negligible, a constant annual continuously compounding interest
rate of 7%, and that the S&P 500 portfolio pays dividends continuously at an annual
rate of 3.5% of its market value on 12 May 1987. You may also assume that interest
rates are deterministic so that the futures price is equal to the theoretical forward
price.
Exercise 5.2:
sury bonds in 2 years time (immediately after the coupon then due has been paid).
These bonds are assumed to be currently available as 6.5% 8 year Treasury bonds
at a yield of 6.96% p.a. (semi-annual). Funding costs for the rst year are 6.5% p.a.
(monthly compounding) and 7% p.a. (monthly compounding) for the second year.
Determine the forward price and forward yield in two years time.
Exercise 5.3:
an ounce and insurance and storage cost for gold are 2.5% p.a of the spot price, paid
on delivery. Ninety day (simple) interest rates are 9.75% p.a. What is the value of
this forward contract?
Exercise 5.4:
months time. The share is currently trading at $10.00. Assume that there will be a
dividend payment of 0.40 per share in 3 months time. Funding costs for 6 months
are 6% p.a. (monthly compounding). Transaction costs are 2% of the value of the
shares purchased. Determine the forward price for sale of the shares in 6 months at
which all net funding and other costs will be covered.
24
Exercise 5.5:
Exercise 5.6:
at time
t1 .
[der6] Suppose the current spot and forward rates are as given in
Table 6.4 of Sherris (1996, p. 109). Calculate the implied repo rate (the risk-free rate
implied by current spot and forward prices) associated with each forward contract
(corresponding to the two 90-day forward rates). Also, for each forward contract,
outline an arbitrage strategy you could use to realise your arbitrage prot
now.
Give
the amount of the prot in both instances. Use simple interest as the contracts are
for terms less than one year.
Exercise 5.7:
Exercise 5.8:
Exercise 5.9:
Exercise 5.10:
price for
unit for
swap contract. Assume that no storage costs or dividends occur during the period,
and the risk free interest rate is
5.2
(continuous compounding).
Options
Exercise 5.11:
260
end
and
275
(b) Calculate the price of a one-year European put option with a strike price of
275
(c) Verify numerically that the put-call parity relationship holds in this case.
Exercise 5.12:
[der12] Assume that the stock price is currently $50, and will in-
(simple). Find the price of a call option with a strike price of $50.
25
Exercise 5.13:
expected value of the underlying asset for these contracts has not appeared in the
valuation. Explain why this is the case. (Do you nd it surprising?)
Exercise 5.14:
260
end
and
assume that this share pays no dividends. Calculate the price of an option that pays
the cash dierence between the square of the share price at the end of the year and
70225,
Exercise 5.15:
[der15] The current stock price is $20, and the risk free rate (simple)
is 5% p.a. One year call and put options with strike price $22 are priced at $1.2245
and $2.5000 respectively. Verify that there is an arbitrage opportunity, and identify
the transactions required.
Exercise 5.16:
a binomial model of the share price. Consider a portfolio of the share and bond.
Suppose however that the stock pays a xed dividend of $D on the maturity date
of the option (ie at time
T)
and that the owner of the option will not receive the
share dividend. Derive a formula for the number of stocks and bond that need to
be held to replicate this option payo.
Exercise 5.17:
[der17] Consider call and put (European) options (with the same
T.
G(0)
T.
By equating the cost at time 0 of two portfolios that have the same payo at time
T,
nd an updated version of the put-call parity that takes into account the storage
costs.
26
Module 6
Stochastic Interest Rates
6.1
IID Returns
Exercise 6.1:
vested for 10 years. In any year, the yield on the investment will be 4% with probability 0.4, 6% with probability 0.2, 8% with probability 0.4, and is independent of
the yield in any other year.
(a) Calculate the mean accumulation at the end of 10 years.
(b) Calculate the standard deviation of the accumulation at the end of 10 years.
(c) Without carrying out any further calculations, explain how your answers to
(a) and (b) would change (if at all) if:
(i) the yields had been 5%, 6% and 7% instead of 4%, 6%, and 8% p.a.
respectively.
(ii) the investment had been made for 12 years instead of 10 years.
Exercise 6.2:
jt
st .
In
any year, the yield is independent of the yield in any other year. The accumulated
value, after
Sn
if
jt = j
Sn .
and
st = s
for all
t.
S8
if
Exercise 6.3:
j = 0.06.
S8
if
j = 0.06
and
s = 0.08.
is invested in a bank account which pays interest at the end of each year. The rate
of interest is xed randomly at the beginning of each year and remains unchanged
27
until the beginning of the next year. The rate of interest applicable in any one year
is independent of the rate applicable in any other year.
During the rst year, the rate of interest per annum eective will be one of 3%,
4% or 6% with equal probability. During the second year, the rate of interest per
annum eective will be either 5% with probability 0.7, or 4% with probability 0.3.
(a) Assuming that interest is always reinvested in the account, calculate the expected accumulated amount in the bank account at the end of two years.
(b) Calculate the variance of the accumulated account in the bank account at the
end of two years.
Exercise 6.4:
the interest rate per annum eective on monies invested with a given bank is equally
likely to be i1 or i2
(i1 > i2 ),
years.
(a) Express the mean and variance of the eective rate in a particular year in
terms of
i1
and
i2 .
Exercise 6.5:
t = 25
t = 0 has expected
Find i1 and i2 .
surance company calculates the single premium for a contract paying $10,000 in ten
years time as the present value of the benet payable at the expected rate of interest
it will earn on its funds. The annual eective rate of interest over the whole of the
next ten years will be 7%, 8% or 10% with probabilities 0.3, 0.5 and 0.2 respectively.
(a) Calculate the single premium.
(b) Calculate the expected prot at the end of the term of the contract.
6.2
Lognormal Model
Exercise 6.6:
surance company has just written contracts that require it to make payments to
policyholders of $1,000,000 in ve years time. The total premiums paid by policyholders amounted to $850,000. The insurance company is to invest half the premium
income in xed interest securities that provide a return of 3% per annum eective.
The other half of the premium income is to be invested in assets that have an uncertain return. The return from these assets in year t, it , has a mean value of 3.5% per
annum eective and a standard deviation of 3% per annum eective. The random
variables
(1 + it )
(for
t = 1, 2, . . .)
28
(a) Deriving all necessary formulae, calculate the mean and standard deviation of
the accumulation of the premiums over the ve-year period.
(b) A director of the company suggests that investing all the premiums in the
assets with an uncertain return would be preferable because the expected
accumulation of the premiums would be greater than the payments due to the
policyholders.
Explain why this still may be a more risky investment policy.
Exercise 6.7:
is adopting a particular investment strategy such that the expected annual eective
rate of return from investments is 7% and the standard deviation of annual returns
is 9%. Annual returns are independent and
it
tth
Exercise 6.8:
pected eective annual rate of return from a bank's investment portfolio is 6% and
the standard deviation of annual eective returns is 8%. The annual eective returns are independent and
in year
(1 + it )
t.
Exercise 6.9:
vestment bank models the expected performance of its assets over a ve-day period.
Over that period, the return on the bank's portfolio,
and standard deviation of 0.2%.
Calculate the value of
(1 + i)
i,
is lognormally distributed.
is
0.05.
Exercise 6.10:
29
6% and the standard deviation of annual returns is 8%. The annual eective returns
are independent and
tth
(1 + it ) is lognormally distributed,
year.
(a) Calculate the expected value of an investment of $1 million after ten years.
(b) Calculate the probability that the accumulated of the investment will be less
than 90% of the expected value.
6.3
Exercise 6.11:
it
(1 + it )
it
in year
is
is lognormally distributed
(a) Find the expected value of the accumulated value after 10 years of the net
receipts (from the perspective of A) from the swap.
(b) Using Excel, simulate (1000 times) the interest rate for the next 10 years
and verify your answer in (a).
Exercise 6.12:
yt
yt = + (yt1 ) + t
where
t N (0, 1)
= 0.05, = 0.4,
years time as S1 . Find:
t = 0, 1, . . ..
and
= 0.01.
E(S1 )
(b) Var(S1 )
(c)
if the interest rate last year was (i) 4% and (ii) 6%.
Exercise 6.13:
yt
yt = + (yt1 ) + t
It is also known that
30
(a)
E(S10 )
(b) Var(S10 )
(c)
S10 .
if the interest rate last year was (i) 4% and (ii) 6%.
Exercise 6.14:
[new9] Suppose that the interest rates in each year are independent
(1 + it ) LN (, 2 ) and it having mean 4% and
standard deviation 2%. Denote as s30 the expected value and variance of the 30
E(30 )
s
E(30 )
s
E(30 )
s
and Var(30 ).
s
and Var(30 ).
s
31
Module 7
Solutions to Exercises
7.1
Module 1
Exercise 1.1
[int1]
t = 4: 100(1.05)4 = 121.5506
t = 5: 100(1.05)5 = 127.6282
Exercise 1.2
[int2]
Exercise 1.3
ln(275/200)
ln 1.05
= 6.527
years
[int4]
275v = 215.47,
Exercise 1.5
1 = 0.06576
[int3]
200(1.05)t = 275 t =
Exercise 1.4
275 1/5
200
where
v=
1
1+i
[int5]
150(1 + i) = 240
1000(1 + i)n = 1000 150(1 + i)n =
150
Exercise 1.6
1000
150
240 = 1600
[int7]
interest rate is always at its minimum of 5% in the latter 10 years (as this minimises
32
X(1.08) (1.05)
X = 284360
Exercise 1.7
= 1000000
[int8]
The accumulation of $1 under the eective rate and the 8% and 5% rates should be
equivalent:
20
(1 + i) = (1.08)10 (1.05)10
i = 0.06489
Exercise 1.8
[int9]
t = 0:
5 + 3v + v = 8.2307
Value at time
2
3
t = 3:
8.2307(1 + i) = 10.9550
Value at time
3
Alternatively:
Exercise 1.9
[int10]
The 2nd set of cash ows contains two of the 1st set, one starting at
t = 1. Thus,
7.7217 + v7.7217 = 15.0757
another starting at
Exercise 1.10
t = 0
[int11]
Exercise 1.11
[int12]
100(1 + i) = 200
i = 0.12246
Exercise 1.12
[int13]
33
and
vn =
10(1.0915)10
= 0.8158
Since
v n > 0,
we have
Exercise 1.13
1.1491
or
v n = 0.8158 n =
ln 0.8158
ln v
= 2.325
[int15]
100(1.12)(1.05)(0.10) = 11.76
and for the third investment:
Exercise 1.14
Using
v=
[int19]
1
, we have the following present values for the two payment options:
1+r
r:
Alternative A:
Alternative B:
1
1+r
1
+
1+r
1
1+r
r = 8.5761%
Note: for C, the yield must be found numerically (eg. using Solver in Excel - See
Spreadsheet int18.xlsx)
to be at least $1550:
2660
r=
or
2.0795
r 7.9543%
We ask this question to compare A and B. If we chose A, then after 3 years, we
would need to invest the $1330 at some interest rate (eg. by putting the money in
the bank) for 2 years, after which it can be compared with the $1550 from B (at 5
years). Thus, we must be able to earn at least
7.95%
1
1+r
1
1+r
= 1508.97
which is less than the value of B ($1550). Note that we have used the interest rate
from alternative C.
Exercise 1.16
[int20]
Equation of value:
P (v + v 2 + v 3 + v 4 + v 5 ) = 1000000
where
v=
1
. Therefore, we obtain
1.13
Exercise 1.17
P = 284314.54.
[int6]
d = 1 v = 0.06
1
1
v = 1+i i = v 1 = 0.06383
Also:
i = d/v = 0.06383
35
Exercise 1.18
[int14]
1 + i = (1 d)1
Thus:
R = (1 d)1 .
100R10 (R 1) = 50R16 (R 1)
2R10 = R16
R6 = 2
R = 21/6
X = 100(R11 R10 ) = 38.8793
Exercise 1.19
[int24]
is
i = 0.055.
Exercise 1.20
[int25]
Each deposit accumulates under simple interest for 1 month, then under compound
interest for the remaining quarters. Therefore, by the end of December 2005:
March deposit accumulates to:
1
1000 1 + 0.06
12
0.06
1+
4
19
0.06
4
18
0.06
1+
4
17
= 1333.59
1000 1 + 0.06
1
12
1+
= 1313.88
1
1000 1 + 0.06
12
36
= 1294.46
1
1000 1 + 0.06
12
16
0.06
1+
4
= 1275.33
Exercise 1.21
[int21]
i(m)
1+
m
1+i=
m
1
= (1 d)
d(m)
1
m
= e
we have:
Given rate
d = 0.05
i(2) = 0.05
i(12) = 0.05
d(2) = 0.05
d(12) = 0.05
= 0.05
Exercise 1.22
0.0526316
0.0506250
0.0511619
0.0519395
0.0513809
0.0512711
[int22]
a(t) = exp
(s)ds
= exp
(a)
(b)
0.04
ds
1+s
= (1 + t)0.04
a(2) a(1)
(3)0.04 (2)0.04
=
= 0.01635084
a(1)
(2)0.04
a(3) a(2)
(4)0.04 (3)0.04
= 0.01157375
=
a(2)
(3)0.04
200000
(5)0.04
= 187530.19.
200000 0.04
(3)
= 195954.86
(5)0.04
37
Therefore:
Exercise 1.23
[int23]
We have
a(t) =
1 + 0.1t
(1 + 0.1k) exp [0.08(t k)]
tk
t>k
a(4) =
k<4
k4
Hence
(a)
ie.
To maximize
k < 4;
a(4),
dierentiate w.r.t.
(assuming
a(4) = (1 + 0.1k)e0.08(4k) ,
d
a(4) = 0.1 exp [0.08(4 k)] 0.08 (1 + 0.1k) exp [0.08(4 k)]
dk
and set to be zero. Solving for
have:
Check: at
(b)
a(t) =
ln a(t) =
(t) =
Exercise 1.24
d
ln a(t) =
dt
t 2.5
t > 2.5
1 + 0.1t
1.25e0.08(t2.5)
ln(1 + 0.1t)
ln 1.25 + 0.08(t 2.5)
0.1
1+0.1t
0.08
t 2.5
t > 2.5
t 2.5
t > 2.5
[new10]
1+i=
1+
i(m)
m
= (1 d)1 =
d(m)
m
= e
Therefore:
i(m) = m e/m 1
d(m) = m e/m 1
See spreadsheet new10.xlsx for plotting
i(m)
38
and
d(m) .
0.046
0.048
0.050
Nominal Rate
0.052
0.054
i(m)
d(m)
10
20
30
40
50
Compounding Frequency
Note that
= 0.05
and all the points on this plot yield the same eective rate of
interest!
Exercise 1.25
[ann1]
1
of the nominal amount. The eective monthly
12
is given by:
i=
0.12
= 0.01
12
Therefore:
72
120
1000
1
400
1
PV =
a72 0.01 +
a48 0.01 +
2000
12
1.01
12
1.01
72
1
1
1
400 1 ( 1.01 )48
1000 1 ( 1.01 )72
+
+
=
12
0.01
1.01
12
0.01
= 4262.50 + 618.34 + 605.99
= 5486.80
Alternatively, we can obtain the annual eective rate
j = 1.0112 1 = 0.1268
39
j:
1
1.01
120
2000
(12)
P V = 1000a6
1
1+j
6
1 vj
0.12
= 5486.80
= 1000
(12)
400a4
1
1+j
400
1
1+j
4
1 vj
0.12
10
2000
+
1
1+j
10
2000
1
1 ( 1.01 )120
= 5486.80
0.01
X = 78.720
Exercise 1.26
78.720 12 = 944.64.
[ann2]
The equation of value is based on the present value of the amount received by each
charity (which are known to be equal):
P
a = v 20 P a
3 20
P
3
1 v 20
P
= v 20
i
i
20
20
1 v = 3v
v 20 = 0.25
i = (0.25)1/20 1 = 0.07177
Exercise 1.27
[ann3]
The accumulated value of the deposits 10 years after the rst deposit is:
AV = C s10 0.06
10
= C(1.06)
10
1
1.06
0.06
= 13.1808C
The present value of the loan payments as at the end of 10 years is:
P V = 150005 0.06
a
1
1 1.06
0.06
= 15000
= 63185.4568
where we have used a rate of 6% because that is the amount paid by the account
(so the remaining funds in the bank will be earning 6% between years 10 and 15).
Equating these values and solving for
C,
we obtain
40
C = 4793.75.
Exercises 1.281.34
[annB1annB7] See the Mathematics of Investment and Credit solutions manual.
Exercise 1.35
[ann4]
and
is given by:
P a300 i = 100000 P =
100000
= 472.1087
a300 i
P a180 i
This will also be the present value of the new annuity (with annual payments of
which is valued at the new interest rate
),
j:
P a180 i = P a180 j
Therefore, the new payment is:
P =P
a180 i
= 538.1869
a180 j
P P = 66.08
Exercise 1.36
[ann5]
i = 1.0252 1 = 0.050625
j = 1.0254 1 = 0.103813
By drawing a cash ow diagram, it can be seen that the cash ow stream is a 20-year
annuity with annual payments of $100, plus an additional $100 every 2nd year (ie.
an additional 20-year annuity with biannual payments of $100). Thus:
Exercise 1.37
[ann6]
where:
129162.10 = Xa20 i
X = 16337.69
41
i = 11.11%
p.a.
Exercise 1.38
[ann7]
Exercises 1.391.40
[annB8annB9] See the solutions in the Broverman text and solutions manuals.
Exercise 1.41
s10
[ann13]
10
exp
n
1
dt
20 t
t = 1, . . . , 10.
The
is given by:
20 n
10
20 n
10
Therefore:
10
s10 =
n=1
Exercise 1.42
20 n
19 + 18 + . . . + 10
1 10(10 + 1)
=
= 20
= 14.5
10
10
10
2
[ann8]
t = 1, 2, . . . , 30.
t = 0):
times
time
P,
P, 2P, . . . , 30P
at
0.04
P = 18.32
Immediately after the ninth payment, the outstanding loan is found by decomposing
the remaining payments into a level annuity and an increasing annuity:
Exercise 1.43
[ann9]
The borrowings are a decreasing annuity, whereas the repayments can be decomposed into a level annuity of $300 and an increasing annuity starting at $200. An
equation of value (at the end of year when nal loan amount is received) is:
Noting that:
5
= (1 + i) 6a5 0.05
0.05
= 17.115531
We obtain:
X=
Exercise 1.44
[ann12]
is given by:
1 + i = 1.0254 i = 0.103813
For convenience, we will determine the initial deposit by discounting all cash ows
to time
t=0
(1/1/2004).
X, 1.1025X, . . . , (1.1025)10 X
B. Deposits of
where time
at times
t = 0, 1, . . . , 10
at times
1
1
t = 2 , 1 1 , . . . , 10 2
2
is measured in years.
These two series are (geometrically) increasing annuities, and can be present valued
as geometric progressions:
P VA = X + 1.1025Xv + . . . + (1.1025)10 Xv 10
1 (1.1025v)11
=X
1 1.1025v
= 10.934815X
P VB = v 1/2 (1.1025) X + 1.1025Xv + . . . + (1.1025)10 Xv 10
= v 1/2 (1.1025) P VA
= 11.474726X
Therefore, the initial deposit
is found as follows:
P VA + P VB = 110000v 11
X = 1656.19
43
Exercise 1.45
[new8]
Exercise 1.46
[ann14]
There are a number of ways to decompose the payments into annuity streams, which
allow the present value to be determined more easily.
A simple method is to consider 3 cash ow streams, each containing payments 1
year apart (which also means we will use the annual eective rate of 0.10):
A. 10, 20, 30, 40 at times
1
t = 3, 11, 21, 31
3
3
3
t = 2, 12, 22, 32
3
3
3
3
t = 1, 2, 3, 4
Each of these streams is the combination of an increasing annuity and a level annuity.
Therefore:
P VC = 10v(I)4 + 20v4
a
a
The annuity factors are given by:
(I)4 = 1 + 2v + 3v 2 + 4v 3
a
= 8.302780
1 v4
a4 = (1.1)
0.1
= 3.486852
Therefore, we obtain the present value:
P VA + P VB + P VC = 329.95
A more elegant method involves decomposing the original payments into:
X. 10,20,30,. . . ,10,20,30 at all times (t
= 1 , 2 , 1, . . . , 4)
3 3
= 1 , 2 , 1, . . . , 4)
3 3
P VX = 10(Ia)3 j a4 i = 194.3179
44
where
i = 0.1
j = (1.1)1/3 1
is the
1
-year eective
3
rate.
Conversely, the payments of Y can are a 3-year increasing annuity, with each payment being a level annuity (omitting the rst three payments of 0):
P VX + P VY = 329.95
Exercise 1.47
[ann15]
t = 0)
P (Ia)10 0.07
The present value (at time
t = 10)
10(10P ) = 100P
since each payment is discounted at the same rate as the payment growth rate (each
n
n
n
payment is of amount 10(1.05) P which is worth 10(1.05) P v at time t = 10, and
v n = (1.05)n cancels with the factor (1.05)n ).
Therefore, the present value of all payments at time
t=0
is:
we get:
P = 584.29
Exercise 1.48
[new4]
X.
Therefore:
X.
Therefore:
1 (1.03v)20
1 1.03v
X = 608.1346
45
= 10000
(c) To be fair, we need the present value of both payment streams to be equal (to
10000).
In nominal terms:
20
20
k
608.13(1.03)k v0.05 =
k=1
k
802.43v0.05 = 10000
k=1
or in real terms:
20
20
k
608.13vr
k=1
where
1.05
1.03
r=
Exercise 1.49
k
802.43(1.03)k vr = 10000
=
k=1
1.
[new1]
i = e 1 = 0.05127.
n is 1+2+. . .+n.
can be decomposed into a level perpetuity of 1 (1st payment at time 1), plus a
level perpetuity of 2 (1st payment at time 2), etc. This can be interpreted as
an increasing perpetuity, with each regular payment being a level perpetuity
itself:
P V = v + 2v 2 a + 3v 3 a + . . .
a
= a v + 2v 2 + 3v 3 + . . .
= a (Ia)
Therefore:
1
d
1
= 2
di
= 8200
PV =
where
d = iv = 0.04877.
(b) See spreadsheet new1.xlsx. The plot should be similar to the one below.
46
60
0
20
40
PV of payment
80
100
120
q
q
q
q
q
qq
qq
q
qq
q q
q
q q
q q
q q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
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q
q
q
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q
q
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q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
q
qq
qq
qq
qq
qq
qq
q
qq
qq
qq
qq
qqq
qqq
q
qqq
qqqq
qqqq
qqqq
qqqqqq
qqqqqq
qqqqqqqqqqqqqqq
qqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqq
qqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqq
q
qqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqq
qqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqq
qqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqq
qqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqq
100
200
300
400
500
Time
Aside: The graph is actually related to the Gamma function. The present value of
the
nth
payment is:
1 2 n 1 n 1 2 n 1 n
n v + nv = n e
+ ne
2
2
2
2
Thus, we require:
2 n
ne
nen
and
n=1
n=1
xk1 ex
xk1 ex dx
(k) = (k 1)! =
0
k=1
PV =
1
2
2
1
=
2
1
=
2
n2 en +
n=1
nen
n=1
2 x
xe
0
xex dx
dx +
0
1
1
u2 eu du + 2
3
0
2!
1!
+ 2
3
47
ueu du
0
where
u = x
= 0.05,
P V 8200
Exercises 1.501.57
[annB10annB15] See the solutions in the Broverman text and solutions manuals.
Exercise 1.58
We require
[new2]
(12)
100(Ia)10 , 100(Ia)10
100(I)10 .
a
, and
j = (1 + i)1/12 1 = 0.004074
and therefore the nominal rate (payable monthly) is:
= ln(1 + i) = 0.04879
Therefore:
a10 10v 10
i
= 3937.38
a 10v 10
= 10 (12)
i
= 4026.81
a 10v 10
= 10
= 4035.01
100(Ia)10 =
(12)
100(Ia)10
100(I)10
a
Exercise 1.59
[ann11]
14
(t2 1)v t dt
PV =
1
where the discount factor
vt
v t = exp
0
1
ds
1+s
t:
1
1+t
Therefore, we have:
14 2
PV =
1
t 1
dt =
t+1
48
14
(t 1)dt = 84.50
1
7.2
Module 2
Exercise 2.1
[lif1]
Note that if the force of mortality is constant, then the survival function is exponential:
t
t px
= exp
x+s ds
= et
0
Therefore:
bt v t t px x+t dt
E[Z] =
0
=
0
e0.02t dt
= 0.01
0
1
=
2
E[Z 2 ] =
0
e0.03t dt
= 0.01
0
1
=
3
Exercise 2.2
1 1
1
=
3 4
12
[lif2]
ak+1 k px qx+k =
k=0
k=0
This gives us a
1 v k+1
d
k px qx+k
write it in terms of
p:
49
q,
so we
1 v k+1
d
k=0
=
k=0
k px
1 v k+1
d
(k px k+1 px )
(1 px+k )
1
=
d
k=0
1
=
d
k=0
k px
k=0
k=1
k px
v k+1 k+1 px
v k px +
k=0
v k+1 (k px k+1 px )
(k px k+1 px )
k=0
1
1v
v k k px +
v k k px
d
k=0
k=1
1
v
v k k px +
=
v k k px
d
k=0
k=0
since
v 0 0 px = 1.
Therefore:
1v
=
d
v k k px
k=0
v k k px
=
k=0
The LHS is an annuity certain with a term equal to the future lifetime of the
individual.
The RHS considers each annual payment separately, noting that the
individual will receive it if he/she is alive. Both describe the cash ows of a term
annuity, and therefore they must be equal.
Exercise 2.3
Let
K(x)
[lif3]
(x).
ax = E aK(x)+1
ak+1 Pr [K(x) = k]
k=0
ak+1 k| qx
k=0
=
k=0
1
d
1 v k+1
d
k| qx
v k+1 k| qx
k| qx
k=0
k=0
1 Ax
=
d
50
We have:
dx + Ax = 1
a
Exercise 2.4
[lif4]
Pr[K(0) = k] = k p0 qk
= {0.1, 0.045, 0.0855, 0.1539, 0.2462, 0.2586, 0.1108, 0}
6
e0 = E[K(0)] =
k Pr[K(0) = k]
k=0
= 3.6203
Pr[K(2) = k] = k p2 q2+k
= {0.1, 0.18, 0.288, 0.3024, 0.1296, 0}
for
e2 = E[K(2)] =
k Pr[K(2) = k]
k=0
= 2.1816
4
v k+1 Pr[K(2) = k]
A2 =
k=0
= 0.8576
4
2
v 2(k+1) Pr[K(2) = k]
A2 =
k=0
= 0.7379
2
A1 =
2:3
v k+1 Pr[K(2) = k]
k=0
1
A2:3
A2:3
= 0.5073
= v 3 3 p2 = 0.3732
1
= A1 + A2:3 = 0.8805
2:3
4
v k k p2
a2 =
k=0
= 2.9900
a2 = a2 1 = 1.9900
v k k p2
a2:3 =
k=0
= 2.5102
See Excel spreadsheet lif4.xlsx for the calculations.
51
k = 0, . . . , 5
for
k = 0, . . . , 7
Exercise 2.5
Let
T = T (x)
[lif5]
be the (random) lifetime of the non-smoker and
T S = T S (x)
be the
lifetime of the smoker. Note that we are comparing newborns. We want to nd:
Pr T S > t fT (t) dt
Pr T > T =
0
Pr T S > t = t pS = exp
0
cu du
= (t p0 )c
0
where t p0
fT (t) =
since the survival function
is given by:
d
d
d
FT (t) = (1 S(t)) = t p0
dt
dt
dt
S(t)
is equivalent to t p0 . Therefore:
(t p0 )c (t p0 ) dt
Pr T > T =
0
(t p0 )c+1
=
c+1
1
=
1+c
[parameter]
If
c = 1,
1/2
If
c>1
1/2
(which is
7.3
Module 3
Exercise 3.1
[loa1]
X,
ie. an annuity-
immediate:
Xa5 = 15000
X = 3464.62
(b) The retrospective method considers the accumulated value of past cash ows:
(c) The prospective method considers the present value of future cash ows:
OB2 = Xa3
= 9435.02
(d) Let the new annual payment be
Y.
Z.
We have:
Exercise 3.2
[loa2]
(a) The annual payment consists of two components: the interest repayment, and
the payment into the sinking fund. The interest payment is simply 7% of the
loan:
20000(0.07) = 1400
The sinking fund payment is an amount
53
Exercise 3.3
[loa3]
R=
The monthly eective rate
L+I
6000
=
= 250
N
24
Ra24 j = 5000
Using Newton-Raphson, we dene the function
as follows:
1 (1 + j)24
j
5000
f (j) = 250
Starting with
j0 = 0.10:
j1 = j0
j2 = j1
j3 = j2
j4 = j3
j5 = j4
f (j0 )
f (j0 )
f (j1 )
f (j1 )
f (j2 )
f (j2 )
f (j3 )
f (j3 )
f (j4 )
f (j4 )
= 0.062716
= 0.022528
= 0.004878
= 0.014291
= 0.015125
of:
i = (1 + j5 )12 1 = 19.74%
Using spreadsheet loa3.xlsx for 10 iterations of Newton Ralphson. The solution
is
j = 0.015131.
is:
i = (1 + j)12 1 = 19.75%
(b) The outstanding balance (using the prospective method) is:
250a12 j = 2724.66
54
Exercises 3.43.6
[loaB3loaB5] See the Mathematics of Investment and Credit solutions manual.
Exercise 3.7
[loa5]
0.18
12
= 0.015.
is
given by:
t = 96
t = 96
is:
t = 97, . . . , 100
recursive equations:
It = OBt1 0.015
P Rt = X It
OBt = OBt1 P Rt
Therefore, we obtain:
Time
Interest
Principal Repaid
Outstanding Balance
(t)
(It )
(P Rt )
(OBt )
96
1493.23
97
22.40
365.01
1128.22
98
16.92
370.49
757.73
99
11.37
376.05
381.69
100
5.73
381.69
The full loan schedule is shown in the tutorial spreadsheet provided (loa5.xls).
Exercise 3.8
[loa6]
n.
Since
must be an integer, the consolidated loan cannot have level repayments with a
further restriction that these repayments must sum to the original total (1090.28).
55
X,
with an
We have two equations to describe the two constraints (repayments must sum to
original total; eective rate must remain the same):
nX + Y = 1090.28
Xan 0.01 + Y v n+1 = 1009.51
Here, we have three variables and two equations. Therefore, we must x one variable,
after which we can determine the other two as a function of the rst variable. A
logical choice would be to set
X and Y
n, v n+1 , an 0.01
choices of n:
get
is known).
11
69.25
328.56
12
72.45
220.86
13
74.02
128.05
14
74.51
47.13
15
74.29
-24.11
16
73.60
-87.40
17
72.61
-144.05
18
71.41
-195.13
Intuitively, the nal payment should not be negative and should be as small as
possible as it represents an extra `top-up' payment to ensure the loan is fully repaid
to the nearest cent. The purpose of the nal payment is not to repay a signicant
portion of the loan.
and so we choose
n = 14
with
X = 74.51
and
is an integer and
Y = 0.
Exercise 3.9
[loa7]
56
Exercise 3.10
(a) Let
[loa8]
10X = 844419.69.
is given by:
1 + i = (1.0675)1/12 i = 0.005458
Therefore:
t = 5.
This
will not change when the interest rate changes, as the outstanding balance
is determined from the past (ie.
OB5
6.75%:
Exercise 3.11
[loa4]
Note that we cannot nd a solution analytically due to the complexity of the loan
(dierent period for interest and principal (re)payments; non-equal actual payments). Therefore, we will model the loan using a spreadsheet (loa4.xls).
1
t = 0, 4 , . . . , 19. The interest (It ), principal repaid (P Rt ) outstanding balance (OBt ), and nominal/actual payments (N P Rt , AP Rt )
It = OBt 1 0.02
4
P Rt = AP Rt It
OBt = OBt 1 P Rt
4
75000
N P Rt =
= 5000 (t = 5, 6, . . . , 19)
15
AP Rt = 5000 (t = 5, 6, . . . , 19)
57
0.08
= 0.02, and the
4
nominal and actual payments are equal since the loan is repaid at par.
where we note that the quarterly eective interest rate is
The net cash ows received by the purchaser are the payments of interest
principal
(AP Rt ).
i.
1
1+i
t
where the summation is taken over
For
and
(It + AP Rt )
t = 0, 1 , . . . , 19.
4
Exercise 3.12
(It )
is found by discounting
Therefore:
P =
For
is
P = 65565.63.
[loa9]
This question requires a spreadsheet model due to the complexity of the capital
gains tax. A spreadsheet model can be setup using the standard recursive formulae,
along with the following formulae for tax purposes:
ITt = I It
CGTt = (CG CGt )+ = CG AP Rt
N P Rt
P
500000
The capital gain is determined as the actual repayment less the purchase price. The
N P Rt
portion of the loan repaid by AP Rt is
of the entire loan, and this portion of
500000
N P Rt
P.
the loan was purchased at a price of
500000
The price is the present value of the net cash ows at the eective yield of 6%:
v t CFt =
P =
t
The spreadsheet model can be found in loa9.xls. The solution is (a) $439,608.30 and
(b) $538,334.94.
Note that each component of the price can be expressed as follows (where
v t AP Rt = 25000(1.05)v 10 a10
t
t
v t OBt 1
25000
v CGTt = 0.3 25000(1.05)
P
500000
t
v 10 a10
where:
(4)
(4)
(4)
t
(4)
(4)
(4)
i = 0.06):
Exercise 3.13
[new13]
80 = 6a10 + 100v 10
(b) Newton-Raphson nds the root of
f (x) = 0
xn = xn1
where
xn
recursively as follows:
f (xn1 )
f (xn1 )
nth
iteration.
1 v 10
+ 100v 10 80
i
6 6(1 + i)10
=
+ 100(1 + i)10 80
i
i
0=6
Thus, dene:
f (x) =
6 6(1 + x)10
+ 100(1 + x)10 80
x
x
The solution is
i =
9.1349%.
Exercise 3.14
[loa10]
You can (and should) do this question both by hand and by spreadsheet.
(a) The capital gain is already known as the price is given and the bond only has
one capital repayment at the end.
For the 15% bond on its own, the capital gain is:
j = 8.00%
can easily be
veried by substitution.
For the 8% bond, the capital gain is:
The solution
j = 8.00%
Therefore both bonds (on their own) give an eective yield of 8% p.a.
The solution by spreadsheet is provided in loa10.xls. The equations to be used
are:
N P Rt
AP Rt
It
OBt
ITt
= 100 (t = 4)
= N P Rt
= i OBt1
= OBt1 N P Rt
= (0.35)It
CGTt = (0.50) AP Rt
N P Rt
P
100
P =
t
i is the interest
v = (1 + j)1 .
where
and
j = 8.00%.
$ (100 x)
x
105.8
and
$x
100 x
85.34
Note that
this would minimise our net CGT liability, as we have minimised the capital
gain and we do not get a refund from capital losses (therefore no advantage in
having a negative CG).
CG =
100 x
x
(100 105.8) +
(100 85.34) = 0
105.8
85.34
x=
100(14.66)
85.34
5.8
+ 14.66
105.8
85.34
= 75.81
100 =
x
100 x
4
4
15(1 0.35)a4 j + 100vj +
8(1 0.35)a4 j + 100vj
105.8
85.34
The solution
j = 8.46%
For the spreadsheet model, we note that the combined portfolio can be considered as a single bond (since interest payments are still level, and face value
60
is still $100). The price is $100, since we have zero capital gain (ie. purchasing
a par bond). The interest rate becomes:
i = 0.15 + 0.08(1 )
x
is the proportion of the rst bond purchased, and
105.8
is the proportion of the second bond purchased.
where
1 =
100x
85.34
The rest of the spreadsheet remains the same. The yield can be solved numerically to obtain
j = 8.46%.
Exercises 3.153.16
[loaB6loaB7] See the Mathematics of Investment and Credit solutions manual.
Exercise 3.17
[loa11]
When an Australian government bond is ex-interest, the owner of the bond at the
date of the bond going ex-interest receives the next coupon payment.
The buyer
does not receive the next coupon payment. The buyer receives the maturity face
value and all coupons except the next payment.
Price is:
v d (C + Gan + 100v n )
where the interest rate used is the semi-annual eective rate
i=
0.0475
2
= 0.02375,
and:
f = number of days to next coupon date (11 Jun 2006 to 15 Jun 2006)
d = number of days between coupon dates (15 Dec 2005 to 15 Dec 2006)
C = next coupon payment
G = regular semi-annual coupon payment
n = is the number of coupons to maturity
Hence
f = 4, d = 182, C = 0, G =
5.75
2
= 2.875,
and
n = 10.
Exercise 3.18
[ann16]
See Sherris (p. 4043). Users that may be interested include superannuation funds
and anyone with long term liabilities that rise in line with ination (such as inationlinked life annuities, or some general insurance liabilities). See also:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ination-indexed_bond
61
Exercise 3.19
[loa12]
Exercise 3.20
[loa13]
A spreadsheet model can be used with the following equations (where time
1
0, 2 , . . . , 30 is in years):
t =
0.035 t 26.5
0.04 t > 26.5
300000 t = 30
1.12 t = 30
it =
AP Rt = N P Rt Rt
It = it OBt 1
2
OBt = OB
t 1
2
N P Rt
t
vj (AP Rt + It )
P =
t
j = 0.065 is the required eective yield. Also note that the original outstandbalance (face value) is
t N P Rt = 4, 400, 000.
where
ing
Exercise 3.21
The price
[loa14]
is the present value of all cash ows at the net eective yield of
j = 0.08.
The complexity
arises from capital gains tax. However, note that the capital gain for the rst two
repayments (at times
t = 2, 3)
is:
400
400
P <0
1200
400
1
P = 480 P
1200
3
P < 1440. Therefore, the capital
400(1.2)
which will only be positive if
repayment is:
CGT4 =
0.20 480 1 P
3
0
62
P < 1440
P 1440
(i) For
P < 1440,
P 1440,
P < 1440,
so it is a valid solution.
+ 400(v 2 + v 3 + 1.2v 4 )
P 1440,
so it is not a valid
solution.
7.4
Module 4
Exercise 4.1
[irr1]
(a) From the spot rates we can work out the discount factors:
0.04875180
2
v(1) =
0.05031182
1+
2
v(1.5) =
0.05234408
1+
2
0.05448436
2
v(0.5) =
v(2) =
1+
1+
= 0.976204
= 0.951525
= 0.925421
= 0.898067
P =
6.75
[v(0.5) + v(1) + v(1.5) + v(2)] + 100v(2) = 102.467
2
(2)
2
6.75a2 i + 100vi = 102.467
This can be done numerically to obtain
i = 5.50537%
63
(c) The par yield of the 1 year coupon bond can be determined by solving:
1 v(1)
= 0.025146
v(0.5) + v(1)
i(2) = 5.0292%.
1 v(2)
= 0.027173
v(0.5) + v(1) + v(1.5) + v(2)
which is equivalent to a nominal yield (payable semi-annually) of
i(2) = 5.4346%.
This means that if these bonds have coupon rates equal to these par yields,
then their price will be 100 using the spot rates of this question.
(d) Recall the following relationship between spot rates and forward rates, which
holds due to no arbitrage (ie. accumulation of $1 with certainty must be the
same under spot and forward rates):
ft1,t
(1 + st )t
1
=
(1 + st1 )t1
f 1 ,1
2
f1,1.5
f1.5,2
(1 + s1 )2
1 = 0.025937
=
(1 + s0.5 )
(1 + s1.5 )3
=
1 = 0.028207
(1 + s1 )2
(1 + s2 )4
=
1 = 0.030459
(1 + s1.5 )3
where the spot and forward rates are semi-annual eective rates. These forward rates are equivalent to nominal p.a. rates (payable semi-annually) of
4.8752%, 5.1873%, 5.6415%, and 6.0919%.
64
Exercise 4.2
[irr2]
9% bonds and
7% bonds).
9x + 7y = 0
To have a face value of $100 on maturity, we require:
x+y =1
Solving these simultaneously, we obtain
x = 3.5
and
y = 4.5.
ZCB is therefore:
Exercise 4.3
For all
t,
[irr3]
t1
s(x)dx
exp
0
t1
s(x)dx + ft1,t =
s(x)dx
0
ft1,t = rt r(t 1) = r
which is a at forward rate curve.
Exercise 4.4
[irr4]
ft1,t as the nominal forward rate (semi-annual compounding) for time period
(t 1, t). The forward rates can be found by equating the accumulation of $1 over
Denote
f0,1
1+
2
f0.5,1.5
2
f1,2
1+
2
f1.5,2.5
1+
2
f2,3
2
1+
1+
1+
f0,0.5
2
1+
f0.5,1
2
= (1.025)(1.0275) = 1.053188
1+
f0.5,1
2
1+
f1,1.5
2
= (1.0275)(1.03) = 1.058325
1+
f1,1.5
2
1+
f1.5,2
2
= (1.03)(1.0305) = 1.061415
1+
f1.5,2
2
1+
f2,2.5
2
= (1.0305)(1.03125) = 1.062703
1+
f2,2.5
2
1+
f2.5,3
2
= (1.03125)(1.035) = 1.067344
65
f0,1 = 5.2498%
f0.5,1.5 = 5.7498%
f1,2 = 6.0500%
f1.5,2.5 = 6.1750%
f2,3 = 6.6247%
Exercise 4.5
[irr5]
v(t) is the discount factor associated with the t-year (semi-annual compound-
1
(1 + st )2t
2
v(t) =
v(0.5) = 0.977995 and v(1) = 0.949497 are calculated by substituting the given spot
rates, whereas v(1.5) and v(2) are determined using spot and forward rates:
1
v(1.5) =
s1.5 3
2
1+
s1
2
1+
1+
0.0525 2
2
1+
f1,1.5
2
1+
0.075082
2
= 0.915142
v(2) =
1
4
s2
2
1+
s1 2
2
1+
1+
0.0525 2
2
1+
f1,1.5
2
1+
0.075082
2
= 0.905951
Exercise 4.6
f1.5,2
2
1+
P = 105.591.
[irr6]
We have:
P = D an + Ren
= D an nRen
66
1+
0.020290
2
where:
an =
=
0
et dt
0
t
e dt
tet dt
=
0
a
= (I)n
Therefore, the duration is given by:
1 P
P
a
D(I)n nRen
=
D an + Ren
a)n + nv n
g(I
=
gn + v n
a
D() =
where
g = D/R.
Exercise 4.7
[irr7]
D() =
at
= 0.07,
n.
g = 0.05 p.a.,
a
g(I)n + nv n
gn + v n
a
n = 20
n = 60.
n
v
n
nv n
n
an
n
I n
a
n
= v n ln v = v n
= nv n ln v + v n = (1 n) v n
1
1
(1 v n ) = (v n ) = v n
n
1
1
=
(n nv n ) = (v n + (1 n)v n ) = nv n
a
n
Therefore:
a
(gn + v n ) (gnv n + (1 n)v n ) g(I)n + nv n (gv n v n )
a
D() =
n
(gn + v n )2
a
67
a
0 = (gn + v n ) gnv n + (1 n)v n g(I)n + nv n (gv n v n )
a
a
= (gn + v n ) 1 + (g )n v n g(I)n + nv n (g ) v n
a
a
= (gn + v n ) + (g ) gnn + nv n g(I)n nv n
a
a
a
= (gn + v n ) + (g ) gnn g(I)n
a
a
Noting that we require an equation in terms of
an
(ie. without
vn
and
a
(I)n ):
g
a
a
a
0 = (gn + 1 n ) + (g ) gnn (n nv n )
a
g
a
= 1 + (g ) an + gnn (n n + nn )
a
a
g
a
= 1 + (g ) an (n n)
g
( g) an (n n) = 1
g
1
an + (n an ) =
n + g(n an ) =
a
g
as required (g = 0.05, = 0.07). This can then be solved numerically
obtain n = 64.349 and a corresponding duration of 14.349.
Exercise 4.8
[new11]
1 P
P i
1 2P
C=
P i2
MD =
1 (1 + i)10
i
P
10i(1 + i)11 + (1 + i)10 1
=
i
i2
2
2
P
2(55i (1 + i)12 10i(1 + i)11 (1 + i)10 + 1)
=
i2
i3
i = 0.05 we see that:
P (i) =
For
P (0.05) = 7.7217
1 P
MD =
P i
= 4.856
1 2P
C=
P i2
= 35.602
68
to
(c) The rst and second derivatives of the price are approximated by:
P
P (i + h) P (i h)
=
i
2h
2P
P (i + h) 2P (i) + P (i h)
=
i2
h2
h is a small increment in the interest rate. For this question, we shall
take h = 0.005. See Excel spreadsheet new11.xlsx. For h = 0.005, modied
duration is 4.8576 and convexity is 35.6093.
where
Exercise 4.9
[lif6]
Recall that:
(1 + i)k k px
ax =
v k px =
k=0
k=0
i:
d
k(1 + i)k1 k px =
kv k+1 k px
ax =
di
k=0
k=0
Therefore the modied duration of
ax
is:
k
k=0 kv k px
l
l=0 v l px
MDx = v
and the Macaulay Duration is:
MDx
Dx =
=
v
k
k=0 kv k px
l
l=0 v l px
wk k,
where
wk =
k=0
v k k px
.
l
l=0 v l px
Again, this is the weighted average of the payment maturities, where the weights
take into account both the time value of money and the probabilities of survival
(since the payments are contingent to the survival of
Exercise 4.10
(x)).
[irr8]
(a) The present value of assets (5-year and 15-year bonds) and liabilities (10-year
ZCB) are:
VA (i) = M5 v 5 + M15 v 15
VL (i) = 1000v 10
where
v = (1 + i)1 .
(b) A zero cost portfolio that provides a positive (non negative) prot with zero
chance of loss.
69
VA (i) = VL (i),
we require:
M5 + M15 v 10 = 1000v 5
The duration of the assets and liabilities are:
tCt v t
5M5 v 5 + 15M15 v 15
=
t
M5 v 5 + M15 v 15
t Ct v
10v t
DL (i) = t = 10
v
DA (i) =
DA (i) = DL (i),
we require:
5M5 v 5 + 15M15 v 15
= 10
M5 v 5 + M15 v 15
which simplies to:
M5 = M15 v 10
M15 = 734.66.
We can check that this is an arbitrage opportunity by looking at VA (i) VL (i)
M5 = 340.29
and
VA (i) VL (i)
7%
0.55
8%
9%
0.45
This shows that the surplus will be positive regardless of the direction in which
interest rates shift (as long as we have a parallel shift in a at yield curve).
Exercise 4.11
[irr9]
70
Exercise 4.12
At
i = 4.5%,
[irr10]
Ct v t
VL =
t
= 3v + 4v 2 + 3v 3 + 2v 4
= 10.84
tCt v t
DL = t
VL
3v + 8v 2 + 9v 3 + 8v 4
=
10.84
= 2.29
t(t + 1)Ct v t+2
CL = t
VL
3
6v + 24v 4 + 36v 5 + 40v 6
=
10.84
= 7.84
For the assets:
VA = M0.5 v 0.5 + M5 v 5
0.5M0.5 v 0.5 + 5M5 v 5
DA =
VA
Ensuring that
VA = VL
and
DA = DL ,
we get:
M0.5 = 6.6803
and
M5 = 5.3647.
The eect of a change in interest rates on the surplus is determined in Excel Spreadsheet irr10.xlsx. The results are shown in the following table:
Rate
VA
VL
6.5%
10.39
10.38
0.01
4.5%
10.84
10.84
0.00
2.5%
11.34
11.33
0.01
Twist (d)
10.32
10.67
0.35
Twist (e)
10.86
10.89
0.03
The negative surplus for the twist scenarios illustrate the failure of immunisation to
protect against non-parallel shifts in the yield curve.
Exercise 4.13
[new12]
71
0.054
0.050
0.052
Spot Rate
0.056
0.058
Spot Curve
10
15
20
Term
(b) Fisher-Weil duration relaxes the assumption that the yield curve is at.
In
practice, yield curves are rarely at. Therefore, dierent interest rates must
be used when present valuing cash ows of dierent maturities. By splitting
the cash ows into ZCBs of dierent maturities, we can value the cash ows by
valuing the ZCBs (which is done using spot rates). The time-weighted value
(duration) is also calculated using these principles.
(c) The immunisation strategy is found using the Fisher-Weil duration (since the
yield curve is no longer at):
Ct (1 + st )t
VL =
t
= 10.609
tCt (1 + st )t
DL = t
VL
= 2.275
t(t + 1)Ct (1 + st )(t+2)
CL =
VL
= 7.572
t
Ensuring that
VA = VL
and
DA = DL ,
we get:
M0.5 = 6.588
and
M5 = 5.516.
(d) See Excel Spreadsheet new12.xlsx for the simulations and histogram similar
to that of below.
50
Frequency
100
150
Histogram of Surplus
0.02
0.01
0.00
0.01
0.02
Surplus
As shown from the results and the graph, the portfolio is not fully immunised
as there is a chance we can make a loss.
Exercise 4.14
At
i = 4%,
[irr11]
we have:
VL = 10.96
DL = 2.29
CL = 7.94
73
Letting
P1
P2
P1
D1
C1
P2
D2
C2
Let
x1
= 100.99
= 0.75
= 1.21
= 126.93
= 6.43
= 49.29
x2
V A = x1 P 1 + x2 P 2
x1 P1 D1 + x2 P2 D2
DA =
VA
Ensuring that:
VA = VL
DA = DL
we obtain two simultaneous equations which can be solved to give
x2 = 2.345.
7.983
and
2.977
x1 = 7.905
and
tively.
A check of convexity shows that
Exercise 4.15
(a) At
CA CL = 7.49 > 0,
[irr12]
i = 6%,
we have:
VL = 1.68
DL = 3
CL = 10.68
To form an immunised portfolio of bonds, it is clear that we need to use 2 or
more bonds with maturities on either side of 3 (as the portfolio duration would
be an average). Furthermore, to maximise the asset convexity (as immunisation suggests) we would wish to use the 1 year and 5 year bonds (Barbell
strategy). Using the 1 year and 5 year bonds, and solving using methods similar to previous exercises, we obtain an investment strategy of $0.8396m into
both bonds (ie. face values of 0.8900 and 1.1236). The convexity of the assets
would be
(b) Cashow matching involves nding assets that match the liability CF perfectly
without considering the costs. Since we have ZCBs available, we would simply
invest in a 3 year ZCB with a face value of $2m.
74
(c) If interest rates increase to 7%, then for the immunised portfolio:
VA VL = 2v 3 2v 3 = 0
Therefore, both methods have surpluses of approximately zero (exact for CF
matching).
(d) If interest rates twist, then the surplus of the immunised portfolio is:
0.8900
1
1.04
+ 1.1236
1
1.08
1
1.06
= 0.0588
7.5
Module 5
Exercise 5.1
[der1]
ft = St er(T t) dT t
s
= 293.3e0.07(210/365) (0.035)(293.3)210/365 0.07
s
= 305.353447 (0.035)(293.3)(0.587085)
= 299.326724
This is close to the observed index of 299.0 (only 0.11% dierence).
Aside: The dierence between the actual and theoretical futures price is usually
quite small (less than 1%), except for major events (eg. 1987 nancial crisis). The
dierence
(ft St )
(ft St )
Exercise 5.2
[der2]
The forward price will be the accumulated cost (purchase and funding) less coupons
received.
The price of the bond today is:
16
3.25a16 i + 100vi = 97.214171
where
i=
0.0696
2
= 0.0348
97.214171
1+
0.065
12
12
1+
75
0.07
12
12
= 111.223057
i1 = 1 +
0.065 6
12
and
i2 = 1 +
0.07 6
12
funding costs.
The forward price is therefore
The forward yield is the yield on the (6-year) bond which is locked in by the purchase
of the forward contract:
12
97.522944 = 3.25a12 j + 100vj
which results in
Exercise 5.3
j = 3.50%
7.013%
p.a.
[der3]
The current 90-day forward price implied by the market is (accumulated spot price
and costs):
90
365
+ (0.025) (420)
90
= 432.69
365
However, our short contract is for a forward price of $450, ie. we have an agreement
to sell gold for $450 in 90 days time. Thus, based on today's market conditions, we
should be able to make a prot of
prot is worth:
Exercise 5.4
Today, this
17.31
90 = $16.90
1 + (0.0975) 365
[der4]
102000 1 +
0.06
12
= 105098.506
0.06
0.4 (10000) 1 +
12
Therefore the forward price is
= 4060.3005
76
Exercise 5.5
[der5]
t1 ),
T)
T.
See lecture notes for further details. It may be helpful to draw a diagram.
Exercise 5.6
[der6]
For the 1st contract, the forward rate for days 30120 is 7.3%, whereas the 120-day
spot rate is 7.4%. Therefore, for no-arbitrage, we require a repo rate
1+
30
r
365
1+
90
0.073
365
1+
given by:
120
0.074
365
r = 0.075639
However, the 30-day spot rate is 7.5% (< 7.5639%). Therefore, we could:
(t = 0)
(t = 30)
(t = 120)
1,000,000
Action
1,006,164
Total
1,006,164
1,024,275
999,948
1,024,275
52
1+
90
r
365
1+
90
0.070
365
1+
180
0.074
365
r = 0.076677
The 90-day spot rate is 7.4% (< 7.6677%). Therefore:
(t = 0)
1,018,247
1,035,822
999,352
1,035,822
648
(t = 120)
1,018,247
(t = 30)
1,000,000
Action
Exercise 5.7
[der7]
77
Exercise 5.8
[der8]
Exercise 5.9
[der9]
Exercise 5.10
[der10]
Sti .
ti :
Sti X
The swap allows to get the dierence between the spot price at time
without actually exchanging the commodity. The swap price
ti
and
F0,ti Sti
where
ti .
F0,ti
represents the forward price set at time 0 (now) for settlement at time
t1 , t2 , . . . , tM
0=
i=1
M
=
i=1
M
S0 Xerti
=
i=1
erti
= M S0 X
i=1
X=
Exercise 5.11
(a) Let
M S0
M
rti
i=1 e
[der11]
(hC , BC )
C1 =
275,
Hence we want to nd a portfolio such that the value at time 1 is:
hC 285 + BC e0.05 = 10
hC 250 + BC e0.05 = 0
C1 =
hC =
10
285 250
BC = e0.05 (250)
10
285 250
Since this portfolio pays the same amount as the option at time 1 regardless of
the stock price, to have an arbitrage free market this portfolio must be worth
the same as the option at time 0. Hence:
C0 = hC 260 + BC = 6.34
(b) For the put option with exercise price
P1 =
275,
Hence we want to nd a portfolio such that the value at time 1 is:
P1 =
hP 285 + BP e0.05 = 0
hP 250 + BP e0.05 = 25
hC =
25
285 250
BC = e0.05 (285)
25
285 250
Since this portfolio pays the same amount as the option at time 1 regardless of
the stock price, to have an arbitrage free market this portfolio must be worth
the same as the option at time 0. Hence:
P0 = hP 260 + BP = 7.93
(c) The put-call parity relationship states that (in words):
Call Value
+ Discounted
Strike Price
= Put
value
+ Share
ie.
C0 + Xert = P0 + S0
This is satised, since (for
t = 1)
Price
Exercise 5.12
[der12]
C1 =
50,
(h, B)
1
h55 + B 1 + 0.05 12 = 5
1
h45 + B 1 + 0.05 12 = 0
C1 =
5
55 45
(45)
B=
1
1 + 0.05 12
h=
5
55 45
Therefore:
C0 = h50 + B = 2.59
Exercise 5.13
[der13]
The pricing is done by ensuring that there are no arbitrage properties, rather than
through any particular probability assessments (except to decide where the stock
can go to, eg. up to 55 or down to 45). In terms of pricing, there is no dierence
between a model where the stock price can go up to 55 with probability 99% and
a model where the stock price can go up to 55 with probability 2%. An important
observation is that these contracts are priced as a function of the current underlying
asset price, that is, they are relative prices. The probability of movements in the
asset price do impact the underlying asset price but once this is known, these other
contracts are determined by no-arbitrage based on the current underlying asset price.
Exercise 5.14
[der14]
X1 =
(h, B)
X1 =
80
h=
11000
285 250
B = e0.04 (250)
11000
285 250
Since this portfolio pays the same amount as the option at time 1, to have an
arbitrage free market this portfolio must be worth the same as the option at time
0. Hence:
X0 = h260 + B = 6223.81
Exercise 5.15
[der15]
22
K
= 1.2245 +
= 22.1769
1+i
1.05
P0 + S0 = 20 + 2.5 = 22.5
C0 +
Therefore we want to buy the LHS (call and bond of face value 22 and maturity 1)
and short the RHS (put and share). The cost of this transaction today is:
Exercise 5.16
[der16]
sd .
and rises to
xu
or
xd .
have:
xu = (su K)+
xd = (sd K)+
Consider a portfolio that holds
stocks and
today is:
V (0) = s0 + 1
The value of this portfolio at time
is:
(su + D) + erT
(sd + D) + erT
Therefore, we need
and
such that the payos are identical (so that this portfolio
(su + D) + erT = xu
(sd + D) + erT = xd
81
xu xd
su sd
= erT
xu xd
su sd
xu
and
(su + D)
derivative.
Exercise 5.17
[der17]
(K c) erT
GT K + K c = GT c
0+K c=K c
GT > K
GT K
if
if
0 + GT c = GT c
K GT + GT c = K c
GT > K
GT K
if
if
max {K, GT } c
Because the two portfolios have equal payo at expiry and the options cannot be
exercised before expiry, the portfolios must also have equal value for any time
In particular, at issue (t
= 0),
we must have:
c0 + (K c)erT = p0 + S0
or:
c0 + KerT = p0 + S0 + cerT
7.6
Module 6
Exercise 6.1
[sto1]
82
(by independence)
(identically distributed)
t < T.
2
= 10002 E S10 [E (S10 )]2
where:
2
E S10 = E (1 + i1 )2 . . . (1 + i10 )2
= E (1 + i)2
10
10
Therefore:
Var(1000S10 )
= 9145.60
and:
(1000S10 ) = 95.63
(c)
(i) The mean accumulation depends only on the mean interest rate, which
is not changed. However, the variance of the accumulation will be lower,
as the variance in interest rates is lower.
(ii) The mean will be larger as we are accumulating over a longer period. The
standard deviation will also be larger, as investing in a longer term will
result in a greater spread of possible accumulated amounts.
Exercise 6.2
[sto2]
E(Sn ) = E [(1 + i1 ) (1 + in )]
= E(1 + i1 ) E(1 + in ) (by independence)
= [E(1 + i)]n (identically distributed)
= (1 + j)n
The variance of the accumulation is:
Var(Sn )
2
= E Sn [E (Sn )]2
where:
2
E Sn = E (1 + i1 )2 (1 + in )2
= E (1 + i)2
= E 1 + 2i + i2
= 1 + 2j + j 2 + s2
noting that
(b)
(c)
= 1 + 2j + j 2 + s
E(S8 ) = 1.59385
2 n
(1 + j)2n
X.
Therefore:
Exercise 6.3
[sto3]
2
= 100002 E S2 [E (S2 )]2
where:
2
E S2 = E (1 + i1 )2 (1 + i2 )2
= E (1 + i1 )2 E (1 + i2 )2
1
1
1
=
1.032 + 1.042 + 1.062
3
3
3
= 1.193465
Therefore:
Var(10000S2 )
Exercise 6.4
= 19278
[sto4]
i1 + i2
2
2
2
Var(i) = E(i ) [E(i)]
1
1
= (i2 + i2 ) (i1 + i2 )2
1
2
2
4
1
2
= (i1 i2 )
4
E(i) =
(b) The mean and variance of the accumulated value can be determined using the
formulae in Exercise 6.2:
E (Sn ) = (1 + j)n
Var(Sn )
= 1 + 2j + j 2 + s2
(1 + j)2n
Therefore:
25
(1 + j)50 s2 = 0.000377389
84
Solving for
i1
and
i2 :
i1 + i2
= j = 0.0705686
2
i1 + i2 = 0.1411372
1
(i1 i2 )2 = s2 = 0.000377389
4
i1 i2 = 0.0388530
Therefore, we obtain
Exercise 6.5
i1 = 0.089995
and
i2 = 0.051142.
[sto5]
is given by:
X [1 + E(i)]10 = 10000
X [0.3(1.07) + 0.5(1.08) + 0.2(1.10)]10 = 10000
X = 4589.26
(b) Expected prot is:
Exercise 6.6
[sto6]
85
(since
1 + it
iid)
5
Var(P )
(1 + ik )
k=1
= 4250002 Var
(1 + ik )
k=1
5
= 4250002 E
(1 + ik )2
4250002 (1.035)10
k=1
5
(1 + ik )2
= E (1 + i)2
k=1
= E 1 + 2i + i2
Var(P )
= 32743.21
(b) Investing all premiums in the risky assets is likely to be more risky because
although there may be a higher probability of the assets accumulating to more
than $1 million, the standard deviation would be twice as high so the probability of a large loss would also be greater.
Exercise 6.7
[sto7]
(by independence)
(identically distributed)
2
= 10002 E S10 [E (S10 )]2
where:
2
E S10 = E (1 + i1 )2 (1 + i10 )2
= E (1 + i)2
10
10
10
Therefore, we have:
(1000S10 ) =
Var(1000S10 )
= 531.65
(1 + ik ) LN (, 2 )
ln(1 + ik ) N (, 2 )
10
ln(1 + ik ) N (10, 10 2 )
k=1
10
exp
10
ln(1 + ik )
(1 + ik ) LN (10, 10 2 )
k=1
k=1
where:
1
E(1 + i) = 1.07 = e+ 2
Var(1
+ i) = 0.092 = e2+
e 1
0.092 = (1.07)2 e 1
2 = 0.007050
1
= ln 1.07 (0.007050) = 0.064134
2
Therefore:
= Pr Z <
10
where Z N (0, 1)
= Pr (Z < 2.4778)
= 0.00661
(c) The probability required is:
7
6
ln 7 10
6
= Pr Z <
10
= Pr (Z < 1.8349)
= 0.03326
87
Exercise 6.8
[sto8]
= [E(1 + i)]
= (1.06)10
(by independence)
(identically distributed)
Therefore:
S10
is lognormal:
(1 + ik ) LN (, 2 )
ln(1 + ik ) N (, 2 )
10
ln(1 + ik ) N (10, 10 2 )
k=1
10
S10 =
10
(1 + ik ) = exp
ln(1 + ik )
k=1
LN (10, 10 2 )
k=1
where:
1
E(1 + i) = 1.06 = e+ 2
Var(1
+ i) = 0.082 = e2+
e 1
0.082 = (1.06)2 e 1
2 = 0.0056798
1
= ln 1.06 (0.0056798) = 0.055429
2
Therefore, the required probability is:
= Pr Z <
10
= Pr (Z < 0.8171)
= 0.207
Exercise 6.9
We have
[sto9]
(1 + i) LN (, ),
where:
1
E(1 + i) = e+ 2 = 1.001
Var(1
+ i) = e2+
88
e 1 = 0.0022
+ i) = e+ 2
and
2:
e 1
2
0.0022 = (1.001)2 e 1
2 = 0.000003992
1
= ln 1.001 (0.000003992) = 0.0009975
2
Therefore, we can nd
as follows:
ln(1 + j)
= 1.645
ln(1 + j) = 0.00228921
j = e0.00228921 1 = 0.2287%
Exercise 6.10
[sto10]
= [E(1 + i)]
= (1.06)10
(by independence)
(identically distributed)
Therefore:
S10
is lognormal:
(1 + ik ) LN (, 2 )
ln(1 + ik ) N (, 2 )
10
ln(1 + ik ) N (10, 10 2 )
k=1
10
S10 =
10
(1 + ik ) = exp
k=1
ln(1 + ik )
k=1
89
LN (10, 10 2 )
where:
1
E(1 + i) = 1.06 = e+ 2
Var(1
+ i) = 0.082 = e2+
e 1
0.082 = (1.06)2 e 1
2 = 0.0056798
1
= ln 1.06 (0.0056798) = 0.055429
2
Therefore, the required probability is:
= Pr Z <
10
= Pr (Z < 0.32304)
= 0.373
Exercise 6.11
[new3]
S10
is:
1 + i LN (, 2 )
where:
1
E(1 + i) = 1.04 = e+ 2
= 0.022 = (1.04)2 e 1
0.022
= = ln 1 +
1.042
1
= = ln 1.04 2
2
2
90
e 1
3
0
Density
Simulated Density of S
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
(c) A company who has an exposure to a oating rate may want to hedge this
interest rate risk by using a xed-for-oating swap. For example, if the company has a liability to repay a loan at a oating rate, they could enter into a
swap to pay a xed rate and receive a oating rate. The payment and receipt
of the oating rate will net to zero, allowing the company to pay a net rate
which is xed.
Exercise 6.12
[new5]
E(S1 ) = E(1 + y1 )
= E(1 + + (y0 ))
= 1.05 + 0.4(y0 0.05)
Therefore
E(S1 ) = 1.046
and
E(S1 ) = 1.054
for
y0 = 0.04
respectively.
(b) The variance is:
Var(S1 )
= Var(1 + y1 )
= Var(1 + + (y0 ) + 1 )
= 2
= 0.012
91
and
y0 = 0.06
Therefore
and
Exercise 6.13
and
for
y0 = 0.04
[new6]
150
100
50
0
Frequency
200
250
Histogram of S (4%)
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
S
92
1.8
1.9
150
100
0
50
Frequency
200
250
Histogram of S (6%)
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
Exercise 6.14
[new9]
j = 0.04
and
s = 0.02),
it
as
and
respectively (ie.
sn = (1 + y1 ) (1 + yn ) + (1 + y2 ) (1 + yn ) + + (1 + yn )
2
yn
= 1 + 2j + j 2 + s2
s2 +
n1
E s2
n1
by independence
2sn1 + 1
+ 2E (sn1 ) + 1
= E s2
n1 [E (n1 )]2
s
E (30 ) = 58.33
s
and
V ar (30 ) = 17.16.
s
1 + i LN (, 2 )
93
We see that
where:
1
E(1 + i) = 1.04 = e+ 2
e 1
= 0.022 = (1.04)2 e 1
0.022
1.042
1
= = ln 1.04 2
2
= 2 = ln 1 +
0.04
0.02
0.00
Density
0.06
0.08
45
50
55
60
s30
94
65
70
75