Concho Investor Presentation
Concho Investor Presentation
Forward-Looking Statements
This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Act of 1934. All statements, other than statements of historical facts, included in this presentation that address activities, events or developments that the Company expects, believes or anticipates will or may occur in the future, including, among others, statements and projections regarding the completion of the Three Rivers acquisition and the Companys future financial position, operations, performance, business strategy, capital expenditures, returns, budgets, reserves, levels of production and costs and statements regarding the plans and objectives of the Companys management for future operations, are forward-looking statements. The words believe, expect, anticipate, plan, intend, estimate, potential, should, would, could, or other similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements, which generally are not historical in nature. However, the absence of these words does not mean that the statements are not forward-looking. Without limiting the generality of the foregoing, these statements are based on certain assumptions made by the Company based on managements experience, expectations and perception of historical trends, current conditions, anticipated future developments and other factors believed to be appropriate. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of performance. Actual results may differ materially from those implied or expressed by the forwardlooking statements. Although the Company believes the expectations reflected in its forward-looking statements are reasonable and are based on reasonable assumptions, no assurance can be given that these assumptions are accurate or that any of these expectations will be achieved (in full or at all) or will prove to have been correct. Moreover, such statements are subject to a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond the control of the Company, which may cause actual results to differ materially from those implied or expressed by the forward-looking statements. These include the factors discussed or referenced in the Risk Factors section of the Companys Form 10-K and Form 10-Qs filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and risks relating to declines in the prices we receive for our oil and natural gas, including natural gas liquids; uncertainties about the estimated quantities of oil and natural gas reserves; the effects of government regulation, permitting and other legal requirements, including new legislation or regulation of hydraulic fracturing; risks related to new federal oversight or regulation of over-the-counter derivatives; risks related to the elimination of certain federal income tax deductions currently available to oil and natural gas exploration activities; drilling and operating risks; the adequacy of our capital resources and liquidity, including access to additional borrowing capacity under our credit facility; difficult and adverse conditions in the domestic and global capital and credit markets; risks related to the concentration of our operations in the Permian Basin of Southeast New Mexico and West Texas; potential financial losses or earnings reductions from our commodity price risk management program; shortages of oilfield equipment, services and qualified personnel and increased costs for such equipment, services and personnel; risks and liabilities associated with acquired properties or businesses; uncertainties about our ability to successfully execute our business and financial plans and strategies; uncertainties about our ability to replace reserves and economically develop our current reserves; general economic and business conditions, either internationally or domestically or in the jurisdictions in which we operate; competition in the oil and natural gas industry; uncertainty concerning our assumed or possible future results of operations; our substantial existing indebtedness and other important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected.
Accordingly, you should not place undue reliance on any of the Companys forward-looking statements. All forward-looking statements speak only as of the date on which such statements are made and the Company undertakes no obligation to correct or update any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by applicable law.
This presentation includes financial measures that are not in accordance with generally accepted accounting principals (GAAP) including EBITDAX, adjusted net income, and cash margin. While management believes that such measures are useful for investors, they should not be used as a replacement for financial measures that are in accordance with GAAP. For a reconciliation of each to the nearest comparable measure in accordance with GAAP, please see the Appendix.
The SEC requires oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose proved reserves, which are those quantities of oil and gas, which, by analysis of geoscience and engineering data, can be estimated with reasonable certainty to be economically produciblefrom a given date forward, from known reservoirs, and under existing economic conditions (using the trailing 12-month average first-day-of-the-month prices), operating methods, and government regulations prior to the time at which contracts providing the right to operate expire, unless evidence indicates that renewal is reasonably certain, regardless of whether deterministic or probabilistic methods are used for the estimation. The SEC also permits the disclosure of separate estimatesof probable or possible reserves that meet SEC definitions for such reserves; however, we currently do not disclose probable or possible reserves in our SEC filings. In this presentation, proved reserves attributable to the Company at December 31, 2011 are estimated utilizing SEC reserve recognition standards and pricing assumptions based on the trailing 12-month average first-day-of-the-month prices of $92.71 per Bbl of oil and $4.12 per MMBtu of natural gas. The Company's estimate of its total proved reserves at December 31, 2011 is based on reports provided by Cawley, Gillespie & Associates, Inc. and Netherland, Sewell & Associates, Inc., independent petroleum engineers. Proved reserves estimated for the 1Q12 Midland Basin acquisition at November 1, 2011 are internal estimates based on a price of $85.00 per Bbl of oil and $4.00 per MMBtu of natural gas held flat over the life of the reserves, and are not determined in accordance with SEC rules. Accordingly, proved reserves actually booked for the PDC acquisition in the Companys SEC filings may be lower than the internal estimates included in this presentation. Proved reserves estimated for the Three Rivers acquisition at April 1, 2012 are internal estimates based on a price of $98.20 per Bbl of oil and $4.24 per MMBtu of natural gas held flat over the life of the reserves, and are not determined in accordance with SEC rules. Accordingly, proved reserves actually booked for the Three Rivers acquisition in the Companys SEC filings may be lower than the internal estimates included in this presentation.
We may use the terms unproved reserves, EUR per well and upside potential to describe estimates of potentially recoverable hydrocarbons that the SEC rules prohibit from being included in filings with the SEC. These are the Companys internal estimates of hydrocarbon quantities that may be potentially discovered through exploratory drilling or recovered with additional drilling or recovery techniques. These quantities may no t constitute reserves within the meaning of the Society of Petroleum Engineers Petroleum Resource Management System or SEC rules and do not include any proved reserves. EUR estimates and drilling locations have not been risked by Company management. Actual locations drilled and quantities that may be ultimately recovered from the Companys interests could differ substantially. There is no commitment by the Company to drill all of the drilling locations which have been attributed to these quantities. Factors affecting ultimate recovery include the scope of our ongoing drilling program, which will be directly affected by the availability of capital, drilling and production costs, availability of drilling services and equipment, drilling results, lease expirations, transportation constraints, regulatory approvals and other factors; and actual drilling results, including geological and mechanical factors affecting recovery rates. Estimates of unproved reserves, per well EUR and upside potential may change significantly as development of the Companys oil and gas assets provide additional data.
Our production forecasts and expectations for future periods are dependent upon many assumptions, including estimates of prod uction decline rates from existing wells and the undertaking and outcome of future drilling activity, which may be affected by significant commodity price declines or drilling cost increases.
Company Highlights
Permian Basin
979,026 gross (543,509 net) acres3 9,275 drilling locations3 Recently announced $1.0 Bn acquisition of assets from Three Rivers Operating Company (Three Rivers or 3ROC)
1 2 3
Concho Acreage
As of 12/31/11 at SEC pricing, adjusted to include 13 MMBoe of estimated proved reserves associated with 1Q12 Midland Basin acquisition. Does not include 58 MMBoe of estimated proved reserves associated with the pending Three Rivers acquisition. For an explanation of how we calculate and use EBITDAX and adjusted net income and for a reconciliation of net income to EBITDAX and adjusted net income, please see the Appendix. As of 12/31/11, adjusted to include effect of 1Q12 Midland Basin acquisition. Does not include effect of pending Three Rivers acquisition.
Technology expanding resource potential across the Permian Basin Activity targeting unconventional reservoirs
Yeso Lower Abo Wolfberry Wolfcamp Cline/Penn Mississipian
Approximately 494 rigs currently operating >130 horizontal Increased activity driven by the emergence of new oil and liquids-rich plays
Concho is uniquely positioned in the Permian with exposure to some of the most impactful existing and emerging plays
Source: PI Dwights, BHI.
Wolffork Wolfcamp
Industry Rigs
5
Operational Strategy
28.7 - 29.8
386.5
323.5
23.6
15.6
211.5
10.9
137.3
7.1
5.0 3.8 3.9 1.2 0.1 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e
17.9 17.8
77.8
91.0
12.5 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Unhedged Cash Margin1 Percentage vs. Average NYMEX Natural Gas Price ($/MMbtu)
Realized Price ($/Boe)
$66.04
$5.07
$62.49
$61.68
$65.96
$70.84
$80.07
$72.01
$73.24
$73.39
$4.34
$4.28
$4.37
Cash Margin
77%
74%
76%
78%
$3.81
78%
$4.18
80%
78%
$4.11
76%
$3.33
78%
9% 8% 5%
11% 8% 7%
9%
9%
9% 8% 5%
7% 8%
10% 8% 4%
11% 8%
5%
10% $2.44
10% 5%
8%
4%
8% 4%
4%
1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 Source: FactSet 1 Unhedged Cash Margin represents oil & natural gas revenues, less lease operating expenses, oil and natural gas taxes, cash G&A expense (excludes stock-based compensation), divided by production. See Unhedged Cash Margin Reconciliation in the Appendix for a reconciliation to net income (loss).
52% 45%
$80/bbl; $4/mcf
1
$90/bbl; $4/mcf
$100/bbl; $4/mcf
$110/bbl; $4/mcf
IRRs based on the aggregate economics of the total identified Yeso, Wolfberry, Bone Spring sands and Avalon shale drilling locations at 12/31/2011 and current AFEs. Wolfberry aggregate model excludes 20-acre spaced drilling locations. IRRs exclude interest, federal and state taxes and G&A and do not take into account land cost or hedges. Excludes inventory from 1Q12 Midland Basin acquisition and Three Rivers acquisition.
36%
New Mexico Shelf Texas Permian
Delaware Basin
92%
30%
Delaware Basin
Average 10 rigs in 2H12 Expect to drill ~160 wells in 2012 12% of proved reserves1 21% of production in 1Q12 Activity concentrated in the Bone Spring, Avalon and Wolfcamp ~472,000 gross (312,000 net) acres2 2,248 drilling opportunities2
Texas Permian
Average 23 rigs in 2H12 Expect to drill ~400 wells in 2012 35% of proved reserves1 26% of production in 1Q12 Activity concentrated in Wolfberry play 5,833 drilling opportunities2 2,151 40-acre Wolfberry 2,626 20-acre Wolfberry
1 2
As of 12/31/11 at SEC pricing, adjusted to include 13 MMBoe of estimated proved reserves associated with 1Q12 Midland Basin acquisition. Does not include 58 MMBoe of estimated proved reserves associated with the pending Three Rivers acquisition. As of 12/31/11, adjusted to include effect of 1Q12 Midland Basin acquisition and pending Three Rivers acquisition.
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58 MMBoe1 of estimated proved reserves (50% oil; 55% proved developed) Current daily production of approximately 7.0 MBoe/d Over 1,500 identified drilling locations within the Companys existing core areas Approximately 65% of the acreage is held by production Material upside through multi-zone and horizontal development Opportunity set consistent with previous acquisitions (Chase Oil, Henry Petroleum and Marbob Energy) Provides Concho with greater scale and visible growth opportunities across its core operating areas in the Permian Basin Expected to be immediately accretive to all key per share metrics
Material consolidation opportunity within the proven core of the Delaware Basin Meaningful addition of acreage and vertical drilling locations to core Midland Basin Continued expansion into the emerging southern Midland Basin horizontal Wolfcamp and Cline shale plays
Strategically Significant
Continued focus on oil and liquids-rich plays in the Permian Basin Commitment to rate-of-return driven growth Pursuit of acquisitions that enhance existing portfolio
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Strategic Rationale Represents a significant consolidation transaction in the Permian Basin Drilling opportunities across all three of Conchos core areas Additional exposure to emerging oil and liquids-rich plays Combination Impact Consolidated
CXO1 Proved Reserves (MMBoe) 1Q12 Net Production (MBoe/d) Gross Drilling Locations Gross Acreage ('000s) Net Acreage ('000s) Rig Count (Current / 2H12) 400 76.0 9,275 980 544 37 / 36 3ROC 58 7.0 1,561 310 200 3/7 PF 458 83.0 10,836 1,290 744 40 / 43
Concho Acreage
12
Active Horizons Delaware sands Avalon shale (upper and lower) Bone Spring sand (1st/2nd/3rd)
Northern DB Consolidation
Concho Acreage
Concho Rig
1 As of 12/31/11.
13
Ability to accelerate vertical development through robust drilling program within low-risk, highmargin oil play Attractive bolt-on to existing northern Midland Basin acreage (Terry County) Evaluating horizontal upside
3ROC 1,141
PF 5,726
4,585
Concho Acreage
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Concho Acreage
Leading Permian producer with focused operations in three core plays Yeso, Delaware Basin and Wolfberry
Balance sheet and liquidity positioned for future growth; history of capital discipline
Proven management team with demonstrated track record of operational excellence, capital discipline and acquisition expertise
As of 12/31/11, adjusted to include effect of 1Q12 Midland Basin acquisition. Does not include effect of pending Three Rivers acquisition.
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Appendix
17
Delaware Basin
Central Platform
Midland Basin
PERIOD SERIES
DELAWARE BASIN
FORMATION
LAMAR BELL CANYON
PERIOD
SERIES
CENTRAL PLATFORM
FORMATION
PERIOD
SERIES
MIDLAND BASIN
FORMATION
TANSILL YATES 7 RIVERS QUEEN GRAYBURG SAN ANDRES GLORIETA
CHERRY CANYON
BRUSHY CANYON UPPER AVALON SHALE LOWER AVALON SHALE 1ST BONE SPRING 2ND BONE SPRING 3RD BONE SPRING WOLFCAMP PENNSYLVANIAN
WOLFCAMP PENN
WOLFCAMP
PENN
TANSILL YATES 7 RIVERS QUEEN GRAYBURG SAN ANDRES WARD GLORIETA PADDOCK BLINEBRY YESO TUBB DRINKARD ABO HUECO WOLFCAMP BURSUM PENNSYLVANIAN WHITEHORSE
LEONARD GUADALAUPE
LEONARD GUADALAUPE
LEONARD GUADALAUPE
DELAWARE GROUP
WARD
CLEAR FORK
WHITEHORSE
UPPER LEONARD
WOLFCAMP PENN
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EBITDAX Reconciliation
(in thousands)
Net incom e .............................................................................................................................................................. $ 548,1 37 $ 31 ,1 1 7 $ 42,57 5 Ex ploration and abandonments .............................................................................................................................................................. 1 1 ,7 7 9 5,97 9 7 26 Depreciation, depletion and amortization .............................................................................................................................................................. 428,37 7 1 35,869 90,288 Accretion of discount on asset retirement obligations .............................................................................................................................................................. 2,965 988 7 04 Impairments of long-liv ed assets .............................................................................................................................................................. 439 Non-cash stock-based compensation .............................................................................................................................................................. 1 9,27 1 6,1 28 4,468 Unrealized (gain) loss on deriv ativ es not designated as hedges .................................................................................................................................................. (61 ,504) 1 26,1 82 204,846 Loss on sale of assets, net .............................................................................................................................................................. 1 ,1 39 895 24 Interest ex pense .............................................................................................................................................................. 1 1 8,360 35,837 29,660 Income tax ex pense (benefit) on continuing operations ............................................................................................................................................................. 285,848 1 9,1 1 7 (30,469) Discontinued operations .............................................................................................................................................................. (7 9,652) (83,306) EBIT DAX .............................................................................................................................................................. $ 1 ,27 5,1 59 $ 362,1 1 2 $ 259,51 6
We define EBITDAX as net incom e, plus (1 ) exploration and abandonm ents expense, (2 ) depreciation, depletion and am ortization expense, (3 ) accretion expense, (4) im pairm ents of long-liv ed assets, (5) non-cash stock-based com pensation expense, (6) bad debt expense (7 ) unrealized (gain) loss on deriv ativ es not designated as hedges, (8) loss on sale of assets, net (9) interest expense, (1 0) federal and state incom e taxes on continuing operations and (1 1 ) sim ilar item s listed abov e that are presented in discontinued operations. EBITDAX is not a m easure of net incom e or cash flow as determ ined by GAAP. Our EBITDAX m easure prov ides additional inform ation which m ay be used to better understand our operations. EBITDAX is one of sev eral m etrics that we use as a supplem ental financial m easurem ent in the ev aluation of our business and should not be considered as an alternativ e to, or m ore m eaningful than, net incom e, as an indicator of our operating perform ance. Certain item s excluded from EBITDAX are significant com ponents in understanding and assessing a com pany s financial perform ance, such as a com pany s cost of capital and tax structure, as well as the historic cost of depreciable assets, none of which are com ponents of EBITDAX. EBITDAX as used by us m ay not be com parable to sim ilarly titled m easures reported by other com panies. We believ e that EBITDAX is a widely followed m easure of operating perform ance and is one of m any m etrics used by our m anagem ent team and by other users of our consolidated financial statem ents. For exam ple, EBITDAX can be used to assess our operating perform ance and return on capital in com parison to other independent exploration and production com panies without regard to financial or capital structure, and to assess the financial perform ance of our assets and our com pany without regard to capital structure or historical cost basis.
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The following table provides a reconciliation of net income (GAAP) to adjusted net income (non-GAAP).
Y ear Ended Decem ber 31, 2011 T hree Months Ended March 31, 2012 2011
Adjustm ents for certain non-cash item s: Unrealized mark-to-market (gain) loss on commodity and interest rate deriv ativ es .................................................................................................. (61 ,504) 1 26,1 82 204,846 Impairments of long-liv ed assets .............................................................................................................................................................. 439 Leasehold abandonments .............................................................................................................................................................. 5,7 35 1 20 1 26 Discontinued operations: Gain on sale of assets .............................................................................................................................................................. (1 35,943) (1 41 ,950) Tax impact (a) ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 7 3,258 (48,1 21 ) (24,263) Adjusted net incom e ............................................................................................................................................................................................... $ 430,1 22 $ 1 09,298 $ 81 ,334 Adjusted basic earnings per share: Adjusted net income per share .............................................................................................................................................................. $ 4.1 9 $ 1 .06 $ 0.80 Weighted av erage shares used in adjusted basic earnings per share .......................................................................................................................... 1 02,581 1 02,854 1 02,242 Adjusted diluted earnings per share: Adjusted net income per share .............................................................................................................................................................. $ 4.1 5 $ 1 .05 $ 0.7 9 Weighted av erage shares used in adjusted diluted earnings per share ....................................................................................................................... 1 03,653 1 03,7 7 0 1 03,499 (a) The tax impact is computed utilizing the Company 's statutory effectiv e federal and state income tax rates. The income tax rates for the y ear ended December 31 , 201 1 and three months ended March 31 , 201 2 and 201 1 were approx imately 37 .8%, 38.1 % and 38.5%, respectiv ely .
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1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11 $
4Q11 (82,825) 7 ,155 123,47 8 7 95 363 5,405 320,312 34,159 (616) (48,152) 3,654 $ 363,7 28 6,532 MBoe $ 55.68 $ 7 3.24 7 6%
1Q12 31,117 5,97 9 135,869 988 6,128 158,093 35,837 1,268 19,117 $ 394,396 6,919 MBoe $ 57 .00 $ 7 3.39 7 8%
Net incom e (loss) .. $ 67 ,540 $ 124,17 1 $ 20,7 7 5 $ (8,116) $ 42,57 5 $ 232,182 $ 356,205 Exploration and abandonments . 1,109 922 3,617 4,67 6 7 26 400 3,498 Depreciation, depletion and amortization 50,159 49,611 57 ,624 84,248 90,288 98,881 115,7 30 Accretion of discount on asset retirement obligations 341 316 349 47 6 7 04 7 15 7 51 Impairments of long-lived assets 256 3,489 1,922 5,947 76 Non-cash stock-based compensation 2,831 2,87 1 3,152 4,07 7 4,468 4,7 25 4,67 3 (Gain) loss on derivatives not designated as hedges (15,57 3) (112,7 63) 66,107 149,554 233,142 (144,882) (385,222) Interest expense 11,065 11,192 12,036 25,7 94 29,660 21,660 32,881 Other (income) expense, net .. 73 304 3,521 6,415 352 1,7 35 2,503 Income tax expense (benefit) .. 38,7 63 7 2,220 7 ,392 (3,097 ) (30,469) 143,27 0 221,199 Discontinued operations (a) .. 7 ,47 0 8,229 7 ,030 (11,927 ) (83,306) Unhedged Cash Margin .......... $ 164,034 $ 160,562 $ 183,525 $ 258,047 $ 288,140 $ 358,7 62 $ 352,218 Production 3,210 MBoe 3,452 MBoe 3,899 MBoe 5,002 MBoe 5,228 MBoe 5,57 3 MBoe 6,311 MBoe Unhedged Cash Margin ($/Boe) .......... $ 51.10 $ 46.51 $ 47 .07 $ 51.59 $ 55.11 $ 64.38 $ 55.81 Average price without derivatives ($ /Boe) $ 66.04 $ 62.49 $ 61.68 $ 65.96 $ 7 0.84 $ 80.07 $ Unhedged Cash Margin (%) .......... 77% 7 4% 7 6% 7 8% 7 8% 80% 7 2.01 7 8%
Unhedged cash margin per BOE (as calculated above) is presented herein, and reconciled to the generally accepted accounting principle (GAAP) measure of net income (loss). Management believes this presentation may be helpful to investors as it represents the cash generated by our oil and natural gas assets that is available for reinvestment. Concho management uses this information to analy ze operating trends for comparative purposes within the industry . This measure is not intended to replace GAAP statistics but rather to provide additional information that may be helpful in evaluating trends and performance.
(a) Includes similar items as listed above, including the (gain) loss on sale of assets that is presented in discontinued operations.
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Oil Swaps Volume (Bbl) .............................................................................................................................................................. 3,949,500 3,87 6,500 3,539,500 11,365,500 12,031,000 NY MEX price (Bbl) (a) .............................................................................................................................................................. $ 95.27 $ 96.39 $ 96.23 $ 95.95 $ 96.08 Natural Gas Swaps Volume (MMBtu) .............................................................................................................................................................. 7 5,000 7 5,000 7 5,000 225,000 NY MEX price (MMBtu) (b) .............................................................................................................................................................. $ 6.54 $ 6.54 $ 6.54 $ 6.54 (a) The index prices for the oil contracts are based on the NY MEX-West Texas Intermediate monthly av erage futures price. (b) The index prices for the natural gas contracts are based on the NY MEX-Henry Hub last trading day of the month futures price.
4,513,000 92.85
429,000 88.31
168,000 87 .00
22
G&A expense: Cash G&A expense ($/Boe) Non-cash stock based compensation ($/Boe)
DD&A expense ($/Boe) Exploration, abandonments and G&G ($/Boe)
Cash interest rates: $300 million senior notes due 2017 $600 million senior notes due 2021 $600 million senior notes due 2022 $600 million senior notes due 2022 Remainder of debt Income taxes: Percent deferred of total taxes
Capital expenditures ($ in billions)
23