December 2011 Joseph Holliday

MIDDLE EAST SECURITY REPORT 2

THE STRUGGLE FOR SYRIA IN 2011

AN OPERATIONAL AND REGIONAL ANALYSIS

Photo Credit: April, 17, 2011Syrian protesters shouts slogans calling for President Bashar Assad to step down during a protest to express solidarity with Syrian people in front of the Syrian embassy in Amman, Jordan. Photo courtesy of Nader Daoud.

All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. 2011 by the Institute for the Study of War. Published in 2011 in the United States of America by the Institute for the Study of War. 1400 16th Street NW, Suite 515 Washington, DC 20036. http://www.understandingwar.org

Joseph Holliday

MIDDLE EAST SECURITY REPORT 2

THE STRUGGLE FOR SYRIA IN 2011

AN OPERATIONAL AND REGIONAL ANALYSIS

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Joseph Holliday, a Senior Research Analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, served as an Infantry and intelligence officer in the U.S. Army from June 2006 to September 2011, and continues to serve in the Army reserves. During his time on active duty, Joe deployed to East Baghdad, Iraq from November 2007 to January 2009 with the 10th Mountain Division, 2-30 Infantry Battalion. From May 2010 to May 2011 Joe deployed to Afghanistans Kunar Province as the Intelligence Officer for 2-327 Infantry Battalion, 101st Airborne Division. He has a Bachelors degree in History from Princeton University.

ABOUT THE INSTITUTE

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is a non-partisan, non-profit, public policy research organization. ISW advances an informed understanding of military affairs through reliable research, trusted analysis, and innovative education. ISW is committed to improving the nations ability to execute military operations and respond to emerging threats in order to achieve U.S. strategic objectives.

TAbLE OF cONTENTS
mIddLE EAST SEcURITY REpORT 2 | THE STRUGGLE FOR SYRIA IN 2011 | jOSEpH HOLLIdAY | dEcEmbER 2011

EXECuTIVE SuMMARY.................................................................................. 07 INTRODuCTION............................................................................................. 09 SYRIAS SECTARIAN CONTEXT...................................................................... 09 ThE ASSAD REGIMES OPERATIONS. . ............................................................ 10 ThE STRuGGLE bEGINS IN DERAA............................................................... 13 CONFLICT ESCALATES IN CENTRAL SYRIA................................................... 14 ThE REGIME CONTROLS DAMASCuS & ITS SubuRbS................................... 17 ALAWITES SECuRE ThE COASTAL REGION................................................... 19 ARMED REbELLION bEGINS IN IDLIb PROVINCE........................................... 21 ThE REGIME ASSuMES RISK IN ThE EAST.................................................... 22 REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS & INTERNATIONAL CONCERNS. . ........................... 23 CONCLuSION................................................................................................ 24 NOTES........................................................................................................... 26

MAPS & FIGuRES MAP 1 | SYRIA............................................................................................... 08 FIGURE 1 | SYRIAN EThNO-RELIGIOuS GROuPS .......................................... 10 MAP 2 | SYRIAN EThNO-RELIGIOuS GROuPS................................................ 11 MAP 3 | 2011 MAJOR REGIME OPERATIONS.................................................. 12 MAP 4 | CENTRAL SYRIA. . .............................................................................. 14 FIGuRE 2 | TIMELINE.................................................................................... 16 MAP 5 | DAMASCuS....................................................................................... 18 MAP 6 | NORThWEST SYRIA.......................................................................... 20

EXEcUTIVE SUmmARY
mIddLE EAST SEcURITY REpORT 2 | THE STRUGGLE FOR SYRIA IN 2011 | jOSEpH HOLLIdAY | dEcEmbER 2011

This paper provides context for understanding the cycles of violence in Syria. The first section provides a brief historical overview of sectarianism in Syria in order to understand its role in the current conflict. The second section provides a framework for understanding the operations and strategy of the Assad regime. The paper then analyzes regime security operations in seven regions: Deraa province; Damascus; Homs and Hama in central Syria; the coastal region; Idlib province; the Arab east; and the Kurdish northeast. The paper concludes with an examination of regional and international responses to the conflict. Sectarian politics in Syria have fundamentally complicated the problems facing the Syrian regime and its opposition. The Assad regime has not seriously considered introducing comprehensive reforms; representative government in Syria would lead to the regimes downfall and the prosecution of the former elite. Given the consequences of losing, the regime is likely to fight to the end. The scale of unrest in Syria has made it impossible for the regimes security forces to simultaneously garrison all of the countrys key terrain. The regime has maintained control over Syrias armed forces, despite limited defections. Therefore, the regimes strategy has been to maneuver elite forces to key centers of unrest and conduct large clearance operations, using selective brutality in an effort to end the crisis. The regime successfully suppressed demonstrations in Deraa, where the protests began in March 2011, by conducting aggressive clearance operations. This allowed the regime to focus resources elsewhere as the conflict progressed. Homs has become the conflicts center of gravity because of its strategic location and its frequent sectarian violence. The regime attempted to quash Homs dissent in May, but emergencies elsewhere in Syria diverted attention and resources. By the time the security forces refocused on Homs in September, peaceful demonstrations had given way to armed resistance. Despite large demonstrations in Damascus northeast and southwest suburbs, the regimes security presence and targeting campaign has successfully prevented demonstrations from overrunning downtown Damascus. The size of the pro-regime population in Damascus has also contributed to dampening unrest in the capital. From the beginning of the uprising, the regime has deliberately consolidated its control over the Alawite homeland of Syrias coastal region. Clearance operations in Latakia, Baniyas, and Tel Kalakh targeted Sunni enclaves and shored up regime lines of communication. The first significant armed resistance of the current crisis was a local insurrection near the border with Turkey in June. The regime successfully pushed resistance forces out of the region that month. However, consistent armed resistance in Idlib emerged in October, possibly under the leadership of the Free Syrian Army. The regime has been able to assume risk in Syrias east. Security forces have avoided direct confrontation with the Sunni tribes of Deir ez-Zor, while Syrias Kurds largely refrained from joining the opposition movement in 2011. Iran, Iraq, and Lebanese Hezbollah have supported the Assad regime throughout this crisis with moral, economic, and possibly material assistance. Commercial and military interests in Syria have solidified Russian support for Assad. Turkey, Assads longtime ally, has reversed its position with a series of measures that have isolated and pressured the regime. The Arab League, led by the Sunni Arab Gulf States, has also strongly condemned the Assad regimes violent response to the protest and enacted sanctions. The United States and European Union enacted comprehensive sanctions against individuals, organizations, and Syria as a whole. After nine months of conflict and despite mounting regional pressure, the Assad regime has not demonstrated its willingness to step down, let alone abandon its offensive security strategy. The regimes violent operations severely limited the possibility of a negotiated settlement. At the end of 2011, as both sides harden their stance and secure regional support, Syrias slide towards civil war may be unavoidable.
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7 5 6 3

MAP 1 | REGIONS OF SYRIA

MIDDLE EAST SECURITY REPORT 2

THE STRUGGLE FOR SYRIA IN 2011

AN OPERATIONAL AND REGIONAL ANALYSIS By Joseph Holliday

This paper provides a framework for understanding the cycles of violence reported in Syria. After

reviewing underlying sectarian tensions, defining the combatants involved in the violence, and considering the regimes operations, the narrative will proceed regionally rather than chronologically. By scoping down the larger issue to different regions and objectively describing the Assad regimes operations, this synopsis should provide the perspective necessary to contextualize daily reporting and better understand how the conflict has unfolded across Syria.

For the purposes of orientation and analysis, it is useful complicated the problems facing the Syrian regime and its to divide Syria into seven relatively discrete regions as opposition. From the beginning of the uprising, the Assad regime did not believe that introducing comprehensive shown on the map above.1 reforms was a viable option: representative government From south to north they are: in Syria would lead to the regimes downfall because Baath party rule represents a narrow faction of Syrians. 1. Deraa province The regime has feared its downfall would lead to the prosecution of the former elite and the persecution of 2. Damascus and its environs its allies. As Dutch diplomat and Syria scholar Nikolaos van Dam put it, Bashar al-Assad was never going to sign 3. Homs, Hama and the central Orontes plain his own death warrant.3 4. Latakia, Baniyas and the coastal region Syrias heterogeneous demographics include Shia, 5. Idlib province Christian and Kurdish minorities encompassed by a sixty-percent Sunni Arab majority. Syrias Shia sects 6. The Arab east include the Alawites, who constitute approximately twelve percent of Syrians but whose members include 7. The Kurdish northeast the Assad family.4 The poor, rural Alawites of the The ongoing propaganda war has marred reporting coastal Jibal al Alawiyin range have lived in the region coming out of Syria; the majority of daily news reports since Ottoman times. During the French Mandate of derive either from the statements of opposition and the 1920s, the Syrian Armys ranks filled with minorities human rights groups or from regime media outlets.2 and in particular Alawites. The Syrian Baath Party In order to mitigate the effects of misinformation, seized power in a 1963 coup by relying on a base this frameworks analytical foundation derives from of political power rooted in rural, heterodox Shia aggregating a wide range of media sources and groups, who then enjoyed increasing enfranchisement disassociating editorial context as much as possible. The in education, military and government positions. As citations here represent the most credible news stories Hafez al-Assad consolidated control of the Baath and reports. Despite these attempts to mitigate bias, the Party through the 1960s, Alawites received increasingly information presented here is ultimately subject to the preferential treatment; however, it is important to note the inherently secular outlook of the regime. Christians integrity of its sources. have enjoyed a protected status and many of the Sunni urban elite, particularly within the business community, have stayed close to the regime. Despite Syrias Sunni SYRIAS SECTARIAN CONTEXT Arab majority, the Assad family constructed a forty-year Sectarian politics does not explain everything that has dynasty on the foundation of Alawites in the countrys happened in Syria in 2011, but it has fundamentally military and Baath Party political establishment.
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MIDDLE EAST SECURITY REPORT 2 | THE STRUGGLE FOR SYRIA IN 2011 | jOSEpH HOLLIdAY | dEcEmbER 2011

Given the consequences of losing, the regime is likely to fight to the end; however, it does not have enough trustworthy security forces to simultaneously garrison every major city. Therefore, the regime has adopted a strategy of selective brutality in an effort to end the crisis. While the regimes operational capacity will contract with an economy faced with increasing international isolation, the state of the Syrian economy will be unlikely to stop operations altogether. Meanwhile, the demonstrators have faced violence long past most analysts expectations. The insurgency has enough of a foothold to continue operations, and the opposition does not want its victims to have died in vain. While it is unrealistic to expect Assads fall in the near term, a full return to status quo is equally unrealistic. After seven months of grinding, bloody conflict, there is no end in sight. Elements of the Assad regime have treated the crisis as an existential struggle for the survival of the Alawite minority and by extension modern Syria. The memory of the 1976 to 1982 Muslim Brotherhood uprising has shaped the regimes view of the current conflict, and they see it as a Salafist conspiracy to regain historical Sunni hegemony over the region. This outlook has cleaved the Alawites to the regime. What historian Hanna Batatu wrote in 1981 is just as true today: Working for cohesion at the present juncture is the strong fear among Alawis of every rank that dire consequences for all Alawis could ensue from an overthrow of the existing regime.5 The Syrian Alawite regime enjoys support from many of the countrys other minorities, who are fearful of the possibility of a Sunni Islamist government if the regime falls. Christian leaders have openly sided with the regime.6 Unrest in the Druze-dominated As Suwayda province and the Ismaeli districts of Hama province, Salamiyah and Masyaf has been limited. Despite the fact that the demonstrators have maintained a secular message, they are overwhelmingly Sunni.7 Not only have they failed to attract Syrias minorities in large numbers, but they have failed to articulate what will happen to the tens of thousands of Alawites who work for the security forces and the state if the regime is overthrown. It is not a stretch to say that every Alawite family has at least one family member in the security forces.8 As the conflict continues it will become harder for the protestors to forgive the Alawite security forces who have killed so many. As Van Dam wrote, A scenario of reconciliation South African style does not seem possible.9
10

ThE ASSAD REGIMES OPERATIONS

Key Terms
The term security forces is deliberately generic, considering the complexity of the Assad regimes security apparatus and the difficulty of attributing responsibility for actions to specific units based on open source media. Each province retains its own police and intelligence services, and the purview of the regimes overlapping national intelligence agencies includes security operations. The Assad regime has a General Intelligence Directorate, Air Force Intelligence Directorate, Political Security Directorate and Department of Military Intelligence, and each enjoys a purview that exceeds typical intelligence agencies jurisdictions. Air Force Intelligence in particular has vastly expanded missions and capabilities that date back to Hafez al-Assad. Pro-regime paramilitary shabiha militias have been closely involved in the regimes overall security operations, and have committed much of the excessive violence against the opposition. By terrorizing neighborhoods beyond the reach of over-stretched uniformed security services, these paramilitaries have functioned as a stopgap. The central governments degree of control over these proregime elements is unclear; however, the shabihas role in the Syrian uprising invites an interesting parallel with the role played by Basij paramilitaries during Irans 2009 anti-government protests.10 Most of the Syrian Armys approximately 300,000 conscripts are Sunni, but as much as seventy percent of
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MIDDLE EAST SECURITY REPORT 2 | THE STRUGGLE FOR SYRIA IN 2011 | jOSEpH HOLLIdAY | dEcEmbER 2011

Salamiyah

KEY MIXED: ALL MIXED: ALAWITE, SUNNI, CHRISTIAN SUNNI KURD CHRISTIAN ISMAELI DRUZE ALAWITE

* UNMARKED AREAS ARE SPARSELY INHABITED.

MAP 2 | ETHNO-RELIGIOUS GROUPS

the Armys approximately 200,000 career soldiers are Alawites, along with an estimated eighty percent of its officer corps.11 These high estimates seem plausible, considering the history of the Syrian army under the Baath Party. After the 1963 Baath Party coup, the representation of Alawites among newly appointed officers was reportedly ninety percent.12 This group of young 1960s officers are todays flag officers and senior defense officials. Even prior to the 1960s, some sixtyfive percent of non-commissioned officers belonged to the Alawite sect.13 The Assad regime has carefully utilized sectarian tensions to maintain control of its armed forces. Other than the Alawites, loyal minorities such as Druze, Christians, and Sunni Circassians occupy Syrias key military positions: Bashar al-Assad appointed a Greek Orthodox Christian, General Daoud Rajiha, as Minister of Defense in August
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2011.14 Furthermore, the regime has been reluctant to employ units other than those made up of loyalists, and when it has, security personnel from the Alawitedominated intelligence agencies have accompanied them.15 The terms armor and mechanized refer to the large numbers of armored vehicles that Syrian security forces have utilized in the conflict. Cited simply as tanks in news reports, the Syrian military has nearly 5,000 main battle tanks and an additional 5,000 other tracked, armored vehicles.16 The terms clearance and cordon-and-search refer to the spectrum of offensive operations the security forces have conducted, which international media has typically called crackdowns or raids. A clearance operation consists of isolating, clearing and securing an entire urban area with
11

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JUNE

MARCH, AUGUST

AUGUST APRIL-MAY MAY, SEPTEMBER-NOVEMBER MAY

2011 MAJOR REGIME OPERATIONS

MARCH-MAY

MAP 3 | 2011 MAJOR REGIME OPERATIONS

combined arms that include armor, infantry, paramilitary shabiha, and helicopters in support. These operations are designed to disperse demonstrations and create freedom of maneuver for the security forces to identify and detain activists.17 Cordon-and-search operations consist of isolating, clearing and then withdrawing from a smaller population center or a neighborhood within a major city in order to search for and detain suspected activists.

armed resistance. Through its media headquarters in Turkey, the Free Syrian Army has portrayed the nascent insurgency as a movement of army defectors; however, most evidence suggests that local militias have played an equal role.

Strategy

In order to preserve its rule in Syria, the Assad regime has attempted to maintain control of the countrys key lines of communication. The most important of these is the interior north-south highway that runs from the Jordanian border, through Damascus to Aleppo in the north. Unrest in Homs has significantly disrupted this critical artery, but the line of communication remains intact from a logistical standpoint. Homs position on this highway is doubly important because it By contrast, the terms resistance forces or insurgents refer to is the intersection between Syrias interior and coastal the growing segment of the opposition that is mounting highways. The regime has had more success controlling The regimes opponents inside Syria have been predominately unarmed protestors, but by the end of 2011, armed resistance in Syria became more robust. The terms protestors or demonstrators refer to the largely young, male, and Sunni throngs of Syrians who have taken to the streets to demand Assads ouster through unarmed, if not wholly peaceful, means.
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MIDDLE EAST SECURITY REPORT 2 | THE STRUGGLE FOR SYRIA IN 2011 | jOSEpH HOLLIdAY | dEcEmbER 2011

stretches from the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights to the Druze Mountains of As Suwayda province. The regime decided to use lethal force in an effort to contain the demonstrators, some of whom had destroyed government The scale of unrest in Syria made it impossible for the buildings in the town. The decisive response successfully regimes security forces to simultaneously garrison all dampened later demonstrations and became a test case of the countrys key population centers and lines of for the utility of larger clearance operations. communication. Therefore, the regimes strategy has been to maneuver elite clearance forces to key centers Unarmed but destructive demonstrations in Deraa of unrest and conduct large scale cordon and search prompted the Assad regime to respond with violence. operations. Although the regime has demonstrated the The incarceration of several youths in Deraa triggered ability to conduct simultaneous large-scale operations demonstrations on Friday, March 18, 2011 that escalated along the inland highway and the coast, it has only until the following Monday, when security forces fired been able to conduct one major inland operation at a live ammunition against a mob that had succeeded in time. This restriction to the regimes maneuver and burning down the Baath Party headquarters and other its command and control was clearly demonstrated by public buildings.19 The regime responded decisively, the slowed pace of operations during and immediately driving straight to the heart of the protest movement, following the regimes response to armed rebellion in the Omari Mosque. The mechanized unit that seized Jisr al-Shughour in June and July 2011, as discussed in this landmark has been frequently identified as Bashar the section on Idlib province. al-Assads brother Mahers elite 4th Armored Division, which opened fire on unarmed demonstrators and killed Once the regime has cleared major population centers, as many as fifteen protestors in the two-day assault.20 it has attempted to hold the terrain with local police and security forces. By raising the cost of dissent during When protests erupted across the country on March 25 as the larger clearance operations, the regime has largely demonstrators emerged from mosques packed for Friday succeeded in achieving a modicum of order that local prayers, the scale and breadth of the demonstrations forces have been able to maintain. However, the clearest seemed to take the Assad regime by surprise. Just exception this successful strategy has been the continued one week after the first protests in Deraa, significant unrest in Homs. demonstrations had erupted in six of twelve provincial capitals and many more towns and cities. Whether Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has been considered responding to the widespread protests by backing off or synonymous with the Baath Party regime and its security resetting in order to maximize flexibility, the mechanized forces, but Assads options have likely been constrained by troops withdrew from Deraa that day. As they pulled the influence of the regimes inner circle, many of whom back, security forces killed ten demonstrators in he inherited from his father, Hafez. This possibility of Sanamein, halfway between Deraa and Damascus.21 The tension at the heart of the regime may help to explain clash squandered any respite Assad may have hoped to disjointed components of the regimes early response to gain by withdrawing from the city and instead triggered the crisis.18 However, as the crisis continued into the fresh demonstrations throughout the Deraa provinces summer of 2011, Assad became irreversibly tied to the Hawran plain. regimes decisions. In this paper Assad refers not to the Mounting unrest in Deraa throughout April prompted president alone but to the regimes inner circle. the regime to reenter the city in a bid to crush the protest movement there once and for all. On April 25, after establishing isolation checkpoints, cutting off water ThE STRuGGLE BEGINS IN DERAA and electricity, troops and tanks stormed Deraa and The city of Deraa, on Syrias southern border with reoccupied the Omari Mosque after a five-day offensive. Jordan, witnessed the first clashes between protestors and Security forces detained hundreds of suspected activists security forces in mid-March and galvanized nationwide and killed as many as forty-five protestors.22 unrest. Deraa is the largest city of the southern Hawran plain, a Sunni-majority agricultural region that The second Deraa operation showed the regime that it could raise the costs of dissent to a point where it could this linking east-west and coastal highways through its operations in Tel Kalakh and Baniyas, as discussed in the later section on the coastal region.
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MIDDLE EAST SECURITY REPORT 2 | THE STRUGGLE FOR SYRIA IN 2011 | jOSEpH HOLLIdAY | dEcEmbER 2011

MAP 4 | CENTRAL SYRIA

more easily maintain a modicum of stability. After a CONFLICT ESCALATES IN CENTRAL SYRIA week of operations in Deraa, mechanized forces once again withdrew from the city on May 5.23 The regime did Syrias fertile central plain, where Homs and Hama not feel the need to conduct another major operation in straddle the Orontes River, has emerged as the conflicts center of gravity, having experienced the largest protests, Deraa for at least six months. most aggressive regime operations, and stiffest armed This is not to say that clashes between demonstrators and resistance. Unrest in Homs, and to a lesser extent in security forces have ended. In particular, the towns just Hama, has separated the country physically and exposed north of Deraa have faced repeated cordon-and-search deep ethnic rifts. The regime was able to quell the operations.24 By mid-November, an uptick in casualties uprising in Hama through force, just as it had in Deraa; suggested the regime may once again have reason to focus however, offensive operations in Homs have only on Deraa province.25 succeeded in encouraging armed resistance and sectarian violence, which have provided further justification for Be that as it may, the regime felt comfortable leaving the regimes use of force. the security of the citys government buildings in the hands of local security forces for at least seven months Unrest in Homs and Hama threatens a critical line of following the early March Deraa clearance. Therefore, communication that connects Syrias two most populous a key lesson the Assad regime may have taken from the cities and largest economic centers, Damascus and Deraa campaign is that violence could restore stability, Aleppo. A messy combination of insurgent and sectarian a conclusion that may have led to the regimes critical attacks has disrupted travel on the primary northmiscalculation in Homs a month later. south highway, meaningfully degrading the countrys connectedness. Additionally the majority of Syrias petroleum products traveling by pipeline from eastern
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oil fields converge at the oil refineries in Homs before continuing through the Homs Gap, between the Jibal al Alawiyin and the Anti-Lebanon mountain range, to the port of Tartus. The regions role in the debate about whether the current conflict will evolve into a sectarian-based civil war has been as critical as its geographical significance. Homs and Hama are wrestling with the demographic challenge resulting from the policies of the 1960s and 1970s that encouraged Alawite families to migrate from the coastal mountains to the central plain, where they either settled in rural areas around the cities and in the southeast neighborhoods of Homs city itself.26 Since the start of the uprising, many Alawite families have moved back to Latakia and Tartus provinces; others have banded together in rural, Alawite-majority towns such as Rabia, ten kilometers west of Hama.27 Hama was not a significant site of opposition activity until early June 2011, but the scale of the demonstrations in the city that month must have rattled the regime. Hamas late entry into the conflict is understandable, given the citys last bout with the Assad regime, in which tens of thousands were killed in the 1982 Hama Massacre at the conclusion of the Muslim Brotherhood Uprising. In early June, a significant uptick in violence left more than thirty protesters dead in the city.28 After months of military occupation, troops and armored vehicles withdrew from Hama at the end of June, sparking what many called the largest demonstrations of the conflict.29 In a month-long tactical pause tanks stayed out of downtown Hama through July, as the Assad regime put a halt to all major operations across the country. Perhaps the security forces needed to reset after three grueling months of operations, such as the June clearance operations around northern Idlib provinces Jisr alShughour (discussed in a later section). Perhaps the regimes leadership paused to take stock of the success of its strategy up to that point, particularly in light of some defections that had occurred. Whatever the reason behind this restraint, the scale of the protests that resulted from leniency on the part of the security forces may have once again reinforced the lesson that stability required offensive security operations. At the end of July, after a month of relative restraint, troops and armored vehicles stormed Hama in an operation timed to begin at the start of Ramadan. During the first three days of the operation, security forces
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shelled the city before taking central Assi Square at the cost of an estimated 200 dead protestors.30 Syrian news agencies reported the deaths of at least eight soldiers, but the operation met little armed resistance as compared to Homs.31 After two weeks of clearance operations in Hama, security forces once again withdrew. The regime did not have to conduct another major operation in Hama for at least three months, once again reinforcing its perceptions of the success of the clearance strategy. While offensive operations tamped down demonstrations in Hama, Homs became more violent with each offensive. Homs led the uprising from the outset: March clashes in Deraa sparked unrest, but it was the April escalation in Homs that fanned the flames. On April 19, after days of clashes, the regime decided to violently disperse protestors staging a sit-in in Homs Clock Tower Square, the day after President Assad pledged to end the hated emergency law.32 The situation in Homs seemed to harden regime resolve to quell the protests. After unsuccessful attempts to break up the demonstrations, the Interior Ministry bluntly forbade protests under any banner whatsoever, and security forces violently broke up the protests by firing into the crowd from rooftops around the square and following up with the riot polices cudgels.33 The intensification of violence in Homs elicited a nationwide reaction, and on April 22, a day opposition organizers called The Great Friday, security forces killed more than 100 demonstrators across the country, marking the bloodiest day of the first six months of conflict.34 The Assad regime may have hoped to quell the uprising in Homs just as it had in Deraa, by thoroughly clearing the city, detaining suspected opposition members, holding key terrain, and firing on anyone who resisted. On May 6, immediately on the heels of the second Deraa operation, the armored units that had isolated Homs for one week cut all communications in the city and entered with tanks, tearing down roadblocks and arresting scores of military-aged males. Over the course of two weeks, the regime conducted major operations in Deraa, Homs, and coastal Baniyas (discussed in a later section), and it announced on May 9 that it had gained the upper hand over the opposition in Syria.35 After one week of operations in Homs, the last tanks withdrew from the Bab Amr neighborhood, just as they had withdrawn from Deraa a week earlier. The regimes use of force may have quieted Deraa and Hama, but in Homs it had the opposite effect. As the
15

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MAR DERAA
18-25MAR Deraa Protests & Clearance

APR
25APR-5MAY Deraa Clearance 17-19APR Homs Escalation

MAY

JUN

HOMS & HAMA

DAMASCUS 25-27MAR Latakia Violence & Clearance

6-12MAY: Homs Crackdown Early MAY: Targeting in Damascus

COASTAL REGION

10-12APR Banias Clearance

6-11MAY Banias Clearance

14-18MAY Tell Kalakh Clearance

IDLIB

4-23JUN Jisr al-Shughour insurrection & suppression

25MAR First nationwide protests 22APR Major clashes in Damascus 9MAY Regime announces upper hand

conflict dragged on, the opposition increasingly resorted By September 2011, the Rastan district of Homs province to armed resistance, particularly in the towns in Rastan had become the center of the maturing armed resistance district to the north of the city. against the Assad regime. The strategically located and Sunni-majority Rastan controls a chokepoint between The fact that the regime conducted sequential operations Homs and Hama where the inland highway crosses the in Deraa and Homs, and a simultaneous operation Orontes River. Former Defense Minister and Assad in Baniyas may illuminate its command and control confidant Mustafa Tlas is from the city, and many fellow capabilities and restrictions. The tanks that pulled out Sunni military officers hail from the district.37 Rastans of Deraa on May 5 clearly did not participate in the May military membership supports activists claims that the 6 Homs assault, 250 kilometers to the north. Therefore backbone of the resistance movement is made up of the security forces chose to conduct these operations deserters from the Syrian Army who had refused to kill one at a time, despite the fact that enough forces were demonstrators. Around Homs, these deserters formed available for both. On the other hand, the regime the Khaled bin al-Walid Brigade of the Free Syrian initiated major clearance operations in Baniyas while it Army. Starting in mid-September, the resistance had was engaged in Homs, suggesting not only that it had overrun the home of the citys spy chief, conducted two enough assets for both, but also that it entrusted at least lethal ambushes on the road north of Homs, and even one of the operations to a subordinate command. captured a Syrian Army colonel from Qardahah, Assads home town.38 Two weeks after the early May 2011 Homs clearance, insurgents killed three soldiers during a series of Starting September 27, the security forces besieged raids in Rastan district, but the regime was not able to and captured Rastan in an operation that required 250 consolidate its gains around Homs.36 The early June armored vehicles and lasted four days. According to crisis in Jisr al-Shughour (discussed in the section on one activist, the resistance forces in Rastan numbered Idlib province) diverted the regimes attention and approximately 100 defectors and 600 other men under resources, underscoring its maneuver and its command arms.39 Regime military spokesmen stated that seven and control restrictions. Once the security forces soldiers and police had been killed and more than thirty completed these operations in northern Syria, and after injured during the operation, but despite this resistance the July tactical pause the security forces spent August the security forces retook the city.40 focused on operations in inland Hama and coastal Latakia. Therefore, the regime was unable to refocus on While the Rastan operation demonstrated the size of the Homs until September. insurgency in central Syria, it also showed its weakness.
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JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

31JUL-10AUG Hama Clearance

27SEP-01OCT Rastan Clearance

3-9NOV Homs Clearance

13-16 AUG Latakia Clearance

17-29OCT Jebel al-Zawiya Insurgent attacks

12-27 SEP Rastan Insurgent Attacks

The armed Syrian resistance has lacked fundamental characteristics that the rebels who overthrew President Muamar Qaddafi in Libya relied on. Critically, the resistance has not been able to hold terrain from which it can operate and organize, unlike Libyas rebels, who enjoyed a liberated Benghazi in which to organize. In addition, Syrias armed resistance has been made up of only small units of deserters and local insurgents, all of whom have been lightly armed, whereas whole units of Libyas army defected. Homs became a focal point in another significant way: stories from Homs have more than anywhere else introduced the specter of sectarian bloodshed. While security forces focused on rooting out defectors and insurgents in Rastan in late September, a string of assassinations took place in Homs that included a number of academics and doctors, none of whom had clear ties to the protestors or were directly involved in the regimes suppression of dissent. Speculation as to the perpetrators ranges from the regimes standard armed gangs to regime loyalists attempting to stoke sectarianism.41 Sectarian tension similarly gripped the towns around Homs. Journalist Nir Rosen recounted his conversations with residents in the isolated Alawite-majority town of Rabia, whose ranks swelled as neighboring Sunni villages expelled Alawite families. The people of Rabia avoided driving near Sunni towns for fear of being stopped at a rogue checkpoint and killed.42 These fears have been well
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founded. In early November 2011 unknown assailants stopped a bus on the road north of Homs and executed nine Alawite passengers. The following day, thirteen Sunni factory workers were similarly pulled from a bus and executed in the same area.43 The role of armed resistance and sectarian bloodshed has been critical in Homs as it has helped the Syrian government justify its violence against demonstrators both internally and internationally. When the Arab League proposed a plan for returning stability to Syria in late October, the Assad regime renewed its offensive in Homs, pointing to increasing armed resistance in the area. 44 The regimes decision to conduct another Homs clearance operation in early November demonstrated its unwillingness to reform, but it also represented a deliberate response against armed resistance.
ThE REGIME CONTROLS DAMASCuS AND ITS SubuRbS

Despite the scale of protests in the northeast and southwest boroughs of the Syrian capital, the opposition has been unable to overrun the government offices of downtown Damascus. One reason Damascus protests have not been decisive is that the large population of disenfranchised Sunnis has been matched by the large population of security forces, namely the Republican Guard, which has managed to suppress dissent. The
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MAP 5 | DAMASCUS

The regimes targeting capabilities derive from deeply entrenched and effective intelligence agencies, but some Damascus joined the rest of Syria in protest over the reporting has suggested the Syrian regime has also used Deraa operation on March 25, 2011, but the protests in electronic eavesdropping and communications jamming its suburbs intensified after the mid-April escalation in techniques to target the opposition.48 This signals Homs. Security forces did what they could to preempt intelligence (SIGINT) technology may be a good example a nationwide call for protest by locking down sections of the type of equipment Obama administration officials of the city. Despite these measures, the scale of the have accused the Iranian Qods Force of providing for the demonstrations on April 22, The Great Friday, led Syrian governments use.49 Additionally, the regime has security forces in Damascus to fire on demonstrators in shown the ability to target and jam oppositions use of the Maadamia, Zamalka and Douma neighborhoods.45 social networking sites.50 Furthermore, it is reasonable to assume the regime gleans further intelligence from The security forces then initiated a more proactive torturing detainees, many of whom die in custody. As of targeting and detention campaign in the city. For mid-August, Amnesty International had recorded details example, on May 5 tanks and troops isolated the Saqba of fourteen deaths in custody in Damascus alone, and neighborhood, cut off communications ahead of a most of the recovered bodies showed signs of torture.51 house-to-house roundup in which the security services detained scores of military-aged males.46 Simultaneously, The number of regime supporters in Damascus has also
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regime has coupled its strong presence in the city with detention and targeting operations that have successfully undercut the oppositions ability to organize. Aside from the security forces, large segments of the Damascus population have continued to support the Assad regime, which has also contributed to dampening unrest.

intelligence officers arrested leading opposition figure Riad Seif at a demonstration, as well as an elderly politician who had recently criticized the regime, and a prominent religious leader.47

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had a dampening effect on the success of major protests in Damascus. Nir Rosen related how an opposition demonstration in early July in the wealthy Mazzeh district brought the locals out to attack the demonstrators.52 On October 26, 2011 tens of thousands of regime supporters packed central Umayyad Square in a rally that rivaled the largest anti-government demonstrations. While these rallies were clearly staged by the regime, as journalist Robert Fisk pointed out, these thousands of people fully supported Assad, even if out of the fear of a Syria without his regime. But if they were coerced, it was by stories from further north, Fisk wrote, I spoke to twelve men and women. Five spoke of relatives in the army killed [by insurgents] in Homs.53 In mid-November, crowds of regime supporters even stormed the Qatari and Saudi embassies in Damascus after these Arab League leaders voted to suspend Syrias membership.54 In a surprising mid-November development, Free Syrian Army forces staged a coordinated attack on the Air Force Intelligence Headquarters in Damascus northwest Harasta suburb.55 September and October reports of defections and armed resistance in the Zabadani valley, thirty kilometers northwest of the city, indicated the possibility of an emerging insurgency in the Damascus area.56 In the November attack, the munitions used and coordination required to successfully conduct an attack so close to the capital may indicate that the maturing insurgency receives external logistical support.

determine whether the regime implemented a deliberate plan that included using shabiha militia to stir up conflict with Sunni populations or whether the violence erupted between these groups naturally. However the violence began, when uniformed security forces moved in to restore order they sided with the shabiha. It is plausible that some members of the Alawite establishment have hedged against the possibility of a post-Assad Syria by consolidating the Alawite hold on Syrias primary port. Either way the result has been the displacement of Sunnis away from this Alawite-majority area. On March 25, 2011 the Friday after the initial escalation of the conflict in Deraa, Latakia became the second city to receive the Assad regimes attention when shabiha violence preceded major clearance operations. The security forces established checkpoints, isolating Latakia and, according to some reports, began to bus in regime supporters from the surrounding countryside.58 Over the next two days, armed regime supporters clashed with protestors and armed resistance in the city. The Syrian government blamed the violence on fundamentalists and Palestinian refugees from southern Latakias Ramal neighborhood, but residents accused the pro-government gangs.59 Before the violence escalated on both sides, the uniformed security services moved in and established a modicum of control over the city but opened fire on unarmed demonstrators in the process.60 The displacement of Latakias Sunni population, particularly its Palestinians, continued through the summer, as former residents moved inland to Sunnimajority areas. As early as June 5, 2011 large numbers of Latakias Sunni residents were fleeing north into Idlib province and Turkeys Hatay province.61 In mid-August, immediately following the brutal Hama operation, security forces conducted another major clearance operation to suppress Sunni dissent in the Ramal neighborhood. The Syrian government said security forces fought extremists, while activists claimed the regime used unwarranted brutality, including naval gunfire.62 While naval gunfire is likely to be an exaggeration, the end result was the wholesale displacement of the Sunni Palestinian Ramal neighborhood, as much of the population fled for Idlib province.63 The city of Baniyas, forty kilometers down the coast from Latakia, also faced early militia violence and security operations. In early April, even before violence escalated in Homs, security forces massed armored
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ALAWITES SECuRE ThE COASTAL REGION

The coastal Sunni population within majority-Alawite provinces of Latakia and Tartus was under pressure from pro-regime shabiha militia and security forces since the first stages of the 2011 conflict. Seventy-five percent of Syrias Alawites live in Latakia and Tartus, and over the past forty years of Assad family rule, the Alawites increasingly moved down from their historic mountain strongholds, such as the Assad clans Qardahah, to populate the rural coastal plain.57 By contrast Sunnis have dominated the coastal cities since Ottoman times. The 1950s influx of Sunni Palestinian refugees into the Ramal neighborhood of Latakia city only exacerbated ethnic tensions. This ethnic dynamic helps to explain why the cities of Latakia and Baniyas were the focus of many of the Assad regimes first clearance operations. It is difficult to
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MAP 6 | NORTHWEST SYRIA

vehicles outside the city ahead of a coordinated clearance. Judging by the low casualty figures, the operation met relatively little resistance from demonstrators, but the assets committed so early in the unrest underscore the importance the regime has attached to Baniyas. During the operation both shabiha and security forces directed intense fire against the suburb of Bayda before beating and detaining scores of military-aged males.64 Like Latakias Ramal neighborhood, Bayda is a Sunni enclave surrounded by Alawite communities.65 During the early April operation, nine soldiers were killed in what opposition sources described as execution for refusal to fire on crowds; however, considerable evidence suggests otherwise. As Syria scholar and longtime observer Joshua Landis showed, news agencies cited opposition reports and questionable YouTube footage purporting to show that the soldiers had been killed for refusing to fire.66 The balance of evidence points to a true ambush by anti-regime forces.67 It is important to remember that the Assad regimes often questionable armed gangs refrain is based on at least a grain of truth.
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In early May, as security forces prepared to enter Homs, the regime leveraged whatever capabilities it could muster for a renewed clearance of Baniyas. Activists reported that as many as 100 armored vehicles deployed to the southern outskirts of the city and that the regime jammed not only cellular and landline phones but even satellite phones.68 Entering the city at dawn on May 7, security forces killed demonstrators and captured hundreds in the sweep, once again targeting the Bayda suburb.69 According to the testimony of army defector Ali Hassan Satouf, the uniformed security forces were as involved in the intimidation and detention campaign as the shabiha. When his unit was sent to defeat armed fighters with sophisticated weapons, he found only unarmed civilians. The soldiers broke into houses, stole property, and arrested dozens of men, which prompted women to throw stones at the convoy. The unit responded by opening fire and killing four women.70 This and other instances of violence in and around Baniyas led many Sunni enclaves in the city to relocate elsewhere as they did in Latakia.
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As the regime consolidated its control of the coastal region during the spring, security forces also cleared the town of Tel Kalakh in mid-May. The Sunni enclave sits on the major highway that links the primary northsouth highway to the coastal highway, less than five kilometers from the predominately-Sunni areas of northern Lebanon and is surrounded by Alawite villages. According to an Amnesty International report, regime marksmen killed a young man near the village center, prompting an exodus that security forces and militia countered with detention checkpoints and ambushes at the towns outskirts. Many fled into Lebanon and scores of men were detained, many of whom died in custody.71 Three factors may explain what prompted this large and thorough clearance operation. First, a clash in Tel Kalakh at the beginning of May had left police officers dead. Second, it is possible that Tel Kalakh was being used as a weapons smuggling hub for arms moving out of northern Lebanon destined for the resistance in Homs. Finally, elements of the Alawite regime may have been eager to displace a Sunni enclave that occupies a chokepoint on the only highway linking Syrias coast to its interior. The long recognized significance of this east-west corridor known as the Homs Gap led the 12th Century Knights Hospitaller to construct the now famous Krak de Chevalier, just ten kilometers north of Tel Kalakh, in order to control the flow of goods and people from the Mediterranean coast to the interior. Whether underlying ethnic tensions caused the violence or some element within the Assad regime deliberately planned this outcome, operations in Latakia, Baniyas and Tel Kalakh shored up regime lines of communication and consolidated Alawite population centers. The consolidation of minority populations on the coast has been accelerated by the approximately fifteen thousand Alawite, Ismaeli and Christian families who have left the volatile Homs area and moved to Tartus.72

after Homs became the center of armed resistance. Idlib shares a jagged mountain border with Turkeys Hatay province in the northwest, but the majority of the province sits on high plateau above Hama provinces fertile al Ghab valley. At the north end of al Ghab, the city of Jisr al Shughour enjoys relative isolation and controls the northern route to Syrias coastline. The highground that dominates the area between the highway to Aleppo and al Ghab is known as Jebel al-Zawiya, where a capable insurgency emerged in the fall of 2011. The early June 2011 outbreak of armed rebellion in Jisr al-Shughour represents a major inflection point in the escalating struggle for Syria. On June 4, regime security forces positioned on the roof of the main post office fired at a funeral demonstration, leading angry mourners to set fire to the building, killing eight security officers in the process.73 The violence quickly spread as the demonstrators overran and seized weapons from a local police station.74 As violence escalated in the days that followed, a portion of the security forces defected. Secret police and intelligence officers accompanying army units reportedly sparked defections when they executed soldiers who had refused to fire on civilians.75 Shortly afterward Syrian news reported that twenty soldiers were killed in an ambush en route to relieve beleaguered security forces inside the city.76 Hours later they reported many more deaths when the security headquarters was overrun.77 Whatever the final body count, the regime suffered its first serious setback. While the opposition eagerly underscored the role of defectors, the regime maintained that armed groups were responsible for the violence. In the case of Jisr al-Shughour both are almost certainly true. A series of accounts support the claim that soldiers did defect in Jisr al-Shughour, and the degree of casualties inflicted on security forces there lends credence to the story.78 Moreover, the event may have encouraged others to defect. Days later, a Lieutenant Colonel defected with a number of his soldiers in nearby Bdama as security forces closed in on Jisr al-Shughour from the west.79 However, it is also likely that local militia played a role in the violence. Jisr al-Shughour was the scene of similar violence in 1980 when residents destroyed the Baath Party headquarters, chased off the police, and
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ARMED REbELLION bEGINS IN IDLIb PROVINCE

The northern Idlib province is a Sunni stronghold that has offered significant armed resistance to the Assad regime. In early June Sunni militiamen, probably in concert with army defectors, killed a large number of regime security forces in Jisr al-Shughour in the first instance of armed rebellion against the state. The insurgency has been alive and well in Idlib province, even
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seized weapons and ammunition. Shortly afterwards, the security forces seized the town and executed more than 100 of the towns residents.80 Jisr al-Shughour had a score to settle with the regime. In the face of a renewed uprising, the regime brought significant military assets to bear against the town. Isolating the western approaches, the military moved in from the East and South with some 200 military vehicles and helicopter gunships in support. While there may have been some clashes and roadside bombs at the towns entrance, the display of combat power sent the rebellious population running for the hills of the Turkish border.81 Syrian military forces continued in pursuit of the defectors and insurgents, rolling tanks into Bdama a week later and into a makeshift refugee camp in Khirbet la-Jouz a week after that. The net result was that as many as 10,000 people fled across Turkeys border.82

security forces have continued in Idlibs major cities since the outbreak of unrest, the distinguishing characteristic of this northern border area has been armed rebellion, from the Jisr al-Shughour insurrection in June to the hit-and-run guerrilla attacks that started in the fall. Like the resistance in Homs, these insurgents have been made up of both army deserters and Sunni militiamen. Because Idlib does not share Homs combustible ethnic makeup, the insurgency there did not share Homs degree of sectarian complications.

ThE REGIME ASSuMES RISK IN ThE EAST

By late October 2011, signs of an increasingly capable insurgency began to emerge in the Jebel al-Zawiya area. On October 17, activists reported that suspected army defectors had blown up a military vehicle near Ehssem, killing an officer and three soldiers.83 The next day a sniper killed a military intelligence officer close to the Turkish border, and suspected insurgents destroyed an oil pipeline east of Saraqib.84 Insurgents also attacked a heavily fortified checkpoint outside Maarat al-Numan, killing seven soldiers in late October.85 Days later, on Despite the desire to avoid escalation in the east, security October 29, insurgents ambushed a military bus, killing forces have ventured into Deir ez-Zor and Abu Kamal, ten security officers near the village of Kafr Nabuda.86 on the Iraqi border, for brief clearance operations and While an operational relationship between the Free Syrian more targeted raids in an effort to tamp down protests, Army headquarters in Turkey and armed resistance in particularly during the month of August 2011. Secret Homs would be unlikely due to communications and police even arrested, tortured and killed key tribal leader logistics restraints, such a relationship is plausible in Sheikh Nawaf al-Bashir in a move that triggered a shorthas not fundamentally Idlib. A New York Times article published shortly after this term backlash in Deir ez-Zor but 93 changed the regions dynamic. increase in insurgent activity suggested a link between Colonel Riad al-Asaads Free Syrian Army in refuge in Syrias Kurdish northeast has been a traditional source Turkey and these attacks.87 While there is little hard of unrest but has not experienced the levels of violence evidence to suggest that the Free Syrian Army is anything found elsewhere, either because the regime has avoided more than a media outlet, the Assad regime has long confrontation there or because the Kurds have waited to alleged that militants have been transporting weapons see how the broader conflict develops. In March 2004, from Turkey.88 Given the proximity to refugee camps in the fall of Saddam Hussein encouraged the Kurdish Hatay to Jebel al-Zawiya, logistical and even operational autonomous movement, and Kurds in the northeastern relationships seem at least plausible. This connection border town of Qamishli started a riot after a football has been bolstered by the fact that Colonel al-Assad, the match, raising Kurdish flags. The violence escalated as leader of the Free Syrian Army, is from this area.89 the rioters burned local Syrian Baath party offices, and Despite the fact that clashes between protestors and
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Regime security forces in eastern Syria have largely preferred to keep the Arab tribes living in the oil-rich areas along the Euphrates River around Deir ez-Zor at arms length.90 Rather than risk full-scale confrontation with this deeply tribal and relatively well-armed population, the security forces positioned mechanized capabilities at the citys outskirts starting in June, particularly after the defections in Jisr al-Shughour.91 Assad may have feared that escalating violence in the region could encourage tribal confederates from Iraqs Anbar province to join in the resistance. Indeed, the regime has accused Iraqbased Sunni insurgents of contributing to the violence since April.92

the local security forces killed seven and wounded many

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in the crowd.94 The regime then deployed thousands of troops and helicopters to quash the growing rebellion. In March 2005 and again in March 2008, violence erupted as demonstrators marched in memory of the 2004 clash. In 2011, a number of factors have contributed to dampening the Kurdish resistance movement. The October 7 murder of prominent Kurdish activist Mishaal Tomo sparked the largest protests in Qamishli to date, but the estimated 50,000 protestors were only a small percentage of the Syrian Kurdish population which numbers around two million. One reason for this is that in early April Bashar al-Assad has promised to grant citizenship to some 300,000 Kurdish refugees from Turkey, discouraging Kurdish political parties from joining the opposition.95 Furthermore, the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK), a violent separatist movement that has repeatedly attacked Turkey, has operated from northwest Syria and has not been eager to jeopardize its safe-haven. The existence of this armed group has both encouraged Assad to treat the Kurds more carefully and dampened Kurds willingness to join the peaceful opposition movement, for fear of being unfairly conflated with the PKK. Meanwhile the mainstream Sunni Arab opposition may have been afraid of association with the PKK because the Assad regime could point to this as justification for his violent campaign.96
REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS AND INTERNATIONAL CONCERNS

communication to Lebanese Hezbollah. Though Iran tempered its public support for Assad in September, privately it is committed to ensuring the survival of the regime.98 Irans Qods Force has likely helped to advise and equip the Assads security forces with electronic eavesdropping, jamming, and crowd control equipment and techniques. Lebanese Hezbollah has continued to affirm its support for the Assad regime since the beginning of unrest in Syria.99 The opposition believes that fighters from Iran and Hezbollah have participated directly in the regimes security operations.100 In a rare December 2011 public appearance, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah even accused the United States of seeking to destroy Syria to make up for its defeat in Iraq.101 Meanwhile Iraqs Shia-led government has increasingly aligned itself with Iran in support of the Assad regime, concerned that the downfall of Assad may embolden the Sunni tribes of neighboring Anbar province to resist the central government and make for an unfriendly Sunnidominated western neighbor. In early December, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki offered his clearest support to the Assad regime when he said, The killing or removal of President Bashar in any way will explode into an internal struggle between two groups, and this will have an impact on the region.102 In late November, Sunni groups in Anbar province began to claim responsibility for attacking Iraqi Shia militia and Iranian Qods Force trainers on their way to assist the Assad regimes security operations. 103 If these claims are true, it would suggest that Iraqi support for the Assad regime has been not only moral but also material. On the other hand, Turkey has aligned against Assad. After years of deepening relations with the Assad regime, Turkey reversed its policy shortly after the conflict began. Turkey assumed a leading role against the regime by allowing both the diplomatic and military arms of the opposition to organize in the country. Ankara imposed an effective arms embargo in September and announced a broad sanctions package in early December.104 Meanwhile, the Gulf States may see an opportunity to curtail growing Persian influence through their leadership of the Arab League. Though these monarchies hesitated to condemn an authoritarian regime, their calculus changed as unrest continued. In early November 2011, when Assad proved unwilling or unable to enact the Arab Leagues plan to end unrest
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Syria lies at the heart of the Middle East. Because of this central location, states in the region have watched developments closely and have sought to affect their outcome. Concerns about regional involvement prompted Bashar al-Assad to underscore the risk in a late-October interview with Londons Sunday Telegraph: Syria is the faultline. If you play with it the whole region will erupt.97 The regimes practice of blaming Syrias unrest on foreign conspiracy is questionable, but the conflict in Syria should be understood in the context of regional competition between Iran, Turkey, and the Gulf States. The Assad regime is a vital ally for Iran, made doubly significant because of its role as the primary line of
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in Syria by renewing offensive operations in Homs, CONCLuSION the League moved forward with measures to isolate the After seven months of conflict and despite mounting regime.105 regional pressure, the Assad regime has not demonstrated This regional divide over Syria emerged through its willingness to step down, let alone abandon its hardening Turkish and Arab statements against Assad offensive security strategy. The strategy of offensive while Iran, Iraq and Lebanese Hezbollah continued clearance operations that Syrian security forces first to support the regime. The November Arab League employed in Deraa has succeeded in limiting the scale decisions to suspend Syrias membership and impose of demonstrations throughout the country. These sanctions highlighted this widening rift: only Syria, clearance operations became critical to the regimes Lebanon and Iraq did not vote for these measures.106 strategy because it did not have enough loyal forces to simultaneously garrison all of Syrias key terrain. The The United States and European Union enacted regimes targeting campaign and use of pro-regime comprehensive sanctions against individuals, militias further undercut the unarmed oppositions organizations, and Syria as a whole. The U.S. sanctions ability to organize within Syria. Operations conducted package did not fundamentally change the sanctions that in the coastal cities consolidated regime control pre-dated the uprising, but by mid-November, Europes over Alawite population centers. The insurgency in ban on Syrian oil reduced production by as much as northern Idlib province has been problematic, but it seventy-five percent in an industry that represents up to has not represented an existential threat to the regimes one third of the Syrian economy.107 This pressure has survival. been particularly damaging when combined with the economic contraction that came with the end of Syrias On the other hand, the insurgent and sectarian violence robust tourism industry.108 However, as U.S. policy around Homs exposed the limits of the regimes strategy. toward Iran has demonstrated, sanctions may hobble the Unrest in Homs has divided the country physically regime, but they will not topple it. More critically, these because it lies on the Damascus-Aleppo highway and sanctions have not demonstrably changed the regimes controls access to the coast. Furthermore, sectarian violence in Homs shored up domestic support for the calculus or its conduct. regime but it also demonstrated Syrias potential for civil The United Nations Security Council has been unable war. to take action against the Assad regime due to Russian and Chinese vetoes. While China has been hesitant to U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern condemn what they see as the internal matter of another Affairs Jeffrey Feltman recently explained that an state, Russia has actively supported the Assad regime orderly transition that removes Assad from power is with diplomatic and material measures. The Syrian in our national security interests, and this is the right regime continues to purchase Russian arms and abide by objective.112 U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has its existing agreements regarding petroleum exploration also reiterated the Obama administrations intent to and naval basing, earning Moscows allegiance.109 The see Assads depart.113 However, the struggle for Syria Moscow Times reported that Russian investment in Syria derives from fundamental obstacles to this transition. amounted to $19.5 billion as recently as 2009.110 In late First among them is the fact that the Assad regime and November 2011, Russia took steps that demonstrated its loyal security forces have demonstrated no intention willingness to block the possibility of NATO military of relinquishing power, regardless of the regimes options by sending its flagship carrier group to Tartus and international isolation. Sanctions and moral support selling Yankhont anti-ship cruise missiles to Syria.111 alone will not achieve this objective, but military options are likely to perpetuate extended sectarian warfare. At the end of 2011 the stalemate in Syria seems likely to continue for months if not years. No credible threat to the Assad regimes survival has emerged, despite crippling international isolation and increasing armed resistance. While the Assad regime probably will not survive in the
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long run, it has proven its ability to sustain its crackdown and resist international pressure. Demonstrations and sanctions are unlikely to force the Assad regime to step down or make meaningful reforms. The poorly armed resistance will not defeat the regimes intact military, but it will strengthen Assads argument that he is fighting a Salafist insurgency. On the other hand, as states in the region continue to become increasingly involved in both sides of the conflict, what began as a peaceful opposition movement may transform into an armed struggle in Syria. The introduction of material support to the armed resistance could lead to a capable insurgency that would allow the regime to justify even greater force and draw the Alawites even closer together. The fate of Libyas Muammar Qaddafi in October 2011 encouraged the Syrian opposition to continue its struggle, but it also underscored the costs of losing for the Assad regime. The regimes violent operations severely limited the possibility of a negotiated settlement. Protestors calling for reform at the beginning of the uprising in March have gone as far as demanding Bashar al-Assads execution in November.114 At the end of 2011, as both sides harden their stance and secure regional support, Syrias slide towards civil war may be unavoidable.

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NOTES
Stability in Aleppo is critical to the survival of the Assad regime and deserves its own consideration; however, protests have not reached the point where they threaten stability in this northern metropolis. 2 Major media outlets have most frequently cited the London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights and the Damascus-based Syrian Arab News Agency. 3 Nikolaos van Dam, The Struggle for Power in Syria, The Montreal Review, October 2011. 4 Nikolaos van Dam, The Struggle for Power in Syria: Politics and Society under Asad and the Bath Party, (New York: I.B. Tauris & Co Ltd, 2011), p.1; Background Note: Syria, U.S. Department of State, March 18, 2011. 5 Hanna Batatu, Some Observations on the Social Roots of Syrias Ruling, Military Group and the Causes for Its Dominance, Middle East Journal, Vol. 35, No. 3 (Summer, 1981), p. 336. 6 Bastian Berbner, The Tolerant Dictator: Syrias Christians Side with Assad out of Fear, Der Spiegel Online, November 30, 2011; F. Allafi and M. Eyon, Patriarch Laham Calls for Unity in Face of Fierce Campaign against Syria, SANA Online in English, December 6, 2011. 7 Nir Rosen, The revolution will be weaponized, Al Jazeera English, September 23, 2011. 8 For example, see anecdotal observations in Robert Fisk, Syria slips toward sectarian war, The Independent Online, October 27, 2011, Nir Rosen, Assads Alawites: The guardians of the throne, Al Jazeera English, October 10, 2011, and Nir Rosen, Assads Alawites: An entrenched community, Al Jazeera English, October 12, 2011. 9 Nikolaos van Dam, The Struggle for Power in Syria, The Montreal Review, October 2011. 10 Ali Alfoneh, Iran Primer: The Basij Resistance Force, PBS Frontline Online, October 21, 2010. 11 Reva Bhalla, Making Sense of the Syrian Crisis, STRATFOR, May 5, 2011. 12 Nikolaos van Dam, The Struggle for Power in Syria: Politics and Society under Asad and the Bath Party, (New York: I.B. Tauris & Co Ltd, 2011), p.32. 13 Nikolaos van Dam, The Struggle for Power in Syria: Politics and Society under Asad and the Bath Party, (New York: I.B. Tauris & Co Ltd, 2011), p. 28. 14 Syrias Assad replaces defense minister with army chief of staff, Haaretz Online, August 8, 2011. 15 Katherine Zoepf and Anthony Shadid, Syrian Leaders Brother Seen as Enforcer of Crackdown, New York Times, June 7, 2011. 16 The Military Balance 2011, International Institute for Strategic Studies (London: Routledge, 2011), p. 330-331. 17 As per FM 101-5-1 (Operational Terms and Graphics), U.S. Army doctrine would probably define these operations as attack to seize missions. 18 Anthony Shadid and Steven Lee Myers, Signs of Doubt On Assad Rule Grow in Syria, New York Times, August 11, 2011.
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Waves of unrest shake Syria, crowds torch party HQ, Al Arabiya English, March 21, 2011. 20 Protestors Are Killed in Syrian Crackdown, New York Times, March 23, 2011. 21 At least 23 said killed as protestors in Syria clash with security forces, Haaretz Online, March 25, 2011. 22 At least 25 killed as Syrian tanks storm Deraa, Jordan Times Online, 26 April, 2011; Adrian Blomfield, Syrian troops open fire on protestors trying to break Deraa blockade, Sunday Telegraph Online, 29 April, 2011; Syria: Six Killed in Deraa as troops seize key mosque, BBC News, April 30, 2011. 23 Syrian army begins gradual exit from DeraaSANA, Reuters, May 5, 2011; Anthony Shadid, A Syrian Beacon Pays Price for its Dissent, New York Times, April 27, 2011. 24 Security forces have conducted cordon-and-search operations in Tafas, Harak and Dael. A mid-November operation in Khirbet Ghazaleh faced significant armed resistance. 25 Anthony Shadid, Syria Broadens Deadly Crackdown on Protestors, New York Times, May 8, 2011; Nada Bakri and Anthony Shadid, Syrians Strike Restive Cities in Fierce Raids, The New York Times, July 31, 2011; Khaled Oweis, U.S. pulls out envoy from Syria over safety, Reuters, October 25, 2011; Dozens killed in Syria clashes, Al Jazeera English, November 15, 2011. 26 Camille Otrakji, Homs: The Capital of Syrian Uprising, Syria Comment, October 18, 2011. 27 The biggest displacement from Homs to Tartous during the current Syrian crises, Syria Politic in Arabic, November 21, 2011; Nir Rosen, Assads Alawites: The guardians of the throne, Al Jazeera English, October 10, 2011. 28 Dozens killed in fresh Syria protests, Al Jazeera English, 3 June, 2011. 29 Yara Bayoumy, Syrian forces kill 34 in Hama, crackdown intensifies, Reuters, June 3, 2011; Anthony Shadid, With Police Absent, Protests Surge in Syrian City, July 1, 2011. 30 Nour Ali, Syrian tanks kill protestors in Hama, The Guardian Online, July 31, 2011; Nada Bakri, Civilian Toll Is Mounting in Assault on Syrian City, New York Times, August 4, 2011. 31 Khaled Yacoub Oweis, Dozens die, thousands flee Syrian tank assault in Hama, Reuters, August 4, 2011. 32 Since the 1963 Baath Party coup, Syrians have lived under a form of martial law that allows the regime to detain suspects without trial, among other things. 33 Anthony Shadid, Syria Steps Up Its Crackdown While Promising Reform, New York Times, April 19, 2011. 34 Anthony Shadid, Syrian Forces Fire at Protestors Funerals, New York Times, April 23, 2011. 35 Anthony Shadid, Syria Proclaims It Now Has Upper Hand Over Uprising, New York Times, May 9, 2011. 36 Liam Stack, Children Are Among Casualties of Syrian Military Raids After Demonstrations, New York Times, June 1, 2011. 37 Khaled Yacoub Oweis, Anti-Assad fighters defy odds in Syrian town, Reuters, September 28, 2011. 38 Nir Rosen, Armed Defenders of Syrias Revolution, Al Jazeera English, September 27, 2011.
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Dominic Evans, Syrian Army Forces Take Back Most of Rastan from Deserters, Activists Say, Reuters, October 1, 2011. 40 Military Source: 7 Army, Law Enforcement Members Martyred, 32 Others, SANA Online in English, September 30, 2011. 41 Nour Malas, Assassinations Sow Discord in Syria, Wall Street Journal, October 4, 2011; Sami Moubayed, Syrians Haunted by Assassinations, Gulf News Online, September 30, 2011. 42 Nir Rosen, Assads Alawites: The guardians of the throne, Al Jazeera English, October 10, 2011. 43 Syria agrees to Arab League plan, Al Jazeera English, November 3, 2011. 44 Syrian tanks launch deadly assault on Homs, Al Jazeera English, November 6, 2011. 45 Deadliest day in Syria uprising, Al Jazeera English, April 23, 2011. 46 Anthony Shadid, Syria Arrests Scores in House-To-House Round Up, New York Times, May 5, 2011. 47 Syrian secret police arrest opposition leader, activists say, Gulf News Online, May 6, 2011; Arrests Surge as Protests Continue, Amnesty International, May 6, 2011; Khaled Yacoub Oweis, Syrian police arrest influential Damascus preacher, Reuters, May 6, 2011. 48 Nir Rosen, The revolution will be weaponised, Al Jazeera English, September 23, 2011; Nir Rosen, Armed defenders of Syrias revolution, Al Jazeera English, September 27, 2011; Anthony Shadid, Syria Broadens Crackdown on Protestors, New York Times, May 8, 2011. 49 Fact Sheet: Executive Order, Syria Human Rights Abuses, White House Office of the Press Secretary, April 29, 2011. 50 Jillian York, Manipulating Social Networks, Al Jazeera English, August 31, 2011. 51 Deadly Detention: Deaths in Custody Amid Popular Protest in Syria, Amnesty International, August 2011. 52 Nir Rosen, Ghosts in the Mosques, Al Jazeera English, September 30, 2011. 53 Robert Fisk, Syria slips toward sectarian war, The Independent Online, October 27, 2011. 54 Syria accused over attacks on Saudi and Qatari embassy, BBC News, November 13, 2011. 55 Syrian army defectors attack air force base, Al Jazeera English, November 16, 2011. 56 Nir Rosen, Armed Defenders of Syrias Revolution, Al Jazeera English, September 27, 2011; Syrian Troops open fire in town on Lebanon border, Reuters, October 16, 2011. 57 Nikolaos van Dam, The Struggle for Power in Syria: Politics and Society under Asad and the Bath Party, (New York: I.B. Tauris & Co Ltd, 2011), p.7. 58 Interview with opposition organizer who was present in Latakia on March 25th, 2011, conducted on October 17th, 2011. 59 Syria strives to restore order in unrest-hit Latakia, Agence France-Presse, March 28, 2011; Syria protests: Tear gas in Deraa as army takes Latakia, BBC News, March 28, 2011. 60 Residents report fear, tension in Syrian city, Associated Press,
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March 28, 2011. 61 Liam Stack, Syrian Army Kills 38 in North, Reports Say, New York Times, June 5, 2011. 62 Anthony Shadid, Syrian Navy Joins Attack on Key Rebellious Port City, New York Times, August 14, 2011. 63 Anthony Shadid and Isabel Kershner, Syrian Enclave of Palestinians Nearly Deserted after Assault, New York Times, August 16, 2011. 64 Liam Stack and Katherine Zoepf, Syria Presses Crackdown in Two Cities on Coast, New York Times, April 12, 2011; Syrian town cut off as army continues assault, Agence France-Presse, April 13, 2011. 65 Nir Rosen, Assads Alawites: An entrenched community, Al Jazeera English, October 12, 2011. 66 Katherine Marsh, Syrian soldiers shot for refusing to fire on protestors, The Guardian Online, April 12, 2011. 67 Joshua Landis, Western Press Misled Who Shot Nine Soldiers in Banyas? Not Syrian Security Forces, Syria Comment, April 13, 2011. 68 Anthony Shadid, Syria Arrests Scores in House-to-House Round Up, New York Times, May 5, 2011. 69 Anthony Shadid, Syria Broadens Deadly Crackdown on Protestors, New York Times, May 8, 2011. 70 Hugh Macleod and Annasofie Flammand, Syrian army cracking amid crackdown, Al Jazeera English, June 11, 2011. 71 Crackdown in Syria: Terror in Tell Kalakh, Amnesty International, July, 2011. 72 The biggest displacement from Homs to Tartous during the current Syrian crises, Syria Politic in Arabic, November 21, 2011 73 Mariam Karouny, Syria to send in army after 120 troops killed, Reuters, June 6, 2011. 74 M. Ismael, 4 Policemen Martyred, More than 20 Injured in Jisr al-Shogour by Armed Terrorist Groups, SANA Online in English, June 5, 2011; Hugh Macleod and Annasofie Flamand, Syrian army cracking amid crackdown, Al Jazeera English, June 11, 2011. 75 Katherine Zoepf and Anthony Shadid, Syrian Leaders Brother Seen as Enforcer of Crackdown, New York Times, June 7, 2011. 76 H. Sabbagh, 28 Police and Security Forces Personnel Martyred in Ambush by Armed Gangs near Jisr al-Shughour, SANA Online in English, June 6, 2011. 77 120 Security Officers killed by Armed Gangs, Residents Flee their Homes, SANA Online in English, June 7, 2011. 78 Syria: What really happened in Jisr al-Shughour?, BBC News, June 7, 2011. 79 Hugh Macleod and Annasofie Flamand, Syrian army cracking amid crackdown, Al Jazeera English, June 11, 2011. 80 Patrick Seale, Assad: The Struggle for the Middle East (I.B. Tauris & Co: London, 1988), p. 327. 81 Syrian Unrest: Army in control of Jisr al-Shughour, BBC News, June 12, 2011; Liam Stack, Syrian Troops Retake Control of Rebellious Town in North, New York Times, 12 June 2011. 82 Syrian tanks enter Turkey Border Village, Agence France27

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Presse, 18 June, 2011; Liam Stack, Syrian Troops Storm Town on Turkish Border, New York Times, June 23, 2011 83 Syria: Renewed Deadly Clashes in Homs, BBC News, October 17, 2011. 84 Syrian Forces in Fierce Crackdown Around Capital, Rights Group Says, Now Lebanon Online in English, October 18, 2011; An Oil Pipeline in Idlib Attacked. Two Terrorist Leaders Killed, Five People Martyred, and Israeli Arms Seized in Hims, Al-Watan Online in Arabic, October 18, 2011. 85 Syrian forces battle anti-government troops, Al Jazeera English, October 22, 2011. 86 11 killed in Syria ambush, News24 in English, October 29, 2011. 87 Liam Stack, In Slap at Syria, Turkey Shelters Anti-Assad Fighters, New York Times, October 27, 2011; see also Jonathan Burch, ExclusiveWar only option to topple Syrian leader colonel, Reuters, October 7, 2011. 88 For example, see R. Raslan, H. Said and H. Sabbagh, Five Terrorists Confess to Smuggling Weapons, Working among Armed Groups and Committing Criminal Acts in Jisr al-Shughour, Lattakia and Abu Kamal, SANA Online in English, October 26, 2011. 89 Interview with opposition organizer who is in contact with the Free Syrian Army, conducted on October 17th, 2011. 90 Deir ez-Zor is also home to an Armenian Christian community. 91 Syrian military assaults intensify in Homs, 16 killed, Reuters, July 19, 2011; Syrian forces begin withdrawing from Deir al-Zor, Reuters, August 16, 2011. 92 Nicholas Blanford, Why Does Syria See a Threat Coming from Tiny Lebanon? Time Magazine Online, April 20, 2011. 93 Syrian forces arrest top tribal leaderopposition, Reuters, July 31, 2011; Tribesmen say Deir al-Zours sheikh is dead; evidence indicates he was tortured, Al Arabiya English, October 6, 2011. 94 James Brandon, The PKK and Syrias Kurds, Terrorism Monitor, Volume 5, Issue 3, Jamestown Foundation, February 21, 2007. 95 Syrian President grants citizenship to Kurds, The Sunday Telegraph, April 7, 2011. 96 Piotr Zalewski, Syrias Kurds: Are They About to Join the Uprising Against Assad?, Time Magazine, October 21, 2011. 97 Andrew Gilligan and Ruth Sherlock, Bashar al-Assad: I wont waste my time with Syrian opposition, The Sunday Telegraph Online, October 30, 2011. 98 Neil MacFarquhar, In Shift, Irans President Calls for End to Syrian Crackdown, New York Times, September 8, 2011. 99 Hezbollah, Amal reassert support for Iran, Syria against conspiracies, The Daily Star, November 21, 2011. 100 Neil MacFarquhar, In Shift, Irans President Calls for End to Syrian Crackdown, New York Times, September 9, 2011. 101 Hezbollah chief in rare public address in Lebanon, Associated Press, December 6, 2011. 102 Adrian Blomfield, Syria: fall of Bashar al-Assad will bring war to Middle East, warns Iraq, The Sunday Telegraph, December 4, 2011. 103 Ana al-Muslim Network Online in Arabic, November 26, 2011.
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Turkey seizes Syrian ship, announces arms embargo, Reuters, September 24, 2011; Marc Champion, Turkey Imposes Sanctions on Syria, Wall Street Journal, December 2, 2011. 105 Arab League plans emergency talks on Syria, Al Jazeera English, November 7, 2011. 106 Neil MacFarquhar, Arab League Votes to Suspend Syria Over Crackdown, New York Times, November 12, 2011; Alice Fordham, Arab League approves sanctions against Syria, Washington Post, November 27, 2011. 107 Nada Bakri, King of Jordan Becomes First Arab Leader to Tell Syrias Assad to Quit, New York Times, November 14, 2011. 108 Ben Gilbert, Syrias Economy Staggering PRIs The World, August 25, 2011 109 Dr. Theodore Karasik, Russias Plight During the Arab Spring: Libya and Syria, Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis, July 12, 2011. 110 Billions of Dollars of Russian Business Suffers Along with Syria, Moscow Times, September 2, 2011. 111 Thomas Grove, Russia sending warships to its base in Syria, Reuters, November 28, 2011; Russia delivers anti-ship cruise missiles to Syria: report, Reuters, December 1, 2011. 112 Hon. Jeffrey Feltman, testimony, US Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee Hearing on U.S. Policy Toward Syria, November 9, 2011. 113 Calls for Syrias President to Resign, National Public Radio, Morning Edition, August 18, 2011. 114 Nour Malas, Bloody, Bloodier Paths for Syria, Wall Street Journal, November 29, 2011.
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