Doug Potash Presents:

QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE

QUOTE OF THE QUARTER
A challenge only becomes an obstacle when you bow to it. Gen. Ray Davis A review of 3Q 2013

THE QUARTER IN BRIEF

U.S. stocks rollercoastered in Q3 2013, but the S&P 500 ultimately gained 4.69% in three months and celebrated another record close on September 18 (1,725.52). The Federal Reserve refrained from tapering its stimulus effort, a move cheered in financial markets worldwide. Global investors sighed with relief as diplomacy headed off a major geopolitical crisis in Syria, and sighed with frustration as bipartisan sparring threatened to shut down parts of the U.S. government and threaten its ability to pay debt. Assumptions of higher mortgage rates didnt exactly reduce demand for homes; foreign stock benchmarks rose, and so did prices of precious metals.1,2

QUARTERLY TIP
If you have a flexible spending account or some other form of tax-advantaged workplace health benefit plan, remember to use it or lose it (that is, the funds within it) by the end of the year.

DOMESTIC ECONOMIC HEALTH

Mirroring Q3 2012, the big economic move of Q3 2013 came in mid-September. A year after rolling out QE3, the Fed unexpectedly announced it would hold off on reducing the amount of its monthly bond purchases. Fed chairman Ben Bernanke mentioned that the central bank could be open to a taper later in the year; Kansas City Fed president James Bullard thought it might happen in October. 3.4 Turning from Wall Street to Main Street, the jobless rate fell to 7.3% in August, down 0.3% from June and down 0.8% in 12 months. Even so, 37.9% of those unemployed in August had been out of work for 27 weeks or longer. Consumer inflation as gauged by the headline Consumer Price Index was minor, increasing 0.2% in July and 0.1% in August. The University of Michigans consumer sentiment index hit a 6-year peak of 85.1 in July, but slipped to 82.1 in August and 77.5 in September. In June, the Conference Boards consumer confidence index was at 82.1, the highest in 5 years; in August, it was 81.8, but in September it fell to 79.7.5,6,7,8 Consumer spending increased 0.2% for July and 0.3% for August; consumer incomes increased 0.2% and 0.4% in those respective months. Retail sales figures were similarly decent: up 0.4% in July, 0.2% for August. In September, the Bureau of Economic Analysis made its final estimate of Q2 GDP 2.5%.9,10 On the factory front, the Institute for Supply Managements manufacturing PMI chronicled a healthy expansion during the quarter, averaging 55.8 (55.4 in July, 55.7 in August, and 56.2 in September). ISMs non-manufacturing index also reached impressive heights, coming in at 56.0 in July and 58.6 in August. Overall hard goods orders slid 8.1% in July, but managed a 0.1% gain in August; minus transportation orders, they fell 0.5% in July and 0.1% in August. The Producer Price Index settled: after Junes 0.8% rise, it was flat for July and up 0.3% in August, when annualized wholesale inflation was running at 1.4%.9,11,12,13 Wall Street and Main Street tracked many other news developments in the quarter. In July, the Obama administration chose to delay one part of the implementation of the Affordable Care Act; the requirement for businesses with 50 or more employees to furnish health insurance plans was pushed back until 2015. Still, online health care exchanges for uninsured individuals opened on October 1 as scheduled. In August, President Obama called for the phase-out of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, proposing to replace them with a new system reliant on private sector purchases of mortgages from lenders, with private capital bearing the bulk of any losses. The quarter ended with a partial shutdown of the federal government looming due to an impasse over the federal budget a partisan dispute that resulted in the first such shutdown since late 1995.14,15,16

GLOBAL ECONOMIC HEALTH

When Secretary of State John Kerry stated that Syrias government had used

chemical weapons against its own people in late August, the threat of American military intervention in the conflict between rebels and pro-Assad forces rocked global stock, bond and commodity markets. President Obama said the U.S. would only intervene with the approval of Congress; before that vote could take place, Russia offered a plan to disarm Syrias chemical weapons stockpiles, one the U.S . accepted. While that conflict eased, global investors certainly had plenty of other headlines to consider.17,18,19 Manufacturing growth appeared to be sputtering in both China and India. HSBCs factory sector PMI for China was but 50.2 in August, and 50.1 in July. Indias HSBC PMI was 49.6 in August; it had been 48.5 in July. The Asia Development Bank estimated Chinas 2013 GDP would be 7.6%, and Indias just 4.7%.20,21 In better news, the eurozone recession was over: its economy had grown for the second straight quarter in Q2 (0.3%), albeit with the euro area jobless rate averaging 12.0% by August. Unfortunately, Italys fractious coalition government t hreatened to come undone at the end of Q3 when five ministers belonging to former prime minister Silvio Berlusconis center-right party quit their posts over a tax hike. This left analysts wondering if Italy would face a credit downgrade, and possibly an emergency election.22,23

WORLD MARKETS

Gains were prevalent in the quarter, boosted further by the mid-September announcement that the Fed would not yet taper. Some notable Q3 advances: Shanghai Composite, 9.88%; Hang Seng, 9.89%; Nikkei 225, 5.69%; Asia Dow, 4.33%; Kospi, 7.17%; Europe Dow, 15.56%; STOXX 600, 8.93%; CAC 40, 10.82%; DAX, 7.98%; FTSE 100, 3.97%; TSX Composite, 5,43%; Bovespa, 10.29% ... and lapping the field, more or less, Argentinas MERVAL rose an astonishing 60.73%. Among the big global indices, the Global Dow gained 9.57%, the MSCI World Index 7.68% and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index 5.01%. The Jakarta Composite lost 10.43% in Q3, the IPC All-Share 1.08% and the Sensex 0.08%.1,24

COMMODITIES MARKETS
After a disastrous Q2, precious metals rebounded on the COMEX in Q3: gold gained 8.4%, silver 11.5%, platinum 5.4% and palladium 10.1%. Oil futures rose 6.0% in Q3; natural gas was nearly flat for the quarter, RBOB gasoline lost 3.0%, and heating oil rose 3.9%. This has not been a good year for key crops so far: the worst quarter for corn in 17 years and the worst quarter for soybeans in four put those respective futures at -36.8% and -9.6% YTD. Wheat was down 12.8% YTD at the end of the quarter; at least rice stood at +1.8% YTD.25,26,27,28

REAL ESTATE
Existing home sales were still up 1.7% in August, the National Association of Realtors noted, with buyers scrambling to lock in rates after a 6.5% gain for July. New home sales fluctuated down 14.1% in July, but back up 7.9% a month later. As for new residential construction, it was hard to spot a trend - the Census Bureau reported housing starts up 0.9% in August, and building permits down 3.8% (although permits for single-family construction were up 3% in August to the highest level in 5 years). Pending home sales fell 1.4% for July and another 1.6% for August. Home values as measured by the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index had risen 12.4% in a year by July. 9,29,30,31 Contrary to the assumption of many, mortgage rates actually declined in the quarter. Eyeing Freddie Macs June 27 and September 26 Primary Mortgage Market Surveys, we see the following descents: 30-year FRM, 4.46% to 4.32%; 15-year FRM, 3.50% to 3.37%; 5/1-year ARM, 3.08% to 3.07%; 1-year ARM, 2.66% to 2.63%.32

LOOKING BACKLOOKING FORWARD

The S&P 500 ended Q3 at 1,681.55, the NASDAQ at 3,771.48 and the DJIA at 15,129.67, finishes that lead to the impressive Q3 and YTD numbers seen on the following chart. The Russell 2000 closed at a new all-time high of 1,078.41 on September 26, rising 9.85% for Q3 to end September at 1,073.79; the CBOE VIX fell

1.54% in Q3 and ended the quarter at 16.60.1,2

% CHANGE Y-T-D 3Q CHG 1-YR CHG 10-YR AVG

DJIA NASDAQ S&P 500

REAL YIELD

+15.46 +24.90 +17.91

9/30 RATE

+1.48 +10.82 +4.69

1 YR AGO

+11.95 +21.13 +16.41

5 YRS AGO

+6.31 +11.11 +6.88

10 YRS AGO

10 YR TIPS

0.45%

-0.78%

2.25%

1.95%
1,33,34

Sources: online.wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 9/30/13 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends.

The drama in Washington is on every investors mind and hopefully will not become the defining political and economic event of the fourth quarter. Should the shutdown drag on for more than a week, Q4 GDP could be impacted by fractions of a percentage point. Should the fight over the debt ceiling be prolonged, who knows what might happen. The last time the U.S. faced the risk of default (summer 2011), S&P downgraded Americas credit rating and a 14% correction hit the Dow. Perhaps earnings season can serve as a bit of a distraction, although hopes arent particularly high for this next one; some of the major factors that have contributed to corporate profits (super-low interest rates, a weak greenback, minor inflation and sustained demand from emerging markets) may be lessening. So there are challenges aplenty for Wall Street in the coming quarter. Who knows if stocks can vault over these obstacles as easily as they have so far in 2013, there may be more upside in the final quarter of the year.35
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Doug Potash disclosure

This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. Marketing Library.Net Inc. is not affiliated with any broker or brokerage firm that may be providing this information to you. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is not a solicitation or recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the NYSE) and NYSE Arca (formerly kn own as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. The SSE Composite Index is an index of all stocks (A and B shares) that are traded at the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The Hang Seng Index is a freefloat-adjusted market capitalization-weighted stock market index that is the main indicator of the overall market performance in Hong Kong. Nikkei 225 (Ticker: ^N225) is a stock market index for the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE). The Nikkei average is the most watched index of Asian stocks. The Asia Dow is an equal-weighted, 30-stock index that measures 30 of the leading blue-chip stocks traded in the Asia/Pacific region. The KOSPI Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all common shares on the Korean Stock Exchanges. The Europe Dow measures the European equity markets by tracking 30 leading blue-chip companies in the region. The Dow Jones STOXX 600 Index captures more than 90% of the aggregate market cap of European-based companies. The CAC-40 Index is a narrow-based, modified capitalization-weighted index of 40 companies listed on the Paris Bourse. The DAX 30 is a Blue Chip stock market index consisting of the 30 major German companies trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. The FTSE 100 Index is a share index of the 100 most highly capitalized companies listed on the London Stock Exchange. The S&P/TSX Composite Index is an index of the stock (equity) prices of the largest companies on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) as measured by market capitalization. The Bovespa Index is a gross total return index weighted by traded volume & is comprised of the most liquid stocks traded on the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange. The price-weighted MERVAL Index (MERcado de VALores, literally Stock Exchange) is the most important index of the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange. The Global Dow (GDOW) is a 150-stock index of corporations from around the world, created by Dow Jones & Company. The MSCI World Index is a free-float weighted equity index that includes developed world markets, and does not include emerging markets. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index consisting of indices in more than 25 emerging economies. The Jakarta Stock Price Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index of all stocks listed on the regular board of the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The Mexican IPC index (Indice de Precios y Cotizaciones) is a capitalization-weighted index of the leading stocks traded on the Mexican Stock Exchange. BSE Sensex or Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitivity Index is a valueweighted index composed of 30 stocks that started January 1, 1986.The US Dollar Index measures the performance of the U.S. dollar against a basket of six currencies. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

Citations.

1 - online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3024-m_globalstockindexes.html [10/1/13] 2 - blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/10/01/russell-2000s-record-points-to-sp-500-breakout-too/ [10/1/13] 3 - tinyurl.com/nkv5gh8 [9/18/13] 4 - dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2013/09/20/Bullard_Suggests_Fed_May_Taper_in_October_Dollar_Rises.html [9/20/13] 5 - ncsl.org/issues-research/labor/national-employment-monthly-update.aspx [9/6/13] 6 - briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2013/09/16-20 [9/20/13] 7 - usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/09/27/sept-consumer-sentiment/2882673/ [9/27/13] 8 - usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/2013/09/24/consumer-confidence/2860637/ [9/24/13] 9 - briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2013/09/23-27 [9/30/13] 10 - reuters.com/article/2013/09/13/idUSLNSDKE97K20130913 [9/13/13] 11 - ism.ws/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm [10/1/13] 12 - ism.ws/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm [9/5/13] 13 - bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm [9/13/13] 14 - miamiherald.com/2013/09/26/3652436/obamacare-program-for-small-business.html [9/26/13] 15 - dailyfinance.com/2013/08/06/obama-shuttdown-freddie-mac-fannie-mae-mortgages/ [8/6/13] 16 - tinyurl.com/lg4yjk7 [9/28/13] 17 - marketwatch.com/story/syria-intervention-fears-hit-global-markets-2013-08-27 [8/27/13] 18 - tinyurl.com/lexe8vw [9/1/13] 19 - bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-14703995 [9/28/13] 20 - sfgate.com/technology/businessinsider/article/LIVE-Thousands-Of-Companies-Around-The-World-Are-4858840.php [9/29/13] 21 - chinapost.com.tw/taiwan/national/national-news/2013/10/03/390366/Taiwan-to.htm [10/3/13] 22 - economy.com/dismal/outlook/country.aspx?geo=IEUZN [9/30/13] 23 - etftrends.com/2013/09/abrupt-resignations-in-coalition-government-upends-italy-etf/ [9/30/13] 24 - mscibarra.com/products/indices/international_equity_indices/gimi/stdindex/performance.html [9/30/13] 25 - coinnews.net/2013/09/30/gold-silver-soar-in-quarter-us-bullion-coins-split-in-september/ [9/29/13] 26 - marketwatch.com/story/oil-futures-drop-on-shutdown-fears-china-data-2013-09-30 [9/30/13] 27 - online.wsj.com/mdc/public/npage/2_3050.html?mod=mdc_curr_dtabnk&symb=DXY [10/2/13] 28 - reuters.com/article/2013/09/30/markets-grains-idINL1N0HQ0YU20130930 [9/30/13] 29 - fool.com/investing/general/2013/09/19/existing-home-sales-rise-17-on-mortgage-rate-rush.aspx [9/19/13] 30 - investorplace.com/2013/09/new-home-sales-rebound-in-august-after-july-slump/ [9/25/13] 31 - foxbusiness.com/economy/2013/09/18/housing-starts-permits-miss-expectations-in-august/ [9/18/13] 32 - freddiemac.com/pmms/ [10/2/13]

33 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F1%2F12&x=0&y=0 [9/30/13] 33 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F1%2F12&x=0&y=0 [9/30/13] 33 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F1%2F12&x=0&y=0 [9/30/13] 33 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=9%2F30%2F03&x=0&y=0 [9/30/13] 33 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=9%2F30%2F03&x=0&y=0 [9/30/13] 33 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=9%2F30%2F03&x=0&y=0 [9/30/13] 34 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [10/2/13] 35 - usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2013/09/30/stocks-quarterly-roundup/2896279/ [9/30/13]

Doug Potash, CRPC

Partner

Premier Planning Group 115 West Street, Suite 400 Annapolis, Maryland 21401 http://www.premierplanninggroup.com/#!doug-potash/c8x7 Phone: 443-837-2550 Cell: 443-994-1897 Fax: 410-216-9515

Doug Potash is a Registered Representative offering securities through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a federally registered investment advisor. Cambridge and Premier Planning Group are not affiliated.