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5-May-09 BUY IN MAY

U.S. and Asian stocks rose again (Japanese markets are closed today), extending a rally in which global equities have wiped out their
2009 losses, as better-than-expected U.S. home sales added to signs the worst of the global recession has passed. The S&P 500 jumped
29.72 points, or 3.4%, to 907.24 as a late burst of buying turned the benchmark positive for the year to date, up 0.4%. Its financial sector
jumped 10%, and its basic-materials sector gained 5.6%.In another sign of the economic optimism, crude-oil futures settled at $54.47 a
barrel, the highest level this year. Crude has gained more than 9% in the last four trading days and is up 60% from its 2009 closing low of
$33.98, hit on February 12, 2009. With stocks substantially above their worst levels for the current bear market, market watchers said that
some investors were now feeling compelled to push funds into the market after missing out on the early part of the rally. Financial stocks
bounced, with Citigroup rising 7.7% and Bank of America up 19% ahead of the expected release later this week of the results of the
U.S. government's stress tests of key banks. Bank of America denied a report that it's seeking to raise another $10 billion in capital. Wells
Fargo surged 24% despite a report that it was told by regulators it needed more capital.
As the bear market of the early 2000s came to a close in 2003, and the major indexes went above their 200-day moving averages,
investors were given a signal to once again enter the markets. Those that followed this technical indicator were rewarded. Sooner or later,
we'll be hitting that point again, as investors contemplate dipping their toes back into the water after a long period on the shoreline.
Investors who stick to strategies such as "Sell in May and go away" could potentially be setting themselves up for a missed opportunity.
March’s US pending homes sales and construction spending data provide further tentative evidence that the rate at which
activity is contracting has slowed. The 3.2% m/m bounce in the pending home sales index was the second increase in a row and
supports other evidence that, after nearly three years of freefall, housing activity may have found a floor.
The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Survey suggests credit crunch as eased. The proportion of banks intending to tighten lending
standards in the second quarter fell again across a wide range of loan types. Over the past six months, the percentage of banks
tightening standards on corporate loans has halved. The percentage of banks who intend to tighten standards on prime mortgages in the
second quarter did edge up, but it remains well below the peak reached in the final quarter of last year. The recent decline in 30-year fixed
mortgage interest rate to record lows of below 5.0 % appears to have prompted a big rebound in the demand for prime mortgages. Most
of this demand is for refinancing rather than actual home purchases, but even refinancing will support consumption by boosting effective
disposable incomes. The survey points to sharp moderation in the rate of decline of corporate loans early next year and suggests that the
rate of decline in house prices may have peaked.
Last Friday, the Fed announced that, starting in June, commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) and securities backed by
insurance premium finance loans will be eligible collateral under the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF). The
inclusion of CMBS as eligible collateral for TALF loans will help prevent defaults on economically viable commercial properties, increase
the capacity of current holders of maturing mortgages to make additional loans, and facilitate the sale of distressed properties. More than
1.5 million insurance premium finance loans are extended to small businesses each year so they can obtain property and casualty
insurance. The loans are often funded through the asset-backed securities (ABS) market and have become more expensive and more
difficult to obtain since the shutdown of that market last fall. The inclusion of insurance premium ABS as TALF-eligible collateral will
facilitate the flow of credit to small businesses. The Board also authorized TALF loans with maturities of five years. Currently, all TALF
loans have maturities of three years. TALF loans with five-year maturities will be available for the June funding to finance purchases of
CMBS, ABS backed by student loans, and ABS backed by loans guaranteed by the Small Business Administration. The Board indicated
that up to $100 billion of TALF loans could have five-year maturities.

WTI €/$ $/¥ 10 yr US 10 yr Euro Basic Energy Financ Health Tech Tel Indus Utilities SOX S&P NAS DOW Close

Last 54,1 1,3369 98,76 3,15 3,24 6,30 3,29 9,00 1,96 1,98 2,70 3,27 1,58 5,47 3,39 2,58 2,61 US
Perf 1d % 98,15 -0,28 0,03 0,01 bp 6,5 bp -1,03 0,69 0,08 0,63 -0,90 0,24 -0,39 -0,02 -1,43 0,03 -0,71 0,03 Europe
ECONOMIC DATA with impact
In the U.S., watch for the ISM non-manufacturing index for April, expected at 42.0 vs 40.8. The index plunged from 50.0 in September
2008 to its historical lowest level of 37.4 in November 2008 before rebounding to 42.9 in January. In March, the business activity index
rose sharply to 44.1 vs. 40.2 while prices paid index nosedived to 39.1 from 48.1. These moves may accelerate in April.

POSITIVE IMPACTS
. FIAT : Italy's new car registrations fell 7.53% in April but Fiat’s brands fell 3% / Market share at 35.17%, up from 33.54% a year earlier /
Supplies of some models, including less polluting cars, were insufficient to meet increased demand / Separately, Sweden's government
confirmed it has had contact with Fiat regarding Saab.
ALSTOM : Q1 revenue €18.74bn (18.99bn exp) / Operating €1.54bn (1.53bn exp) / Dividend €1.12 / Order book €45.7bn at end March
Confirmed op. margin in March 2010 of 9% / Op. margin for power sector between 10%-11% and transport sector between 7%-8%
HEIDELBERGER : FY08-09 operating loss €228m (-204m exp) due to restructuring charge / Net debt down to €657 m thanks to a
reduction in inventories that lead to a positive FCF of €76 m in Q4 / Improvement programme is on track
M6 : Q1 revenue €327.4m (310m e) / Sees operating to fall again this year, with no quick recovery in sight for depressed ad. markets
SSAB : Q1 sales SEK8.04bn (9.95bn exp) but operating loss SEK134m (-248m exp) / Said that in light of the weak demand, its savings
programme will be implemented with continued high intensity with focus on cash flow…
INFINEON said it intends to reduce its debt by purchasing outstanding convertible and exchangeable notes
XSTRATA said its financial position has been strengthened through the successful rights issue in 1Q / Gearing has fallen to 30% and
Xstrata has no significant debt refinancing requirements until 2011 / Q1 coal Output +7.7% / Mined Copper -1.3%
TELENOR : Q1 revenue NK27.1bn (25.93bn exp) / Ebitda NK9.27bn (7.74bn exp) / Repeats flat FY09 organic revenue target + FY09
EBITDA margin target of 34% + FY09 capex at 15-17% of revenues
SWISS LIFE : Q1 Premiums CHF6.39bn (CHF6.2bn exp) / Solvency ratio of 150% / CFO to leave at end of June for personal reasons
HANNOVER RE : Q1 Gross Premiums €2.66bn (€2.60 exp) / NII €198.2m (€214m exp) / EBIT €305.8m (€220m exp) / Non-life CR
95% (98.6% exp) / Forecast for financial FY = ROE at least 18% including one-off effect from ING life portfolio
UBS : Q1 Operating Income CHF4.97bn / Net New Money Outflows CHF23.4bn / Trading Loss CHF630m (CHF-1.850bn exp) / Tier1
Ratio 10.5% / Remains cautious on immediate outlook
GERMAN BANKS : Fin min says Govt to decide on Bad Bank scheme May 13

NEGATIVE IMPACTS
ACERINOX : Q1 revenue €617m (563m exp) / Ebitda loss 98m (-50m exp) / Weak demand forced the company to cut production by
46% on a year ago but up 19% on the Q4 but sees the market recovering in the Q3…
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5-May-09 BUY IN MAY

METRO : Q1 sales €15.1bn (15.2bn exp) / Ebit pre-items €84m (106m exp) as currency devaluations in Eastern Europe weighed / Still
expects 2009 sales growth to fall significantly short of its mid-term target (>6%) / EBIT before one-offs seen to grow > 8%/y in mid term.
ALCATEL : Q1 revenue €3.60bn (3.57bn exp) / Adj. operating loss €254m (-143m exp) / Reiterated guidance for '09.
LINDE : Q1 sales €2.70bn (2.74bn exp) / Ebitda €538m (545m exp) / Said it has become less likely that sales and earnings in 2009 will
remain stable on the prior year, due to the further deterioration of the economic outlook"
ADIDAS : Q1 sales 2.58 bn (2.54bn exp) but operating €58m (110m exp) / Group inventories up 18% at end-March, up 28% in euro
terms / Still sees 2009 sales falling at rate of up to mid-single digit percentage, sees net profit down year-on-year
TF1 : Q1 sales €538 m / Sees Q1 operating income to be loss of €10-15 m (+16m exp)
AIR BERLIN : April passenger number down 3.4% / Load factor down 2.4 percentage points to 76.4%
BEIERSDORF : Q1 sales €1.44bn (1.46bn e) / Confirms it won't be able to reach 2008 sales level in 2009 / Sees slightly positive
operating result this year
DANSKE BANK : Q1 NII DKK7.23bn (In line) / Net Fee Income DKK1.76bn (DKK1.9bn exp) / Loan Impairment charges DK7.99bn
(DK4.74bn exp) / Trading DK7.48bn (DK1.8bn exp) / Loan Losses DKK8bn (DKK4.4bn exp) / Tier1 9%
POSTBANK : Q1 NII €633m (€623m exp) / Pretax Loss €91m (+€100m expected) / Tier one = 7.2% at End-March / Loan Provisions
€124m / Says worst is behind us, Trend improving, aims for 2009 ROE between 13%-15%

RESULTS DIVIDENDS EVENTS

Adidas / Alstom / Beiersdorf / Hannover Re / Hypo Real
Today Cap Gem (€1.00) / H&M (SEK 15.50)
Estate / Linde / Metro Group / UBS / Walt Disney
Total / Adecco / BMW / BNP Paribas / Carlsberg / Holcim / Antofagasta ($ 0.48 +0.056) / Baloise (CHF
Wednesday Italcementi / Lafarge / Cisco / Rhodia / Tenaris / Clariant / 4.50) / GDF Suez (€0.80+0.60) / Kingfisher (GBp E.On AGM
Delhaize / Deutsche Post / Prudential 3,777778)
Soc Gen / Swiss Re / Altana / Ciment Français / Deutsche
Thursday Axa (€0.40) / E.On (€1.50) / Technip (€1.20) Adidas AGM
Telekom / Unilever / Toyota
Adidas (€0.50) / HeidelbergCement (€0.12) /
Friday OMV / Puma Hochtief (€1.40) / Lanxess (€0.50) / Scania (SEK
2.50) / Yara (NOK 0.40)
Monday Lonmin / NEC / TUI
TRADING IDEAS
BUY OIL names as TOTAL / ENI / BP / ROYAL DUTCH on eco recovery
BUY CARS as DAIMLER / RENAULT / PEUGEOT / VOLKSWAGEN
BUY NESTLE / L OREAL / G4S / VIVENDI on reversal Head & Shoulder possibility
BUY GLAXO / PHILIPS / DANONE / UNILEVER looking good & BUY AHOLD / GSZ on double bottom possibility / BUY ROCHE on
island reversal

BUY BAYER / SELL BASF // BUY AIR FRANCE / SELL LUFTHANSA // BUY NOVARTIS / SELL SANOFI // BUY LAS VEGAS SAND /
SELL STARWOOD HOTELS
BROKER METEOROLOGY
ERICSSON .......................RAISED TO HOLD FROM SELL ...................................................................................BY RBS
INFINEON ........................RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT FROM UNDERWEIGHT ..................................... BY JPMORGAN
BASF ................................RAISED TO NEUTRAL FROM UNDERPERFORM ...................................BY CREDIT SUISSE
CADBURY ........................RAISED TO NEUTRAL .................................................................................... BY JPMORGAN
VESTAS ...........................RAISED TO BUY .............................................................................................................BY CITI
MUNICH RE ......................ADDED TO THE MOST PREFERRED LIST ......................................................... BY MERRILL
AEGON ...........................REMOVED FROM THE LEAST PREFERRED LIST ............................................ BY MERRILL
AVIVA ...............................REMOVED FROM THE LEAST PREFERRED LIST ............................................ BY MERRILL

NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE .CUT TO NEUTRAL FROM BUY ........................................................................BY UBS

SWISS RE ....................................CUT TO SELL FROM NEUTRAL .......................................................................BY UBS
TECHNIP ......................................CUT TO NEUTRAL FROM BUY ........................................................................BY UBS
LEGAL & GENERAL ...................CUT TO UNDERPERFORM ...................................................................... BY MERRILL
BHP ..............................................CUT TO SELL FROM HOLD ............................................................................... BY ING
OLD MUTUAL...............................CUT TO NEUTRAL .............................................................................. BY JPMORGAN
ALLIANZ ...........................REMOVED FROM THE MOST PREFERRED LIST .............................................. BY MERRILL
OLD MUTUAL...................ADDED TO THE LEAST PREFERRED LIST ....................................................... BY MERRILL

PLEASE FIND BELOW ON THE NEXT PAGE OUR MORNING ECO

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5-May-09 BUY IN MAY

CHART OF THE DAY

Euro area, GDP, PMI manufacturing and PMI services
Since 2002
a /a , %
3, 5 62
60
3, 0
58
2, 5 56
2, 0 54
52
1, 5
A v ril 50
1, 0 48
0, 5 46
44
0, 0
42
- 0, 5 40

- 1, 0 38
36
- 1, 5 T4 0 8 34
- 2, 0 32
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

P IB - G - P MI m a n u fa c tu rie r- D - P MI s e rvic e s

Source : FMI, Previsions ACDEFI, Global Equities

After reaching a bottom at 33.5 in February, the PMI manufacturing index in the Euro area a gauge of manufacturing activity rose from
33.9 in March to 36.8 in April. Nevertheless the PMI manufacturing as well as services remained under the level of 50 confirming that
the activity is still contracting even if its at a slower pace.

ECONOMIC DATA
Time Country Indicator Period GE forecasts Consensus Previous
9.30 GMT United Kingdom PMI construction April 31,9 30,9
10.00 GMT Euro zone Producer price Index March -0,5%,-2,9%YoY -0,5%,-1,8%YoY
15.00 GMT United-States ISMNon -Manufacturing composite April 43 42,0 40,8
15.00 GMT United-States Bernanke Testifies about financial stability
22.00 GMT United-States ABCconsumer confidence May 3 th -45

Inde x e s P rice % 5 D a ys Ytd Forex Price % 5 Days Ytd

DJIA 8426,7 5,01% - 3,98% EUR/USD 1,3377 1,76% -4,23%
S&P 500 907,2 5,83% 0,44% EUR/JPY 132,18 -4,08% 4,14%
Nas daq 1763,6 5,03% 11,83% USD/JPY 98,82 -2,37% 8,25%
CA C 40 3238,0 4,82% 0,62% Oil Price % 5 Days Ytd
DA X 4902,5 4,88% 1,92% Brent $/b 53,9 9,99% 28,98%
Eur os tox x 50 2419,5 5,13% - 1,15% Gold Price % 5 Days Ytd
DJ 600 203,8 4,58% 2,73% Gold $/oz 902,9 1,04% 2,33%
FTSE 100 4243,2 2,26% - 4,31% Rates USA Euro Japan
Nikkei 8977,4 1,47% 1,33% Central Banks* 0,25 1,25 0,10
Shanghai Comp 2571,8 4,55% 41,25% Overnight 0,20 0,35 0,10
Sens ex ( India) 12165,3 8,98% 26,10% 3 Months 0,18 0,73 0,20
MICEX ( Rus s ia) 957,8 3,86% 54,60% 10 Y ears** 3,15 3,24 1,41
Bov es pa ( Bras il) 50404,5 7,77% 34,23% *US: Fed Funds; Jap: Overnight; Euro: Ref i
** Euro: German Bund rate So urc e : B lo o m berg
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5-May-09 BUY IN MAY

ECONOMIC DATA PREVIEW

Watch in the United-States the ISM non manufacturing composite for April due at 15.00 GMT expected to increase after declining for
the last two month, mainly led by the good resistance of the U.S. household consumption which reached 2.2% at the first quarter the
highest growth since the first quarter 2007.

Watch in Germany the producer price index for March due as well at 10.00 GMT expected to remained stable at -0.5% since last
month but which should drop at a faster pace from a year ago led by the drop of energy prices./JB

ECONOMY
UNITED-STATES : PENDING HOME SALES AND CONSTRUCTION SPENDING ROSE IN MARCH
After dropping of 7.7% in January pending home sales bounce of 3.2% in March revealing the second monthly increase of signed
purchase agreements or pending home resale’s following the 2.0% rise in February. This rise is happening after nearly three years of
free fall is showing that housing activity may have found a floor. In addition and unexpectedly construction spending rose from -1.0% in
February to 0.3% in March (forecast -1.6%) showing the first rise in six months as increases in commercial and governments projects
are overshadowing a drop in home building. In the coming months the Keynesian government revival plan will increase significantly
spending on infrastructure as state and local government use funds from the $ 787 billion fiscal stimulus package. These encouraging
data from the housing market are another sign that housing market which was at the origin of the crisis might be the first to recover.
More generally we expect an economic recovery starting this summer.

EURO ZONE : THE PMI MANUFACTURING INDEX ROSE IN APRIL

After reaching a bottom at 33.5 in February, the PMI manufacturing index in the Euro area a gauge of manufacturing activity rose from
33.9 in March to 36.8 in April. The breakdown by country shows and increase of the PMI manufacturing in the majors members of the
Euro area. Indeed in France the PMI rose from 36.5 to 40.1 , from 32.4 to 35.4 in Germany and from 34.6 to 37.2 in Italy . These
encouraging data are showing that the worst might be over and that slowly the recession is cooling down in the euro area. Nevertheless
the unemployment remained at high level in Europe and the PMI manufacturing remained under the level of 50 confirming that the
activity is still contracting even if its at a slower pace.

GERMANY : RETAIL SALES UNEXPECTEDLY DECLINED IN MARCH

German retail sales dropped from 0.0% in February to -1.0% in March (forecast 0.2%). This drop was mainly led by the rise of
unemployment from 8.1% in march to 8.3% in April the highest level since 2007. Indeed unemployment is humping household purchase
power reducing domestic demand and forcing companies to lay off in order to match the gloomy economic environment as a vicious
circle. From a year ago German’s retail sales dropped of 1.5% ( prior -6.2%) which is more than forecast (-0.3%). Germany is facing its
strongest economic crisis since world war the year 2009 with a “growth deficit” of 2%. As a matter of fact the German’s GDP should drop
of 1.5% in 2009 a record since Germany reunification./JB
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5-May-09 BUY IN MAY

VIX index : impliedvolatility on the S&P 500 $Libor -3-Month(InterbankRate)
6
85
80 5,5
75
5
70
65 4,5
60
55 4
50
3,5
45
40 3
35
30 2,5
25
20 2
15 1,5
10
5 1
07/05/2007 07/11/2007 07/05/2008 07/11/2008 07/05/2009 07/05/2007 07/11/2007 07/05/2008 07/11/2008 07/05/2009
Source : Bloomberg Source : Bloomberg

UnitedStates : 10-year Treasury yield 10-year Treasury spreadUSA-Euro zone

5,5 1,2
5,25 1
5
0,8
4,75
0,6
4,5
4,25 0,4
4 0,2
3,75
0
3,5
3,25 -0,2
3 -0,4
2,75
-0,6
2,5
2,25 -0,8

2 -1
07/05/2007 07/11/2007 07/05/2008 07/11/2008 07/05/2009 07/05/2007 07/11/2007 07/05/2008 07/11/2008 07/05/2009
Source : Bloomberg Source : Bloomberg

Oil : Brent ($/b) Forex : Euro vs Dollar (EUR/USD)

150 1,65
140
1,6
130
1,55
120
110 1,5
100
1,45
90
1,4
80
70 1,35
60
1,3
50
40
1,25

30 1,2
07/05/2007 07/11/2007 07/05/2008 07/11/2008 07/05/2009 07/05/2007 07/11/2007 07/05/2008 07/11/2008 07/05/2009
Source : Bloomberg Source : Bloomberg