WWW.GLOBAL-EQUITIES.

COM / DEL SARTE / + 33 (0) 1 44 43 33 24

18-Feb-09 FOOL’S GOLD

The rise in the U.S. NAHB (National Association of Home-Builders) Housing Market Index (HMI) from a record low of 8 in
January to 9 in February (vs. 19 one year ago and 33 two years ago) gave us some comfort as it may hint that some buyers are willing
to venture back in the market. Declining prices and low mortgage rates may have led the NAHB index to bottom out. Pending home sales
rose in January and existing home sales rose in December (+6.5 % at 4.74 million units annualized). According to the NAHB “looking
forward, we are certainly hopeful that the newly passed economic stimulus bill, which includes some favourable elements for first-time
home buyers and small businesses, will have a positive impact that will help get housing and the economy back on track”. Provisions
within the overall stimulus package that should help stimulate demand for housing and otherwise bolster the housing sector include a new
and improved, $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit; an extension of 2008 FHA, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loan limits for high-cost
areas through the end of this year; an expansion of the net operating loss carry back period from two years to five for small businesses;
and other tax elements relating to energy-efficient and low-income housing programs. Regionally, the HMI rose a single point in both the
South and West, to 12, and 5, respectively, in February. The Midwest posted a two-point gain, to 8, and the Northeast registered a one-
point decline, to 9. Although the consensus waits for a decline to 530k annualized vs. 550K, U.S. housing starts in January (released
today at 13.30 GMT) may add to positive data about the housing market.
A decrease in oil prices may also add to positive impact of stimulus plans. Crude oil traded below $35 a barrel in New York on
speculation that U.S. stockpiles climbed for the 19th time in 21 weeks (today at 15.30 GMT). Prices for oil to be delivered in future months
are higher than for earlier ones, a situation known as contango, allowing buyers to profit from hoarding oil. The price of oil for delivery in
April is $3.47 a barrel higher than for March. December futures are up $13.55 a barrel from the front month. The build in supplies at
Cushing, Oklahoma, where WTI grade, is stored, has contributed to the contango. The Opec cut oil production 3.5 % in January.
Producers with output quotas, all members except Iraq, pumped 26.2 million barrels a day, 1.355 million more than their target of 24.845
million barrels a day.
We wrote yesterday that gold price could soon reach $1 000 /oz, considering that it was the best insurance against inflation and
deflation fears that appear to be both present in investors’ minds at the same time according to the high volatility of U.S. Treasury long
th
term yields since the end of last year. Yesterday gold’s future price reached $974.20 /oz after a low of $712.30 on November 12 , 2008.
th
Gold’s price reached a record $1,033.90 an ounce on March 17 , 2008 in New York and ended last year down 14 percent from that mark
as falling asset prices forced investors to sell the metal to cover losses in other markets. Gold jumped to the highest price since July on
speculation that low interest rates and government spending will devalue currencies, boosting the appeal of precious metals as a store of
value. Silver and platinum also rose. Gold priced in euros and pounds reached records yesterday as equities worldwide slumped on
concern that the global recession may deepen. Investment in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by bullion,
rose 14 percent last week to a record 985.9 metric tons. Gold is up 10 % this year. Russia’s central bank raised gold’s share in reserves,
and plans to continue this trend in 2009. And the correlation between a rise of gold’s price and a decline of the dollar is not confirmed this
time: this morning, the dollar rose as high as 1.2590 EUR/USD.
Although Obama officially signed “The American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan” into law, equity markets went sharply down
yesterday for many reasons: 1) the decline of the Empire State Manufacturing Index to a new low in February 2) the fraud for an amount
of $9.2bn at the Stanford Group in Texas 3) Moody’s survey on banks showing that they face huge risks in eastern European countries 4)
General Motors saying it needs as much as $16.6bn in new U.S. loans, more than doubling the aid to date, must get some of the cash
next month to survive, and plans 47,000 more job cuts worldwide this year 5) a sharp decline in energy stocks after oil prices went below
$35 /bbl. The bright spot came from Wal Mart (+3.68 % during the session) that topped Q4 estimates.
As equity indexes are close to a decade low, we confirm that various rescue plans, quantitative easing from central banks and pro-active
budget policies will lead to an economic recovery and give equity markets an upside in the short term.
WTI €/$ $/¥ 10 yr US 10 yr Euro Basic Energy Financ Health Tech Tel Indus Utilities SOX S&P NAS DOW Close

Last 34,6 1,2587 92,37 2,65 2,98 -6,12 -6,34 -8,37 -1,98 -4,58 -4,31 -4,75 -4,90 -6,66 -4,56 -4,15 -3,79 US
Perf 1d % -6,18 0,04 0,04 0,53 bp -6,2 bp -4,76 -5,28 -6,06 -2,21 -4,24 -4,51 -4,09 -3,76 -6,36 -3,87 -3,72 -3,23 Europe
ECONOMIC DATA with impact
MBA Mortgage Applications –12.00 GMT –
Import Price Index – 13.30 GMT – exp –1.2%
Housing starts – 13.30 GMT – exp 529 K
Industrial Production – 14.15 GMT – exp –1.5%
Fed releases Minutes from January 27-28 FOMC meeting – 19.00 GMT
POSITIVE IMPACTS
ABERTIS is planning to increase its dividend payout to 70% of the net profit from the current 52% (Cinco Dias)
ALCATEL : CEO said it very unlikely that the company will deliver a major negative surprise in the next 2 quarters
ANGLO AMERICAN & China Investmt Corp. are in talks to take large stakes in Australian iron ore miner Fortescue Metals (Kpi A$8.4bn)
SOC GEN : Q4 Revenue €5.495bn (€5.239bn) / Oper Profit €1.526bn (€1.437bn) / Tier1 Ratio 8.8% / Propose dividend of €1.20 /
Announces restructuring of CIB unit / No guidance for 2009 / Says postponing implementation of its business plan for Russia
COMMERZBANK : Q4 Ope Loss €822m (€-845m exp) / Trading Loss €701m / Loan Loss provisions €638m (€499m exp) / Tier1 ratio
10.1% end 2008 / Says integration of Dresdner is proceeding according to planSays 2009 will be another very difficult year
CARLSBERG : Q4 sales DK14.52 (14.8bn exp) / Operating DK1.39b (1.20bn exp) / Dividend DK 3.5 (DK 5.00 exp) / Sees 2009
revenue DK 63bn (63.11bn exp) + FY09 operating > DK9bn (8.7bn exp) /
HEINEKEN : FY sales €14.3bn (14bn exp) / Ebit ex one-offs €1.86bn (1.8bn exp) / Dividend €0.62 / No outlook for 2009
EULER HERMES : FY08 Turnover €2.17bn (€2.13 exp) / Operating €168.5m (153m exp) / Cut div to €1.5 from €5 in 2007 / No outlook
NEGATIVE IMPACTS
MERCK : Q4 revenue €1.90bn (1.87bn exp) / Core operating €306m (421m exp) / Sales for its psoriasis drug Raptiva disappointing /
FY liquid crystals Ebit margin down to 44.6% from 53.1% last year / Dividend €1.50 / No outlook for 2009
DSM : Q4 revenue €2.09bn (2.13bn exp) / Ebitda €241m (249m exp) / Div. kept at €1.20 / Cancels share BB / No outlook for 2009
NORSK HYDRO : Q4 revenue 21.37bn (21.08bn exp) / Underlying operating NK 868m (1.48bn exp) including inventory write-downs
of about NK 700 m / No dividend / Sees dramatic decline in aluminium prices & orders / Cutting capex by 40% ex Qatar project
CONTINENTAL : Schaeffler's CFO is to step down under pressure from banks (FT)
RBS may have to pay as much as £8bn to use the government’s insurance scheme (Daily Telegraph)
ING : Q4 Net loss €3.71bn (€3.9bn exp) / Underlying Loss €3.1bn (BK €1.1bn – Ins €2bn) / Tier1 ratio 9.3% end 2008 / Difficult to
foresee whether Co will be in a position to pay dividend in 2009
BANCO COMERCIAL PORTUGUES : 2008 Net €201.2m (€192m exp) / Plans div of €0.017 (40% payout) / Core Tier I ratio 5.8%,
compared with the 6.5% level reported for 9M results but not planning to issue stock …
 WWW.GLOBAL-EQUITIES.COM / DEL SARTE / + 33 (0) 1 44 43 33 24

18-Feb-09 FOOL’S GOLD

RENEWABLE ENERGY : Q4 Sales NOK2.38bn (NK2.56bn exp) / EBITDA NK936m (NOK956m exp) / Sees lower EBITDA in 2009
ACCIONA is looking for a sweeter deal from ENEL for its 25% stake in Endesa and is adding in new clauses to the deal divorce / Now
Acciona is demanding that Endesa awards it contracts worth some €3 bn / Endesa, which was holding a board meeting yesterday, called
it off due to the differences between Enel and Acciona in negotiations over Endesa stake sale (Expansion)

US BANKS : Alan Greenspan said it might be necessary to temporarily nationalize some U.S. banks to fix the financial system and
restore the flow of credit (FT)
GM could need a total of up to $30 bn in US government aid (more than doubling its original aid) / Is in talks with authorities in Germany,
the U.K., Sweden, Canada & Thailand to secure a $6bn aid / Plans to close 14 US plants (5 more than planned) / To cut 47K jobs / GM’s
own analysis of the costs & risks of a bankruptcy filing would require > $100 bn in financing… US Govt has until March to decide
SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS plans to cut facility investment in 2009 by about 35% vs last year (Korea Economic Daily)
RESULTS DIVIDENDS EVENTS
BP (GBp 10.90889) / Rio Tinto (GBp
Carlsberg / Commerzbank / Soc Gen (BMO) / Heineken / HP (AMC) / DSM / ING /
Today 51,43333) / Scottish & Southern Energy Altria
Norsk Hydro / Portugal Telekom / Safran / Sunthes / Goodyear (BMO) / Atos Origin
(GBp 22.00)
Saint Gobain / Schneider / BAE Systems / PPR / BNP / Cadbury / AXA / Eramet /
Thursday Fresenius / Deutsche Postbank / Continental / Man AG / Shire / Reed Elsevier / Swiss BNP Dividend declaration
Re
Arcelor Mittal ($0.1875) / Goldman
Lafarge / Anglo American / Allied Irish Bank / Belgacom / Endesa / Gecina / Campbell
Friday Sachs ($0.466667) / Johnson &
Soup / GM :
Johnson ($0.46)
Monday ACS / Maroc Telecom ST Micro ($0.09)
Tuesday Akzo Nobel / Corio / Deutsche Boerse / Theolia / OZ Minerals / Heinz / Home Depot / Novartis AGM
TRADING IDEAS
BUY BANKS as BNP / SOCGEN / DT BOERSE / CREDIT AGRICOLE on support level & bank sector recovery
BUY AIR FRANCE to play oil prices drop and business starting back on H2 thanks to stimuli plans
BUY DANONE / ROCHE / AIR LIQUIDE on double bottom possibility
BUY CARREFOUR / BNP / on reversal Head & Shoulder possibility
BUY AXA / to play on support level & insurance sector recovery too
BROKER METEOROLOGY
GAS NATURAL ........................................... RAISED TO NEUTRAL FROM UNDERWEIGHT .................................... BY JP MORGAN
DEUTSCHE TELEKOM ............................... RAISED TO BUY FROM HOLD ..................................................... BY DEUTSCHE BANK

STANDARD CHARTERED ......................... RATED NEW SELL .................................................................................................BY ING

MICHELIN..................................................... CUT TO NEUTRAL FROM BUY ..............................................................................BY GS

PLEASE FIND BELOW ON THE NEXT PAGE OUR ECO MORNING

 WWW.GLOBAL-EQUITIES.COM / DEL SARTE / + 33 (0) 1 44 43 33 24

18-Feb-09 FOOL’S GOLD

CHART OF THE DAY
Gold Prices ($/Oz)
since January 2007

1050

1000

950

900

850

800

750

700

650

600
ja n v - avr- ju il- o c t- ja n v - avr- ju il- o c t- ja n v -
07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 09

Source : Bloomberg
Gold prices rebounded almost 36 % from their lowest level in December 2008 and rose 10 % since the beginning of the year. Gold
futures were up to a seven-month high above the $970 level as investors are buying the precious metal as a safe haven. Gold prices
are just about $33 below their record of $1002,95 an ounce set in March 2008…

ECONOMIC DATA
Time Country Indicator Period GE forecasts Consensus Previous
10.30 am United Kingdom Bank of England Minutes December
11.00 am Euro area Construction output December -1,1%,-4,7% YoY
01.00 pm United States MBA mortgage applications 14th February -24,5%
02.30 pm United States Import prices index January -1,0%,-11,2%YoY -4,2%,-9,3% YoY
02.30 pm United States Housing starts January 550 000 530 000 550 000
02.30 pm United States Building permits January 550 000 525 000 547 000
03.15 pm United States Industrial production January -0,7% -1,5% -2,0%
03.15 pm United States Capacity utilization January 72,4% 73,6%
08.00 pm United States Fed releases Minutes from January 27-28 FOMC meeting 27-28 January

Indexes Price % 5 Days Ytd Forex Price % 5 Days Ytd

DJIA 7552,6 -8,58% -13,94% EUR/USD 1,2618 -2,19% -9,65%
S&P 500 789,2 -9,19% -12,63% EUR/JPY 116,59 0,00% -7,93%
Nasdaq 1470,7 -7,52% -6,75% USD/JPY 92,40 -2,17% 1,91%
CAC 40 2875,2 -4,82% -10,65% Oil Price % 5 Days Ytd
DAX 4216,6 -6,41% -12,34% Brent $/b 39,2 -10,44% -5,89%
Eurostoxx 50 2120,0 -6,53% -13,39% Gold Price % 5 Days Ytd
DJ 600 184,0 -5,05% -7,25% Gold $/oz 971,6 3,50% 10,18%
FTSE 100 4034,1 -4,16% -9,02% Rates USA Euro Japan
Nikkei 7534,4 -4,06% -14,96% Central Banks* 0,25 2,00 0,10
Shanghai Comp 2211,6 2,40% 21,47% Overnight 0,25 1,04 0,10
Sensex (India) 8986,0 -6,33% -6,86% 3 Months 0,31 0,97 0,24
MICEX (Russia) 645,2 -11,38% 4,14% 10 Years** 2,66 2,98 1,26
Bovespa (Brasil) 39847,0 -3,30% 6,12% *US: Fed Funds; Jap: Overnight; Euro: Refi
** Euro: German Bund rate Source : Bloomberg
 WWW.GLOBAL-EQUITIES.COM / DEL SARTE / + 33 (0) 1 44 43 33 24

18-Feb-09 FOOL’S GOLD

Economic data preview

Watch in the United-States the release of the housing starts and the building permits for January due at 02.30 am , both expected to get
stable, as real estate and hypothec prices are declining , watch as well the release of the industrial production for January due at 03.15
am which is expected to decrease as the ISM manufacturing and the global demand are sharply declining and as the car sector crisis is
damping the American industrial production../JB

ate

ECONOMY
UNITED-KINGDOM : INFLATION DECLINED IN JANUARY
The United Kingdom inflation rate dropped to a nine month low at 3% from a year earlier ( forecast 2.7%YoY) and fell of 0.7% from
December the most since January 2008. This drop of the consumer price index is mainly due to the decline of oil prices ( less 70 % since
their peak in July 2008) and to the deepening recession. Indeed the United-Kingdom is facing a triple crisis : financial ( credit crunch) ,
economic ( technical recession as the GDP dropped 0.6% at the third quarter and dropped 1.5% at the fourth quarter) and finally a strong
construction crisis due to the explosion of the “real estate bubble”. The country is now on its way to deflation which will be the worst case
of figure. Indeed in such situation the global offer is over crossing the global demand generating bankruptcies and rise of unemployment
cutting the household purchase power ,reducing the demand and finally increasing the deflation as a vicious circle.

GERMANY : ZEW SURVEY ( ECONOMIC SENTIMENT) RISES MOST IN 15 YEARS

German investor confidence measured by the ZEW (economic sentiment ) index jumped the most in 15 years in February at -5.8 . The
investor’s confidence was led by the government action to boost the economy and by the recent information underlining the fact that the
European Central Bank will cut interest rate to a record low. Investors confidence is as well boosted by the drop of inflation led by the drop
of crude oil, increasing companies and consumer’s purchase power. On the other hand the ZEW survey of the current situation dropped
from -77.1 in January to -86.2 in February. The drop is quite logical as the recession is presently deepening in Germany as showed by the
Gross Domestic Product which slumped 2.1% in the third quarter 2008 from the third , the biggest drop in 22 years.

EURO AREA : THE TRADE BALANCE NARROWED IN DECEMBER

The Euro area trade balance unexpectedly narrowed in December from € 4.0 billion to € 0.3 billion. Looking further unfortunately the
decline showed a sharp 3.9% drop in import as the global economic recession is curbing demand for European products abroad .Exports
contracted by 0.8% after declining by the most at -6.8% in November. Finally the region trade deficit reached € 32.1 billion compare to a
surplus of € 15.8 billion in 2007, this is the biggest decline since the introduction of the euro in 1999. As the euro is still too strong
according to the economics fundamentals, this situation put more pressure on the European Central Bank to cut very sharply its leading
rate in next month. /JB
 WWW.GLOBAL-EQUITIES.COM / DEL SARTE / + 33 (0) 1 44 43 33 24

18-Feb-09 FOOL’S GOLD

VIXindex: impliedvolatility ontheS&P500 $Libor -3-Month(InterbankRate)

6
85
80 5,5
75
5
70
65 4,5
60
55 4
50
3,5
45
40 3
35
30 2,5
25
20 2
15 1,5
10
5 1
20/02/2007 20/08/2007 20/02/2008 20/08/2008 20/02/2009 19/02/2007 19/08/2007 19/02/2008 19/08/2008 19/02/2009

Source : Bloomberg Source : Bloomberg

UnitedStates: 10-year Treasuryyield 10-year TreasuryspreadUSA-Eurozone

5,5 1,2
5,25 1
5
0,8
4,75
0,6
4,5
4,25 0,4
4 0,2
3,75
0
3,5
3,25 -0,2
3 -0,4
2,75
-0,6
2,5
2,25 -0,8

2 -1
19/02/2007 19/08/2007 19/02/2008 19/08/2008 19/02/2009 19/02/2007 19/08/2007 19/02/2008 19/08/2008 19/02/2009
Source : Bloomberg Source : Bloomberg

Oil : Brent ($/b) Forex: Eurovs Dollar (EUR/USD)

150 1,65
140
1,6
130
1,55
120
110 1,5
100
1,45
90
1,4
80
70 1,35
60
1,3
50
40
1,25

30 1,2
19/02/2007 19/08/2007 19/02/2008 19/08/2008 19/02/2009 19/02/2007 19/08/2007 19/02/2008 19/08/2008 19/02/2009

Source : Bloomberg Source : Bloomberg

 WWW.GLOBAL-EQUITIES.COM / DEL SARTE / + 33 (0) 1 44 43 33 24

18-Feb-09 FOOL’S GOLD

VIX index : implied volatility on the S&P 500 $ Libor - 3-Month (Interbank Rate)
6
85
80 5,5
75
5
70
65 4,5
60
55 4
50
3,5
45
40 3
35
30 2,5
25
20 2
15 1,5
10
5 1
20/02/2007 20/08/2007 20/02/2008 20/08/2008 20/02/2009 19/02/2007 19/08/2007 19/02/2008 19/08/2008 19/02/2009

Source : Bloomberg Source : Bloomberg

United States : 10-year Treasury yield 10-year Treasury spread USA-Euro zone
5,5 1,2
5,25 1
5
0,8
4,75
0,6
4,5
4,25 0,4
4 0,2
3,75
0
3,5
3,25 -0,2
3 -0,4
2,75
-0,6
2,5
2,25 -0,8

2 -1
19/02/2007 19/08/2007 19/02/2008 19/08/2008 19/02/2009 19/02/2007 19/08/2007 19/02/2008 19/08/2008 19/02/2009
Source : Bloomberg Source : Bloomberg

Oil : Brent ($/b) Forex : Euro vs Dollar (EUR/USD)

150 1,65
140
1,6
130
1,55
120
110 1,5
100
1,45
90
80
1,4

70 1,35
60
1,3
50
40
1,25

30 1,2
19/02/2007 19/08/2007 19/02/2008 19/08/2008 19/02/2009 19/02/2007 19/08/2007 19/02/2008 19/08/2008 19/02/2009

Source : Bloomberg Source : Bloomberg