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The Binomial Probability Distribution PDF

The document discusses the binomial probability distribution. A binomial experiment has the following properties: it consists of n repeated trials with only two possible outcomes (success/failure), the probability of success p is the same for each trial, and trials are independent. The number of successes X in n trials is a binomial random variable with probability distribution P(X) given by the binomial formula. The mean of the distribution is np and the variance is npq. Several examples are provided to illustrate calculating probabilities of outcomes for binomial experiments.

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ElaineSmith
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406 views

The Binomial Probability Distribution PDF

The document discusses the binomial probability distribution. A binomial experiment has the following properties: it consists of n repeated trials with only two possible outcomes (success/failure), the probability of success p is the same for each trial, and trials are independent. The number of successes X in n trials is a binomial random variable with probability distribution P(X) given by the binomial formula. The mean of the distribution is np and the variance is npq. Several examples are provided to illustrate calculating probabilities of outcomes for binomial experiments.

Uploaded by

ElaineSmith
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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The Binomial Probability Distribution

A binomial experiment is one that possesses the following properties:


1. The experiment consists of n repeated trials;
2. Each trial results in an outcome that may be classified as a successor
a failure (hence the name, binomial);
3. The probability of a success, denoted by p, remains constant from trial to trial
and repeated trials are independent.
The number of successes X in n trials of a binomial experiment is called a binomial
random variable.
The probability distribution of the random variable X is called a binomial distribution,
and is given by the formula:

P(X)=Cxnpxqnx
where

n = the number of trials


x = 0, 1, 2, ... n
p = the probability of success in a single trial
q = the probability of failure in a single trial
(i.e. q = 1 p)

Cxn is a combination
P(X) gives the probability of successes in n binomial trials.
Mean and Variance of Binomial Distribution
If p is the probability of success and q is the probability of failure in a binomial trial, then
the expected number of successes in n trials (i.e. the mean value of the binomial
distribution) is

E(X) = = np
The variance of the binomial distribution is

V(X) = 2 = npq
Note: In a binomial distribution, only 2 parameters, namely n and p, are
needed to determine the probability.
Example 1
A die is tossed 3 times. What is the probability of
(a) No fives turning up?
(b) 1 five?
(c) 3 fives?

Answer
This is a binomial distribution because there are only 2 possible outcomes
(we get a 5 or we don't).
Now, n=3 for each part. Let X= number of fives appearing.
(a) Here, x = 0.

P(X=0) =Cxnpxqnx =C03(61)0(65)3 =216125 =0.5787


(b) Here, x = 1.

P(X=1) =Cxnpxqnx =C13(61)1(65)2 =21675 =0.34722


(c) Here, x = 3.

P(X=3)=Cxnpxqnx=C33(61)3(65)0=2161=4.6296103
Example 2
Hospital records show that of patients suffering from a certain disease, 75% die of it.
What is the probability that of 6 randomly selected patients, 4 will recover?

Answer
This is a binomial distribution because there are only 2 outcomes (the patient
dies, or does not).
Let X = number who recover.
Here, n=6 and x=4. Let p=0.25 (success, that is, they live), q=0.75 (failure,
i.e. they die).
The probability that 4 will recover:

P(X) =Cxnpxqnx =C46(0.25)4(0.75)2 =152.1973103 =0.0329595


Histogram of this distribution:

We could calculate all the probabilities involved and we would get:

X Probability
0 0.17798
1 0.35596
2 0.29663
3 0.13184
4 3.2959102
5 4.3945103
6 2.4414104
The histogram (using Excel) is as follows:

It means that out of the 6 patients chosen, the probability that none of them will recover
is 0.17798, the probability that one will recover is 0.35596, and the probability that
all 6 will recover is extremely small.
SNB "Histogram"

Alternatively, we can
use Scientific Notebook's
"Plot Approximate Integral" to
give us something
approaching the histogram of
this experiment. Of course,
the x-values are not quite
right in the SNB answer
(because it was not designed
to do this), so I have made an
adjustment to the x-axis.

Example 3
In the old days, there was a probability of 0.8 of success in any attempt to make a
telephone call. (This often depended on the importance of the person making the call, or
the operator's curiosity!)
Calculate the probability of having 7 successes in 10 attempts.

Answer
Probability of success p=0.8, so q=0.2.

X= success in getting through.


Probability of 7 successes in 10 attempts:

Probability=P(X=7)
=C710(0.8)7(0.2)107
=0.20133
Histogram

Using the
following
function in SNB,

C(10,x)(0.8)x
(0.2)10x
we have:

Example 4
A (blindfolded) marksman finds that on the average he hits the target 4 times out of 5. If
he fires 4 shots, what is the probability of
(a) more than 2 hits?
(b) at least 3 misses?

Answer
Here, n=4, p=0.8, q=0.2.
Let X= number of hits.
Let x0 = no hits, x1 =1 hit, x2 =2 hits, etc.
(a) P(X)=P(x3)+P(x4)

=C34(0.8)3(0.2)1+C44(0.8)4(0.2)0
=4(0.8)3(0.2)+(0.8)4
=0.8192
(b) 3 misses means 1 hit, and 4 misses means 0 hits.

P(X)=P(x1)+P(x0)
=C14(0.8)1(0.2)3+C04(0.8)0(0.2)4
=4(0.8)1(0.2)3+(0.2)4
=0.0272
Example 5
The ratio of boys to girls at birth in Singapore is quite high at 1.09:1.
What proportion of Singapore families with exactly 6 children will have at least 3boys?
(Ignore the probability of multiple births.)
[Interesting and disturbing trivia: In most countries the ratio of boys to girls is
about 1.04:1, but in China it is 1.15:1.]

Answer

The probability of getting a boy is 1.09+1.001.09=0.5215


Let X= number of boys in the family.
Here,
n=6,

p=0.5215,
q=10.52153=0.4785
When x=3:

P(X) =Cxnpxqnx =C36(0.5215)3(0.4785)3 =0.31077


When x=4:

P(X) =C46(0.5215)4(0.4785)2 =0.25402


When x=5:

P(X) =C56(0.5215)5(0.4785)1 =0.11074


When x=6:

P(X) =C66(0.5215)6(0.4785)0 =2.0115102


So the probability of getting at least 3 boys is:

Probability=P(X3)
=0.31077+0.25402+0.11074+2.0115102
=0.69565
NOTE: We could have calculated it like this:

P(X3)=1(P(x0)+P(x1)+P(x2))

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