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Contents - : List of Contributors

This book contains chapters from various contributors on the topic of counterfactual thought experiments in world politics. It covers logical, methodological and psychological perspectives on counterfactual reasoning. It also includes counterfactual analyses of particular historical events and classes of events. Later chapters discuss insights from game theory and possibilities of computer simulations of alternative histories.

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Anuta Costinel
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503 views22 pages

Contents - : List of Contributors

This book contains chapters from various contributors on the topic of counterfactual thought experiments in world politics. It covers logical, methodological and psychological perspectives on counterfactual reasoning. It also includes counterfactual analyses of particular historical events and classes of events. Later chapters discuss insights from game theory and possibilities of computer simulations of alternative histories.

Uploaded by

Anuta Costinel
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Contents _________________

Copyri ght
1996 hy Il 'r S, .. 11, 1 ,-;, "," I I
Published by f' rincct(lfl
l'I f", ,I I
Princeton. New Jersey
In the United Kingdum: Pri nceton 11I1, vC"'IV I'"
West Sussex
All Rights Reserved

Library 0/ Congress Cataloging-in-Publicallon

1)111"

List of Contributors

vii

Acknowledgments

ix

PART ONE: Counterfactual Inference: Form and Function

Counterfactual thought experimcnlS in worl d


l"r " " I,
methodological, and psychological perspecti ves I cd" ed hy 1'111 111' I
Tetlock and Aaron Belkin.
p.
cm .

Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical,


Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives
Philip E. Tetlock and Aaron Belkin

Includes bibliographical references and index .


ISBN 0-691-02792-7 (cl : alk. paper). - ISBN 0 69 1.027<) 1 t) (ph :
alk. paper)

L World politics . 2. History-Philosophy . 3 . Co untcrfoctuals


(Logic). I. Tetlock, Philip. II. Belkin , Aaron, 1966DI6 .9.C645 1996
901-dc20
966.1'.16
C IP

Princeton University Press books are printed on ac id-free paper and


meet the guidelines for permanence and durability of the Committee
on Production Guidelines for Book Longevity of the Council
on Library Resources

9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2
8

Counterfactual Reasoning in Western Studies of Soviet


Politics and Foreign Relations
George W. Breslauer

Confronting Hitler and Its Consequences


Yuen Foong Khong

Back to the Past: Counterfactuals and the Cuban

Printed in the United States of America by Princeton Academic Press

(P
10bk)
9

39

PART TWO: Counterfactual Analysis of Particular Events

This book has been composed in Times Roman

10

Causes and Counterfactuals in Social Science: Exploring an


Analogy between Cellular Automata and Historical
Processes
James D. Fearon

Missile Crisis
Richard Ned Lebow and Janice Gross Stein

'1'1

Counterfactual Reasoning in Motivational Analysis:


U.S. Policy toward Iran
Richard K . Herrmann and Michael P. Fischerkeller

69
95

119

149

PART THREE: Counterfactual Analysis of Classes of Events


7

Counterfactuals about War and Its Absence


Bruce Russett

Using Counterfactuals in Historical Analysis: Theories of


Revolution
Edgclr K iser clIId Margaret tevi

171

187

vi

CONTE NTS

PART FOUR: Countcrfnct lJllls


9

10

111111 CIIIIII' ' 1111'111

Counterfactuals and Int cnl!lt illlHlI A Ihil i


from Game Theory
Bruce Bueno de Mesqllilll

SI1 I11 C

Contributors - - - - - - - - - - - - - - In sights

Off-the-Path Behavior: A Game-Thcore tic Approach to


Counterfactuals and Its Implications for Polit ical and
Historical Analysis
Barry R. Weingast

211
AARO N BELKIN

Doctoral candidate , Department of Political Science


University of California, Berkeley
230

Professor, Department of Political Science


University of California, Berkeley

PART FIVE: Computer and Mental Simulations of Possible Worlds


II

12

Rerunning History: Counterfactual Simulation in


World Politics
Lars-Erik Cederman
Counterfactuals, Past and Future
Steven Weber

GEO RGE W . BRESLAUER

BRU CE BUENO DE MESQUITA

247

Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution


Stanford University
LA R S-ERIK CEDERMAN

268

University Lecturer in International Relations, Somerville College


Oxford University
RO BYN M. DAWES

University Professor
Carnegie Mellon University

PART SIX: Commentaries

Conceptual Blending and Counterfactual Argument in the


Social and Behavioral Sciences
Mark Turner

291

Psychological Biases in Counterfactual Thought


Experiments
James M. Olson, Neal J. Roese, and Ronald J . Deibert

296

Counterfactual Inferences as Instances of Statistical


Inferences
Robyn M. Dawes

301

Doctoral candidate, Department of Political Science


The Ohio State University

309

R I CHAR D K . H E R RMANN

Counterfactuals, Causation, and Complexity


Robert Jervis

RO N ALD J . DEIB ERT

Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science


University of Toronto
J A MES D. FEARON

Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science


University of Chicago
MI CH AEL P. FISCHERKELLER

References

317

Index

337

Associate Professor, Department of Political Science


Director, Program in Foreign Policy Analysis, Mershon Center
The Ohio State University
ROB E RT J ERVIS

Adlai E. Stevenson Professor of International Relations,


Department of Political Science
Columbia University
YUE N FOONG KHONG

Fellow, Nuffic1d College


John G . Wi na nt University Lect urer in American Poreign Policy
Ox foru U nive rsity

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