Chapter 04 - The Value of Common Stocks

CHAPTER 4
The Value of Common Stocks
Answers to Problem Sets
1.

a.

True

b.

True

2.

Investors who buy stocks may get their return from capital gains as well as
dividends. But the future stock price always depends on subsequent dividends.
There is no inconsistency.

3.

P0

4.

5.

P0

6.

By year 5, earnings will grow to $18.23 per share. Forecasted price per share at
year 4 is 18.23/.08 = $227.91.

7.

15/.08 + PVGO = 333.33; therefore PVGO = $145.83.

8.

Zs forecasted dividends and prices grow as follows:

= (5 + 110)/1.08 = $106.48

= 5/40 = .125.
= 10/(.08 - .05) = $333.33.

Calculate the expected rates of return:

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Chapter 04 - The Value of Common Stocks

From year 0 to 1:

10 (350 333.33)
.08
333.33

From year 1 to 2:

10.50 (367.50 350)

.08
350

From year 2 to 3:

11.03 (385.88 367.50)

.08
367.50

Double expects 8% in each of the first 2 years. Triple expects 8% in each of the
first 3 years.

9.

a.

False

b.

True.

10.

PVGO = 0, and EPS1 equals the average future earnings the firm could generate
under no-growth policy.

11.

Free cash flow is the amount of cash thrown off by a business after all
investments necessary for growth. In our simple examples, free cash flow equals
operating cash flow minus capital expenditure. Free cash flow can be negative if
investments are large.

12.

The value at the end of a forecast period. Horizon value can be estimated
using the constant-growth DCF formula or by using priceearnings or market
book ratios for similar companies.

13.

If PVGO = 0 at the horizon date H, horizon value = earnings forecasted for H +

1 divided by r.

14.

Newspaper exercise, answers will vary

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Chapter 04 - The Value of Common Stocks

15.
Horizon
Period (H)

Expected Future Values

Present Values
Dividend
Price
Cumulative
Future
(DIVt )
(Pt )
Dividends
Price

0
100.00
100.00
1
10.00
105.00
8.70
91.30
2
10.50
110.25
16.64
83.36
3
11.03
115.76
23.88
76.12
4
11.58
121.55
30.50
69.50
10
15.51
162.89
59.74
40.26
20
25.27
265.33
83.79
16.21
50
109.21
1,146.74
98.94
1.06
100
1,252.39
13,150.13
99.99
0.01
Assumptions
1.
Dividends increase at 5% per year compounded.
2.
Capitalization rate is 15%.

16.

PA

DIV1
$10

$100.00
r
0.10

PB

DIV1
$5

$83.33
rg
0.10 0 .04

100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00

PC

DIV1 DIV2 DIV3 DIV4 DIV5 DIV6 DIV7

1

1
2
3
4
5
6
1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 0.10 1.10 6

PC

5.00 6.00 7.20 8.64 10.37 12.44 12.44

1

$104.50
1
2
3
4
5
6
1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 0.10 1.10 6

At a capitalization rate of 10%, Stock C is the most valuable.

For a capitalization rate of 7%, the calculations are similar.
The results are:
PA = $142.86
PB = $166.67
PC = $156.48
Therefore, Stock B is the most valuable.

17.

Total

a.

P0 DIV 0

DIV1
$1.35 1.0275
$1.35
$21.90
rg
0.095 0 .0275

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Chapter 04 - The Value of Common Stocks

b.

First, compute the real discount rate as follows:

(1 + rnominal) = (1 + rreal) (1 + inflation rate)
1.095 = (1 + rreal) 1.0275
(1 + rreal) = (1.095/1.0275) 1 = .0657 = 6.57%
In real terms, g = 0. Therefore:

P0 DIV 0

18.

a.

DIV1
$1.35
$1.35
$21.90
rg
0.0657

Plowback ratio = 1 payout ratio = 1.0 0.5 = 0.5

Dividend growth rate = g= Plowback ratio ROE = 0.5 0.14 = 0.07
Next, compute EPS0 as follows:
ROE = EPS0 /Book equity per share
0.14 = EPS0 /$50 EPS0 = $7.00
Therefore: DIV0 = payout ratio EPS0 = 0.5 $7.00 = $3.50
EPS and dividends for subsequent years are:

Year
0
1
2
3
4
5

EPS
$7.00
$7.00 1.07 = $7.4900
$7.00 1.072 = $8.0143
$7.00 1.073 = $8.5753
$7.00 1.074 = $9.1756
$7.00 1.074 1.023 = $9.3866

DIV
$7.00 0.5 = $3.50
$7.4900 0.5 = $3.50 1.07 = $3.7450
$8.0143 0.5 = $3.50 1.072 = $4.0072
$8.5753 0.5 = $3.50 1.073 = $4.2877
$9.1756 0.5 = $3.50 1.074 = $4.5878
$9.3866 0.5 = $3.50 1.074 1.023 = $4.6933

EPS and dividends for year 5 and subsequent years grow at 2.3% per
year, as indicated by the following calculation:
Dividend growth rate = g = Plowback ratio ROE = (1 0.08) 0.115 = 0.023

b.

P0

DIV 3
DIV1
DIV 2
DIV 4
1
DIV 5

1
2
3
4
4
1.115
1.115
1.115
1.115
0.115 1.115

3.745
4.007 4.288 4.588
4.693
1

1
2
3
4
4
1.115
1.115
1.115
1.115
0.115 - 0.023 1.10

$45.65

The last term in the above calculation is dependent on the payout ratio
and the growth rate after year 4.

r
19.

a.

DIV1
8.5
g
0.075 0.1175 11.75%
P0
200

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Chapter 04 - The Value of Common Stocks

b.

g = Plowback ratio ROE = (1 0.5) 0.12 = 0.06 = 6.0%

The stated payout ratio and ROE are inconsistent with the security
analysts forecasts. With g = 6.0% (and assuming r remains at
11.75%) then:

P0

DIV1
8.5

147.83 pesos
r g 0.1175 - 0.06

20.

The security analysts forecast is wrong because it assumes a perpetual constant

growth rate of 15% when, in fact, growth will continue for two years at this rate
and then there will be no further growth in EPS or dividends. The value of the
companys stock is the present value of the expected dividend of $2.30 to be
paid in 2020 plus the present value of the perpetuity of $2.65 beginning in 2021.
Therefore, the actual expected rate of return is the solution for r in the following
equation:
$2.30 $2.65
$21.75

1 r r(1 r)
Solving algebraically (using the quadratic formula) or by trial and error, we
find that: r = 0.1201= 12.01%

21.

a.

An Incorrect Application. Hotshot Semiconductors earnings and

dividends have grown by 30 percent per year since the firms founding ten
years ago. Current stock price is $100, and next years dividend is
projected at $1.25. Thus:

DIV1
1.25
g
0 .30 0 .3125 31.25%
P0
100

This is wrong because the formula assumes perpetual growth; it is not

possible for Hotshot to grow at 30 percent per year forever.
A Correct Application. The formula might be correctly applied to the Old
Faithful Railroad, which has been growing at a steady 5 percent rate for
decades. Its EPS1 = $10, DIV1 = $5, and P0 = $100. Thus:
r

DIV1
5
g
0 .05 0 .10 10.0%
P0
100

Even here, you should be careful not to blindly project past growth into the
future. If Old Faithful hauls coal, an energy crisis could turn it into a
growth stock.
b.

An Incorrect Application. Hotshot has current earnings of $5.00 per share.

Thus:

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Chapter 04 - The Value of Common Stocks

EPS1
5

0 .05 5.0%
P0
100
This is too low to be realistic. The reason P0 is so high relative to earnings
is not that r is low, but rather that Hotshot is endowed with valuable growth
opportunities. Suppose PVGO = $60:
P0

EPS1
PVGO
r

5
100 60
r

Therefore, r = 12.5%
A Correct Application. Unfortunately, Old Faithful has run out of valuable
growth opportunities. Since PVGO = 0:
P0

EPS1
PVGO
r

100

10
0
r

Therefore, r = 10.0%

Share price

22.

EPS1 NPV

r
rg

Therefore:

EPS 1
r
EPS1
r

NPV
(r 0.15)
NPV
(r 0.08)

The statement in the question implies the following:

EPS1

NPV
(r 0.08)

NPV

NPV
(r 0.08) (r 0.15)

Rearranging, we have:
NPV
r
NPV
r

(r 0.15) EPS1 (r 0.08) EPS1

a.

NPV < NPV, everything else equal.

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EPS1
NPV

r
(r 0.15)

Chapter 04 - The Value of Common Stocks

b.

23.

(r - 0.15) > (r - 0.08), everything else equal.

c.

NPV
NPV

(r 0.15) (r 0.08)

d.

r
r

EPS1 EPS1

a.

Growth-Techs stock price should be:

P
b.

, everything else equal.

$0.50 $0.60
$1.15
1
$1.24
$23.81

2
3
3
(1.12) (1.12)
(1.12)
(1.12) (0.12 0 .08)

The horizon value contributes:

PV(PH )

c.

, everything else equal.

1
$1.24

$22.07
3
(1.12) (0.12 0 .08)

Without PVGO, P3 would equal earnings for year 4 capitalized at

12 percent:
$2.49
$20.75
0.12

Therefore: PVGO = $31.00 $20.75 = $10.25

d.

The PVGO of $10.25 is lost at year 3. Therefore, the current stock price of
$23.81 will decrease by:
$10.25
$7.30
(1.12) 3

The new stock price will be: $23.81 $7.30 = $16.51

24.

a.

Here we can apply the standard growing perpetuity formula with

DIV1 = $4, g = 0.04 and P0 = $100:

DIV1
$4
g
0 .04 0 .08 8.0%
P0
$100

The $4 dividend is 60 percent of earnings. Thus:

EPS1 = 4/0.6 = $6.67
Also:

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Chapter 04 - The Value of Common Stocks

P0

EPS1
PVGO
r
$100

$6.67
PVGO
0.08

PVGO = $16.63
b.

DIV1 will decrease to: 0.20 6.67 = $1.33

However, by plowing back 80 percent of earnings, CSI will grow by
8 percent per year for five years. Thus:
Year
DIVt

1
1.33

2
1.44

3
1.55

4
1.68

5
1.81

6
5.88

EPSt

6.67

7.20

7.78

8.40

9.07

9.80

7, 8 . . .
Continued
growth at
4 percent

Note that DIV6 increases sharply as the firm switches back to a 60 percent
payout policy. Forecasted stock price in year 5 is:
P5

DIV6
5.88

$147
r g 0.08 0 .04

Therefore, CSIs stock price will increase to:

P0

25.

a.

1.33 1.44
1.55
1.68 1.81 147

$106.21
2
3
1.08 1.08
1.08
1.08 4
1.08 5

First, we use the following Excel spreadsheet to compute net income (or
dividends) for 2009 through 2013:

Production (million barrels)

Price of oil/barrel
Costs/barrel

2009
1.8000
65
25

2010
1.6740
60
25

Revenue
Expenses
Net Income (= Dividends)

117,000,000
45,000,000
72,000,000

100,440,000
41,850,000
58,590,000

2011
1.5568
55
25
85,625,100
38,920,500
46,704,600

2012
1.4478
50
25
72,392,130
36,196,065
36,196,065

2013
1.3465
52.5
25
70,690,915
33,662,340
37,028,574

Next, we compute the present value of the dividends to be paid in 2010,

2011 and 2012:
P0

58,590,000 46,704,600 36,196,065

1.09
1.09 2
1.09 3
$121,012,624

The present value of dividends to be paid in 2013 and subsequent years

can be computed by recognizing that both revenues and expenses can
be treated as growing perpetuities. Since production will decrease 7%

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Chapter 04 - The Value of Common Stocks

per year while costs per barrel remain constant, the growth rate of
expenses is: 7.0%
To compute the growth rate of revenues, we use the fact that production
decreases 7% per year while the price of oil increases 5% per year, so
that the growth rate of revenues is:
[1.05 (1 0.07)] 1 = 0.0235 = 2.35%
Therefore, the present value (in 2012) of revenues beginning in 2013 is:
PV2012

70,690,915
$622,827,4 45
0.09 - (-0.0235)

Similarly, the present value (in 2012) of expenses beginning in 2013 is:
PV2012

33,662,340
$210,389,6 25
0.09 - (-0.07)

Subtracting these present values gives the present value (in 2012) of
net income, and then discounting back three years to 2009, we find
that the present value of dividends paid in 2013 and subsequent years
is: $318,477,671
The total value of the company is:
$121,012,624 + $318,477,671 = $439,490,295
Since there are 7,000,000 shares outstanding, the present value per
share is:
$439,490,295 / 7,000,000 = $62.78
b.

EPS2009 = $72,000,000/7,000,000 = $10.29

EPS/P = $10.29/$62.78 = 0.164

26.

[Note: In this problem, the long-term growth rate, in year 9 and all later years,
should be 8%.]
The free cash flow for years 1 through 10 is computed in the following table:

Asset value
Earnings
Investment
Free cash flow
Earnings growth
from previous
period

1
10.00
1.20
2.00
-0.80

2
12.00
1.44
2.40
-0.96

3
14.40
1.73
2.88
-1.15

4
17.28
2.07
3.46
-1.38

20.0%

20.0%

20.0%

20.0%

4-9

Year
5
6
20.74
23.12
2.49
2.77
2.38
2.54
0.10
0.23
20.0%

11.5%

7
25.66
3.08
2.69
0.38

8
28.36
3.40
2.27
1.13

9
30.63
3.68
2.45
1.23

10
33.08
3.97
2.65
1.32

11.0%

10.5%

8.0%

8.0%

Chapter 04 - The Value of Common Stocks

Computing the present value of the free cash flows, following the approach from
Section 4.5, we find that the present value of the free cash flows occurring in
years 1 through 7 is:
- 0.80 - 0.96 - 1.15 - 1.38 0.10
0.23
0.38

1
2
3
4
5
6
1.10
1.10
1.10 1.10
1.10 1.10
1.10 7 -$2.94

PV

The present value of the growing perpetuity that begins in year 8 is:

1
1.1343
$29.10

7
(1.10) (0.10 0 .08)

PV

Therefore, the present value of the business is:

-$2.94 + $29.10 = $26.16 million
27.

From the equation given in the problem, it follows that:

P0
ROE (1 b)
1 b

BVPS r (b ROE) (r / ROE) b

Consider three cases:

ROE < r (P0/BVPS) < 1
ROE = r (P0/BVPS) = 1
ROE > r (P0/BVPS) > 1
Thus, as ROE increases, the price-to-book ratio also increases, and, when
ROE = r, price-to-book equals one.
28.

Assume the portfolio value given, $100 million, is the value as of the end of the
first year. Then, assuming constant growth, the value of the contract is given by
the first payment (0.5 percent of portfolio value) divided by (r g). Also:
r = dividend yield + growth rate
Hence:
r growth rate = dividend yield = 0.05 = 5.0%
Thus, the value of the contract, V, is:
V

0.005 $100 million

$10 million
0.05

For stocks with a 4 percent yield:

r growth rate = dividend yield = 0.04 = 4.0%
Thus, the value of the contract, V, is:
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Chapter 04 - The Value of Common Stocks

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Chapter 04 - The Value of Common Stocks

29.

0.005 $100 million

$12.5 million
0.04

If existing stockholders buy newly issued shares to cover the $3.6 million
financing requirement, then the value of Concatco equals the discounted
value of the cash flows (as computed in Section 4.5): $18.8 million.
Since the existing stockholders own 1 million shares, the value per
share is $18.80.
Now suppose instead that the $3.6 million comes from new investors, who buy
shares each year at a fair price. Since the new investors buy shares at a fair
price, the value of the existing stockholders shares must remain at $18.8
million. Since existing stockholders expect to earn 10% on their investment,
the expected value of their shares in year 6 is:
$18.8 million (1.10) 6 = $33.39 million
The total value of the firm in year 6 is:
$1.59 million / (0.10 0.06) = $39.75 million
Compensation to new stockholders in year 6 is:
$39.75 million $33.39 million = $6.36 million
Since existing stockholders own 1 million shares, then in year 6, new
stockholders will own:
($6.36 million / $33.39 million) 1,000,000 = 190,300 shares
Share price in year 6 equals:
$39.75 million / 1.1903 million = $33.39

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